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Jan van Eck: latest market views
VanEck
Summary
Jan van Eck is CEO of VanEck, the global investment manager and major ETF sponsor, which he joined in the early 1990s and has led as CEO since 2010, and he founded its ETF business in 2006.
Chorus has 36 views from Jan van Eck across 2 episodes on CNBC Power Lunch and Thoughtful Money since October 21, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Anthropic, Bitcoin, NVIDIA and Vistra; bearish on CoreWeave.
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Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Nvidia's growth slowdown would sharply cut S&P 500 earnings growth, and semis slowing would cut it further.
Van Eck argues the chip sector matters a lot to overall index earnings. S&P 500 earnings growth for next year is expected at 17.5%. If Nvidia's growth is simply halved, S&P earnings growth falls to about 15%. If semiconductors as a whole have growth halved next year, S&P growth falls to about 12.5%. He concludes that what happens with semis is very important to the overall market, since the group carries a large share of index earnings growth.
“So earnings growth for the S and P next year is expected to be up 17.5%. If Nvidia just slows its growth by half, the overall S and P earnings goes from 17.5% down to 15%.”at 27:00
CNBC Power Lunch: Power Lunch: NVIDIA CEO Exit, Tech Volatility and Crypto Pressure ·
NVIDIAUncertain
The Nvidia chip-diversion problem is a policy question needing a transparent investigation; company appears compliant.
Van Eck argues the Nvidia story has moved beyond the company into a governance and policy question. He points to export restrictions on chips sold to Singapore companies that the Commerce Department had approved, which he suggests may have been diverted, and asks whether Nvidia was a criminal enterprise, which he calls the toughest question. He says whatever the internal investigation finds, Washington needs a bipartisan and transparent investigation of what happened, who knew it, and who at the board, executive and administration levels was aware. He still says he thinks Nvidia is a compliant company and is not making accusations, so the outcome is unresolved. He also says this started in the spring and there is more to come.
“To me, the NVIDIA story is not really anymore within NVIDIA. I think it's a larger governance question, meaning a policy question.”at 30:03
CNBC Power Lunch: Power Lunch: NVIDIA CEO Exit, Tech Volatility and Crypto Pressure ·
Higher 10-year yields now compete with equities, squeezing the rest of client portfolios toward bonds.
The main Q3 development was the rise in interest rates, especially the 10-year. That makes yields relatively attractive: high-yield munis are in the high single digits, against annualized equity returns of about 8% a year. As a result, investors are shifting part of their portfolios toward fixed income. Van Eck's funds reflect this, with four of the five top inflow funds over the last month being fixed income funds.
“that, to me, is squeezing the rest of client portfolios because now yields are getting to be relatively attractive, especially... high yield munis and things like that are in the high single digits. That's competing with annualized equity returns of 8% a year.”at 2:13
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
US fiscal policy remains stimulative and is unlikely to change after the midterms.
Government spending is still high and still at least one foot on the gas pedal, down from two feet a couple of years after COVID, but still pretty stimulative. The midterms are unlikely to change this. A Democratic win in either chamber would require both parties to agree to contract fiscal policy, which is unlikely. Fiscal policy is also helping the US economy, at least in the short term.
“government spending is still high and is still at least one foot on the gas pedal... it's still pretty stimulative. So that is probably not going to change with the midterms.”at 3:38
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Higher mortgage rates are squeezing the US housing market.
Mortgage rates have risen with the 10-year yield and are, in Van Eck's view, definitely squeezing the housing market. This is one of the reasons Van Eck describes monetary policy as neutral rather than stimulative.
“mortgage rates are definitely squeezing the housing market.”at 4:38
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Van Eck is structurally underweight bonds on deficits but has bought bonds as yields look attractive short term.
Van Eck is structurally underweight bonds and fixed income because of its deficit concerns. Bonds look more attractive in the shorter term, so Van Eck's models began buying bonds last week. The short-term case rests on the higher yields described earlier, while the long-term underweight rests on US fiscal deficits.
“We are structurally underweight bonds and fixed income because of our deficit concerns. But they're more attractive here in the shorter term.”at 6:13
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Skeptics of tech are wrong; stepping out of tech has been very expensive over one and two years.
The S&P 500 is far more tech-dominated than it used to be, and Van Eck is overweight tech relative to it. Investors who listen to the naysayers on Nvidia and tech, or who step out of the tech megatrend, leave a lot of money on the table. That has been very expensive year to date and over the one- and two-year periods since ChatGPT launched.
“The normal equity benchmark, S and P 500, is very much more tech dominant than it used to be. We at VanEck are actually overweight tech above that... you are leaving a lot of money on the table.”at 7:33
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
AI compute demand can be modeled from token usage, growing about 25% a year after year one.
Van Eck's own token usage curve shows individual users' token use rising about eightfold from their first two months to twelve months later, then about 25% a year. Angus Schillington applied that curve to the rest of the market, and the result closely matched the industry's projected demand. Van Eck models training held flat as a conservative assumption, so demand upside is possible. The approach is uncertain but lets the demand side of AI be modeled, not just supply.
“from when your first two months to twelve months later, your token usage goes up like eight times. And then after that, it goes up at sort of like 25% a year.”at 13:23
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
NVIDIABullish
Nvidia's valuation has fallen sharply and it is now much more attractive.
Semiconductors are up about 50% year to date, and Nvidia is up about 16% year to date, lagging the sector but not breaking its uptrend. Its valuation has come down dramatically, making the stock much more attractive. Van Eck has argued this before. The price action is evidence of the valuation reset, not of a broken trend.
“NVIDIA is up about 16% year to date, and its valuation has come down dramatically... it's become a lot more attractive.”at 15:39
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
VistraBullish
Vistra's long-term contracts make it well positioned, and its share price now looks attractively valued.
Vistra is an independent power producer with long-term contracts that put it in a strong position to supply energy, which people need, whatever happens with data center concerns. Power-related trades corrected this year, partly because they were overvalued. Vistra's prices have come down to more attractive valuations.
“Here's a second company, Vistra, which is an independent power producer... they have the contract, long term contracts are in a really good position of having energy, which is what people need... the prices have just come down to more attractive valuations.”at 16:42
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave's slide reflects the bond squeeze and the weaker financials of neocloud compute providers.
CoreWeave was the poster child of the prior week's selloff. Van Eck describes it as a compute provider with less robust financials, and sees the drop as a possible reflection of the Q3 bond squeeze and higher interest rates. Van Eck also notes that CoreWeave and Oracle fell about 50% in late 2025 and that this kind of price discipline has happened before. The bearish read is tentative.
“the poster child of last week, which is CoreWeave... compute providers with less robust financials.”at 17:11
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
AI disruption of consulting is overstated, since AI doesn't unemploy people tied to software projects.
Software and adjacent consulting firms that implement software projects at big companies are among the first industries AI is disrupting. Accenture is a leader in that area, and its stock has been destroyed. But AI doesn't unemploy the whole world or specifically the people directly related to software. AI has three components, data, software and people, and companies are shifting toward data, which still needs people.
“And Accenture is a leader in that. And you can see how its stock got destroyed... it turns out that AI doesn't unemploy the whole world, right? And it doesn't specifically unemploy the people who are directly related to software.”at 18:33
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
AnthropicBullish
Anthropic's positioning on corporate desktops as the AI interface is very valuable.
Corporate desktops are valuable real estate, so getting the AI interface there is worth fighting for. Van Eck would rather use Claude as the interface for its Microsoft suite, asking questions about calendars or email. Claude is connected to Van Eck's databases. Replacing it is possible but takes time, and people don't want to spend that time learning equivalent software. This is a personal observation from using the product, not a financial projection.
“if a software company like Anthropic can get that positioning on our corporate desktops, that's really valuable.”at 27:04
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Enterprise AI adoption & AI software
Anthropic's push into enterprises has corporate America spending on AI, the Q1 breakthrough.
Jan argues the end consumer for AI is corporate America, and that the breakthrough of Q1 was Anthropic plugging into enterprises, after which companies said they wanted to spend money on AI. He uses this to argue that AI revenue reflects real corporate demand, though he gives no metric and the argument is brief.
“Anthropic plugged into corporate America, and corporate America is saying, I want to spend money on AI.”at 39:05
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Private-market AI trade is less disciplined than public markets, with both feet on the gas.
Jan says he has no hard metric but believes there is more discipline in public markets than in private markets, where the AI trade has both feet on the gas. He says he dislikes using the word bubble, that this could change, and that there is less discipline in private markets, which will keep changing. The evidence is his judgment rather than data.
“there's more discipline in the public markets, I think, in a way than in the private markets right now.”at 39:38
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
NVIDIABullish
Nvidia is the core of AI hardware with a durable moat and strong cash returns, unlike past cycles.
Jan calls Nvidia the heart of the AI hardware ecosystem and says it is not the prior-cycle chipmaker that sold mainly into gaming or bitcoin mining. He says it was perfectly placed when the AI wave arrived and now functions like the IBM of that system, with software and other moats protecting it. He cites cash generation, dividends and buybacks, and extended guidance a year out as the right signals. He contrasts it with memory chip makers, which he treats as far less mature.
“I consider to be the heart of the AI kind of hardware ecosystem.”at 40:57
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Memory chip makers are still young and should not be overvalued; cautionary email sent in Q2.
Jan says Van Eck sent clients a cautionary email in Q2 on memory chips, an area of past pain for tech investors. He contrasts Nvidia, which he likens to a mature 21-year-old, with memory chip companies, which he says are still like teenagers. He says he would not overvalue them, though he hedges that the outcome is still to be seen.
“...the memory chip company, a lot of em are 21 but they are still like a teenager, you know, and I wouldn't, you know, over overvalue them.”at 42:28
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
AI trade's big-picture trend is intact; Q3 showed nothing systemic that would end it.
Jan says the big-picture AI trend looks the same, with a lot of discipline in public markets and less in private markets, which will keep changing. He argues nothing so systemic happened in Q3 that would make him call the trend over. He also says that underweighting tech or semis has been expensive for investors who got it wrong.
“The big picture trend looks the same. There is a lot of discipline in the public markets. ...There's nothing so systemic that happened in Q3 that would lead me to say this thing, this trend is over.”at 43:04
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Blue Owl CapitalUncertain
Blue Owl gave back its Q2 rally as rising yields squeezed it; dividend still healthy, so holding.
Jan bought private credit manager equities in Q2 and Blue Owl rose about 30%, from roughly $9 to over $12. He says bond yields squeezed it and it gave back all of that gain. He did not anticipate the rise in the 10-year, and Blue Owl saw more redemption requests on one of its biggest funds. He is not selling his personal position and says the equity still pays a healthy dividend, so holders get paid to wait.
“But again, squeezed by bonds, I would argue. They gave back all of that value.”at 45:22
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Private credit pressure is mainly rate-driven, not collapsing holdings; credit marks will lag.
Jan argues the pressure comes mainly from higher yields. At 9-10% yields in a zero-rate environment, private credit looked attractive, but with the 10-year above 5%, that value proposition is diminished and puts pressure on the rest of portfolios. He says regulatory scrutiny and SaaS pressure were the first-half fundamentals, which he thinks are largely priced in. Loans marked below about 80 cents rose in the first half and are settling, and credit marks lag because loans are not marked to market, as with commercial real estate after COVID.
“The bond squeeze, all of these value propositions, it's one thing to offer 9%, 10% yields in a zero interest rate environment. It's different if the ten year bond is offering over 5%”at 46:36
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Dollar holding firm against developed-market peers shows no broad selling of US assets.
Jan says the most important thing he watches in the bond sell-off is dollar strength. If investors were really selling the US, they would be selling the dollar too. The dollar has held strong against other developed-market currencies, which makes him less worried about the recent market move.
“the most important thing that I look at ... is just the strength of the dollar. So if people were really selling The United States, they'd be selling the U.S. Dollar as well.”at 50:20
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
The 10-year yield rise reflects strong nominal growth, not inflation or credit fears.
Jan argues the rise in yields comes from economic growth, not inflation or credit concerns. Nominal growth, shown on his chart, has risen alongside the 10-year, and strong growth raises credit demand and rates. Real yields are driven by a booming economy, not inflation. He says the oil-yield link was a temporary correlation, since bonds did not sell off in the early months of the Iran war. He also says bond volatility has not been extreme, and that media coverage overstated the move.
“And it's a very simple concept, which is if economic growth is strong, then there's going to be more demand for credit and that would bring interest rates higher.”at 51:25
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Budget deficit hit $2 trillion as tariff revenue fell short; a long-term problem.
Jan says the deficit as a share of GDP fell in Trump's first hybrid year, but then moved the wrong way. Tax revenue came in below expectations, mostly from lost tariff revenue, while outlays still rose, pushing the deficit to $2 trillion. He calls it a big long-term problem whose timing he cannot predict, possibly five or ten years, and says it is why he is the biggest bond bear, though government spending is not what is driving yields now.
“Revenue was less. Tax revenue was less than expected. Most of that was tariff, loss of tariff revenue and then outlays were still up.”at 57:07
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Foreign buyers shifting to home bonds reflects better local yields, not lost faith in US Treasuries.
Jan explains that Japanese buyers once bought US-hedged bonds for a higher yield. With higher global rates, they now prefer Japanese bonds over hedged US dollar bonds, so US bonds compete in a global market. Adam frames it as buyers taking a better home deal, and Jan agrees, calling it grocery economics rather than judgment. He also notes China has let its Treasuries mature, to about half its 2013 peak.
“now with higher interest rates globally, this Japanese buyer would rather just buy Japanese bonds ... than hedged US dollar bonds.”at 58:10
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Ten-year very bullish on gold; ETF buying suggests early innings of a long-term bull market.
Jan has a ten-year bullish view on gold. He says technical indicators he watches, such as ETF buying, suggest the market is in early innings of a long-term bull market. He says gold corrected after a huge run to all-time highs earlier this year and that the correction has been disciplined, with the price holding support. He cites record non-central-bank Chinese gold buying that is double last year's pace, which he reads as smart buying into weakness and a safety allocation.
“I am ten year very bullish on gold. And I think that all the technicals I look at, like ETF buying or whatever, suggest we're in early, early innings of a long term bull market there.”at 1:01:54
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Gold miners paid off their debt and aren't finding new mines, so existing reserves are valuable.
Jan notes gold miners carried huge net debt in the zero-rate era. As gold prices rallied, they paid it off and are no longer leveraged players. Production is rising, but miners are not finding new gold mines or spending heavily on exploration, so the assets existing companies own are valuable. He says energy companies have also become disciplined in spending.
“as gold prices started rallying, they've paid off all of that debt... They're just not leveraged players the way they used to be.”at 1:02:37
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
US shale output gains of 8-10 million barrels a day are unlikely to repeat as demand grows.
Jan says US oil production rose eight to ten million barrels a day during the shale boom. He thinks the shale cycle will eventually run its course, so that growth is unlikely to repeat. Global oil demand keeps rising, which he sees as a bullish factor for oil.
“...we're at some point going to reach the end of the shale cycle. So, US oil production has gone up eight, nine, 10,000,000 barrels a day and that's unlikely to repeat.”at 1:05:06
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Energy equities ignore higher 2027 oil prices, and buybacks lift shareholder yield to double digits.
Jan says commodity prices for 2027 are still high, but energy equities are not pricing that in. Energy companies pay dividends of only 2-4%, which looks unexciting with a 5% rate world. But they are buying back large amounts of stock, so dividends plus buybacks, or shareholder yield, is in the high single digits to low double digits for companies Van Eck owns. Investors who only look at dividend yield miss two-thirds of the story.
“But what they're really doing with their huge cash flow is they're buying back a ton of shares and that's what's in yellow.”at 1:06:17
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
Advisors are far underweight real assets versus 10-20 years ago, despite attractive trailing returns.
Jan cites a Van Eck study showing the financial advisor industry is far underweight real assets compared with ten or twenty years ago. He attributes it partly to passive investing, since energy's share of the S&P shrank as tech grew, and partly to no fresh money going into real assets and a generation of investors ignoring their returns. He says trailing three- and five-year returns are attractive, and Van Eck's real assets allocation is not gold-only.
“...financial advisor industry, generally speaking... is way underweight real assets relative to where they were ten or twenty years ago.”at 1:07:40
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
India is near the bottom of its valuation range; still a ten-year bullish trade despite bad news.
Jan calls India his worst call, hit by the Iran conflict as an energy importer, tariffs, and AI concerns since it is an IT outsourcer without native memory chip makers. Now that most investors have given up on it, valuations are at the bottom of their range. He still sees a ten-year trade on high GDP growth, India becoming the fourth major consumer market, an equity culture with hundreds of IPOs a year, and deregulation and digitization. He suggests dollar cost averaging for adventurous investors.
“now that everyone has given up on India, it's finally getting to the bottom of its valuation range.”at 1:13:53
Thoughtful Money: The Big Squeeze: High Bond Yields Now Becoming A Problem For Stocks | Jan van Eck ·
6 older views from Jan van Eck are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
Shows
- CNBC Power Lunch · 1 episode
- Thoughtful Money · 1 episode
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