Closing Bell 11/11/26

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 109 speakers in other episodes, 91 bullish and 63 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsUncertain

  Nvidia's about nine times forward earnings, but she won't buy until the CEO's fate is clear.

  She still believes Nvidia can earn $20 a share in fiscal 2028, which puts the stock at about nine times earnings, and gross margins have been derisked in the mid-70s. She is holding, not buying, because the stock is binary on the CEO: if Jensen Huang leaves, the stock falls. Investigations could run for four to six months or longer and keep a lid on the shares, though the stock is rallying today on CoreWeave and Anthropic, not Nvidia-specific news.

  “I'm holding them because I still believe that they can earn $20 a share in fiscal twenty eight. That puts the stock at nine times earnings.”at 4:34

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning GroupBearish

  Nvidia shares face more downside than upside; he now leans toward selling over the coming year.

  He expects six to twelve months of congressional hearings on what Jensen Huang knew and when, which will keep the stock flat and make it dead money for investors. No one is buying the dip with conviction, and the likelihood of downside is far greater than the likelihood the shares are flat to positive over one, three or twelve months. He is less on the fence than before and now thinks it is probably time to sell, though he admits there is little else attractive to replace the stock with.

  “But I actually think now it's probably time to go ahead and sell. ... the likelihood that the shares have a downside is far greater than the likelihood that the shares are flat to positive a month from now, three months from now, twelve months from now.”at 5:45

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset ManagementBullish

  The Huang overhang should clear within weeks, after which Nvidia can find a floor and be bought.

  He argues the oversight will resolve quickly: within a week or a month it should be clear whether Huang disclosed something material or did something inappropriate. If he did nothing wrong, the overhang fades for investors even though hearings and scrutiny continue, a floor can form within a couple of days, and the stock can base from there. Jensen Huang and Nvidia are inseparable, so the CEO is not going anywhere. He frames this partly as playing devil's advocate, and admits nobody knows yet whether anything was wrong.

  “Listen. Maybe he did something wrong. I have no idea. ... What I'm saying is if he did nothing wrong, it's not gonna take six months to figure it out. You're gonna know pretty quickly at which point you can buy the stock.”at 8:36

Anthropic

Across the shows: 114 speakers in other episodes, 157 bullish and 93 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning GroupBullish

  Anthropic's IPO is critical for the AI ecosystem, and reports of oversubscription support the AI trade.

  He says the IPO is hugely important for the AI ecosystem right now. Reporting that it will be oversubscribed reverses concerns from a day earlier about weak interest. Combined with CoreWeave's results and the CEO's pledge to stop share sales, this suggests the AI trade is still rolling and the data center backlash may have been overdone.

  “It's impossible to overstate how important [Anthropic's] IPO is for the ecosystem right now.”at 10:03

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset ManagementBullish

  Anthropic's IPO will go fine; demand is strong, though it may not go as perfectly as before.

  He thinks it would help the market if the largest IPO in history goes well, but sees little risk it won't, since many people are paid to make sure it does. CoreWeave's results showed enormous AI demand from all quarters, with demand capacity about 10 times supply. The deal may not go as perfectly as it might have a month or three months ago, but he expects it to go fine. He also notes the adjusted profitability figures are an open question because of stock-based compensation and other adjustments.

  “But I don't think there's really much of a risk of it not going well. ... So I think this will go well. It may not go as perfectly ... but it's gonna go fine.”at 12:44

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsUncertain

  Anthropic's roughly $1.3 trillion IPO valuation is better, but its losses and profitability are concerning.

  She is glad the IPO did not price at about $2 trillion, because roughly $1.3 trillion is a much better valuation and sets the company up to succeed. She is concerned about profitability: Anthropic reported a third-quarter operating loss of about $567 million, and she expects it to keep struggling for several quarters, maybe years. She owns SpaceX and Meta, both big Anthropic customers, so she already has indirect exposure and does not want to add concentrated exposure.

  “the profitability metric is kind of concerning, and I think they're gonna probably be struggling in that regard for the next several quarters, maybe even years.”at 14:07

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset Management

  AI compute demand remains enormous, with CoreWeave reporting about 10 times more demand than capacity.

  CoreWeave's results showed enormous AI demand coming from all quarters, and its demand-to-capacity ratio was about 10 times in favor of demand. That supports the view that the AI investment story remains on track, which is why he thinks rate hikes won't derail it.

  “there's still enormous demand for AI coming from all quarters.”at 12:44

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Data center spending to 2030 will fall short of $7 trillion but still reach $3-4 trillion.

  The $7 trillion projection for data center spending through 2030 may be too high, and she thinks it could be closer to $3-4 trillion. That is still a lot of money. Supply is far short of demand: the market is short compute, short memory and short people. The winners in the trade are still up double digits year to date, and companies are sold out until 2030 with backlog being pulled forward, so visibility is high.

  “So maybe we're not gonna spend $7,000,000,000,000 on data centers between now and 2030. ... Maybe it's 3 to 4,000,000,000,000. That's still a lot of money, and you really don't have enough supply out there at all.”at 15:44

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset Management

  State governors' data center pushback is rent extraction, not a threat to construction or profits.

  Markets worry about what the new Texas and Ohio governors will do about data centers, but he thinks they are rational actors trying to extract compensation from private sector players. Those players will pay money that goes to improve the grid, which reduces the 40 gigawatts of capacity not coming online in the next couple of years and makes it easier for data center companies to be profitable. He thinks the governors are not trying to stop construction.

  “They are most likely just trying to extract rents from the private sector to shore up exactly what Steph is talking about.”at 17:02

• Eric Freedman · Northern Trust

  AI market still leans toward demand over supply; a supply delay in Nvidia's report would be problematic.

  Friedman says the ecosystem still has a bias toward more demand than supply, which he expects to continue. He points to Nvidia's report next week and Anthropic as the two big events. If the Nvidia report shows supply being delayed further out, that would be a kink in the armor and problematic. He otherwise sees the current pressure in tech as a positioning issue more than a fundamental one.

  “the ecosystem, we still think as that bias towards more demand versus supply, Scott. We think that continues again. If there's a kink in the armor, if you will, from the NVIDIA report suggesting that... supply is even more further delayed out in the future. That would be problematic”at 45:16

US rates & the Fed

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset Management

  The Fed will keep hiking rates; the market is more sensitive to the AI trade than to Fed moves.

  He has argued for years that the AI trade matters more to markets than the Fed. He expects the Fed to keep hiking rates, which is separate from whether it should. Another 25-basis-point hike in December wouldn't shock markets, and December and January could be harder to absorb than December and March. Hyperscalers aren't much affected by 25 or 50 basis points, so the market shouldn't worry unless the Fed moves to 100-200 basis points.

  “So the Fed's gonna keep hiking rates. Whether they should or shouldn't is a whole separate conversation.”at 22:12

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning Group

  The Fed won't do enough to tame inflation, so markets keep rotating back to green.

  He agrees with Dan that the Fed is unwilling to do what is required to get a real handle on inflation, and that is why the market keeps rotating back to green. If investors believed the Fed would pour cold water on inflation by January or March, fixed income would be hit, hyperscalers' ability to borrow to build out would suffer, and earnings would be affected. Since that is not happening, markets keep rallying.

  “the Fed not being willing to do the thing that we all know is what is required to get a real handle on inflation is the reason that the market keeps rotating back to green day after day.”at 23:30

• Eric Freedman · Northern Trust

  Fed should stay contained near 2% and wait-and-see unless inflation expectations become unhinged.

  Friedman says two to two and a half percent for next year is probably the right number, and that the Fed has to get ahead of second-order inflation effects. He points to the Bank of England and ECB warning about expectations getting unhinged. As long as that does not happen, he thinks the Fed is contained at about 2% and can move to a data-dependent wait-and-see mode, which markets want. He sees the hike risk as tied to inflation expectations rather than current data.

  “We think the two to two and a half for next year is probably the right number... As long as that doesn't happen, Scott, we think the Fed is probably contained at two”at 46:02

Power demand & the grid

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Grid and power spending will exceed $1 trillion because the grid is old and power is short.

  She expects the spend on the grid to continue at $1 trillion or more and believes spending on power will also exceed a trillion dollars because there isn't enough power. About 75% of the grid is more than 25 years old, built between 1915 and 1960, with a 50-to-80-year shelf life, so it needs upgrading. She says she owns mainly Quanta Services, Eaton, GE Vernova and Vertiv in this trade, and she doesn't worry about the grid if data center spending comes down.

  “I think you're also gonna spend a trillion dollars plus on power because we don't have enough power.”at 15:44

• Malcolm Ethridge · Capital Area Planning Group

  Power stocks trade on data center spend expectations, so any hyperscaler pullback would hit them.

  He disagrees that power stocks are only about grid refresh needs. Grid refresh is real but has nothing to do with how much credit the market gives power companies for the money being spent on data center buildouts. If hyperscalers pull back spending, power names won't get the benefit of the doubt that spending will continue, since their valuations rest on expectations for the next data center and gigawatt delivered to hyperscalers.

  “We do need to refresh the grid ... but that has absolutely nothing to do with how much credit the market is giving these companies for the money that's being spent with them for the data center build out.”at 18:08

US consumer

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  The consumer is holding up while jobs and wage growth stay strong.

  She cites Bank of America credit card data showing October was the third-best month in four years, the data she watches monthly. As long as the consumer has a job, the labor market is still very healthy, with wages growing 3.5 to 4.5% and job switchers getting about 5%. That is why she thinks the consumer will keep consuming and why the consumer is critical to her market view.

  “The consumer is hanging in there. Credit card data from Bank of America, third best month in four years last month. ... As long as the consumer has a job, wages are growing three and a half, four and a half percent.”at 21:25

Stablecoins & crypto policy

• Brian Armstrong · Coinbase

  Crypto rules will keep advancing via SEC and CFTC rule-setting despite the Clarity Act's setback.

  Armstrong argues that the Genius Act takes effect in January 2027 and has already produced a commensurate increase in stablecoin interest. He says it is a shame the Clarity Act died in the legislature, but that it lives on in spirit through rapid SEC and CFTC rule-setting. He expects the popularity of the asset class plus those rules to shape how the country reacts to blockchain and crypto assets, whatever happens to Clarity. He hedges that he is an optimist and that anything could happen.

  “So it's a real shame that Clarity died in letter, but it's living on in spirit through very, very rapid rule setting by both the SEC and CFTC.”at 36:15

US stock market outlook

• Eric Freedman · Northern Trust

  Tech remains the market to own; earnings revisions keep the bias higher until proven otherwise.

  Friedman says investors fear the shadow financing web will eventually break, but until it does the bias is higher. He cites revisions that are rising not only for hyperscalers but also for second- and third-tier players. He says the market must be owned until proven otherwise and that tech is still favored. He expects some broadening, with equal-weight exposure such as RSP still worthwhile, but the bias on rates is slightly higher.

  “Everyone says, hey... this web of... shadow financing is gonna at some point break. Until it does, we still think the bias is higher. You're seeing revisions, not just to hyperscalers, but also now the second and third tier players”at 43:59

US Treasuries & yields

• Eric Freedman · Northern Trust

  A 10-year yield above 5.25% would trigger commercial real estate and regional bank stress.

  Friedman sets 5.25% on the 10-year Treasury yield as the line of demarcation. A 10-year hovering at 5.25% and then falling back is fine for markets, which can still broaden. A reading north of 5.25% would bring commercial real estate and regional bank concerns, which he says the market does not want to go through. He frames rates as the key constraint on whether a broader rally can happen.

  “I think if we're sub five and a quarter, that for us would be like the line of demarcation... North of five and a quarter, we start talking about commercial real estate. We start talking about regional bank consideration.”at 44:49