Closing Bell Overtime: Stocks Surge After Democrats Retake Both Chambers of Congress 11/4/26

Qualcomm

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jay Goldberg · Seaport Research PartnersBearish

  Qualcomm's data center AI push is not yet credible; the market shouldn't believe its AI story.

  Qualcomm's data center revenue guidance of about $650 million for the December quarter, from its first AI product with Amazon, is roughly in line with consensus and barely offsets declines in the slowing smartphone business, so there was no upside to the new business. Goldberg thinks the Amazon win is a capacity deal and small wins that will not give the business staying power. He says this is Qualcomm's third attempt at the data center, after two that did not go well, so it has a lot to prove before investors credit it. He acknowledges that AI sales cycles take years and deserve time, but he lacks faith in the business's sustainability and says the street is not ready to believe the AI story.

  “I don't think the street is ready to believe their AI story yet.”at 38:00

• Jay Goldberg · Seaport Research PartnersBearish

  Qualcomm's core smartphone chip business faces share loss and a worse downturn next year.

  Smartphones are still the vast majority of Qualcomm's business, and Goldberg worries management is taking its eye off that core. Qualcomm's customers are diversifying away from it: all five of the top five handset makers design their own application processors that compete with Qualcomm, and three of the top five make their own modems, the core of Qualcomm's business. He expects the smartphone business to get much worse next year because of weak consumer demand, and sees a real risk of share loss on top of that. He thinks Qualcomm has good engineering talent but is distracted by other bets.

  “smartphone business is gonna get much worse next year just on consumer demand, plus there's this risk of Qualcomm share loss.”at 39:59

Arista Networks

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Amit Daryanani · Evercore ISIBullish

  Arista benefits as AI networks must be upgraded for efficiency when greenfield capacity is harder to add.

  Daryanani argued efficiency becomes more valuable as adding new greenfield data center capacity gets harder. Upgrades become more likely as operators need to upgrade their networks. He said a company like Arista will do really well because of this. He also cited Arista as a name that can help offset the capacity slowdown through efficiency gains.

  “to the extent you have to upgrade your network, a company like Arista and Cisco do really well.”at 27:05

Cisco Systems

• Amit Daryanani · Evercore ISIBullish

  Cisco benefits as AI networks must be upgraded for efficiency when greenfield capacity is harder to add.

  Daryanani argued efficiency becomes more valuable as adding new greenfield data center capacity gets harder. Operators will have to upgrade their networks as a result, and he said a company like Cisco will do really well from that upgrade cycle, alongside Arista.

  “to the extent you have to upgrade your network, a company like Arista and Cisco do really well.”at 27:05

Apple

Across the shows: 48 speakers in other episodes, 55 bullish and 37 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Amit Daryanani · Evercore ISIBullish

  Apple could get relief on memory costs if memory supply and pricing slow down.

  Daryanani said Apple has struggled with memory as an input cost. If there is a real memory slowdown from data center capacity constraints, Apple could potentially get relief on costs. This is a conditional view that depends on a memory slowdown actually materializing.

  “A company like Apple that has actually struggled with memory as input costs could potentially get reprieved if you truly have a memory slowdown over here.”at 28:15

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 80 speakers in other episodes, 23 bullish and 85 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Amit Daryanani · Evercore ISIBearish

  CoreWeave faces delays of six months or more on capacity additions, given Texas and Georgia exposure.

  Daryanani cited CoreWeave, which has 1.7 gigawatts online and needs to add about 1.2 to 1.3 gigawatts next year. He said some of that will be delayed by six to twelve months depending on what is already in the works. There will be a slowdown in new capacity additions. For neoclouds, the focus is how much capacity can be brought online right now. Anyone with significant Texas or Georgia exposure will face at least a six-month, possibly longer, delay after the election results.

  “anyone that has a lot of Texas or Georgia exposure will have at least a six month, maybe a longer delay right now.”at 29:21

Vertiv Holdings Co

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 6 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Amit Daryanani · Evercore ISIBullish

  Vertiv helps offset data center capacity slowdown via efficiency gains in cooling and power management.

  Daryanani said physical infrastructure such as cooling and power management becomes more relevant as efficiency upgrades matter more and new greenfield capacity gets harder to add. He said names like Vertiv can help offset the capacity slowdown through efficiency gains, even as the market sold off all AI infrastructure names indiscriminately.

  “there are certain names like an Arista, like a Vertiv, that can help you with efficiency as a way to offset it.”at 29:21

D.R. Horton

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Alan Ratner · Zelman, a Walker & Dunlop CompanyBullish

  D.R. Horton is well positioned if rates fall and Middle East tensions ease; entry-level exposure is the play.

  Entry-level focused builders have been hit hardest over the last six to eight weeks because they are most exposed to the affordability-constrained buyer. If rates fall meaningfully and the Iran conflict ends in the next several months, those are the names to buy. D.R. Horton, the largest builder in the country, is exposed to that buyer and is well positioned even if the broader market doesn't rebound significantly. Ratner says he has not yet seen enough to convince himself of the rates and conflict view, so this is conditional on that thesis.

  “thinking of a company like D. R. Horton, for example, which is the largest builder in the country... And, you know, frankly, even if the market doesn't rebound significantly, they're still very well positioned.”at 45:25

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Scott Chronert · Citi Research

  Market reads capex cuts as constructive for AI compute supply-demand; data center build beyond 2027 remains uncertain.

  Chronert said Citi expected an extreme Democratic Senate win to pressure the AI trade, and the semiconductor pullback was partly right. He argued the market is treating some scaling back of capex ambitions as constructive for the ongoing supply-demand setup for AI compute. The market had priced '26 and '27 earnings growth tied to the data center build-out but has lacked confidence in '28 to 2030. Moratoria could lead to project cancellations or only push-outs, which remains unresolved. The Texas gubernatorial race was mission-critical to the AI moratorium push-out. He expects the sentiment shift to help near term but says fundamentals will not change by year end.

  “the market is also interpreting some scaling back of CapEx ambitions as actually quite constructive for the ongoing supply demand for AI compute setup.”at 9:34

• Amit Daryanani · Evercore ISI

  Greenfield AI data center capacity will get harder to add; hyperscalers retrofit faster and efficiency upgrades gain value.

  Daryanani said the market sold all data center names because building new AI capacity will be harder. Hyperscalers and firms with capacity already online have an advantage because they can retrofit it for AI much faster. Efficiency becomes more valuable, so network, cooling and power-management upgrades matter more. Adding greenfield capacity gets more difficult, but AI is not captive to US geography. Capacity can be built internationally quickly, which he says could take off in a bigger way. He thinks the market overreacted, as it has sold all AI infrastructure names, period.

  “adding new greenfield capacity gets more difficult, efficiency upgrades start to matter more for the world right now.”at 27:20

US stock market outlook

• Scott Chronert · Citi Research

  Sentiment shift on oil, inflation and rates can lift year-end S&P, but fundamentals must catch up.

  Chronert said the triumvirate of oil prices, inflation concerns and interest rates has been the key to reaching higher year-end S&P prices. A roughly 10% drop in oil, and the market pricing out one of three expected Fed hikes, drove a sharp sentiment shift. Cautious positioning had become deeply embedded, so repositioning has room to run. The shift can run for a while and is probably good for the year-end trade. He cautioned that sentiment must eventually translate into fundamental change, which he does not see on the immediate horizon. Implementation of policy solutions is still needed.

  “sentiment shift can run for a while, probably good for the year end trade. Be careful, though. Sentiment has to translate eventually into fundamental changes. We don't see that on the immediate horizon.”at 9:34

US elections & politics

• Brian Gardner · Stifel Financial

  Washington is heading into gridlock; Democrats will extract only limited wins via spending and debt leverage.

  Gardner argued the bipartisan rhetoric after the election is similar to eight years ago, when the government shut down for 35 days six weeks later. He expects a contentious two years with little getting done. Democrats will have leverage on government spending bills and the debt ceiling and can push priorities such as clean energy, credit card interest rate caps, or reversing social spending cuts from the big beautiful bill. Overall, he expects what can be accomplished in the new Congress to be restrained. He said investors who think a path to bipartisanship exists are mistaken.

  “We are going into a period of gridlock despite some of the happy talk of today... I think it's generally going to be restrained of what can be accomplished in the new congress.”at 15:10

Stablecoins & crypto policy

• Brian Gardner · Stifel Financial

  Crypto market-structure legislation is effectively dead; regulators will set rules, facing court challenges for years.

  Gardner said the CLARITY Act is effectively done because Democrats in the Senate will not deal with Republicans in a lame-duck session. Sherrod Brown will likely be seated in December, so Republicans lose a seat before year end. A Democratic-led deal next year that is palatable to industry and Republicans is possible but unlikely. Regulation will therefore fall to the SEC and CFTC, which are already building a framework under current authority. Its durability is questionable because courts may rule the agencies overstepped, and this will play out over several years. He also sees room for a bipartisan deal on commission seats, since the CFTC has only one commissioner, though he would rule out the Fed.

  “I think clarity is done... up to the regulators to create from their current authorities some new regulatory framework... This is gonna play out over several years.”at 16:29

US housing

• Alan Ratner · Zelman, a Walker & Dunlop Company

  Housing rebound depends on rates and oil, not tariff rollbacks; affordability constraints won't ease soon.

  Ratner argues the sector mainly turns on two things: mortgage rates and oil prices. Both rose because of the Middle East conflict, so a resolution could help, but the market was not roaring back earlier in the year before those headwinds. Tariff rollbacks would matter less. Builders used their scale to push tariff costs back onto trades, suppliers and manufacturers, so the costs did not reach new home prices, which have been falling. Labor and construction costs have also not been a headwind, despite the data center wave and tariffs. Demand and affordability are the constraints, and he doesn't expect them to change without a big pullback in rates.

  “No impact may be a little harsh. ... it's gonna come down to two things. Our rate's gonna come down, and our oil price is gonna recede.”at 41:29