AI Stocks Search for Solid Ground 11/11/26

Bitcoin

Across the shows: 25 speakers in other episodes, 21 bullish and 7 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Adam Back · BlockstreamBullish

  Institutional Bitcoin adoption via managed money and model portfolios is still to come, likely 95%+ ahead.

  Back says early optimism about institutional adoption was premature, and recent ETF inflows and outflows are partly technical because of basis trading. For the longer term, he expects managed money, mutual funds and BlackRock and other firms' model portfolios to bring in large pools of capital, because the average person does not self-direct investments. He estimates 95% or more of that institutional demand is still to come in the following years.

  “But for the longer term, I think the institutional adoption is yet to come, which is the managed money, mutual funds, the model portfolios of BlackRock and others have put out. I think those are still to come and those are large pots of money... I'd say we're still 95% or more of that to come in the following years.”at 39:10

• Adam Back · BlockstreamBullish

  Bitcoin is improved gold: mathematically assured scarcity from proof of work, plus easier transfer and trading.

  Back calls Bitcoin improved gold because its scarcity is mathematically assured by proof of work, which gives certainty in an uncertain world. He argues it has advantages over physical gold: it is cheaper to send, assay and trade, and the market is highly liquid.

  “I mean, I think ultimately it's improved gold. Think it's the simplest way to think about it. You have a kind of mathematically assured scarcity coming from the physical factors, right, the proof of work.”at 40:05

• Adam Back · BlockstreamBullish

  Bitcoin is in early innings of a halving-driven bull cycle; he bets it tops $1 million by late 2028.

  Back says the four-year halving cycle makes the current price a recovery from a market bottom, not a cycle top, unlike the 69,000 peak of the prior cycle. He points to the 200-week moving average, a floor Bitcoin rarely drops below in drawdowns and which is rising, around 67,000 now, and expects growth to continue into next year. He has a personal proposition bet that Bitcoin will exceed $1 million before the end of the cycle in mid-2028.

  “...that was a cycle top, whereas we're just coming out of a market bottom... So I think we're in the early innings of a bull market cycle. Personally, I have a bet on for Bitcoin to top a million by the end of the cycle, which is later in 2028.”at 40:39

• Adam Back · BlockstreamNeutral

  AI-assisted attacks have hit exchanges, not Bitcoin's core network; custody and cold storage matter more.

  Back says AI-assisted computer security is in transition, with growing activity on both offence and defence. Bitcoin's core network has had no major AI-linked vulnerability, but online systems around it, such as trading platforms and the Binance hack, have been compromised. This puts cold storage and custody, which ETF providers use, at the forefront.

  “Bitcoin itself, the core network, hasn't had any major vulnerability arising from that, but a lot of the online systems around it, like the trading platforms, the Binance hack and so on, have.”at 42:02

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 110 speakers in other episodes, 92 bullish and 64 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Theresa Payton · Fortalice SolutionsUncertain

  Nvidia has no known CEO succession plan, a concerning problem given Huang's centrality.

  Payton says there is no known succession plan at Nvidia and no ready next CEO to step in if Huang were asked to step down. She calls that a concerning problem, given how important the AI ecosystem is to the company. She also says the national security allegations are under investigation, so more facts are needed before drawing conclusions.

  “there is no known succession plan for NVIDIA. And so that is a concerning problem. There's no ready next CEO ready to step into place to take over if he were asked to step down.”at 15:46

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 93 speakers in other episodes, 30 bullish and 103 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Pippa Stevens · CNBCUncertain

  CoreWeave's shift away from unsecured debt could slow its data center buildout if yields keep rising.

  CoreWeave said it will not use unsecured debt at current yields and does not need to. Pippa notes unsecured debt is more expensive than secured loans, but if CoreWeave cannot raise junior debt, its expansion plans and the pace of its data center buildout could be constrained. Rising yields would have wider ripple effects across capital-intensive AI infrastructure.

  “he said that they're not going to use unsecured debt to fund their business at the current yields, nor do they need to... if they're unable to raise junior debt, what does that mean in terms of their expansion plans going forward and the rate at which they want to build out the data centers”at 46:17

US stock market outlook

• Michael Santoli · CNBC

  S&P repaired and still in uptrend, but AI enthusiasm could push rates up and cap gains.

  Santoli says the S&P 500 has climbed out of its post-election hole and is in a neutral spot. It held the July lows and did not break its 200-day moving average, so the uptrend is intact. But the index has been coiled, not launched, and he doesn't expect a large move higher. Getting excited about AI would likely push rates up and bring the Fed into the picture, which offsets the upside.

  “I do think it climbed out of the hole for the S and P. It's in a pretty neutral spot right now... So we held the July lows, you didn't break the 200 moving average, it's still an uptrend. But it doesn't necessarily mean that... we're going to shoot that much higher from here.”at 2:57

• Andy Goldberg · Nomura Asset Management International

  Tech likely outperforms as base case, but added accident risk argues for diversifying away from it.

  Goldberg's base case is that tech still outperforms. But he says he already has the exposure he needs, since about 40% of the S&P 500 sits in 10 stocks, so adding more tech adds little. The risk of an accident has risen over the last few weeks, so he favors adding diversification to the portfolio even though tech remains the likely winner.

  “my base case is like you still got to stick tech and the most likely scenario is it does outperform. But as an investor that's trying to shape a diversified portfolio that's durable... And so when the risk of an accident is higher, I like to kind of add diversification to the portfolio”at 6:19

• Andy Goldberg · Nomura Asset Management International

  Non-tech sectors look cheap; consumer staples trade at a 30-year relative low versus other sectors.

  Consumer staples are trading at their lowest level relative to the other 10 sectors in 30 years. Broad-market earnings outside tech are still double digits while prices have fallen. Small caps beat large caps early in 2026 as the market broadened, but that reversed when rates surged. The broadening could return if rates stay contained. About half of Russell 3000 stocks are down 20% or more since June, so most stocks are not expensive even though the S&P 500 is near a record.

  “the consumer staples sector is trading at its lowest level relative to the other 10 [sectors] at any point in the last thirty years.”at 7:10

US rates & the Fed

• Andy Goldberg · Nomura Asset Management International

  Fed overreached with last year's cuts and may reverse some; rates should stay contained into 2027.

  Goldberg reads Chair Warsh's remarks as showing the Fed sees last year's three cuts as a policy mistake. The Fed is focused on inflation returning to target rather than on employment, and it is talking about removing excess accommodation. He thinks the Fed has taken back one cut and wants to take two more back. The short-end rate increases give him confidence that the Fed's inflation control is working, so he expects rates to be well behaved in 2027.

  “Think the Fed looks at last year's three rate cuts as a policy mistake... I think they cut rates three times last year. I think he took one back. I think he wants to take two more back.”at 8:23

• Pippa Stevens · CNBC

  Higher-for-longer rates may replace the expectation that hiking cycles are followed by cuts; companies must adjust.

  Since the financial crisis, every rate-hiking cycle has been treated as temporary, with rates expected to fall back afterward. Pippa says that assumption may no longer hold, so companies will have to get used to a higher-for-longer rate environment that many are not prepared for.

  “every rate hiking cycle has been seen as, We'll get to the other side of this and then rates will come back down. Increasingly, we're seeing that that might not be the case. These companies will have to get used to this higher for longer interest rate environment that a lot of them are not used to.”at 45:18

Credit markets

• Pippa Stevens · CNBC

  Riskier speculative-grade debt is front-loaded; distressed borrowers' share of near-term maturities is rising.

  Per Moody's, speculative-grade debt maturing in 2028 fell to $356 billion from $613 billion last year as companies refinanced. What remains is riskier: 27% of speculative debt maturing in the next two years belongs to distressed companies, up from 19% last year. Credit spreads have widened for distressed borrowers, and higher rates make refinancing much more expensive.

  “But what's left is riskier. Of the spec debt maturing in the next two years, 27% is for distressed companies, up from 19% last year.”at 44:00

• Pippa Stevens · CNBC

  Investment-grade refinancing wall is manageable, but higher Treasury yields raise costs and could squeeze profits.

  Investment-grade debt is less of a concern: a record $1.56 trillion comes due from next year through 2031, and spreads are near the tightest in decades. However, total refinancing costs have risen because of higher Treasury yields. Every dollar spent on higher interest costs is a dollar not going to shareholders or investment, so a tougher refinancing cycle could squeeze profits.

  “But total costs have increased because of higher Treasury yields. And every dollar that goes to higher interest costs is a dollar not going to shareholders or investment, so a tougher refinancing cycle could squeeze profits.”at 44:30

US Treasuries & yields

• Andy Goldberg · Nomura Asset Management International

  Bonds hold the real value now; multi-asset portfolios moving back toward 60/40 from 70/30.

  Goldberg says the real value in the market is in bonds. Over the past decade, when there was no alternative to stocks, many investors drifted toward roughly 70% stocks and 30% bonds. His multi-asset portfolios are moving back toward 60/40. He ties the bond case to rates surging earlier in 2026 and to his expectation that rates will stay contained.

  “bonds too, that's the other thing. The real value is actually in bonds.”at 10:32

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Andy Goldberg · Nomura Asset Management International

  AI capex buildout is in sixth or seventh inning, with more to go.

  Goldberg says the AI capex buildout is in its sixth or seventh inning, so there is more to go. He also doubts it can ramp up much from here, which suggests the cycle is late. That is why he thinks investors should build diversified portfolios now, so they can navigate the corners when the cycle turns.

  “we think we're in the sixth or seventh inning of this AI CapEx build out. More to go, for sure.”at 11:06

US–China AI & chip race

• Theresa Payton · Fortalice Solutions

  Chip-location tracking is flawed; propose self-attestation plus third-party audits to verify chips.

  Payton argues AI chips are a national strategic asset, and their diversion to China would be a national security risk. The episode exposes flaws in how the US tracks chips after they are sold. Debate continues over putting tracking devices on chips. She proposes a middle path: companies self-attest where chips will be installed, and an agreed third-party audit firm periodically verifies that the chips are still there.

  “But you could do independent verification and validation. So you could say, I self attest, I'm buying these chips. These chips are gonna be installed here. And periodically I have a third party audit firm...”at 17:04

Cybersecurity

• Theresa Payton · Fortalice Solutions

  Boards overlook espionage risk; every business and executive is an espionage target.

  Payton argues boards focus on physical and digital security of executives but nobody examines who gets onto executives' calendars. CEOs of important companies are targets of national and international espionage, and they should not have to act as their own counterintelligence officers. She says every business is a national security business, especially in critical infrastructure. Espionage for economic and intellectual property reasons is real and happening, so every executive team is a target.

  “nobody's really taking a look at the people that get on the executives calendars. And we shouldn't be expecting CEOs who are targets of both... national and international espionage.”at 17:32

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Michael Santoli · CNBC

  Semiconductor peak in June may have marked the speculative peak of the AI theme.

  Santoli compares the June run-up to the SpaceX IPO with today's sentiment. Investors were very excited then, and the overall market peaked around the same time semiconductors did. He sees that as potentially the speculative peak of the AI theme. Recent IPO-tracking ETFs have underperformed going into the Anthropic IPO, and he suggests that may mean less hot money in the trade.

  “Of course, the overall market, this is when semiconductors peak. I've kind of looked at it as potentially the speculative peak of the AI theme. We'll see if that plays out.”at 27:00

Software & SaaS

• Pippa Stevens · CNBC

  About $40 billion of software debt maturing could be vulnerable to AI replacement, raising refinancing risk.

  Pippa relays Moody's finding that about $40 billion of the speculative-grade software debt maturing in the near term could be susceptible to replacement by AI. Combined with wider spreads and higher rates, this makes refinancing harder for software borrowers already pressured by AI disruption fears.

  “That includes 40,000,000,000 of software debt, the firm said, could be susceptible to replacement by AI.”at 44:08

Private equity

• Pippa Stevens · CNBC

  Distressed-debt stress could spread up the credit ladder if private equity is forced to sell at losses.

  If distressed credit weakens, private equity funds facing redemptions may be unable to offload those positions. They could then be forced to sell higher-quality holdings at a loss, which would lower prices across the credit chain. Pippa stresses there are no warning bells yet, but says this is worth watching in a rising-rate environment.

  “if private equity, for example, is then forced to get out of some of these positions because of redemptions and they can't offload the distressed, then they might move up the value chain and then have to sell some of those at a loss, lowering those prices as well.”at 45:19