A Blue Tsunami: Maryland Gov. Wes Moore 11/4/26

Frank Luntz

The midterm vote was a rejection of Republicans, not an embrace of the Democratic Party.

Luntz's exit-poll focus groups of Trump 2024 voters who switched to Democrats found they were overwhelmingly voting against Republicans rather than for the left. He ties this to disappointment over the Iran war, higher prices and affordability, and says the voters admitted they had made a mistake in 2024 and had been let down on promises.

“And almost unanimously, it was voting against the Republicans. The disappointment over the war, the disappointment over higher prices, they've... All affordability issue.”at 24:48

Frank Luntz

Money mattered less in this election than ever before; voters decided based on personal economic hardship.

Luntz argues that heavy spending, mostly on the Republican side, did not sway voters because people struggling to buy food for their families did not care about ads or online content. He calls this a problem, and warns that those who can afford it should be careful what they spend and say.

“Money was less important in this election than ever before, and you and I agree on this. It's a problem.”at 31:37

Frank Luntz

Governors with crisis-management experience, like Wes Moore, are well positioned for the 2028 race.

Luntz says voters outside Washington who have had to run things, especially governors who have handled a crisis, will benefit in the 2028 Democratic race. He names Wes Moore as a fit example and argues the result makes it harder for Republicans such as JD Vance and Marco Rubio.

“The people who aren't in Washington DC, the people who've had to run things in their life, particularly as a governor, particularly someone who had to deal with a crisis, those are the people who will benefit.”at 32:20

Megan Cassella · CNBC

Tariff politics are not partisan; bipartisan protectionism means many tariffs will likely stay in place.

Cassella responds to Kernen's point that Democrats do not oppose all tariffs by saying tariffs are not a monolith. She argues there is bipartisan protectionism, so a lot of the current tariff regime is likely to be kept in place regardless of the election outcome.

“It's not a monolith. There's bipartisan protectionism that we'll wanna keep a lot of that in place.”at 16:01

Wes Moore · State of Maryland

Tariffs have become a burden on Americans rather than the boon the president promised.

Moore argues the president claimed tariffs would be a boon, but in practice they have ended up as a bill paid by Americans, who are already facing higher costs. He adds that judges have told the president he lacks unilateral authority to impose them, so the policy is legally contested as well as costly.

“the president said tariffs were going to be a boon. What tariffs have ended up becoming is a bill”at 40:10

Robert Frank · CNBC

Money did not decide the California billionaire tax vote; wealthy residents were already leaving the state.

Frank argues that people overstate the effect of money on elections and that the tax would likely have failed without the roughly $300 million spent against it. He points to about 20% of California billionaire wealth already leaving the state, including Sergey Brin and Larry Page, which he says was a reason the billionaires had less need to spend, and that a sense of self-interest or belief the tax is confiscatory likely drove the opposition.

“So I don't know that you needed the billionaires to spend $300,000,000 to defeat it, but I agree with you guys. I don't think money was a deciding factor in this election.”at 20:28

Frank Luntz

California's failed billionaire tax shows voters don't want successful people punished or wealth taxed.

Luntz reads the California vote against the billionaire tax as a signal that the public does not want to punish successful people. He says voters want people to keep what they earn and pass it on to their children, and that a successful business that contributes to the economy and its community should be left alone.

“Screams to me that there's a point when the public says, I'm not gonna punish successful people. That I want people to be able to keep something of what they do, and I want them to be able to pass along to their kids.”at 30:43

Robert Frank · CNBC

Expect Democrats to push a corporate tax rate increase, since corporate tax revenue is at multi-decade lows.

Frank says the k-shaped economy, with asset owners doing much better than labor, will drive discussion of capital gains taxes and a higher corporate tax rate. His evidence is that corporate profits are at record levels, yet as a share of GDP, corporate profits and tax revenue, corporate tax revenue is at its lowest in decades.

“I think you're gonna see discussion on the corporate tax rate increase because even though we have record corporate earnings, as a share of both GDP, corporate profits, and tax revenue, corporate tax revenue is at the lowest it's been in decades.”at 21:09

Robert Frank · CNBC

Trump may be more open to raising taxes on the wealthy than expected, based on his past comments.

Frank points to Trump's 2016 Today show remarks in which he mused about raising taxes on the wealthy and never explicitly ruled it out. Frank argues that Trump is less morally opposed to the idea than expected, so there may be room for a deal with a Democratic Congress.

“I don't think he's as morally opposed to the idea of raising taxes on the wealthy as people expect. There might be some give there.”at 21:49

Frank Luntz

Voters did not reject data centers; the issue ranked near the bottom of his 20-plus item poll list.

Luntz polled voters on a list of about 20-plus issues and data centers ranked very low (around 19th). He argues the public did not say no to data centers and that the Texas result is not a referendum on them. Voters would back data centers if they lower costs, such as cheaper gas, housing, health care, food and fuel, which undercuts the case for a new Democratic governor's planned moratorium.

“The public did not say no to data centers. We gave them a list of 20 items, 22, ... If it contributes to cheaper gas, the public says yes.”at 30:08

Wes Moore · State of Maryland

Coverage cuts pushing people off health care are a leading driver of rising costs and anxiety.

Moore links congressional votes that cut people off health care to higher household costs. He calls this one of the leading reasons for increased cost and for the anxiety Americans feel, so he sees coverage cuts as a central economic pressure rather than a side issue.

“people getting kicked off of health care, which is not just one of the leading cost, one of the leading reasons for increased cost”at 40:34

Wes Moore · State of Maryland

Permitting reform is a bipartisan priority that would boost growth in both red and blue states.

As chair of the National Governors Association, Moore says governors of both parties have produced joint recommendations. He argues permitting has been one of the greater challenges for economic growth and development in both Democratic and Republican states, which makes it one of the few areas where bipartisan deals look achievable.

“permanent reform has been one of the greater challenges we've had for economic growth and economic development in both Democratic and Republican states”at 43:42