CoreWeave AI Rally, NVIDIA Scrutiny and Energy Shipping Risks

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 95 speakers in other episodes, 32 bullish and 104 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tyler Radke · CitiBullish

  CoreWeave's execution is strong and earnings power should show after 2027, with a $128 target.

  Radke rates CoreWeave a buy with a $128 target, more than double the current price. He cites capacity coming online faster than planned and improving pricing margins. He says CoreWeave has moved past needing unsecured debt, because customer prepayments let it access cheaper delayed-draw term loan financing for its capacity. He expects cash flow to grow strongly next year, helping fund obligations, with the earnings trajectory improving after 2028, which is when he thinks investors will gain more confidence.

  “I think it's gonna be consistent execution. ... Obviously, they're standing at capacity faster than planned. Pricing margins are all coming better.”at 4:35

• Tyler Radke · CitiBullish

  CoreWeave is well placed against political and permitting risk because its power and permits are already secured.

  Radke concedes political risks always need monitoring because data center sites are physical, capital intensive and need the right approvals. He argues CoreWeave is still among the best positioned. It has stood up more capacity than many other neoclouds combined. Its sites in Texas and other states with more political focus already have power rights approved, permits in hand and regulatory conditions settled. If data center growth slowed sharply, supply would stay tight and push up prices on CoreWeave's existing capacity.

  “they already have all the power rights approved. They have the permits. They have all the regulatory conditions ... settled.”at 6:12

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 113 speakers in other episodes, 98 bullish and 68 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Roger McNamee · Elevation PartnersBearish

  China blocking Nvidia processor purchases is bad news for Nvidia shareholders.

  McNamee says China is clearly trying to stop Nvidia selling its processors into China, which is bad for shareholders. He points to China building its own chip industry to compete with Nvidia and to rules that bar Chinese companies from using Nvidia processors. He says about 750,000 Nvidia processors sit in Hong Kong warehouses that China has refused to accept. He also says China-related revenue has reached about 20% of Nvidia's total.

  “So the first is it's pretty clear that China's trying to prevent NVIDIA from selling its processors into China. Well, that's bad news for NVIDIA shareholders.”at 19:15

• Roger McNamee · Elevation PartnersUncertain

  Huang's scandal looks like a hit job; losing him would hurt Nvidia, which has no second in command.

  McNamee says the White House has known about the Huang relationship for a year and that Nvidia has known the White House knew, so the timing of the story is odd. He calls the investigation a probable hit job driven by China hawks and rival industry players, not the White House. He says Huang should not be removed. Nvidia has about 60 direct reports and no second in command, so a shareholder should not want to lose Huang, who he says is very much the company. He says he does not believe the board has been kept in the dark, since the relationship was openly visible.

  “there's this story out that's threatening Jensen as CEO in a company where I think he has 60 direct reports, and there's no second in command. So from the point of view of the shareholder, you don't wanna lose [Jensen].”at 19:31

Cheniere Energy

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Craig Johnson · Piper SandlerBullish

  Cheniere's chart shows a large base and a breakout to new highs, which is bullish.

  Johnson is a technical analyst and bases this on the chart. A very large base has formed in Cheniere and the stock has just broken out. He buys stocks making new highs and says the same pattern is showing up in other parts of the energy sector. The view comes from the technical setup, not a fundamental forecast.

  “on the technical side, a very big base has formed, and we just broke out. We like stocks that make new highs.”at 10:33

AI chips & semiconductors

• Craig Johnson · Piper Sandler

  Semis are in a bear market since June; today's rally is only relief, not a turn.

  Johnson says the AI and semiconductor stocks entered a bear market and that the sell-off began in June. He calls today's move a relief rally driven by short covering when news came in slightly better than feared. He argues semiconductors cannot lead the market in a bear market and still have the rest of the market hold up, so the group is not out of the woods on the technicals. He says he still likes AI and is not questioning it.

  “You can't have and let me repeat, you cannot have leadership in the market in a bear market like we've got for semiconductors and expect this not to carry through for the rest of the market.”at 8:25

US stock market outlook

• Craig Johnson · Piper Sandler

  Money is rotating out of tech into defensive sectors, and the tech selloff has further to run.

  Johnson sees money leaving tech and moving into health care, energy and some financials. Based on his firm's research, he calls it a defensive rotation and says the question investors ask most, whether the selloff has gone too far, has a no answer. He says there is still room to fall. He has cut Piper Sandler's tech weighting from 18% to about 14% and advises selling into strength like today's rally.

  “The market is rotating. You're taking money out of tech. You're rotating into health care. You're rotating into energy at this point in time. ... It's not. There's still more room to go.”at 9:12

Oil & fuels

• Craig Johnson · Piper Sandler

  Energy was upgraded in February; the market underestimated how long the Middle East conflict would last.

  Piper Sandler upgraded energy in February when most investors avoided the group. They expected a quick Middle East conflict. Johnson says the conflict has lasted much longer than expected, and that is why energy has been strong. The upgrade is backed by the price action in energy stocks, including the breakouts in LNG and other energy names.

  “We upgraded energy in February. Nobody wanted to get on board with energy. They thought this was going to be a quick conflict in The Middle East. It's played out, been much longer.”at 10:17

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Craig Johnson · Piper Sandler

  AI growth, build-out and earnings growth are starting to slow even though AI is not going away.

  Johnson says the second derivative of AI growth is starting to slow, which matters for market earnings growth next year. He says AI is here to stay, but the growth rate, the pace of the build-out and related parts of the trade will slow. He presents this as the reason CoreWeave's strong results do not change his view that tech has further to fall.

  “the second derivative rate of change is starting to slow. AI is here. It's not going away by any means. But the growth rate, the build out, the pace ... it's going to slow.”at 11:35

AI pricing & unit economics

• Roger McNamee · Elevation Partners

  Nvidia chips are about half of US AI costs, so cheaper chips would lift margins at AI labs.

  McNamee says Nvidia represents roughly half the cost structure of the US AI industry. He argues that lowering the price of Nvidia processors would significantly boost margins at OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft and others. That is why he says the chip-pricing pressure on Nvidia is also coming from the rest of the industry and why hurting Nvidia would hurt the whole industry.

  “NVIDIA represents roughly half the cost structure of the AI industry in The United States. And quite clearly, if you could bring the price of NVIDIA processors down, that would be huge for the margins at OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, and the rest.”at 19:49

US–China AI & chip race

• Roger McNamee · Elevation Partners

  Blocking chip sales to China would do exactly what China wants and hurt an American company.

  McNamee argues that China is trying to build its own chip industry and to keep its companies off Nvidia processors. If Congress blocks chip sales to China, the US would do exactly what China is trying to achieve, and it would cost an American company that dominates the global market. He thinks the US benefits whenever one of its companies dominates the global market, so the restrictions would be self-defeating.

  “If we block sales to China, we're doing exactly what China appears to want. And weirdly, we're doing this at the cost to an American company that is a global market.”at 20:51

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Roger McNamee · Elevation Partners

  The AI industry has invested too much, too early in a technology that won't scale to the opportunity.

  McNamee says the US has argued that the way AI has been pursued is dumb. In his view it has invested too much money too early in a technology that does not scale to the opportunity it is meant to deliver. He adds that this is not Nvidia's fault, since Nvidia has been the bright shining light, but he sees the spending pattern as misdirected.

  “We've invested too much money too early in a technology that doesn't scale to the opportunity we need it to deliver.”at 23:01

Shipping, trucking & logistics

• Lois Zabrocky · International Seaways

  Oil tankers are in high demand, and oil inventories will be restored once hostilities end.

  Zabrocky said the large crude carriers, each carrying about 2 million barrels, are in high demand today. She argued that the world produces over 100 million barrels of oil a day, and that energy security is of paramount importance. She expects inventories to be restored once hostilities cease, which would support tanker demand. She also noted that tankers are being attacked in the region: over 25 seafarers have been killed, and about 35 tankers have been disabled, so the situation remains one of heightened hostility.

  “Those vessels are in high demand today... energy security is of paramount importance, and we're going to see... restoration of inventories once we have a cessation of hostilities.”at 37:15