Nvidia Fallout, AI IPO Frenzy and Rate Hike Risks

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 95 speakers in other episodes, 76 bullish and 50 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jordan Klein · MizuhoBullish

  Nvidia's sub-10x forward P/E is unjustifiably cheap; earnings growth outpacing the de-rated stock makes it a buying opportunity.

  Nvidia's forward P/E has fallen below 10x, a level usually reserved for companies with structural impairment or secular decline. Klein says Nvidia is not in that position. The stock has de-rated because earnings have grown much faster than the share price, and investors are now discounting uncertainty around CEO Jensen Huang. He calls this possibly the opportunity of a lifetime to get into the company.

  “I never thought I would see the PE multiple on a forward basis drop below 10 times... that's usually reserved for companies that have structural impairments or a business that is in secular decline, and we know that's not the case here.”at 5:39

• Jordan Klein · MizuhoUncertain

  Jensen Huang is irreplaceable to investors; the stock isn't pricing his loss, and the investigation's length is the key uncertainty.

  Klein sees Huang as a visionary whose leadership pivot from gaming to AI and ability to stay at the frontier are hard to replace, so he is irreplaceable in investors' minds. He does not think the stock discounts losing him, and he does not want to consider a plan B. The bigger issue is uncertainty about how long the internal investigation will take. He notes that Dan Ives expects six to eight weeks, and he hopes it does not run longer than that, so investors can take a fresh look in early next year.

  “my view is he's irreplaceable in the minds of investors. I mean he's not only a visionary and a leader for the company, but for the entire technology industry and the AI industry as a whole.”at 6:49

Take-Two Interactive Software

• Jordan Klein · MizuhoBullish

  Take-Two is a non-AI play; its imminent GTA launch matters more than its recent earnings report.

  Klein says investors can look outside AI for opportunities, and Take-Two has the biggest video game launch in history. The stock's move is driven by the upcoming launch of the new GTA game on November 19, not by the earnings it just reported. Klein is excited about the launch and sees it as the catalyst.

  “there's a company like Take Two... They reported last night, it's not about earnings that they just reported, it's about this game coming out”at 12:54

Microsoft

Across the shows: 42 speakers in other episodes, 51 bullish and 7 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jordan Klein · MizuhoBullish

  Hyperscalers like Microsoft are a defensive near-term play: cheap, strong balance sheets, and existing data center capacity gains value if tight.

  Klein leans defensive near term and favors hyperscalers, which he says give both offense and defense. They are still cheap and have great balance sheets. Their core businesses outside AI were printing money before they began the data center build-out. If new data center capacity becomes hard to get, the capacity they already own becomes more valuable.

  “I think you lean a little bit more defensive near term, and that means hyperscalers. So Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, maybe Google, I think they give you offense and defense. They're still cheap, great balance sheets.”at 12:54

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 46 speakers in other episodes, 60 bullish and 10 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jordan Klein · MizuhoBullish

  Amazon is a defensive near-term hyperscaler: cheap, strong balance sheet, and existing data center capacity gains value if tight.

  Klein leans defensive near term and favors hyperscalers, which he says give both offense and defense. Amazon is still cheap and has a great balance sheet. Its core business outside AI was printing money before the data center build-out. If new data center capacity becomes hard to get, the capacity it already owns becomes more valuable.

  “I think you lean a little bit more defensive near term, and that means hyperscalers. So Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, maybe Google, I think they give you offense and defense. They're still cheap, great balance sheets.”at 12:54

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 70 speakers in other episodes, 71 bullish and 37 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jordan Klein · MizuhoBullish

  Meta is a defensive near-term hyperscaler: cheap, strong balance sheet, and existing data center capacity gains value if tight.

  Klein leans defensive near term and favors hyperscalers, which he says give both offense and defense. Meta is still cheap and has a great balance sheet. Its core business outside AI was printing money before the data center build-out. If new data center capacity becomes hard to get, the capacity it already owns becomes more valuable.

  “I think you lean a little bit more defensive near term, and that means hyperscalers. So Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, maybe Google, I think they give you offense and defense. They're still cheap, great balance sheets.”at 12:54

Texas Instruments

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jordan Klein · MizuhoBullish

  Analog chipmaker Texas Instruments benefits from falling oil and rates, with a large non-AI business still tied to the semi cycle.

  Analog semiconductors are cyclical but still levered to the semiconductor cycle. Klein expects oil prices and interest rates to come down, which he sees as good for the macro backdrop. Texas Instruments has a much bigger business outside AI than the AI-focused chip names, which gives it a different way to play the sector.

  “if oil prices and interest rates do come in, and I think oil prices are coming down, that's really good for the macro backdrop... companies like Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, even Infineon... they have much bigger businesses outside of AI, right? But they're still levered to the semi cycle.”at 14:04

Infineon Technologies

• Jordan Klein · MizuhoBullish

  Infineon benefits from falling oil and rates, with a large non-AI business still tied to the semi cycle.

  Analog semiconductors are cyclical but still levered to the semiconductor cycle. Klein expects oil prices and interest rates to come down, which he sees as good for the macro backdrop. Infineon has a much bigger business outside AI, which gives it a different way to play the sector.

  “if oil prices and interest rates do come in, and I think oil prices are coming down, that's really good for the macro backdrop... companies like Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, even Infineon... they have much bigger businesses outside of AI, right? But they're still levered to the semi cycle.”at 14:04

Analog Devices

• Jordan Klein · MizuhoBullish

  Analog Devices benefits from falling oil and rates, with a large non-AI business still tied to the semi cycle.

  Analog semiconductors are cyclical but still levered to the semiconductor cycle. Klein expects oil prices and interest rates to come down, which he sees as good for the macro backdrop. Analog Devices has a much bigger business outside AI, which gives it a different way to play the sector.

  “if oil prices and interest rates do come in, and I think oil prices are coming down, that's really good for the macro backdrop... companies like Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, even Infineon... they have much bigger businesses outside of AI, right? But they're still levered to the semi cycle.”at 14:04

Advanced Micro Devices

Across the shows: 14 speakers in other episodes, 13 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jordan Klein · MizuhoBullish

  AMD will outperform Nvidia through year-end, since it has no investigation overhang and Intel is capacity constrained.

  Klein expects AMD to beat Nvidia through year-end because Nvidia faces an investigation overhang that AMD does not have. He adds that Intel is capacity constrained on getting out more wafers. AMD uses TSMC as its foundry partner, which Klein sees as an advantage.

  “I mean, AMD, actually think, will outperform NVIDIA probably between now and the end of the year, just because there's no investigation oversight.”at 14:04

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company

Across the shows: 8 speakers in other episodes, 7 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jordan Klein · MizuhoBullish

  TSMC wins whichever company makes the chip, so it is a favored, neutral way to play AI chips.

  Klein says TSMC is the foundry for the major chip designers. Whether the chip is a GPU, CPU or custom silicon, TSMC makes money. He compares it to Switzerland because it stays neutral and still wins. Intel is capacity constrained on wafers, which strengthens TSMC's position.

  “TSM is the one that no matter who's making the chip GPU, CPU, custom silicon they win. They're like Switzerland.”at 14:04

GE Vernova

Across the shows: 7 speakers in other episodes, 11 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Rob Wertheimer · Melius ResearchBullish

  Power demand is extraordinary and GE Vernova's turbines are sold out, so the SoftBank-related selloff is an overreaction.

  Wertheimer says power demand has been extraordinary over the past year. That has given power providers like GE Vernova and turbine makers strong pricing power, and they are sold out into 2030 and beyond. Healthy down payments and reservation agreements protect them against risks like SoftBank's. Electrification in Europe and China adds to long-term demand, and he sees strong power demand so far despite the AI spending worries.

  “So if you look across the past year, power demand has been absolutely extraordinary... They've been sold out into 2030 and beyond.”at 31:37

Amgen

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bob Lang · Explosive OptionsBullish

  Amgen is attractive: strong cash flow, a reasonable multiple, and late-stage drugs that should add earnings.

  Amgen's October earnings showed strong cash flow with roughly 32% margins. The stock trades at about 19 times 2027 earnings, so it is not expensive. Several Amgen drugs are in stage three trials, and once approved they should bring in good cash flow. He sees the stock near all-time highs, has seen heavy options call buying into January 2027, and expects a roughly 12% expected move that could take it above $500 over the next two to two and a half months.

  “When earnings came out in October, they came in with some great cash flow numbers, basically at 32% margins. Stock is selling only at 19 times twenty twenty seven earnings, so it's really not that expensive here.”at 38:01

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISI

  Technology stocks now trade cheaper than the S&P 500 for the first time in over a decade.

  Emanuel argues that technology stocks as a group now trade at a discount to the S&P 500. That is the first time in more than a decade, and close to levels seen before the internet revolution. He presents this valuation gap as a reason the tech rally has further to run.

  “technology stocks as a whole are now trading cheaper than the S and P five hundred. As a whole, for the first time really in in almost more than a decade and almost to the levels before the Internet revolution,”at 8:43

AI: overall outlook

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISI

  The AI revolution won't be significantly derailed by chaos at Nvidia alone.

  Emanuel says Nvidia is a key AI company, but the Nasdaq was still marginally higher over two days despite the stock's slide. He argues the AI revolution will not be significantly derailed by more chaos at this one company. Tech stocks are also cheap, so the AI trade has further to run.

  “Number one, we don't think that the AI revolution is going to derail significantly if there is more chaos at this one company.”at 8:43

IPOs, M&A & deal activity

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISI

  Midterm results likely mean more M&A, as possible political change in 2028 pushes dealmaking up.

  Emanuel argues that after last week's midterm results, M&A activity is likely to intensify. He ties this to the potential change in the political landscape in 2028. He presents this as one of the reasons he sees the market backdrop as supportive.

  “there's an argument to be made, particularly with the results of the midterms last week, that you're going to have an intensified m and a environment just because of of the potential change to the political landscape in 2028.”at 10:13

US stock market outlook

• Julian Emanuel · Evercore ISI

  Bull market should continue: recessions and punitive rates aren't coming, and earnings grow double digits.

  Emanuel says bull markets typically end because of recessions or overly punitive interest rates. He does not see either shaping up. Combined with double-digit earnings growth and the valuation picture in technology, he believes the market has further to go.

  “what normally ends bull markets, essentially recessions or overly punitive interest rates, we don't see either of those really shaping up.”at 10:13

US rates & the Fed

• Steve Liesman · CNBC

  Market prices consecutive quarter-point hikes, December and January, over a 50bp move.

  Liesman says Governor Waller floated a 50bp hike if inflation is hot, while Laurie Logan wants consecutive 25bp moves. Market pricing sides more with Logan. It shows about 87% odds for a December quarter-point hike, but only 12 to 14% for 50bp. January odds are near 60%, up from before the hot CPI print and the Fed comments.

  “If you look at the pricing of the market today, they're siding a little bit more with Logan on the two consecutive 25s than they are with the Waller with the 50.”at 18:07

US inflation

• Steve Liesman · CNBC

  Inflation is gaining momentum; diesel hikes and business price increases mean elevated inflation for several months.

  Liesman says inflation is gaining momentum. The administration expects oil prices to bring inflation down, but Fed officials like Waller push back. He points to a diesel price hike already in train and businesses saying they will raise prices. He notes the upcoming PPI should add pressure on businesses to raise prices, so the market now assumes inflation will run a bit higher for several months.

  “We have this diesel price hike in train. We have businesses saying they're going to be increasing prices. So all of that stuff suggests... right now there's this idea that for the next several months, it's kind of baked in that inflation is going to be a little bit on the higher side.”at 19:24

Renewables & clean energy

• Pippa Stevens · CNBC

  Solar stocks face near-term pressure as rising ten-year yields hit project financing and residential loans.

  Solar stocks fell more than 5% as the ten-year yield moved back above 5%. Utility-scale solar depends on debt financing, and residential solar loans and leases are tied to the ten-year yield, so the rate rise weighs on the group. The move also reverses part of the post-election rally, which was driven by hopes that Democrats would restore renewable tax incentives cut by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Recent earnings misses, including Enphase's weak Q4 guide, add to the pressure. The frozen housing market makes it less likely homeowners add solar. Solar remains the fastest way to bring new generation online, especially when paired with storage.

  “Now, utility scale solar depends on debt financing, and residential solar loans and leases are sensitive to the ten year, which is why the move back above 5% is weighing today on the group.”at 41:25

Nuclear energy

• Pippa Stevens · CNBC

  Long-term new nuclear build-out still expected, but speculative nuclear stocks will keep swinging wildly.

  Oklo is down 77% over the past twelve months after being a market darling. Nuclear still has bipartisan support, so the long-term plan to build new reactors holds. Speculative names that have not yet built their reactors will keep swinging wildly, with double-digit daily moves common. The sector is volatile in the same way solar is.

  “I think that nuclear still does have bipartisan support, and so ultimately the long term is still we are going to build new nuclear, but particularly on these more speculative names that have yet to actually establish and build their reactors, they're going to swing wildly”at 43:38