The Midterms Just Exposed How Bad It Really Is…

Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial

Midterms show economic distress driving an eviction cycle, not a stable partisan realignment.

Snider argues the midterm results reflect economic distress rather than party loyalty. He cites a CNN exit poll in which 88% of voters said cost of living was a crucial or major factor, with 49% calling it crucial. Voters punished Democrats in 2024 after officials dismissed affordability complaints as a vibe session, then punished Republicans in 2026 after they made the same mistake. He describes a cycle in which voters throw out the party in power, then throw out the replacement when the economy stays broken.

“This is not a stable partisan realignment it's an eviction cycle.”at 3:32

Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial

Stocks are driven by liquidity, leverage, buybacks and flows, not corporate earnings or household conditions.

Snider argues that stock prices are not mainly driven by corporate earnings. They are influenced by liquidity, leverage, buybacks, passive retirement flows and speculation, concentrated in a narrow group of enormous global companies with privileged access to capital. Congressional changes affect taxes, regulation and spending at the margin for specific sectors, but do not force stock prices to reflect the median household. That is why markets barely reacted to the change in control of Congress.

“Stocks are influenced by a number of factors. We say corporate earnings, that's not really true. It's really liquidity, leverage, buybacks, passive retirement flows and just pure speculation.”at 4:03

Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial

UK, French and German governments are losing support as employment weakens and living standards stagnate.

Snider argues that the same eviction cycle is playing out in Europe. In Britain, voters ousted the Conservatives in 2024 after inflation rates fell but price levels stayed permanently higher, and Labour's support then collapsed when it failed to deliver. In France and Germany, governments lose support as employment weakens, industry struggles and living standards at best stagnate, pushing voters toward parties once considered too radical.

“Governments lose support as employment weakens, industry struggles, and living standards at best stagnate when in truth, they fall further and further behind.”at 7:40

Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial

New Zealand's rising unemployment shows the same income failure driving voter churn elsewhere.

Snider argues New Zealand is a clear example of the eviction cycle. Unemployment unexpectedly rose to 5.7% just before the election, its highest level in eleven years. Employment fell in the third quarter when economists expected a substantial increase, and over the past year employment grew only about 0%, less than half the pace predicted. Private sector wage growth slowed to 2%, and the ruling party struggled to assemble a parliamentary majority.

“Just days before its election, unemployment unexpectedly rose to 5.7%, its highest level in eleven years.”at 8:00

Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial

Government tax credits, rebates and subsidies cannot repair the economy's underlying credit and investment foundation.

Snider argues that borrowing, spending, checks, tax cuts and subsidies can temporarily shift demand or purchasing power and sometimes prevent hardship, but they create distortions and do not create sustainable growth. Real growth requires functioning credit, investment, productivity and expectations of future income. A tax credit may help at the margin but does not turn a bad investment into a good one, a temporary rebate cannot replace years of missing income growth, and a subsidized mortgage makes costs appear elsewhere.

“A government tax credit may help at the margin, but it doesn't automatically transform a bad investment into a good one.”at 10:34

Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial

Mainstream central bankers misdiagnose the economic problem as inflation rather than lost income.

Snider argues that politicians, mainstream central bankers and economists keep framing the damage as an inflation problem. In his view, the damage comes from lost jobs and income: falling inflation rates do not restore the lost purchasing power, and the economy needs a sustained boom in jobs and incomes. He cites the continued weak job growth and subdued wages as evidence that the diagnosis is wrong. The argument is more of a critique than a specific policy call.

“And part of that comes because politicians and the mainstream central bankers and economists continue to misdiagnose the problem as inflation.”at 13:02

Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial

The real problem is weak job and income growth, not consumer price inflation.

Snider argues officials and central bankers misdiagnose the problem as inflation when voter distress reflects earned income. He points to weak US employment growth and subdued wage growth, which left GDP reports too small to restore the previous trajectory. He uses New Zealand's rising unemployment and slowing wage growth as an example that the core problem is income and jobs, not prices.

“It's not really about consumer prices, it's about ... earned job income.”at 13:09

Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial

Falling inflation rates do not reverse the price-level damage from the 2021–22 supply shock.

Snider argues that falling inflation rates are not the same as falling prices. The 2020–2021 supply shock pushed the price level sharply higher and impoverished households. If inflation drops from 9% to 3%, prices still rise, just more slowly. Grocery bills, car prices, rents and insurance premiums do not return to earlier levels, so households still feel the damage.

“But falling inflation rates don't reverse that damage. ... If inflation drops from 9% to 3%, prices are still rising, just more slowly.”at 13:30

Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial

The economy has forgotten how to grow; failed recovery, not a GDP collapse, defines the risk.

Snider argues the economy avoids a textbook V-shaped recession but still fails to produce enough growth. A normal recession is a temporary fall behind trend that recovery reverses. Now GDP stays slightly positive, employment rises and wages increase, but never enough to repair the damage from lost years. He concludes the defining feature is failed recovery, so the traditional recession definition should change rather than treating positive GDP as proof of health.

“But that misses the real problem. This economy has forgotten how to grow.”at 17:12