What to Own if the Tech Boom Falters | Steven Feldman

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 51 speakers in other episodes, 42 bullish and 17 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / WealthionUncertain

  Nvidia has become a bank-like investor, partner and customer to leveraged AI firms, making it systemic.

  Nvidia acts as a bank, joint venture partner, investor and customer to a group of companies that are leveraging themselves heavily. Feldman argues that because of this web of exposure, Nvidia is now roughly as important to the economy as JPMorgan. That makes the fragility of those leveraged partners a risk for Nvidia itself. He stops short of calling for a full exit from the trade, but says the system is highly leveraged and highly connected.

  “Nvidia has become basically the bank, the joint venture partner, the investor, and the customer of a group of companies that are leveraging themselves up to the hilt.”at 4:49

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / WealthionBullish

  Nvidia no longer trades near 50x earnings and is a basic component of the build-out.

  Feldman says Nvidia isn't trading at 50 times earnings anymore, so the valuation is not the frothy number it once was. He calls the company a more basic component of what is being built, one that stays scarce with or without AI. That framing argues the stock's valuation is grounded in its role as infrastructure, not pure speculation.

  “You know, Nvidia is not trading at 50 PE anymore either. They're not... They're a more basic component of what is being built.”at 7:37

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 59 speakers in other episodes, 16 bullish and 57 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / WealthionBearish

  CoreWeave's bonds trading near 70 cents are an early warning on AI capital structures.

  CoreWeave is a less established company without large cash flow to cover its capital needs and debt service. Its bonds have cracked and trade near 70 cents on the dollar, meaning bondholders now demand a large discount to earn par. Feldman treats this as a canary: equity holders still believe in the AI story, but the credit market is pricing in real risk of loss on the debt financing the AI build-out.

  “CoreWeave, a less established company with not massive cash flow to cover the capital needs and the debt service, and the bonds cracked. And they're trading, like, at 70¢”at 1:25

Oracle

Across the shows: 25 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 22 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / WealthionBearish

  Oracle's force majeure on an $18B data center exposes fragility in AI build-out projects.

  An $18 billion data center project was delayed because a required energy pipeline permit was held up. The tenant, Oracle, sent a force majeure notice, saying it won't pay rent for a stated reason but is not in default. Feldman notes that such a clause has happened in real estate history, but not on a project of this size. He reads it as evidence that AI data center projects are fragile and that the tenant can walk away from obligations, with lenders and equity partners carrying the loss.

  “Oracle sent a force majeure note. That basically says there's a reason we won't be paying rent, but we're not in default. Has that happened before in the history of real estate? Yes.”at 2:57

Dell Technologies

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / WealthionBearish

  Dell is up two to four times, so investors should take profits and rotate out.

  AI-trade gains have come beyond hot names like Nvidia, including hardware makers such as Dell, which are up two, three or four times. Feldman argues it is fine to sell those winners and reallocate, since the AI-linked energy and hardware trade has exploded and is unlikely to keep compounding from here. He is advocating a rotation out of the trade, with more research-based picks replacing it.

  “And they've come from not only, you know, the hot names like Nvidia, but if you owned Hewlett Packard, if you owned Dell, you're up two, three, four X. It's okay to sell those.”at 5:30

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / WealthionBearish

  Hewlett Packard is up two to four times, so it's fine to take profits.

  Feldman lists Hewlett Packard among AI-trade names that have risen two, three or four times. He says investors who made money there should sell, take profits and find a new place to reallocate. The argument is that the AI hardware rally has run far enough that the risk-reward for holding has deteriorated.

  “if you owned Hewlett Packard, if you owned Dell, you're up two, three, four X. It's okay to sell those.”at 5:30

Goldcrest

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / WealthionNeutral

  Goldcrest's unlevered farmland fund is a hold for the next year.

  Goldcrest is a row-crop farmland asset manager Feldman owns, and it is deliberately unlevered and conservatively managed. Its returns are uncorrelated with stocks, and it has had few down years. Over a one-year horizon he would hold rather than buy it, but he sees it as a valuable asset for those funding pensions or building long-term wealth.

  “It's uncorrelated. And so if you want to buy it from this year to next year, I'd say probably a hold.”at 15:33

Berkshire Hathaway

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / WealthionUncertain

  Berkshire, sitting on $370B cash, could deploy about $50B to rescue a stressed AI borrower.

  Berkshire is sitting on $370 billion of cash waiting for a break, and new CEO Greg Abel comes from running its infrastructure and real assets businesses. Feldman says Berkshire has done this before, investing in Goldman Sachs in the financial crisis when few others could write large checks. He expects a $50 billion deployment during an AI-driven stress event that would save a company like Oracle, though he notes Berkshire's post-Buffett test will be to prove its worth.

  “But I honestly think this will be 50,000,000,000. Oh my gosh. And it'll be saving somebody like Oracle,”at 20:33

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / WealthionBearish

  Aspirational luxury has rolled as prices got too high; the luxury trade is breaking.

  Feldman says the expectation that the middle class would keep buying luxury goods without limit has broken. Prices reached points like a $90,000 Chanel skirt, and buyers lost the thrill. He argues luxury demand is tied to the wealth effect, so it will roll over when stock portfolios fall, and the luxury sector has already started rolling.

  “It turns out that it got too expensive when you have to buy a Chanel skirt for $90,000.”at 24:08

US Treasuries & yields

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / Wealthion

  Long-end yields are driven by fiscal risk, not Fed rate moves, and will keep rising.

  Fed hikes only move the short end of the curve, which is good for cash. The long end is a fiscal phenomenon: with $40 trillion of compounding debt, competition from AI debt issuance, and risks in the economy, investors demand more return for holding long bonds, suspecting that the government may inflate its debt away. Feldman agrees with Lynn Alden that the US is in a fiscal world that doesn't want to fix anything.

  “When the fed increases rates, it's only increasing rates at the very short end... But the long end is a fiscal phenomenon.”at 28:13

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / Wealthion

  Ten-year Treasuries at ~5% now offer positive real returns, making bonds worth more of a portfolio.

  Feldman says he spent ten years arguing that the 60/40 mix should be closer to 100% stocks because real rates were negative: bonds returned nothing after inflation and were still taxed. He now thinks bonds are coming back into favour because a ten-year bond yields about 5%, which he describes as a positive real return. He sees that as a reason to hold more bonds in a tax-sheltered account, while noting the yield is still only modestly attractive. The argument rests on the change in real yield, not on a forecast for rates.

  “I'm beginning to actually even come back to the bond. I went ten years telling people I, the sixty forty mix should be a 100 or whatever it is because you got a negative real rate. You got no real return and you paid taxes. Now you can go buy a ten year bond, you get five and something percent”at 38:44

AI pricing & unit economics

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / Wealthion

  AI adoption is strong, but the price per token is falling, squeezing AI economics.

  Feldman says while AI adoption has been pretty good, the price companies can charge for that usage is declining. This is the first of two concerns he cites, alongside cracks in the capital structure, and it suggests that growing usage is not translating into proportionate revenue or margins for AI providers.

  “while adoption has been pretty good, the price that you can charge for that adoption is going down.”at 1:03

Power demand & the grid

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / Wealthion

  Power stays scarce with or without AI, and utilities are not priced at 50x earnings.

  Data centers that under-earn still need electricity, so the power trade survives even if individual data center investments disappoint. Feldman says the US had an electricity transmission deficit before AI showed up, so scarcity is structural. Utilities are not trading at 50 times earnings on a relative basis, but when AI enthusiasm fades, utilities may revert to normal utility-style businesses.

  “We had a electricity transmission deficit in this country before AI showed up.”at 7:56

Copper & industrial metals

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / Wealthion

  Copper demand from electrification and data centers is structural and not going away.

  Copper demand was driven first by EVs and the broader electrification of everything, then data centers pushed it higher. Feldman says that once the AI enthusiasm calms, there will be less focus on copper, but the demand driver isn't going away. He ties this to a US transmission deficit that predates AI, which keeps copper scarce.

  “if you're in the business of providing copper... Then data centers put it into the [hyperscale]... but it's not going away.”at 8:04

Gold & precious metals

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / Wealthion

  In inflation, unlevered gold beats levered miners, and gold is an inevitable hedge.

  In an inflationary environment, scarce assets outperform, but levered ones suffer when rates rise. Gold needs no debt rollover, while capital-intensive miners must keep borrowing and face higher risk premiums, so gold outperformed the miners until recently. Feldman calls the gold trade an inevitable insurance policy against geopolitical and sovereign debt risk. Gold has been flat for six months in a tight range, but he expects it to hold its value.

  “In an inflationary environment, you want to own a scarce asset, but you don't want to own a leveraged one.”at 9:05

Commercial real estate

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / Wealthion

  Levered real estate loses value when rates rise; unlevered scarce assets are safer.

  In an inflationary environment, replacement costs rise, which should make scarce buildings more valuable. But if the building is levered and interest rates rise, net operating income can fall in the short run and the equity can lose value. Feldman says investors should own scarce assets that don't require heavy rollover debt.

  “If that building is levered and interest rates are going up, the NOI can go down in the short run and it could actually be less valuable in the short run.”at 9:39

Oil & fuels

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / Wealthion

  Energy-driven inflation from the Iran war should ease once the war ends.

  Energy prices are a major driver of current inflation because they flow through the economy via diesel and gasoline, which trucks and farms depend on. Feldman says the war will eventually end, though he won't predict when, and that will ease energy pressure. He treats the energy shock as temporary, with the timing uncertain.

  “at some point it will be over and that will alleviate some energy pressure.”at 11:21

China's economy

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / Wealthion

  China's manufacturing glut will export deflation to the rest of the world.

  Feldman argues China has a massive manufacturing surplus. That glut will push cheap goods into global markets, exporting deflation and making most things cheaper, with memory chips as the exception because demand is high and supply scarce. He sees this surplus as a force that will help offset inflationary pressures in the US and elsewhere.

  “I think China has such a glut in manufacturing that it will export deflation.”at 11:33

US inflation

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / Wealthion

  Inflation should fall once energy eases and Chinese deflation and AI slowdown weigh on prices.

  Feldman says current inflation is driven mostly by energy prices, which pass through the economy via diesel and gasoline. Once the Iran war ends and energy comes down, along with a slowing AI trade and cheap Chinese manufactured exports, he expects inflation to ease. He adds that the government will likely present the decline as aggressively as it can, implying official measures may understate the cost-of-living pain people feel.

  “If the AI trade dampens and China exports lower priced manufactured stuff with or without tariffs and energy comes back down before the Iran war, you're going to see inflation actually come down.”at 11:55

US consumer

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / Wealthion

  Wealth-effect pricing power is cracking; some industries have begun to roll over.

  Feldman observes that US company margins have ballooned, and he argues that outside the memory-chip sector, the margins reflect a wealth effect letting companies keep raising prices while people still buy. He says certain industries have begun to roll over, so companies will eventually have to lower prices to stay in business, regardless of their input costs.

  “the wealth effect has been letting companies continue to charge more and more and more, and people are still buying. But certain industries have begun to roll.”at 23:29

US deficit & government debt

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / Wealthion

  Trillion-dollar deficits and $40T debt are politically unfixable; no solution is in sight.

  Deficits of about $2 trillion a year, on $40 trillion of debt, are disconnected from politics. Raising taxes and cutting spending are both politically toxic in the US, so nobody fixes the problem. With rising rates, interest costs are already above defense spending and creeping toward Social Security, and roughly $9 trillion of debt rolls over within twelve months, creating a doom loop.

  “And those $2,000,000,000,000 deficits are disconnected from politics. Nobody wants to raise taxes... and nobody wants to cut spending.”at 27:15

AI & jobs

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / Wealthion

  AI can reallocate GDP but can't create it, since consumers are already maxed out.

  Feldman argues AI is very productive, but consumers can only consume so much; he is already maxed out on travel, food and reading, so AI cannot create GDP out of thin air. It can only reallocate existing spending. If the US is far ahead in AI, the productivity gain might instead be drawn out of the rest of the world, which could help US debt in the short run but impoverish other nations.

  “AI is, is very productive, but I can only eat three meals a day. I can't, you can't create GDP out of AI. You could just reallocate it.”at 29:42

Agriculture & food commodities

• Steven Feldman · GBI (Gold Bullion International) / Wealthion

  Agriculture is scarce and irreplaceable, and grain prices have risen strongly this year.

  Feldman argues that over a hundred-year horizon, the agricultural trade is amazing because land and food supply are scarce and irreplaceable. Grain prices have run up strongly for the year, which offsets pressure farmers face from higher diesel and input costs. Farmland's economics depend on the mix of revenue and leverage, but the underlying scarcity is structural.

  “if you have a hundred year duration, which every investor should start with, I would say the ag trade is amazing, scarce, irreplaceable.”at 34:04