S&P 500 to 8,000? A Brutal Market Reversal Ahead | Gareth Soloway

The Clorox Company

• Gareth Soloway · Verified InvestingBullish

  Clorox has fallen from $109 to about $79 onto technical support; he is bottom fishing with it.

  Historically Clorox doesn't move like this. The stock dropped from $109 to about $79 and is coming off major technical support. It is low and pays a dividend, and he is buying it along with other beaten-down names that have stood the test of time instead of chasing AI leaders.

  “I'm not chasing Nvidia up here, but I'm actually doing bottom fishing on names like Clorox and Nike and these beaten down plays that have stood the test of time, but they're so low and they pay out a dividend.”at 8:41

Valero Energy

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gareth Soloway · Verified InvestingBearish

  Valero's vertical rally looks overheated; cyclical margin compression makes it a short or sidelines name.

  Valero's chart is so vertical it looks like the hottest AI stock. Cyclically, its margins will compress when the gasoline crack spread falls relative to what it pays for crude. Because the valuation is stretched on a cyclical business, he would be short or on the sidelines rather than paying up for it.

  “I mean, Valero, which I know cyclically is going to have its margins compressed when the crack spread of gasoline and what they're paying for crude comes in.”at 12:00

NextEra Energy

• Gareth Soloway · Verified InvestingBullish

  NextEra fell from $98.50 to about $75; he is nibbling for a short-term bounce.

  Energy names have been pounded since the April highs. NextEra traded as high as $98.50 and bottomed around $75. He is nibbling and playing a shorter-term bounce on these beaten-up energy plays, buying on discount rather than staying away, in part because data centers need power.

  “So I have been nibbling on some like NEE here, NextEra Energy... I'm playing for a shorter term bounce on these that have been beaten up, these energy plays.”at 12:58

Nike

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gareth Soloway · Verified InvestingBullish

  Nike is a beaten-down dividend payer he is buying at low levels, not chasing risk.

  Nike has been beaten down, is low, and pays a dividend. He holds a small position and says he is buying it smartly rather than going risk-on. This fits his approach of owning beaten-down names with long track records while the market is stretched.

  “I'm in Clorox. I'm in, like, a little Nike down here.”at 20:57

Bitcoin

Across the shows: 13 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 9 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gareth Soloway · Verified InvestingBullish

  Bitcoin's bottom is likely in after a higher high, but he expects a pullback to $67,000 to buy.

  Bitcoin broke a descending trendline from its all-time high, and after a series of lower highs and lows it has made a higher high, which marks a change in direction. Past cycles still usually include a deep drawdown after the low, so he expects one more pullback to about $67,000. That level sits on two major pivots and retests an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout. He views the low as in until proven otherwise and expects a good entry in the coming months.

  “And so I'm actually in the camp that we may have a little bit more upside here, but I'm looking for a bigger pullback to maybe as low as 67,000, where I would be a big buyer that point.”at 32:22

US stock market outlook

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Bullish into year-end; S&P 500 could reach about 8,000 as strong economy and earnings growth offset high yields.

  PCE inflation came in better than expected while the ISM and PMI data stayed strong. A good economy lifts yields but also adds earnings potential, and earnings have been robust, so the S&P is arguably cheaper than at the start of the year. Wall Street and retail keep buying despite yields. He sees little upside but expects a move toward about 8,000 by year-end, which matches a long-term trendline from the 2022 pivot lows, and says a hold above roughly 7,500 keeps his neutral-to-bullish stance.

  “And this actually continues to keep me bullish into year end on the market. Granted, I don't see a lot of upside, but I could see us heading to about 8,000.”at 2:34

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Index gains are dangerously concentrated in mega-cap AI names; a long-term breakdown risk is building.

  Concentration is rivaling past peaks that preceded meteoric collapses. The equal-weight S&P (RSP) is still about 6% below its all-time high even though the cap-weighted index just set a record. Nvidia's roughly $5 trillion market cap alone exceeds 100 to 200 S&P companies combined. Without the AI trade and AI capex, the US would probably already be in recession, and housing and consumer stocks are weak. He doesn't expect a break in the near term but is concerned about the long-term concentration.

  “I am. I mean, the concentration has just gotten out of control. In fact, it's rivaling past concentrations that really led us up to some meteoric collapses.”at 4:04

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Expects a major US market collapse eventually, backing Michael Burry's warning; timing is the uncertainty.

  Gareth says he believes Michael Burry's long-running catastrophe warning will prove correct and that a big collapse will ultimately happen. He gives no specific date or trigger here. He stresses that timing is the hard part, and says he was early in 2006-07 when he warned clients about hidden stress under the market and then looked wrong for almost a year. The host had just described his longer-term bearish thesis on debt pressures, which he was reacting to. He also says a downturn could come at any time, with oil prices a possible trigger. The support in this section is thin and mostly anecdotal.

  “And I actually believe he's gonna be dead on. And ultimately, it's gonna happen. It's just the timing of it is always the key.”at 38:20

Gold & precious metals

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Gold has broken its uptrend line; a close below 4,100 points to 3,950 and then 3,500.

  Gold is below a trendline from May 2025 that has been tested repeatedly since August 2025. Price sits right at 4,100, so a close below that level should retest the July lows near 3,950. If that breaks, the next target is 3,500.

  “So what I'm following here is the 4,100 level, which we're actually at right now as we speak... I think we revisit the [3,950] lows here that were made back in July. And if that breaks, we're going to 3,500.”at 23:08

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Gold is a core long-term holding given deficits and no fiscal discipline; he'd buy physical near 3,500.

  Over a five-to-ten-year horizon, deficits and government spending with no appetite for fiscal responsibility make physical assets attractive. Gold has stood the test of time as a store of value for thousands of years. For that reason he sees it as one of the main places to be, and he would buy physical metal near 3,500 rather than swing trade it.

  “if your time horizon is longer and you see what's going on with spending and no curve on deficits and etcetera, gold is one of the main places to be, at least for me, right?”at 23:45

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Silver's hype-driven run is likely to correct to about $50, possibly piercing it.

  The move is parabolic and driven by hype. Retail buyers who have never invested in precious metals pile in and buy the top, while narratives about shortages or Chinese selling don't matter. Silver hit about $50 in 1980 and again in 2011 as resistance, so the price tends to return to that level. A pullback there would flush out weak hands and create max pain, and he would treat it as the buy level.

  “I still think $50 on silver is likely our downside move here, maybe even piercing 50.”at 26:32

US growth & recession risk

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Without AI capex, the US economy would probably already be in recession.

  Many people would say the US is already in recession if you strip out the AI trade and the capex AI companies are spending. Housing weakness and consumers squeezed by gasoline also weigh on the economy. The AI spending is therefore what is holding up US growth.

  “many people would say we're already in a recession because if you take out the AI trade, if you take out the CapEx that AI companies are spending, we probably would be.”at 5:11

US consumer

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Consumers are squeezed by high gasoline and weak housing, pushing consumer stocks below key averages.

  Housing is suffering, which translates into weakness at Home Depot, Lowe's and other consumer companies. The consumer is being stretched by high oil prices and crushed by gasoline costs, and those stocks are basically below their 50-day moving averages. He reads this as a warning sign that the market could come in hard if conditions don't change.

  “the consumer is getting stretched by high oil prices and getting crushed by gasoline, we're seeing all of those stocks basically below their 50 moving averages.”at 5:26

AI & jobs

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  AI efficiency lifts company profits but cuts hiring, which could hurt consumer spending.

  AI makes his own business more efficient, so he needs fewer hires for the same growth. That efficiency should flow to the bottom line as profits. Offsetting it are job losses and non-hires over the next few years, which hit consumer spending, the main driver of the US economy. He sees the net effect as a give and take.

  “But I would argue that that efficiency will head to the bottom line of companies as profits.”at 6:57

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Retail dip-buying and monthly ETF inflows show complacency, like the late 1990s before big drops.

  Money flows into ETFs every month, and no one expects a drop; everyone assumes dips are buying opportunities. The VIX has been stuck around 15 with small upticks, so it no longer gives a risk signal. Retail was out after 2009, then came back through COVID, crypto and meme stocks, and apps make trading one click, so momentum swings get bigger. He sees this as the same environment as the late 1990s before big market drops.

  “No one's expecting a drop. Everyone just assumes every dip is a buying opportunity. And that also makes me very nervous... It's the same sort of environment we were in the late nineties, the same sort of environment we've been in before big drops in the market.”at 7:54

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  AI capex is insensitive to rates, so hyperscalers keep spending despite higher yields.

  Rising rates from 5% to 5.3% won't stop Google from spending on AI infrastructure. Its planned capex of around $300 billion won't be cut for that reason, so AI stocks are less affected by rates, and money keeps flowing into them. If rates moderate and the market pulls back, money could rotate from these AI stocks into beaten-down names.

  “Google's not going to say, oh, I guess we're not going to put another $300,000,000,000... to CapEx this year because rates went from 5% to 5.3%. They're still going to build out.”at 9:11

US elections & politics

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Markets have historically performed well under gridlock, so midterm risk is less of a worry.

  Investors worry about midterm turmoil, but the data show markets have been good performers when there is gridlock. Combined with a strong economy and earnings, that supports a rally toward 8,000 by the midterms or year-end.

  “If you look at the data, historically, the markets have been good performers when you have gridlock.”at 11:02

Nuclear energy

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Nuclear plays are beaten down, but the small-reactor buildout will happen, so buy the discounts.

  Uranium and nuclear plays have taken a beating recently. The narrative isn't going away because data centers need power, and the build-out of small reactors is going to happen. He would step into these names on discounts rather than stay totally away.

  “that's a narrative that's not going away... these data centers need power and that build out of small reactors is going to happen.”at 13:19

Earnings & corporate profits

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  A muted stock reaction to blowout earnings from leaders would signal institutional selling.

  Micron reported great earnings but the stock didn't rally, which he sees as a warning sign. When Microsoft, Meta and other leaders report, a failure to rally sharply on blockbuster numbers may mean institutions are starting to unload. He watches these reactions as an early signal of distribution, since the sell-off that follows a capex slowdown would be too fast for retail to react.

  “recently we saw Micron report great earnings. The stock didn't really go up. That's a warning sign, right?”at 14:31

US Treasuries & yields

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  A 5.3% 10-year yield is sustainable for now, but high debt means a breaking point is coming.

  Rates of 15-16% in the 1980s were manageable because US debt was tiny then. Mapped to today's much larger debt load, the equivalent rate is about 2%. Debt across the public and private sectors, corporate markets, credit cards and mortgages means a few ticks on the 10-year could break the camel's back. Yields are piercing the 2007 high; a breakout to 5.5% would be the next resistance and would push the market into its neutral zone. Yield spikes in France and Japan also point to a breaking point.

  “ticks on the 10 that can be the straw that breaks the camel's back. And so rates can't go back to those levels without an epic collapse.”at 18:45

US deficit & government debt

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Government has no appetite for fiscal discipline; DOGE cuts faded within a few months.

  No one in government wants to be the person who cuts spending. DOGE lasted only a couple of months, and once real cuts were proposed, the push evaporated. He cites this as evidence that deficits will keep growing, which supports holding physical assets like gold.

  “no one wants to be the person that, you know, cuts money. In fact, remember Doge that that whole thing? ...it lasted a couple months and once they actually put some cuts through”at 24:12

Sports, betting & prediction markets

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Gambling-style trading in prediction markets is a warning sign of speculative excess.

  Gambling has become the norm in prediction markets, and people are eager to toss money in and play the odds. He calls this a warning sign of epic proportion, tied to the wider retail speculation that has drawn many new participants into markets with easy one-click apps.

  “you even see it in the prediction markets... It's become the norm... that is a warning sign of epic proportion when people are so eager to just toss money in and play the odds”at 29:32

Bitcoin & crypto markets

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Altcoin seasons are unlikely now; investors will demand clear use cases after past burns.

  Investors got so burned by earlier altcoins that they won't buy anything anymore. Going forward, each coin has to justify itself with a real use case and an edge over alternatives, so money flows to projects with real technology, much like stocks. Liquidity is solid in Bitcoin, and altcoin liquidity is only returning now that a bullish phase has begun.

  “I don't think we're ever going to see an altcoin season like we used to see, meaning that investors got so burned by some of these coins that they're not just going to buy anything anymore.”at 34:38