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Brian Sullivan: latest market views
CNBC
Summary
Brian Sullivan is a CNBC anchor who co-hosts 'Power Lunch' and hosts 'Last Call', known for his energy and commodities coverage.
Chorus has 6 views from Brian Sullivan across 2 episodes on Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) and CNBC Fast Money since October 8, 2026.
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The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Trump's energy ceasefire has produced no deal; Russia's strike on Ukraine's gas facility is pressure to negotiate.
Sullivan says the claimed energy ceasefire has not produced an agreement, because Putin and Zelenskyy have not made any deals. As evidence he cites a Russian attack on a Ukrainian natural gas facility the day before. He reads the strike as a way of pressuring both sides toward the negotiating table. He also notes that Putin has referenced Ukrainian elections, and that the Black Sea is seeing shipping attacks, including a tanker burned after a blast off Sochi.
“Clearly, Putin and Zelenskyy haven't made any deals. That that's obvious. Putin attacked a natural gas facility yesterday in Ukraine... I think this is kind of trying to force them to some kind of table.”at 1:26
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Rising Oil Tensions, AI Agent Oversharing 10/12/26 ·
Physical crude costs about $125 a barrel once soaring shipping rates are added to the quoted futures price.
Sullivan says the quoted futures price (about $90) understates what oil actually costs to move. A VLCC charter from Houston to China has reportedly risen to about $76 million, from about $7 million eight months earlier. Spread over a 2-million-barrel cargo, that adds about $38 a barrel. He concludes that the real cost of a barrel is about $125 to $128. He is careful to say the futures price is still the right screen to show, but argues that the physical market is pricing much higher because of war-driven shipping risk and a pre-war charter rate of roughly $7 to $10 million for comparable voyages.
“I would say the actual price of a barrel of crude oil right now is probably about a $125 a barrel.”at 21:05
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Rising Oil Tensions, AI Agent Oversharing 10/12/26 ·
The Russian diesel sanctions easing is too small to move oil prices meaningfully.
The announced deal covers 300,000 metric tons of Russian diesel now, rising to 500,000 and then a million by year-end. Sullivan converts this to about seven shiploads. He compares it with global demand, which is about three hours' worth, and with US demand, about two days' worth. On that basis he concludes it should have almost no impact on price. He notes that the relaxation is still more than the day before and asks whether it will lead to further easing.
“It's about three hours of global demand... So it should have almost no impact on price.”at 22:51
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Rising Oil Tensions, AI Agent Oversharing 10/12/26 ·
Diesel and refined product prices will likely rise further because global refining capacity is tight.
Sullivan argues refined products are tighter than crude. The last new US refinery was completed in 1978, and two California refineries have gone offline in the past year. He adds that the Russia and Ukraine wars have knocked out or hit about 50% of Russian refining capacity, which has pushed global refining margins to record highs. Ship owners, especially Western ones, are avoiding Hormuz, the Black Sea and the Red Sea, and crews are being paid large bonuses to make the run. Together these point to tight diesel, jet fuel and heating oil supply. Sullivan concludes diesel prices will probably rise, possibly by a lot, even with the small sanctions relaxation.
“So diesel fuel prices are probably going to go higher. In some cases, they might go a lot higher.”at 26:59
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Rising Oil Tensions, AI Agent Oversharing 10/12/26 ·
Paper WTI at about $91 understates physical crude, which trades near $135–$140 because of war-driven freight and insurance costs.
Sullivan says the prices on screen are paper futures contracts, not the cost of a physical barrel. He cites two ships chartered from Houston, one to Korea and one to China, for $77 million, against a normal price of $7–10 million. Insurance and charter rates are up, and crews must be paid more because their lives are at risk. He concludes a physical barrel is about $135 to $140, not the $91 shown on screen.
“The price of an actual barrel of crude oil is about a 135 to a $140. It's not the 91 that we show on the screen.”at 9:26
CNBC Fast Money: Stocks Fall As Oil Spikes… And White House CTO On Trump Science Summit 10/8/26 ·
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Everyone is recommending the same 15 stocks, so a currency hit could cause a crowded-trade unwind.
Sullivan says everyone is recommending the same 15 stocks. If currencies weaken and those stocks start to go down, the crowded positioning could unwind and cause a major sell-off. He calls it a 'multi trillion dollar if' and compares it to the last peg in a Jenga game. The argument is a conditional warning rather than a forecast.
“Everybody's recommending the same 15 stocks. So if those stocks start to go down because the deck gets hit because the currencies get hit”at 18:11
CNBC Fast Money: Stocks Fall As Oil Spikes… And White House CTO On Trump Science Summit 10/8/26 ·
Shows
- Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) · 1 episode
- CNBC Fast Money · 1 episode
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