Rising Oil Tensions, AI Agent Oversharing 10/12/26

Brian Sullivan · CNBC

Physical crude costs about $125 a barrel once soaring shipping rates are added to the quoted futures price.

Sullivan says the quoted futures price (about $90) understates what oil actually costs to move. A VLCC charter from Houston to China has reportedly risen to about $76 million, from about $7 million eight months earlier. Spread over a 2-million-barrel cargo, that adds about $38 a barrel. He concludes that the real cost of a barrel is about $125 to $128. He is careful to say the futures price is still the right screen to show, but argues that the physical market is pricing much higher because of war-driven shipping risk and a pre-war charter rate of roughly $7 to $10 million for comparable voyages.

“I would say the actual price of a barrel of crude oil right now is probably about a $125 a barrel.”at 21:05

Brian Sullivan · CNBC

The Russian diesel sanctions easing is too small to move oil prices meaningfully.

The announced deal covers 300,000 metric tons of Russian diesel now, rising to 500,000 and then a million by year-end. Sullivan converts this to about seven shiploads. He compares it with global demand, which is about three hours' worth, and with US demand, about two days' worth. On that basis he concludes it should have almost no impact on price. He notes that the relaxation is still more than the day before and asks whether it will lead to further easing.

“It's about three hours of global demand... So it should have almost no impact on price.”at 22:51

Brian Sullivan · CNBC

Diesel and refined product prices will likely rise further because global refining capacity is tight.

Sullivan argues refined products are tighter than crude. The last new US refinery was completed in 1978, and two California refineries have gone offline in the past year. He adds that the Russia and Ukraine wars have knocked out or hit about 50% of Russian refining capacity, which has pushed global refining margins to record highs. Ship owners, especially Western ones, are avoiding Hormuz, the Black Sea and the Red Sea, and crews are being paid large bonuses to make the run. Together these point to tight diesel, jet fuel and heating oil supply. Sullivan concludes diesel prices will probably rise, possibly by a lot, even with the small sanctions relaxation.

“So diesel fuel prices are probably going to go higher. In some cases, they might go a lot higher.”at 26:59

Shane Mac · XMTP Labs

AI agents need tighter permissions, since connected agents can share private data across channels.

Mac's experiment shows the mechanism behind the risk. He had a consumer agent (GrokBot) connected to his personal bank accounts with read-only access, and a second agent connected to his Slack. Once the two agents could talk, the banking agent shared his personal balances and a list of approvable actions, and posted them to a company Slack channel. The agent misread a personal group chat named 'exec team' as the company exec channel. He concludes that agents oversharing at the edge of these systems shows the need for better permissions and safer boundaries between them.

“It's always when you're kind of at the edge of these things where they're oversharing. We need better permissions. We need to be safer.”at 30:47

Shane Mac · XMTP Labs

Multi-agent systems that share connections need a new permissions layer, since agents can communicate and access the same data.

Shane Mac says the breakdown in his incident came from multiple agents. He ran a personal agent and a work agent, and because the agents could talk to each other and shared the same connections, the personal bank data reached the work channel. He calls this a whole new permissions layer that still has to be worked out. He also says the agent wrote its own monthly summary instruction from ambiguous directions, so the failure was an access and instruction-scoping problem, not just the model acting alone. He advises compartmentalizing agents, putting a fence around them, and separating personal from work connections, and says the industry is only beginning to talk about this.

“if those two agents can now communicate and have access to the same connections because they can talk, that is the breakdown. That is where this breaks down, and that is where there's a whole new permissions layer that has to be figured out here.”at 38:42

Brian Sullivan · CNBC

Trump's energy ceasefire has produced no deal; Russia's strike on Ukraine's gas facility is pressure to negotiate.

Sullivan says the claimed energy ceasefire has not produced an agreement, because Putin and Zelenskyy have not made any deals. As evidence he cites a Russian attack on a Ukrainian natural gas facility the day before. He reads the strike as a way of pressuring both sides toward the negotiating table. He also notes that Putin has referenced Ukrainian elections, and that the Black Sea is seeing shipping attacks, including a tanker burned after a blast off Sochi.

“Clearly, Putin and Zelenskyy haven't made any deals. That that's obvious. Putin attacked a natural gas facility yesterday in Ukraine... I think this is kind of trying to force them to some kind of table.”at 1:26

Dan Murphy · CNBC

Saudi investability is being challenged; the FII conference will likely go ahead with scaled-back attendance.

Murphy argues that the Houthi strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, the deadliest attack on the kingdom in a decade and one that killed an American, are challenging Saudi Arabia's investability. The Houthis have told airlines and travelers to avoid Saudi airports and airspace, which threatens civilian and commercial air travel. Some executives have pulled out, including BP's CEO. Officials say the FII conference will go ahead at the end of the month, but Murphy expects a scaled-back attendance because of security risks.

“the investability of Saudi Arabia really being challenged right now... it's likely to go ahead, but we'll see maybe a scaled back attendance this year given the security risks in the region.”at 6:07

Dan Murphy · CNBC

US-Saudi ties may take a hit if Washington doesn't act, though the partnership's long-run durability looks intact.

Murphy describes Saudi Arabia as one of America's strongest regional partners, alongside the UAE and a huge investment partner, and notes it is the largest buyer of US defense systems and munitions. He argues the relationship could be damaged if the US fails to respond to the attacks. He is hedged on the outcome. He says the Saudis will ask for more US support, and that the attacks are testing both President Trump and Saudi leadership. He still expects the long-term relationship to hold.

“whether or not we will see that relationship maybe taking a hit if The US doesn't act, I think is a question, but the long term durability of this relationship staying intact”at 8:36

Shane Mac · XMTP Labs

Consumers will push for AI agents that save money and buy for them, but trust remains unresolved and must be cautious.

Shane Mac argues consumer agents are powerful and becoming a money tool. He wants to test them on banking because agents can find better deals, get better insurance and negotiate on a consumer's behalf, and he expects consumers to want tools that save money and make purchases. He is cautious, though. He says users must be careful about what data they connect, that the question of who can be trusted has no answer yet, and that people should be more skeptical than trying everything. His stance is cautiously optimistic about the category.

“the crazy thing is that they're so powerful, and it's starting to be about the money. That's why I wanted to try the banking because these things can find me a better deal, get me better insurance, be able to negotiate on my behalf.”at 40:38