Speaker · Updated
Craig Johnson: latest market views
Piper Sandler
Summary
Craig Johnson is chief market technician at Piper Sandler, known for chart-based technical analysis and S&P 500 market outlooks.
Chorus has 8 views from Craig Johnson across 2 episodes on CNBC Power Lunch since October 30, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Cheniere Energy; bearish on VanEck Semiconductor ETF.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- Cheniere EnergyBullish ·
- VanEck Semiconductor ETFBearish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Semis are in a bear market since June; today's rally is only relief, not a turn.
Johnson says the AI and semiconductor stocks entered a bear market and that the sell-off began in June. He calls today's move a relief rally driven by short covering when news came in slightly better than feared. He argues semiconductors cannot lead the market in a bear market and still have the rest of the market hold up, so the group is not out of the woods on the technicals. He says he still likes AI and is not questioning it.
“You can't have and let me repeat, you cannot have leadership in the market in a bear market like we've got for semiconductors and expect this not to carry through for the rest of the market.”at 8:25
CNBC Power Lunch: CoreWeave AI Rally, NVIDIA Scrutiny and Energy Shipping Risks ·
Money is rotating out of tech into defensive sectors, and the tech selloff has further to run.
Johnson sees money leaving tech and moving into health care, energy and some financials. Based on his firm's research, he calls it a defensive rotation and says the question investors ask most, whether the selloff has gone too far, has a no answer. He says there is still room to fall. He has cut Piper Sandler's tech weighting from 18% to about 14% and advises selling into strength like today's rally.
“The market is rotating. You're taking money out of tech. You're rotating into health care. You're rotating into energy at this point in time. ... It's not. There's still more room to go.”at 9:12
CNBC Power Lunch: CoreWeave AI Rally, NVIDIA Scrutiny and Energy Shipping Risks ·
Energy was upgraded in February; the market underestimated how long the Middle East conflict would last.
Piper Sandler upgraded energy in February when most investors avoided the group. They expected a quick Middle East conflict. Johnson says the conflict has lasted much longer than expected, and that is why energy has been strong. The upgrade is backed by the price action in energy stocks, including the breakouts in LNG and other energy names.
“We upgraded energy in February. Nobody wanted to get on board with energy. They thought this was going to be a quick conflict in The Middle East. It's played out, been much longer.”at 10:17
CNBC Power Lunch: CoreWeave AI Rally, NVIDIA Scrutiny and Energy Shipping Risks ·
Cheniere EnergyBullish
Cheniere's chart shows a large base and a breakout to new highs, which is bullish.
Johnson is a technical analyst and bases this on the chart. A very large base has formed in Cheniere and the stock has just broken out. He buys stocks making new highs and says the same pattern is showing up in other parts of the energy sector. The view comes from the technical setup, not a fundamental forecast.
“on the technical side, a very big base has formed, and we just broke out. We like stocks that make new highs.”at 10:33
CNBC Power Lunch: CoreWeave AI Rally, NVIDIA Scrutiny and Energy Shipping Risks ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
AI growth, build-out and earnings growth are starting to slow even though AI is not going away.
Johnson says the second derivative of AI growth is starting to slow, which matters for market earnings growth next year. He says AI is here to stay, but the growth rate, the pace of the build-out and related parts of the trade will slow. He presents this as the reason CoreWeave's strong results do not change his view that tech has further to fall.
“the second derivative rate of change is starting to slow. AI is here. It's not going away by any means. But the growth rate, the build out, the pace ... it's going to slow.”at 11:35
CNBC Power Lunch: CoreWeave AI Rally, NVIDIA Scrutiny and Energy Shipping Risks ·
Tech concentration is at an extreme and will unwind painfully; rotation out is underway.
Semiconductors reached about 20% and technology about 40% of the investable market, both historical extremes. Market gains have been highly concentrated in tech. Money is rotating out of tech into energy as a hedge against conflict, into health care, and possibly into financials. His model portfolio has cut technology to 18% against 40% for the market and has been rotated into energy and health care. He says extremes like this resolve themselves but tend to be painful, and this is not done.
“Semiconductor stocks had grown to 20% of the total investable market. Technology is 40%. Those are historical extremes.”at 37:59
CNBC Power Lunch: Tech Sell-Off, AI Panic and Market Rotation: Power Lunch ·
VanEck Semiconductor ETFBearish
Semiconductors are in a confirmed downtrend with lower lows and highs; more pain ahead.
The charts of SMH, the SOX, Intel and Nvidia show lower lows and lower highs, which meets his basic definition of a downtrend. Semiconductors had grown to about 20% of the investable market and technology to about 40%, both historical extremes. He says extremes like this tend to resolve painfully, and 'this is not done', so he expects more downside in chip stocks.
“You're making lower lows and lower highs that use your basic definition of a downtrend.”at 38:08
CNBC Power Lunch: Tech Sell-Off, AI Panic and Market Rotation: Power Lunch ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
AI is not dead but is shifting from data center build-out to utilization.
He agrees AI is not going away, but argues the investment cycle is moving from the build-out phase, where capex on data centers and chips drove the trade, to a phase centered on using AI. That change is part of why he expects technology to keep having more pain and downside. He treats the transition as a reason to reduce technology exposure, not as a reason to buy the build-out names.
“I agree AI is not dead. It's not going away. It's just transitioning into now a utilization of it rather than a build out from my perspective.”at 38:20
CNBC Power Lunch: Tech Sell-Off, AI Panic and Market Rotation: Power Lunch ·
Shows
- CNBC Power Lunch · 2 episodes
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