AI Relief Rally, Nvidia Governance and CoreWeave Earnings

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 107 speakers in other episodes, 89 bullish and 62 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Nvidia is cheap at a forward multiple just under 12; he owns it and is not selling.

  Jim owns Nvidia and is not selling despite internal debate. The forward multiple is just under 12, the lowest in ten years. Earnings growth is projected around 75% in the year ahead, after guidance for about 80% top-line growth, and supply is the constraint. The PEG is very low, and the company should generate over $300 billion of free cash flow in the next twelve months, more than all but 32 S&P 500 companies. Customers want the product. He calls a $500 target aggressive and a $200 target too low. A CEO departure is possible but not his base case, and he thinks it may already be priced in.

  “I own the stock. I'm not selling the stock... Where we come out of it is looking at the forward multiple right now just under 12. That's the lowest it's been in ten years.”at 4:33

• Rob Sechan · NewEdge WealthBullish

  Nvidia's problem is governance, not demand; CUDA moat and 90% share protect the business.

  Rob's firm owns Nvidia and he personally doubled down on the position. The AI market rallied strongly this week regardless of Nvidia's early-week drop, so demand and the business are not the issue. The CEO governance overhang may be elongated and should be taken seriously. But a new CEO would inherit one of the best jobs in America. The CUDA architecture cannot be replaced, every developer builds on it, and Nvidia holds about 90% of advanced chips, so the next leader should be able to navigate the overhang.

  “So this is not a demand issue. This is not a business issue. This is a governance issue, one that I think you have to take seriously.”at 7:22

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 92 speakers in other episodes, 28 bullish and 103 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  CoreWeave pausing its stock sale was a powerful catalyst that reignited the momentum trade.

  CoreWeave's announcement pausing its previously announced stock sale was, in Joe's view, a powerful catalyst. It reignited the momentum factor, which he calls exactly the news the market needed after the recent volatility and correction.

  “The announcement on pausing the previously announced stock sale for Core Weave. I think that without question was a powerful catalyst, and it reignited once again the momentum factor.”at 9:02

• Anastasia Amoroso · Partners GroupBullish

  CoreWeave's margins are improving and backlog is rising; contracted compute delivery looks intact.

  CoreWeave beat on revenue, EBITDA and operating margins. Investors had worried about leverage, higher cost of capital and whether the company could deliver its contracted backlog. Margins are improving, the backlog is rising, and there is no sign the company is walking away from delivering contracted compute. Across the neoclouds, operating margins around 16% leave room even if rates rise.

  “But what we got today, margins are improving. The backlog is actually rising, and it doesn't seem like they're sort of walking away from the ability to deliver that compute that has been contracted.”at 10:32

Cisco Systems

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  Strong AI networking demand should lift Cisco, and its price is near an attractive valuation.

  Joe says the past conservative guidance was the company's problem and that the stock peaked in June with the parabolic AI names. He still expects strong AI-driven demand for networking gear, which is the mechanism. He adds that the stock is near a valuation and price level he finds attractive ahead of earnings.

  “I still think you're gonna see strong demand here on the AI side for networking, and I think the stock is close to a valuation and a price level that I think is attractive.”at 43:28

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Cisco's valuation reset after a rerating leaves significant upside, despite conservative guidance.

  Jim says Cisco is a conservative company that has performed steadily for about twelve years, and he expects that to continue. He argues the stock has been rerated and now trades around 18 times forward earnings. Because that multiple has already reset, he sees significant room to the upside.

  “I expect that they will. And in terms of the valuation reset, it's now at about 18 times forward. So there is... There's been a lot of rerating here, and I think it leaves room to the upside, significant room.”at 43:55

Oracle

Across the shows: 37 speakers in other episodes, 10 bullish and 36 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Oracle retains debt-market access with manageable CDS; stock is primed to rally on CoreWeave.

  CoreWeave is shut out of the debt market, but Oracle is not. Oracle's five-year credit default swaps are just under 300 basis points, which is a lot but nothing like CoreWeave. Oracle still has capital-markets access, having issued $10 billion of equity two weeks ago and saying it is pretty much done. Demand for the data centers being built is spoken for. Oracle is a stock that has been looking for an excuse to go higher, and CoreWeave gives it that excuse.

  “They're kinda shut out of the debt market, but Oracle is not... Oracle certainly still has access to the capital markets... So I look at Oracle, and I think it's just a stock that's been looking for an excuse to go higher.”at 11:49

Teradyne

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  Buying more Teradyne; momentum factor should lead the stock higher into year-end.

  Joe was stopped out of his Teradyne position during Thursday's volatility and then bought a bunch more. He is buying more because he believes the momentum factor will lead chip equipment stocks higher into the end of the year. He also thinks momentum has already seen its worst moment in the fall.

  “I bought a bunch of [Teradyne]. I'm not gonna sit here and continually tell the viewers I bought more more [Teradyne], but I'm buying more [Teradyne] to answer your question because I do believe that is that momentum factor that leads us higher into the end of the year.”at 15:40

Quanta Services

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Quanta Services is an opportunity after the AI-peripheral selloff; he initiated a position.

  Jim initiated a position in Quanta Services and doubled up on Amazon. The selling has spread beyond semis to everything peripheral to AI, including industrials. Heavy money has exited through a narrow door, and volatility may persist. But names like Quanta, Nvidia or Micron are an opportunity now.

  “something like a quanta or something like an Nvidia or a Micron is an opportunity now.”at 20:04

Valero Energy

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBearish

  Exiting Valero as oil's post-election slide continues; no energy adds except natural gas.

  Joe personally owns Valero, which he has held for a very long time, and is looking for the exit. Oil was $110.48 on October 20 and fell to $96 on election day, and has fallen precipitously since. He thinks that move will continue and the oil trend is reversing, so he would not add energy exposure except natural gas.

  “I'm looking for the exit on Valero, which I've held for a very long time.”at 28:17

Devon Energy

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Rob Sechan · NewEdge WealthBullish

  Devon's low-cost Permian barrels make it an easy hold; the trade was a cost bet, not oil.

  Easy money in oil has been made, but Devon was never an oil price bet. It is a cost bet at about eight times earnings. Low-cost Permian barrels make money at prices that hurt others. That gives the company financial flexibility to buy back shares and pay dividends, which makes it an easy hold for maintaining exposure to the space.

  “Easy money and oil has been made, but this was never an oil price bet. It's a cost bet at eight times earnings.”at 29:35

EQT

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  EQT is beaten down with natural gas lagging; this is the right level to add shares.

  EQT has been in a precipitous one-year downtrend, and natural gas has not performed. Joe already owns the stock and said yesterday was his final trade, but he would add to it at this level, which he thinks is the right one to buy.

  “EQT has been in a precipitous downtrend... you'll see that it really hasn't performed. Natural gas has not performed... I'd like to buy it. I think this is the right level to buy it.”at 30:08

Corning

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  Corning's optical fiber is already on order for two years, insulating it from a data center slowdown.

  Even if the data center build-out slows, purchase orders for optical fiber have already been placed and are scheduled for delivery over the next two years. Joe says the supply constraint shows up around 2028 and 2029. Corning has been down since its parabolic move in June, and he likes where the stock sits now.

  “Optical fiber has been scheduled for a company like Corning over the next two years... They've already put through the purchase orders on the optical fiber. Over the next two years, it's gonna be delivered.”at 31:13

Amgen

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Rob Sechan · NewEdge WealthBullish

  Amgen's best year since 1999 is outside AI; the firm owns it for durable, growing franchises.

  Amgen's best year since 1999 is going unnoticed because the market is focused on AI, which is exactly why they own it. Healthcare is the other side of the barbell and has had a terrific year. Amgen has a durable base franchise, a growing obesity franchise and a healthy dividend, and it continues to perform incredibly well outside AI infrastructure.

  “Nobody's talking about it because of AI. That's exactly why we own it. We thought health care, the other side of this barbell, which has had a terrific year, was going to do fantastic.”at 31:57

AbbVie

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  AbbVie delivers twice the market return for a third of the risk; it does well every year.

  AbbVie's five-year return is about 25%, against roughly 11.5% for the S&P 500, and its beta is 0.33. That is twice the market return for a third of the market risk, which is what you want in a stock. Every year, the stock does well.

  “Every year, this stock does well. Five year return, 25%, S&P 11 and a half percent... Twice the market return for one third of the market risk. That's what you want in a stock.”at 32:44

O'Reilly Automotive

• Rob Sechan · NewEdge WealthBullish

  O'Reilly should benefit from consumers repairing rather than replacing, though it has some legacy exposure.

  Rob groups O'Reilly with AutoZone as a name that wins when strained consumers fix what they have, which is the repair-versus-replace trade. He adds a caveat that the company may still carry some legacy exposure, which he raises as a possible drag. He says he likes the trade.

  “That's the repair versus replace trade. I like those.”at 37:34

AutoZone

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 0 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Rob Sechan · NewEdge WealthBullish

  AutoZone benefits from the repair-versus-replace shift as strained consumers fix what they already own.

  Rob argues that when consumers get strained they fix what they have instead of replacing it, which is the repair-versus-replace trade. He names AutoZone alongside O'Reilly as the beneficiaries and says he likes those names. The argument rests on consumer behavior under pressure, not on a company-specific number.

  “That's the repair versus replace trade. I like those.”at 37:34

The Home Depot

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 7 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Rob Sechan · NewEdge WealthBearish

  Doubts home-improvement stocks like Home Depot will see repair-trade benefits while rates rise.

  Rob says the repair-versus-replace benefit that helps AutoZone and O'Reilly is harder to believe for home stocks like the Home Depot and Lowe's. His reason is that rates may keep rising, which weighs on housing activity. He describes this as a more difficult call even though his group already owns some of these names.

  “I find it a little more difficult even though we own the other two to believe in the environment that we're in with rates possibly rising as much as they are, that you're gonna see the same, benefits in the home stocks, the lows in the Home Depots.”at 37:40

Costco Wholesale

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  Costco's special dividend signals confidence, and the stock will take out its May high.

  Joe reads the special dividend and buyback as a sign of confidence from a company with strong cash flow generation, which he calls a holiday gift to shareholders. Looking at the longer chart, he says Costco will take out its May high and calls it a momentum stock. The case rests on cash-flow strength and the technical view.

  “This is about confidence. This is about a company with strong cash flow generation. ... Costco is going to take out that high.”at 40:10

Monolithic Power Systems

• Rob Sechan · NewEdge WealthBullish

  Monolithic Power is a key beneficiary because every AI chip needs precisely delivered power.

  Rob's case is a mechanism: every AI chip needs power delivered precisely, and Monolithic Power is the company doing it. That makes it a direct part of the AI chip build-out. He gives no numbers or valuation, so the case is brief.

  “Every AI chip needs power delivered precisely. Monolithic power is the one doing it.”at 45:02

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners

  Data centers being built are spoken for; demand is there, so the issue is not demand.

  Hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon say the data centers coming online are spoken for. Alphabet's cloud business is up 100%, growing like a weed. The demand is there, and that is what matters, so it is not a demand issue.

  “the data centers that are currently being brought online and currently being built are spoken for in terms of demand... The demand is there, and ultimately, that's what matters.”at 12:20

• Rob Sechan · NewEdge Wealth

  Data center build-out is a timing issue, not a demand issue; compute owners can price it higher.

  Compute will get built because demand is there. The builders have been rerated because the market questions how long the build-out will take, due to policy and financing. Haves accrue to those who have compute in the ground and can price it higher. Customers have enormous willingness to finance the demand, and capital markets have to stay friendly. Circular financing is a concern to watch.

  “What I can assure you is I think because the demand's there, I think this compute does get built. It's a timing issue, not a demand issue.”at 21:02

• Anastasia Amoroso · Partners Group

  Permitted, leased, powered data center capacity commands a rising scarcity premium; vacancy near 1%.

  Existing data center providers that have the permit, the lease and compute in place command a scarcity premium that has gone up. Some of those data centers have traded relatively better in the market. Vacancy is about 1%, which explains why the premium is rising.

  “We do absolutely think the scarcity premium for existing data center providers who have the permit, who have the lease, who have the compute in place, that scarcity premium has absolutely gone up.”at 21:14

AI chips & semiconductors

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  Semiconductor selling from the fall has likely seen its worst; semis bottomed for the rest of the year.

  Positioning has been cleaned out. Speculative hedge funds aggressively cut leverage in the semis names that had underperformed since the end of June. Today, names like Micron and Marvell are up double digits. He expects two bottoms for the rest of the year and says a rollover in 2027 is possible, but he thinks the selling pressure of the fall has seen its worst.

  “But do I think the selling pressure of the fall has seen its worst? Yeah. I do.”at 15:40

• Anastasia Amoroso · Partners Group

  Semiconductor earnings have not peaked; the repricing makes the setup more attractive.

  Anastasia thinks semiconductor earnings are not peaking and will keep growing. Expectations of roughly 110% year-over-year earnings growth, then another 30-40% in each following year, are largely priced in. Semis now trade at the lowest P/E since 2022, so the setup looks more attractive. She cautions that not all chips benefit equally: GPU demand may fall relative to CPUs, and about 88% of agentic workflows depend on CPU and storage or memory chips, so position carefully.

  “I don't think the semiconductor earnings have peaked. You know, I think that is going to continue, and I think what has happened over the last couple of months, we've priced that in.”at 16:31

US rates & the Fed

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners

  The Fed should do 50 basis points in December and then stop, as oil's drop feeds through.

  Diesel is working through trucking and food, but crude oil is down about 15% in about a week, which will eventually trickle through to prices. He would prefer the Fed get in front of it with a 50 basis point move in December and then stop. The 10-year yield at 5.0% is already pricing in the news, and it is 30 basis points lower than a month ago.

  “Let them do 50. I'd love it if they did 50 basis points in December, got in front of it, and stopped.”at 24:53

• Rob Sechan · NewEdge Wealth

  The Fed's next move will be 25 basis points, not 50, depending on PCE and oil prices.

  The market is repricing higher rates, which is bad for a broadening-out trade. A 50 basis point move would effectively admit the October pause was a mistake, and he doesn't think the Fed will do that. The size depends on what PCE shows and where oil prices go, so it is 25 unless those data push it toward 50.

  “[There won't be a 50.] There will be 25. It depends on what we see in PCE. It depends on what we see in oil prices, and then you'll be able to tell me whether they should do 50 or 25.”at 26:07

AI: overall outlook

• Anastasia Amoroso · Partners Group

  AI is at a seminal moment, with adoption, innovation, lower costs and higher intelligence.

  Every layer of AI infrastructure, including Anthropic and OpenAI, has to work. Anthropic seems on target for an $80 billion annual revenue run rate, compared with about $50 billion for OpenAI. Adoption is accelerating along with innovation, lower cost and higher intelligence, which drives more adoption.

  “These things have to work, and I do think we're the seminal moment for AI. We've got adoption. You've got innovation. You've got lower cost and higher intelligence.”at 11:05

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners

  Leveraged AI trade unwind and pod-fund selling appear to be ending; a pause that refreshes.

  Major long-short pod-based hedge funds had a terrible October as the highly concentrated, leveraged AI trade unwound, particularly in semis, and this also happened in South Korea. That sets the stage for consolidation, which is the pause that refreshes. The technical selling force appears to be coming to an end.

  “There's been a technical force that's been out there selling, and it looks like it's coming to an end.”at 18:45

Power demand & the grid

• Anastasia Amoroso · Partners Group

  Grid interconnection takes five to six years; the power bottleneck is a long-term trade.

  Interconnection queues now take five or six years to get in line for a grid connection. Anything that resolves the bottleneck, such as bringing your own power or investing in companies addressing it, is a long-term trade not to give up on. It is a long-term issue for AI power demand.

  “on the power side, Scott, this is a long term issue. If you look at the interconnection queues, it still takes now five or six years to be in line for connection to the grid.”at 21:35

US stock market outlook

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  Rotation back to the AI trade will not be a one-day event and will run longer.

  Joe is looking at speculative hedge fund flows. The broadening-out trade expected to dominate the rest of the year is being replaced by the AI trade. S&P equal weight was up only 63 basis points while the momentum ETF rose 4.5% today. He thinks the basket is moving back to AI, and that it has further to run than one day.

  “I think it's got further in duration than a one day event.”at 22:57

US consumer

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners

  Consumer is strained but still spending, held up by a strong jobs market.

  Jim pushes back on the record credit card debt point. He notes that debt, GDP and population have all risen, and that the consumer is strained but still consuming. He points to restaurants and airports as evidence. He attributes the spending to a very strong jobs market, which is the mechanism he gives for why strain has not stopped spending.

  “The consumer is feeling strained, but it's not stopping the consumer from consuming. Period. End of story. That's that's because the jobs market. I mean, the jobs market is incredibly strong.”at 38:30