Election Day with Bill Ackman & Rahm Emanuel 11/3/26

Space Exploration Technologies

Across the shows: 37 speakers in other episodes, 34 bullish and 17 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementUncertain

  SpaceX has meaningful cash flows but is harder to predict than Pershing's annuity-like holdings.

  Ackman describes SpaceX as a very large company with meaningful sources of cash flow. He says those cash flows are harder to predict. He contrasts Pershing Square's high-certainty, predictable, growing annuity-like cash flows and says he would not yet call SpaceX that. The comparison is about how predictable the business is, not a buy or sell call.

  “SpaceX is sort of a very large... In some sense, you know, it's got meaningful sources of cash flows, but you... It's a little more difficult to predict. Pershing Square is about high certainty, predictable, growing annuity like cash flows, and I wouldn't call SpaceX that yet.”at 28:11

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementNeutral

  SpaceX is too hard to predict for Pershing Square's core fund; Ackman holds it personally.

  Ackman owns SpaceX personally through his investment in xAI and a Ron Baron vehicle. He says Pershing Square's core holdings generate large, predictable cash flows, while SpaceX's cash flows are harder to predict and not yet the annuity-like profile he requires. He says venture bets are handled differently from the core fund.

  “Because if you look at the kind of businesses we own, they're generating huge amounts of cash flow today... Where SpaceX is sort of a very large... It's a little more difficult to predict.”at 43:01

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 62 speakers in other episodes, 53 bullish and 34 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBullish

  Meta should do very well if its Muse agent becomes pervasive, despite the ad-model risk.

  Andrew Ross Sorkin argues agents could break the search and sponsored-ad model that funds Meta and others. Ackman expects deals between Muse and players like Amazon and Uber, and says the big players will have to interact in some form. He concludes Pershing will do very well with Meta if Muse becomes pervasive around the world. The case is conditional on adoption and is thinly argued. Meta is among Pershing's largest holdings.

  “We'll we'll do very well with Meta if Muse becomes pervasive around the world.”at 34:56

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBullish

  Market overreacted to Meta's big capex announcement, letting Pershing buy at a huge discount.

  When Meta announced a large capital expenditure plan, the stock fell sharply. Pershing bought it at what Ackman calls a huge discount, which implies he sees the market as overreacting to the spending.

  “When Meta announced big CapEx spend, we were able to buy [Meta] at a, you know, huge discount.”at 49:55

Visa

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBullish

  Visa is a royalty on global spending, bought in the low-20s P/E after trading in the 30s.

  Pershing Square bought Visa at low-20s times earnings after it traded well into the 30s, a multiple the firm had always found too expensive. Visa is a royalty on consumer spending and a global security network. Ackman dismisses the credit-card risk behind the selloff, saying Visa takes only a modest scrape of global transactions. He argues that agents increasing transaction volume would be a big positive for Visa.

  “I put Visa, MasterCard on those lists. It's sort of a royalty on people spending money. It's one of the greatest businesses in the world. Always too expensive for us. These were well into the thirties times earnings. We were able to pick them up in the low twenties.”at 31:08

Mastercard

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBullish

  Mastercard is a royalty on global spending, bought in the low-20s P/E after trading in the 30s.

  Pershing Square bought Mastercard at low-20s times earnings after it traded well into the 30s, a level the firm had always considered too expensive. Mastercard is a royalty on people's spending and a global security network. Ackman argues the selloff on credit-card fears misreads the business, since Mastercard earns only a modest fee on global transactions. Agents that raise transaction volume are a big positive for it.

  “I put Visa, MasterCard on those lists. It's sort of a royalty on people spending money. It's one of the greatest businesses in the world. Always too expensive for us. These were well into the thirties times earnings. We were able to pick them up in the low twenties.”at 31:08

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 34 speakers in other episodes, 42 bullish and 8 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBullish

  Amazon is more likely to win agentic commerce on delivery speed, low cost and logistics.

  Ackman says only Walmart has anything close to Amazon's logistics and infrastructure. As AI agents drive more transaction volume, Amazon should win share because it can deliver on time at the lowest cost and price. He notes Amazon already has its own voice-driven agentic commerce. He sees Amazon as having fundamental competitive advantages, and Pershing Square holds it as one of its largest positions.

  “I think, you know, Amazon's more likely to win, you know, the ability to deliver on time, have the lowest cost, you know, lowest price.”at 35:10

Ramp Financial

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBullish

  Ramp is an impressive company whose valuation is justified by its growth and ambition.

  Ackman met the Ramp team and calls the company unbelievably impressive. He says Ramp is building a financial operating system for every company, has a super impressive team, and is growing at a massive rate. He believes that justifies its valuation, though he notes that if he were at American Express he would be concerned about the competitive threat.

  “Unbelievably impressive company... they're building basically a financial operating system for every company in the world. Super impressive team growing at this massive rate... I think they justify the valuations that they're...”at 36:30

Federal National Mortgage Association

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 0 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBullish

  Resolving Fannie Mae's conservatorship would bring a big windfall, help affordability and give MBS buyers certainty.

  Ackman argues Fannie and Freddie are enormously profitable, and that the most important fix is exiting conservatorship, which can be done by executive order. Uncertainty about political control of the entities is weighing on MBS buyers, and certainty from a public listing would help mortgage spreads and affordability. He puts the windfall at about $500 billion for the American people and expects resolution after the midterms, while noting the president's ability to act is restricted before then.

  “That only gets resolved in a world in which they exit conservatorship. They become publicly traded companies. They're owned by institutional and retail investors.”at 45:57

Federal Home Loan Mortgage

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 0 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBullish

  Resolving Freddie Mac's conservatorship would unlock a huge windfall and give MBS buyers certainty.

  Ackman describes Freddie Mac as part of the enormously profitable Fannie and Freddie pair. He argues that exiting conservatorship, which the administration could do by executive order, would remove political risk for MBS buyers and tighten mortgage spreads. He expects this to happen after the midterms, given the limits on presidential action before then.

  “That only gets resolved in a world in which they exit conservatorship. They become publicly traded companies. They're owned by institutional and retail investors.”at 45:57

Microsoft

Across the shows: 37 speakers in other episodes, 37 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBullish

  Pershing bought Microsoft when fears about capex and a SaaS apocalypse drove the stock down.

  Investors worried that Microsoft's capital spending and the broader SaaS apocalypse thesis were hurting the business. Pershing bought the stock during that sell-off, which Ackman describes as a buying opportunity.

  “when people are worried about Microsoft CapEx spending in the SaaS apocalypse, we bought Microsoft.”at 49:55

Anthropic

Across the shows: 83 speakers in other episodes, 100 bullish and 65 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBullish

  Anthropic will have a successful IPO, though it may price less aggressively.

  Ackman's team read the Anthropic prospectus and came away impressed that the business is much better financially than they expected from the outside. He expects a successful IPO but thinks it will be priced less aggressively given the market's mood. Pershing Square is not buying at the open, since the stock is too uncertain for its approach.

  “My guys have read the Anthropic... And I say they came away impressed that the business from a financial point of view is much... much better business than we would suspected... So I think Anthropic will be a successful IPO.”at 50:39

Alphabet

Across the shows: 52 speakers in other episodes, 40 bullish and 32 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBearish

  AI answers are eroding Google's search clicks; Pershing sold because the return looked unattractive.

  Pershing sold Google because at its price the forward return looked unattractive. Ackman sees a risk that AI answers now give users a quick answer, so they no longer scroll and click through links. Google's once-dominant search bar is therefore a threat it needs to work through.

  “I think the risk is, you know, the Google search bar used to be unbelievably dominant, and people still go today, but they get a quick answer from an AI answer, and they don't scroll down and click on a bunch of links.”at 51:12

Netflix

Across the shows: 21 speakers in other episodes, 11 bullish and 18 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBullish

  Netflix is an incredibly cheap stock; the market is wrong about falling engagement.

  Ackman says Netflix is one of Pershing's top performers and an incredibly cheap stock. He notes the market is focused on engagement, with hours spent on the platform having come down. He attributes that to a change in the mix of content, which he implies is a shift in what the company is delivering rather than a broader problem.

  “Netflix, we think, is an incredibly cheap stock. And one of their top performers.”at 51:24

US stock market outlook

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital Management

  Index funds and short-term traders chase chips, leaving other good businesses underpriced.

  Ackman says index funds are absorbing float and short-term investors like Millennium and Citadel chase whatever will rise most over the next few months. The market focus this year has been chips and semiconductors, a picks-and-shovels theme. Everything else has been ignored. That neglect let Pershing buy businesses it had long wanted but found too expensive.

  “Index funds kind of gobbling up float. Then you have the millenniums and citadels and increasingly shorter term investors looking for what stock's going to go up the most of the next few months. The focus this year has been chips and semiconductors... Everything else is sort of ignored.”at 30:33

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital Management

  No 1920s-style bubble in stocks; earnings are rising and the multiple is reasonably low.

  Ackman rejects comparisons with the roaring twenties. He says 2026 earnings expectations have risen meaningfully, while the stock market multiple is reasonably low relative to the growth in the market. He sees no bubble-like activity in public markets. He is less sure about private markets, where he sees more bubble-like behavior, but he gave no evidence for that view.

  “...earnings expectations have gone up meaningfully and the multiple is actually reasonably low relative to the growth inherent in the market. So I'm not seeing that sort of bubble like activity in markets.”at 35:51

Tariffs & trade policy

• Rahm Emanuel

  Repeal many tariffs; they hurt the economy and the manufacturing base.

  Emanuel argues for a massive repeal of many tariffs that have affected the economy. About 40% of products go into US manufacturing, so tariffs hurt the manufacturing base. He says that repealing them is part of how Democrats would split Trump from congressional Republicans after a win.

  “...a massive repeal of a number of them that have affected the economy. 40% of the... Of products go into our manufacturing. Get rid of those. You're hurting the manufacturing base.”at 14:57

US jobs & labor market

• Rahm Emanuel

  Raise the federal minimum wage to $20 by 2030; the $7.25 floor has not moved in 20 years.

  Emanuel says the federal minimum wage has not moved in twenty years while utility rates and health care costs are up 13%, gas prices are up 50% and groceries are up. He would raise it to $20 by 2030, phased in over time, and says a higher floor affects other incomes. He calls it a floor, not a price control, and says the American people need a raise while CEO pay keeps rising.

  “Raise the minimum wage. Do it over a period of time. I'm for 20 by 2030, and it affects other incomes. The American people need a raise.”at 16:00

US tax & spending policy

• Rahm Emanuel

  Overhaul the tax code: close 271 loopholes and raise capital gains and corporate minimum rates.

  Emanuel says the tax code needs a fundamental rewrite because it has 271 loopholes, the most ever. He would restrict the step-up basis that lets people borrow against equity and never pay tax. He would raise capital gains back toward the 28% of the Reagan and Clinton years from 20%, and set a 25% minimum corporate rate. He says the loopholes cost $2.3 trillion a year, more than Medicare and Medicaid combined.

  “I think the whole tax code... needs a fundamental rewriting. You have 271 loopholes, the most ever.”at 17:06

Sports, betting & prediction markets

• Rahm Emanuel

  Ban federal employees from prediction markets because officials with information shouldn't bet on it.

  Emanuel says some people at the highest and lowest levels of government have access to information and then bet on it. He cites the president's teleprompter operator betting on his words as an example. He would ban federal employees, especially in Congress and the executive branch, from participating in prediction markets, and would put that ban in the first-three-months ethics package. He says he is tired of people betting against America.

  “Now look. We have people at the highest levels and at the lowest levels, access to information, then betting on it. And I'm tired of people betting against America.”at 24:47

US deficit & government debt

• Rahm Emanuel

  Restore pay-as-you-go budget rules and cap new spending to restore fiscal discipline.

  Emanuel wants to restore pay-as-you-go, which he says delivered a balanced budget and four years of surpluses under Clinton. He would also cap new spending so people must make choices. As an example, he says $38 billion on ICE detention centers should end so the money could go to Pell grants or infrastructure. Together with tax reform, he says this would restore fiscal discipline.

  “one, return pay as you go, which existed under president Clinton, which is how over the period of time you got back to not only a balanced budget, but four years in a row, surpluses.”at 25:33

Healthcare system & insurers

• Rahm Emanuel

  Health care costs are unaffordable; expand coverage and control costs via a public option.

  Emanuel says health care costs are up 12% to 13% while incomes are stagnant, and that this is what drives people crazy. Forty million Americans put health care costs on credit cards, which is the leading cause of bankruptcy. He calls for fundamental reform on coverage and cost control. He would put everyone in the ACA exchanges into one public-option exchange, the same one the president and federal employees use.

  “Health care costs are up 12%. Yes, gas and groceries and the inability to afford a home, but forty million Americans put their health care costs on their credit card. It's the leading cause of bankruptcy.”at 27:18

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital Management

  Microsoft, Amazon and Meta capex is justified by demand; analysts underestimate growth.

  Ackman argues Microsoft, Amazon and Meta can afford their heavy spending without taking on financial risk. They are seeing enormous demand and high returns on capital, and cloud has been a high-growth business for Microsoft and Amazon. He says intelligence is the most valuable asset and the path to it runs through processing power. Corporate AI use is still tiny, so he expects usage to rise sharply. He says analysts model the capex but not the change in growth, which he calls just wrong.

  “Two, they're seeing enormous demand and high returns on the capital that they're investing. ... The analysts are factoring into the model the CapEx associated with the build out, but not any meaningful change in the growth. I think that's just wrong.”at 32:25

Venture capital & startups

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital Management

  Private venture markets show some bubble-like FOMO, but much of the valuation is justified.

  Ackman sees the bubble-like behaviour concentrated in private venture markets rather than public stocks, driven by FOMO. He says there is some froth, but a lot of it is justified, and he cites Ramp as an example of a company whose valuation holds up.

  “I think in private markets... bubble like activity, particularly in the kind of FOMO private venture space. There is some, but a lot of it is justified.”at 36:19

US elections & politics

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital Management

  Expects Democrats to win the House and hopes the Senate stays Republican; a divided Congress limits presidential action.

  Ackman says the likely outcome is a Democratic House, while he hopes the Senate stays Republican. He expects that anything requiring Congress will be very difficult for the president to get done over the next two years, which he sees as limiting the administration's economic policy.

  “I think the likelihood is the house goes, and I'm sort of hoping that the senate stays... things that require the congress are gonna be very difficult for the president to get done.”at 40:19

Oil & fuels

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital Management

  Higher oil and energy prices from the Iran conflict are temporary.

  Ackman acknowledges that the Iran war has pushed up oil and energy prices, and that the president knew this would hurt the midterms. He still characterises the price spike as a temporary phenomenon, not a lasting shift.

  “no one likes higher oil prices. No one likes higher energy prices, but it's a temporary phenomenon.”at 41:13

Middle East & Iran

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital Management

  The Iran conflict is nearing its end, ending either by negotiation or by military pressure.

  Ackman argues the president was right to act because Iran getting nuclear weapons was an existential threat. He says the conflict is getting closer to the end and will resolve either through negotiation or by pummelling Iran enough that it is no longer a threat.

  “I think we're getting closer to the end. It ends by negotiation or we pummel them sufficiently so they're not a threat.”at 41:46