Stocks Fall As Oil Spikes… And White House CTO On Trump Science Summit 10/8/26

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF

• Rebecca Patterson · Council on Foreign RelationsBearish

  Brazil's rally is extended; she'd sell the news if Bolsonaro wins and is wary of chasing.

  She argues the Brazil trade is a referendum on fiscal policy. Bolsonaro promised more fiscal austerity than Lula, which would reduce debt-downgrade and yield risk, but his father reversed a similar promise. The rally has been large, and she thinks the risk of a populist move after a win is high, so she would sell any pop on a Bolsonaro win and be careful chasing.

  “If you get another pop on that, if Bolsonaro wins, I would sell that news because the whole thing is a referendum on fiscal policy.”at 44:00

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Brazil is cheap at 9.5x earnings; he would add on a Bolsonaro win and likes Brazil even after the rally.

  Brazilian equities trade at about 9.5 times earnings. If fiscal austerity follows, or policy merely returns to neutral, he thinks the currency can rally. He would wait for the reaction to a Bolsonaro win but then add. He also cites Brazil's resource trade as a long-tail positive and says he likes Brazil even if something is already priced in.

  “But I just look at Brazilian equities at nine and a half times, and I think if there is fiscal austerity and there's even just at least getting back to neutral from where policy is now, I think that means the currency can rally.”at 45:06

SLB

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  SLB is a buy: Middle East exposure is a risk, but its data center business is growing.

  Seymour likes SLB but flags real exposure to the Gulf, which has been hit by the Iran conflict and Saudi attacks. He says the Gulf and pipeline damage matter, so investors should listen closely to SLB's guidance when it reports in a couple of weeks. He also points to its exposure to data centers and newer business lines as a reason it is an investment rather than a trade.

  “I like SLB. ... It's also a company that has a lot of exposure to data center and some exciting new parts of business.”at 5:38

VanEck Oil Services ETF

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  Oil services ETF OIH and drillers do not act well on oil swings; integrated majors do better.

  Nathan says large integrated oil companies perform well whether oil goes up or down, so they are an investment on a trade frame. OIH, which holds the drillers and services, does not act well many times. He expects the large integrators to come in eventually but says they are just working for now. The implication is that the OIH is the weaker way to play higher oil prices.

  “They act well whether oil goes up or down. It's the OIH, and it's like the drillers that do not act well many times.”at 7:26

Chipotle Mexican Grill

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead StrategiesBearish

  Chipotle is in a secular downtrend, unlike Starbucks, which looks oversold.

  Stockton compares the two stocks on their charts. Starbucks shows a candlestick reversal pattern after a 15% decline and looks overdone. Chipotle does not show that pattern and is in a secular downtrend at this point, so the merger headline does not improve its technical picture.

  “So it seems like Starbucks might be overdone on the downside, whereas Chipotle is more of a secular downtrend at this point.”at 26:41

Starbucks

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead StrategiesBullish

  Starbucks looks oversold after a 15% drop, with a bullish candle pattern on the merger-news reaction.

  Stockton says the restaurant and retail group is mostly oversold on an intermediate-term basis. She suggests watching where Starbucks closed relative to the day's high-low range after the merger headline. Starbucks is about 15% off a recent high, and it closed in the upper part of its range, a candlestick pattern she likes to see after a big downdraft. She therefore thinks Starbucks might be overdone on the downside.

  “So it seems like Starbucks might be overdone on the downside, whereas Chipotle is more of a secular downtrend at this point.”at 26:41

Space Exploration Technologies

Across the shows: 7 speakers in other episodes, 9 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  SpaceX is ahead of everyone; he is long and will overlook governance concerns.

  Seymour says he is long SpaceX and a believer in Starlink. He cites recent successes recovering craft as evidence of execution. He says SpaceX is so far ahead of everyone else in the space sector that he has set aside corporate governance concerns he might normally have, because it is the only company of its kind and too big and too important to ignore. He notes that the valuation depends largely on AI and ex-AI, which made today a day to question it.

  “I'm long SpaceX, and I'm a believer in Starlink.”at 32:23

Constellation Energy

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Constellation benefits from Texas's green light for data centers and its nuclear and gas power.

  He owns Constellation Energy and likes what it is doing in Texas. He sees a data center build-out, where Texas has a green light, paired with nuclear and natural gas depending on which is most cost effective. He argues the country needs to build out infrastructure, and that nuclear is a strong story alongside data centers.

  “where, you know, I own Constellation Energy. I love what they're doing in Texas.”at 39:19

The Goldman Sachs Group

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead StrategiesBullish

  Goldman Sachs offers a compelling trade: support-to-resistance ratio around its 50-day averages is favorable.

  She zooms in on Goldman Sachs as an example of the bank pullback setup. Measured against its 50-day moving averages, the distance from support to resistance gives roughly the 3-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio she likes, which makes it pretty compelling as a trade. This sits within a bank-sector oversold setup ahead of earnings.

  “...if you wanted to zoom in on one like Goldman Sachs, the ratio between support and then the distance to resistance... is really pretty compelling as a trade.”at 41:23

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Petrobras is an asset play and an efficiency play, so he is doubling down on it.

  As his final trade he doubles down on Brazil through Petrobras, which he calls an asset play and an efficiency play. Little supporting detail is given beyond those two claims.

  “Let me double down on Brazil and just say PBR brine is not blue ribbon, but it's Petrobras. I think it's an asset play. I think it's an efficiency play.”at 46:00

GitLab

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead StrategiesBullish

  GitLab is in a long-term turnaround in software, so it is a buy.

  Named as her final trade. She describes GitLab as a long-term turnaround in the software space. Little supporting evidence is given beyond the thesis itself.

  “I'm gonna go with GitLab, which is ticker GTLB. It's a long term turnaround in the software space.”at 46:15

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Rebecca Patterson · Council on Foreign RelationsBullish

  XLE is a new hedge against political risk and inflation, so she is buying it.

  She names XLE as her final trade and frames it as a political risk hedge and an inflation hedge. The context is the oil spike tied to the US-Iran conflict. She gives little detailed evidence beyond the hedge framing.

  “New political risk hedge, inflation hedge, XLE.”at 46:21

Alphabet

Across the shows: 7 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBullish

  Google's new enterprise agent and a likely consumer agent should be a catalyst for the stock.

  Google just released an enterprise agent. He expects a consumer version soon, comparing it to Meta's Muse, and sees that as a catalyst for Google. The argument rests on competitive product momentum in AI agents.

  “They just released an enterprise agent today. I think they're gonna probably have a consumer one coming out in not so distant future like the meta muse, and I think that's gonna be a great catalyst for Google.”at 46:39

Oil & fuels

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal Media

  Without US deterrence in the Gulf, crude must carry a geopolitical risk premium.

  Nathan argues the administration's de-escalation message is good politics but bad policy. Attacks in the Persian Gulf (on Qatar and Saudi Arabia, including a civilian airport in Riyadh) continued after the supposed ceasefire. If the US does not use its strength to deter these attacks and does not support the Saudis against the Houthis, the risk becomes a problem. He concludes there has to be a premium built into crude oil.

  “then you have to think there has to be a premium built into crude oil here.”at 7:26

• Rebecca Patterson · Council on Foreign Relations

  Chinese demand has capped oil prices, but low US strategic reserves limit how long that can last if war drags on.

  Patterson says the main reason oil is not much higher is that China has acted as consumer of last resort, managing demand and supply over the summer. She questions whether China will keep doing this if the war runs a few more months. US strategic reserves are down to about 283,000 barrels, so the US has little left to spare. France's release of 10 million barrels of diesel is a one-time move. Diversification helps but only goes so far if the disruption continues.

  “I wonder, will they continue to do this if the war goes on a few more months? We know that in The US, we don't have strategic reserves to spare.”at 8:29

• Brian Sullivan · CNBC

  Paper WTI at about $91 understates physical crude, which trades near $135–$140 because of war-driven freight and insurance costs.

  Sullivan says the prices on screen are paper futures contracts, not the cost of a physical barrel. He cites two ships chartered from Houston, one to Korea and one to China, for $77 million, against a normal price of $7–10 million. Insurance and charter rates are up, and crews must be paid more because their lives are at risk. He concludes a physical barrel is about $135 to $140, not the $91 shown on screen.

  “The price of an actual barrel of crude oil is about a 135 to a $140. It's not the 91 that we show on the screen.”at 9:26

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead Strategies

  Crude is neutral near $87–$91 support, but longer-term gauges point to an upside breakout toward $105.

  Stockton has a neutral near-term bias for crude, partly because of crude's own chart. WTI futures are around $91, with support near $87. On a longer view, WTI is in a triangle formation, which is neutral until it breaks out or down. Her longer-term gauges suggest the breakout will come to the upside, so she is watching $87 on the downside and about $105 on the upside. The energy sector has been a source of relative performance this year.

  “Our longer term gauges suggest that the breakout will come to the upside, not the downside.”at 10:24

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Rebecca Patterson · Council on Foreign Relations

  AI capex buildout is driving US growth and, with supply shocks, lifting inflation.

  Patterson cites Brookings estimates that AI infrastructure spending could reach about $10.3 trillion over the next few years, roughly double the railroad buildout as a share of GDP. She says this capex is what is producing strong growth, and that it is supporting both growth and inflation. Together with supply shocks, this demand push is why stocks are holding up despite higher yields.

  “And the thing that's hard now is that we have strong growth largely thanks to AI CapEx build out.”at 10:56

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal Media

  Debt-funded AI chip buying is financialized; if demand falls short, the debt could come down hard.

  Nathan lists the recent financing: SpaceX raising $40 billion to buy chips, Oracle talking to Apollo and Goldman about debt to buy chips, hundreds of billions of dollars of debt raised this year, and large off-balance-sheet obligations. He says companies would rather overbuild than underbuild. If AI revenue and unit economics (OpenAI, Anthropic) disappoint, the chips may lack demand and the debt-funded build-out could unwind. He is hedged, saying it 'might not end so well' and that many people don't expect a crash.

  “And if you just got done raising all this debt and it's meant to buy chips that you might not have the demand for, then we have a financialized”at 15:48

• Ethan Klein · White House Office of Science and Technology Policy

  Permitting reform and the executive order are speeding the US data center build-out; easy permitting attracts builders.

  He argues that communities are saying yes to data centers and that there has been an incredible build-out across the country. He credits the president's executive order on accelerating permitting and the permitting reform. His logic is that if it is easy to build in the US, builders will build here.

  “We've seen an incredible build out of data center infrastructure across the country, and that was a lot of it was dealt with in the president's executive order from last year to accelerate permitting.”at 38:10

US Treasuries & yields

• Rebecca Patterson · Council on Foreign Relations

  US yields will keep rising in coming months, driven by supply shocks, AI-driven growth and heavy deficit issuance.

  Patterson says oil is part of the yield story but not all of it. Yields are rising partly because AI-driven growth is strong, and partly because supply shocks are lifting inflation and inflation expectations. She adds about $2 trillion of new budget deficit supply this year. She also says AI corporate debt offering around 100 basis points of extra yield crowds out Treasuries. Those forces together mean yields are heading higher over the coming months, even at current levels. A good 30-year auction and buybacks today made the day calmer but do not change the trend.

  “I do think yields, even at these levels, are going higher over the coming months.”at 12:11

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Bond yields will remain a problem; watch whether rate-sensitive earnings hold up and for credit-cycle risk.

  Seymour argues there is no visibility on when the global yield selloff ends. He names four drivers of yields: cyclicality, inflation, AI-related debt issuance, and central bank credibility on inflation. He says the banks reporting next will show whether rate-sensitive earnings hold up, and that this move in rates should raise concern about a credit cycle. He does not think investors should base decisions on Treasury or French OAT yields.

  “So I think yields are gonna continue to be an issue.”at 13:14

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead Strategies

  Speed of the recent Treasury yield rise, not its level, has damaged banks; yields should consolidate.

  She says the sector has been hurt more by the acceleration and speed of the rise in yields than by the level, alongside weak breadth. She thinks yields will consolidate while bank earnings are hitting the tape, which could give banks a more conducive backdrop for a relief rally. Her key watch item is whether longer-term yields consolidate for a few days or weeks.

  “we think it's more about the acceleration, the speed with which yields have risen that's been damaging to the sector more recently”at 42:09

Telecom & connectivity

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal Media

  Starlink's satellite internet works fast, so it will disrupt many industries, including telecom carriers.

  Nathan cites airlines putting Starlink on planes, and the fact that passengers are now making Zoom calls from the air, as evidence that Starlink works and works fast. He expects it to disrupt many industries, and he thinks SpaceX might buy one of the carriers because it can buy customers. He says this is why the market got nervous about carriers today.

  “a bunch of airlines are putting Starlink on their planes. It finally works, right? And it works fast.”at 30:52

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Telco stocks are cheap for a reason, and they may not need Starlink's infrastructure.

  Seymour says a Starlink mobile acquisition would be accretive from a valuation perspective. However, telco stocks are cheap and he thinks they are cheap for a reason. He is not sure carriers need the infrastructure Starlink would provide, which weakens the case for the deal.

  “but the telco stocks are cheap and they're cheap for a reason. And I'm not sure I'm not sure they need this infrastructure.”at 32:10

Nuclear energy

• Ethan Klein · White House Office of Science and Technology Policy

  An American nuclear renaissance is under way after last year's executive orders.

  He says the executive orders on nuclear signed last year have ushered in an American nuclear renaissance. He points to upgrades that squeeze more megawatts onto the grid in the near term and the testing of advanced reactors at the Department of Energy. He frames this as government-backed nuclear development.

  “what we've seen since the executive orders on nuclear sector that the president signed last year has been the ushering in of an American nuclear renaissance.”at 35:55

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Nuclear is a prevalent, abundant story that pairs well with the data center build-out.

  He is investing in both data centers and nuclear, and likes the marriage of the two because the country needs to build out infrastructure. He calls the nuclear story very prevalent and abundant, and says the build-out is strongest where there is a green light, like Texas, with nuclear and natural gas used depending on cost.

  “I also am investing around nuclear, and I like the marriage of both, not, you know, one for the other, but because there's an argument that we need to build out infrastructure in our country”at 38:53

Earnings & corporate profits

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal Media

  S&P 500 earnings growth, driven by Micron and Nvidia, may be near peak; forward returns could disappoint.

  Nathan says S&P 500 earnings growth is being driven by Micron and Nvidia, and that these growth rates may already be at their peak. If demand has been pulled forward, forward returns from here could be weak. He links this to the rise in yields and the question of whether 10-year yields compete with stocks for capital. He hedges this with 'might be', so it is a concern rather than a call.

  “they might be, like, as far as peak growth rates right here.”at 15:03

Europe's economy

• Rebecca Patterson · Council on Foreign Relations

  France is in a fiscal jam: its yields exceed Italy's, it cannot print its own currency, and its bond market is small.

  Patterson says France's 10-year bonds now yield more than Italy's. She worries that if she is worried about France, she has to worry about Italy and Greece too. France cannot print its own currency or inflate its way out of debt, and its bond market is not that big compared with the UK's. She says the country is in a jam. She also notes that corporate AI debt in Europe competes with government debt for investor money.

  “And the euros makes me nervous because if I'm worried about France I'm starting to worry about Italy and Greece.”at 17:17

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Brian Sullivan · CNBC

  Everyone is recommending the same 15 stocks, so a currency hit could cause a crowded-trade unwind.

  Sullivan says everyone is recommending the same 15 stocks. If currencies weaken and those stocks start to go down, the crowded positioning could unwind and cause a major sell-off. He calls it a 'multi trillion dollar if' and compares it to the last peg in a Jenga game. The argument is a conditional warning rather than a forecast.

  “Everybody's recommending the same 15 stocks. So if those stocks start to go down because the deck gets hit because the currencies get hit”at 18:11

Banks

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead Strategies

  Bank index is oversold near support; pre-earnings pullback should allow better earnings reactions.

  Bank index is in a significant, widespread correction but is now coming down to support while still in long-term uptrends. She says a pullback ahead of earnings typically allows better earnings reactions, which is what matters most, and that the bank index's underperformance versus the S&P 500 has support too, so it looks overdone. Banks are negatively correlated with Treasury yields, and she expects yields to consolidate as earnings arrive, which could create a relief rally. Her caveat is that the setup needs banks to react positively to hold support.

  “Looking at the bank index, a significant correction has unfolded that's widespread in the space, but it's now coming in towards support.”at 40:54

Credit markets

• Katie Stockton · Fairlead Strategies

  A credit-spread breakout would be the bigger bear signal for banks, though US spreads have not broken out.

  Spreads have broken out in some regions but not in the US in her view. If US spreads break out, she considers that a bigger bear signal for banks than the yield move. It is a conditional warning, not a current call.

  “if we do see a breakout in spreads, which we have in some regions, we don't have it here in The US in my opinion. So if we see that, that to me is the bigger bear signal.”at 43:05

Emerging markets

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  EM keeps slowly outperforming, including during the recent rise in rates.

  He says EM continues to slowly outperform and has outperformed during this period of rising rates. He adds that the risk is a fast move in rates, which he says would be scary for emerging markets. Absent that, he likes the picture.

  “I actually just think that EM continues to slowly outperform for the most part has actually outperformed in this period of rising rates.”at 45:20