NVIDIA Leadership Shakeup, AI Trade Fallout and OpenAI Valuation 11/12/26

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 123 speakers in other episodes, 109 bullish and 80 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsNeutral

  Nvidia's fundamentals are strong, but leadership and investigation overhang will keep the stock range-bound for six to twelve months.

  She sold her Nvidia shares despite strong fundamentals: she expects about $300B of free cash flow next year, strong revenue growth and mid-70s gross margins. But she thinks the stock won't trade on fundamentals for a while because of the overhang from investigations, leadership changes and potential departures. She expects a six-to-twelve-month trading range and would buy back if a strong new leader gets the company past this.

  “this stock is not gonna trade on fundamentals, I don't think, for a while because you have the overhang of the investigations, of leadership changes, of potential departures.”at 3:28

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning GroupBearish

  Huang's exit removes Nvidia's centrality to the AI trade; national security overhang and weak Kress authority keep it from recovering.

  He sold Nvidia after hours because the reason he owned it, Jensen Huang's leadership at the center of the AI trade, has left. He says Huang ran the company as a company of one, and that Colette Kress could not control decisions because Huang overrode her. He argues the national security implications of the scandal are an overhang that cannot be understated, with unknown meetings and damaged relationships, so Nvidia cannot move as it did or command its centerpiece role in AI. He sees buyers as puzzling and calls it a broken company rather than a broken stock.

  “But then the whole reason that I wanted to own the stock in the first place has left the building.”at 4:58

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  At 10-11x forward earnings with a strong backlog, Nvidia should beat market returns, though competition is a one-to-two-year risk.

  Nvidia is still a top holding for his firm, though they trimmed it. He argues the selloff that broke $200 in late October, after hyperscaler earnings and fears of capex pullbacks, has already flushed out most sellers. At 10-11 times forward earnings with a large backlog and infrastructure, he thinks it is highly probable the stock will earn above-market returns. He sees questions one to two years out about competition, possibly from Broadcom or Alphabet's TPU.

  “But, yeah, 10, 11 forward earnings, the backlog, and current infrastructure, it's it's highly probable that you're going to get it above market rate of return in the future off this name.”at 7:29

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementUncertain

  Nvidia's selloff is already extreme and it has no valuation premium, but a bad successor could keep it from trading near $200 again.

  Nvidia fell 23% in ten days, the worst ten-day drop in four years and in the bottom 2% of rolling ten-day periods since the IPO, with about a trillion dollars of market cap lost, so much selling has already happened. He notes the stock has traded below the market multiple for 24 months, so there is no premium to lose. He is holding because his cost basis is very low. He warns that a wrong pick for the next leader could repeat the precedents of HP in 2010 under Apotheker and Intel in 2018 after the CEO exit, when TSMC took the fab lead and the stock fell about 90%, leaving Nvidia unable to trade near $200 again.

  “if they make the wrong call on the next leader, you could literally put somebody in who does something like what happened at HP or like what happened at Intel... we might never see NVIDIA trade at 200 ever again as long as we live.”at 12:44

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBearish

  Nvidia faces the most export and China-related scrutiny of any chip company, the biggest risk to its multiple.

  He argues that the scrutiny over Nvidia's operations in certain jurisdictions is a bigger risk for Nvidia than for peers because it is the biggest player and will have the world's biggest microscope on it. Nvidia's roughly 11% of sales from outside the US and Taiwan is a double-digit exposure. He says the question for analysts is what multiple they would have to zero out for sensitive jurisdictions. He notes analysts have already cut price targets before their estimates, so the worst case may be priced in.

  “I think it's a bigger risk for NVIDIA because NVIDIA is the biggest player and will be under the most scrutiny and have the world's biggest microscope directed at it.”at 19:47

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Nvidia's selloff is not a demand or fundamental problem; next quarter should be very good.

  Link argues the chip-sector money flows are rotation, not a demand problem. The Nvidia selloff is not a fundamental issue. She expects next week's quarter to be very good, and points to strong free cash flow and a large buyback program as support. She says the money is staying in the sector and expects flows to continue.

  “The money wants to stay in the sector because it's not a demand problem. This is not a fundamental issue at NVIDIA... I expect the quarter next week to be very good.”at 44:18

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  No rival product matches Nvidia's Vera Rubin roadmap; its lead will not be challenged in three months.

  Brown argues that no product that serious AI practitioners would call better than Nvidia's Vera Rubin cluster exists, and that Nvidia's roadmap is not materially going to change. He says a rival, such as an AI-specific chip maker or any other semiconductor player that can match Nvidia's build, would change his mind. But he does not expect that to happen in three months. He acknowledges AMD has CPU sales and says catching up is conceivable but not a near-term story.

  “would say is a better product than the Vera cluster, like the Rubin. Like, that road map is not materially gonna change... I will change my mind, but I don't think that that's something that we're gonna hear about in three months.”at 47:01

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Nvidia's post-news selloff formed a constructive hammer candle, so the stock looks positive near term.

  Baruch reads the daily chart for Nvidia. The stock fell about 10% before the open after news of Jensen Huang's resignation, but it closed well off that low and left a hammer pattern with a long lower wick. He calls this a very constructive technical pattern and says the stock is positive. He adds that he is not trying to catch a falling knife. His firm was a big holder that trimmed early this year.

  “There's a little bit of a hammer pattern in... On the daily tape for for NVIDIA... That's a very constructive technical pattern... So right now, I think this is positive.”at 48:48

Apple

Across the shows: 52 speakers in other episodes, 66 bullish and 40 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Apple is the trade of the year, the anti-AI mega-cap that is absorbing market cap as investors flee AI volatility.

  Apple kept rising while Sandisk, Micron, Western Digital and Nvidia sold off, making it the anti-AI large cap tech trade. It is absorbing market cap as investors who want to stay in tech avoid the daily swings of the hyperscaler and AI trade. He calls it the Pepsi to the AI trade's Coke: growth may not justify a 30-something multiple, but investors trust that the company will execute and avoid Chinese spy risk.

  “This is the anti AI large cap tech trade, and it's literally the trade of the year. Maybe it doesn't deserve the multiple it's now trading at, but we can all agree.”at 22:44

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning GroupBullish

  Apple has become the default safety trade for money leaving semiconductors, up twice as much as the next Magnificent Seven stock.

  Apple has been the safety trade since about July. When semiconductors blew up, investors had to take cash out of semis and needed somewhere to put it. Apple was the answer because investors trusted it not to disappoint, a safer choice than a ten-year Treasury. It is up twice as much as the next best Magnificent Seven name.

  “and the answer was, well, I know Apple won't disappoint me at least, and so it's safe to put my money there instead of putting it in a ten year treasury.”at 24:04

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBearish

  Apple is expensive: about 20% above its 200-day average with a historically high multiple and soft Mac demand reports.

  Apple is a top holding for his firm, but he plays devil's advocate. The stock is trading nearly 20% above its 200-day moving average, and the multiple is historically high. Stories about lukewarm demand for the new Macs are circulating. He says it is not a disaster, but he has missed it and sees more upside elsewhere in tech. If the stock pulls back, he would take a look.

  “Apple is a top holding of ours... is trading nearly 20% above its two hundred day moving average. The multiple is historically high.”at 24:29

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBearish

  She won't buy Apple: its valuation is stretched and services growth has slowed for two quarters in a row.

  Asked why she does not buy Apple, she points to its valuation and to services growth slowing for the second quarter in a row. Services is the higher-margin part of the business, so the slowdown matters for margins. She does not see Apple as an attractive way to replace Nvidia.

  “It's just been valuation and services growth slowing for the second quarter in a row. So to me, that's your higher margin product.”at 25:08

Micron Technology

Across the shows: 27 speakers in other episodes, 26 bullish and 16 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Micron is a cleaner buy: down 35% from its high, trading at five times earnings, with a buyback likely at early-December earnings.

  She added to Micron because it is down about 35% from its high while its fundamentals are very attractive, and it trades at five times earnings. She expects Micron to announce a buyback when it reports earnings in early December. She sees Micron as a clean fundamentals and cheap-stock story, unlike Nvidia.

  “And I think they're going to announce a buyback in... When they report earnings in early December.”at 4:06

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Micron has shaken off the worst selling; a buyback lockup ending December 9 should make buybacks a driver.

  He loves the Micron buy. The stock is only down about 3.5% today and is above its 200-day moving average, so it has shaken off the worst of the recent selling. Chips Act infrastructure build-out makes it too important to ignore. He says a buyback lockup ends December 9, and he expects buybacks to be a driver for a name like Micron.

  “I love the Micron buy... There's a lockup on buyback that that I think ends December 9. I expect to see buybacks of being a driver in in a name like Micron.”at 25:19

Broadcom

Across the shows: 14 speakers in other episodes, 13 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Broadcom's AI business is humming, with over $100B of AI revenue and possibly $20 EPS in out years; cleaner than Nvidia.

  She owns Broadcom and likes that it is diversified, but its AI business is growing fast. She expects more than $100 billion in AI revenue alone, and Broadcom could have about $20 a share in earnings power in the out years. It is not as cheap as Nvidia, but its story is much cleaner, which is why it is attracting flows as Nvidia struggles.

  “I like the fact that they're very diversified, but their AI business is absolutely humming. I mean, they're gonna do north of a $100,000,000,000 in just their AI revenue alone, and they too could have $20 a share in earnings power in the out years.”at 15:34

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 71 speakers in other episodes, 72 bullish and 34 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Meta trades around 18 times earnings while growing revenue about 26% with visible monetization, so she added to it.

  Meta has been caught up in the AI data center spending frenzy, but the stock trades at about 18 times earnings while revenue grows about 26%. She says Meta is seeing monetization from its spending. She added to Meta as a Magnificent Seven name that could benefit if the data center spending pauses, though a pause would only matter if it extends.

  “And yet the stock is trading at about 18 times, and they're growing revenues about 26%. They are seeing monetization.”at 18:33

Anthropic

Across the shows: 116 speakers in other episodes, 161 bullish and 91 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Anthropic's IPO will price at the low end, around $1.1-1.3 trillion, which leaves upside after listing.

  She thinks the Anthropic IPO will not come out at $2 trillion. It will be at the low end, around $1.1 to $1.3 trillion, which she calls great because it gives investors upside afterwards. She thinks that is why the news about Anthropic was so positive.

  “It's not gonna come out at 2,000,000,000,000. It's gonna be at the low end, 1.1 or 1.3. That's great. That gives you upside, afterwards.”at 32:53

Vertiv Holdings Co

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 8 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Vertiv is worth adding: revenues and backlogs are accelerating, and the stock has pulled back after strong results.

  Baruch suggests this name as an alternative to trimming NVIDIA. He says the company is seeing revenues and backlogs accelerate. The stock rose about 20% after its report three weeks ago, then made new lows with the wider group. He says his firm may add more soon, and he treats holding above the 200-day level as constructive. The transcript says 'Veritiv', which appears to be a transcription of Vertiv, the data-center power and cooling company.

  “Veritiv is a name to think about adding... For us, we may be looking to add more soon, but they are seeing revenues and backlogs accelerate.”at 35:30

Vistra

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Vistra is a buy: its per-customer pricing gives it a pricing advantage, and the firm owns it.

  Baruch says Vistra prices per customer, which gives it an advantage on pricing. He groups it with another power name he likes, and says his firm owns both. He treats the stock's recent holding above its 200-day level as a positive sign, and he is paired with the power-sector buying argument.

  “Vistra is another name. I mean, they they price per customer, which gives them an advantage in in pricing wise. I I love those two names. We own them.”at 35:58

Alphabet

Across the shows: 74 speakers in other episodes, 67 bullish and 49 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Alphabet's TPUs could become a household name like HBM; the firm owns it despite weak earnings.

  Baruch concedes the stock was hit hard after earnings because it missed on every revenue segment except cloud, which he calls concerning. Looking one to two years out, he thinks Google's TPU chips could become very relevant, comparing their potential to high bandwidth memory becoming a household name. He says Alphabet is an interesting place and his firm owns it.

  “it missed on every revenue segment other than cloud. That is concerning. But if you're looking further out one, two, past that one, two years, the TPU that they're building, and I think that could be something that becomes very, very relevant.”at 45:09

Qualcomm

Across the shows: 8 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning GroupBullish

  Qualcomm is positioned for AI compute moving from data centers into cellular networks and devices.

  Ethridge says compute should move from the data center into cellular networks and then onto the devices themselves. He wanted to buy Qualcomm for that reason, as one way to diversify semiconductor exposure beyond the data center. He presents this as the case for the stock, which he would own rather than buy in a basket.

  “there's the opportunity for compute to move into the cellular networks and then onto the actual devices themselves, which is the reason I wanted to buy Qualcomm.”at 46:14

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Across the shows: 10 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 11 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning GroupBullish

  Owning the semiconductor ETF beats picking which chip firm wins as data-center demand diversifies.

  Ethridge says he wants to diversify semiconductor exposure away from the data center because demand will move to autonomous driving, cellular networks and devices. He cannot tell which company will get the next dollars, whether AMD, Broadcom or someone else. So he thinks it makes more sense to invest at the ETF level than to bet on the obvious direction. He says the SMH ETF is probably the vehicle, given Nvidia's CUDA lock-in.

  “as you're looking to diversify where those dollars will flow to, it makes more sense to just invest at the ETF level rather than trying to figure out where the obvious direction is.”at 46:14

Advanced Micro Devices

Across the shows: 20 speakers in other episodes, 21 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning GroupUncertain

  AMD's strong results prove it is a secondary Nvidia option, but its stretched valuation makes switching hard.

  Ethridge says AMD's earnings were strong because they showed AMD now has a credible secondary option to Nvidia. He doubts AMD will catch Nvidia on the chip side, saying that is not a 2027 story. He also says that switching from Nvidia to AMD is hard because AMD already trades at about 60 times forward earnings after rising around 175% over the past year, while Nvidia had been underperforming the market.

  “part of the reason AMD's earnings release was so strong and the response to their earnings release was so strong was because they have proved that they have a secondary option now.”at 47:32

Natera

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Natera's 26% drop from highs after a beat-and-raise quarter is an overreaction.

  Link says Natera is down 26% from its highs despite a great quarter that beat expectations and raised guidance. She calls the selloff an overreaction, which implies the quarter's results justify a rebound.

  “Natera, down 26% from its highs. Great quarter beat and raised. I think it's an overreaction.”at 50:01

US stock market outlook

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line Capital

  The Nasdaq trades at 18-19 times earnings, about 1.5 standard deviations below its long-run average, so tech won't be abandoned.

  Money leaving Nvidia has to go somewhere, and investors don't want to abandon tech. The Nasdaq trades at 18-19 times earnings, about one and a half standard deviations below its long-run average, so it looks cheap. Investors will rotate into names like Broadcom rather than leave the sector, and Nvidia's problems do not mean the broader tech cycle is over.

  “The Nasdaq is trading at 18, 19 times earnings, which is one and a half standard deviations below its long run average.”at 16:34

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line Capital

  Nvidia's problems don't mean the AI infrastructure cycle is over; demand isn't ending, and Broadcom's revenue grew 86%.

  Bill argues that Nvidia's troubles do not mean the cycle is over or that demand is ending. Broadcom grew revenue 86% last quarter, which shows the AI buildout is still strong. He said the selling that followed hyperscaler earnings and capex-pullback fears had already flushed out most sellers.

  “Just because there's NVIDIA problems doesn't mean the cycle is over... In fact, I mean, Broadcom grew revenues last quarter 86%.”at 16:34

IPOs, M&A & deal activity

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Chastened AI valuations at IPO are good for public investors because they leave upside from listing day.

  He sides with the public investor. He says it is good news when valuations are chastened and companies come public more reasonably than at the top of the range. Employees and early VCs will do fine, but public investors need upside from the first day of trading. He thinks a round that is not 20% higher automatically is a positive, which is why the OpenAI round at the same valuation is good news.

  “So I'm always gonna think it's good news when these valuations are chastened and these companies come public more reasonably than the top of the range.”at 32:22

Power demand & the grid

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Grid upgrades of about $1 trillion through 2030 are needed; power stocks sold in sympathy with AI should be bought.

  She argues the AI data center buildout will still need a trillion dollars of grid upgrades through 2030, because about 75% of the grid is over 25 years old and was built in the 1950s and 60s with a 50-to-80-year shelf life. Power is also short, which pushes demand toward nuclear, coal, renewables and natural gas. Power stocks are down 25-30% from their highs in sympathy with the AI pause, but the cycle is not over, so she thinks they are attractive.

  “we're gonna spend a trillion dollars between now and 2030 on upgrading the grid. 75% of the grid is over 25 years old.”at 34:42

Natural gas & LNG

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Natural gas will be the long-term winner in power demand, though pipeline capacity is currently lacking.

  Power is short, so the country needs nuclear, coal, renewables and natural gas. She thinks natural gas will be the long-term winner, but there are not enough pipelines at the moment to deliver it to where power is needed.

  “I actually think natural gas is gonna be the long term winner. We just don't [have] enough pipelines at this moment in time.”at 35:12