Closing Bell 11/10/26

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 96 speakers in other episodes, 77 bullish and 50 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stacy Rasgon · Bernstein ResearchUncertain

  Nvidia is built around Jensen Huang; stock looks cheap but has downside if he leaves.

  Rasgon argues the risk is key-man dependence: 'Jensen is Nvidia. Nvidia is Jensen.' He worries less about near-term operations than about who would set the five- and ten-year roadmap if Huang left. He says the stock is pretty cheap if Huang stays, but if he leaves it probably has downside, though he can't say how much. He expects the investigation headlines to be an overhang over the next several months, mostly negative on the tape even when the underlying stories have more nuance.

  “And I would say that if he doesn't leave, the stock is pretty cheap. But if he does leave, it's probably got downside. ... And and this is gonna be an overhang.”at 10:01

• Lo Toney · Plexo CapitalUncertain

  Nvidia's leadership allegations are serious; reserve judgment until the investigation concludes.

  Toney says his assessment hasn't changed. The allegations are very serious, but the board has expressed confidence in Huang and selected an individual and a law firm to lead the investigation, which he sees as positive. He expects more news to come out, so the advice is to take a step back and not jump to conclusions until a thorough internal investigation and the Commerce Department review are done. He argues the AI trade is resilient because it is bigger than one company. Nvidia has a strong bench of executives, but Huang is the founder and carries a unique role with the administration and in AI.

  “These are very serious allegations... the board has expressed confidence in Jensen. ... So I think for the moment, we just need to take a step back, digest everything, not jump to any conclusions.”at 22:46

• James Taylor · Wells Fargo Advisors (The Taylor Group)Bullish

  Believes in Nvidia over the next twelve months despite short-term volatility; expects an earnings surprise.

  He says Nvidia is backed by about 41,000 employees, including 31,000 engineers, so it is not dependent on one person, and that demand is still there. He expects the company to surprise on earnings. He acknowledges short-term volatility from recent news and says it is too early to judge that, but he holds a twelve-month view that is positive on Nvidia.

  “We do believe in NVIDIA over the next twelve months, but short term, there might be some volatility.”at 49:01

Anthropic

Across the shows: 110 speakers in other episodes, 146 bullish and 89 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Lo Toney · Plexo CapitalBullish

  Bullish on Anthropic's IPO; expects it to do well and rise once trading begins.

  Toney is an early Anthropic investor. He cites revenue growing rapidly, accelerating enterprise adoption, and the company's establishment as one of the leading AI platforms. He calls the roughly $1.2 to $1.4 trillion valuation range very impressive and sees the price as healthy price discovery, since the worst outcome would be pricing so aggressive that public investors miss the upside. If the offering is well received, he expects meaningful appreciation once trading begins. He says the real opportunity is value creation over five to ten years, and his open questions are whether the valuation justifies the momentum and how the lockup schedule affects the stock.

  “At the IPO, I think it's gonna do well. ... I'm bullish on the company, and I think that just looking at the kind of ability to push through and to actually proceed with the listing, very important.”at 18:42

US stock market outlook

• Sherry Paul · Morgan Stanley

  Sticking with an 8,000 year-end market target; rotation broadening the market carries it there.

  Paul is sticking to her 8,000 year-end target. She says a rotation is not a rejection but just a rotation, and that the broadening of money across sectors and constituencies is what gets the market there. She acknowledges talk that data centers may be delayed but argues they will not be denied, so the AI buildout trend is inevitable. She contrasts this with poor outcomes or recession, which is what usually takes a market down.

  “You know, a rotation's not a rejection. It's just a rotation. And, you know, all the talk about data centers, they might be delayed, but they're not gonna be denied.”at 35:59

• Sherry Paul · Morgan Stanley

  Keeps overweight tech and industrials and favors large caps; expects everything to become tech next year.

  Large caps have the balance sheets and capital to pivot, and holding companies are driving consolidation and concentration, so she prefers large caps. Her firm is sticking with its overweight in tech and industrials, since tech outperformed the rest of the market over the past year. She expects that next year nearly every company will behave like a tech company as the technology spreads.

  “So we're sticking with our overweight in tech and industrials. And next year, we're gonna see everything turn into a tech company.”at 37:01

• Sherry Paul · Morgan Stanley

  Market is broadening beyond megacaps and the S&P can reach 8,000; she is bullish on the index.

  Last year more than 40% of the market's return came from the top 10 companies. This year every S&P sector except two is positive, which she reads as a genuine broadening out. She notes the index trades at 18 times earnings and 88% of companies beat, and says the market will reach 8,000 and beyond. She argues that a rally this broad supports the index going higher, not a narrow, fragile one.

  “Last year, you know, more than 40% of the return was from the top 10 companies. Alright? This year, every single sector of the S and P is positive except for two. That's a broadening out.”at 38:34

• James Taylor · Wells Fargo Advisors (The Taylor Group)

  Likes healthcare into year-end after its roughly 13% rise since August.

  He recommended health care names in mid-August and says the sector has since gained about 13%. He still likes health care going into the end of the year. The view is a sector call based on the recent rally and the outlook into year-end.

  “I like health care. I think, you know, I was out here in in mid August talking about health care names.”at 49:35

US rates & the Fed

• Chris Harvey · CIBC Capital Markets

  Fed likely hikes in December but will be less aggressive next year as data-center inflation fades.

  Harvey thinks the Fed should be less hawkish and that the market is already tightening for it. He expects a December hike and then says it is done. He argues that the data-center buildout was a major driver of inflation and will show less growth going forward, while tighter financial conditions are already doing the Fed's work. So if investors expected aggressive hikes next year, they should dial that back, and he doesn't think the Fed will be as aggressive as many people expect.

  “I think they'll hike in December. I think it's done. ... If you thought they were gonna be very aggressive next year, I think you have to dial that back despite what you're seeing today.”at 29:27

• Angie Newman · Rockefeller Capital Management

  A 25bp December hike won't meaningfully hit earnings; it mainly hurts firms reliant on outside capital.

  Newman agrees that a 25 basis point hike in December won't meaningfully affect earnings. In her view, the impact falls more on companies that rely on outside capital. She expects a December hike of 25 basis points. If the Fed went 50, she thinks the market would show some weakness.

  “I don't think that a 25 basis point raise in December is gonna meaningfully affect earnings. Again, I think it will more so affect the companies that rely on outside capital.”at 30:08

• Sherry Paul · Morgan Stanley

  Expects the Fed to raise rates a couple more times, which will be tough for small caps.

  She expects the Fed to hike a couple more times and says that will be hard on small caps, while large caps with strong balance sheets can absorb it. She argues the Fed only stops market growth through aggressive tightening, citing October 2022, when it hiked aggressively and the Nasdaq fell 60%. She sees the current hikes as much smaller than that, so she is not worried about the Fed.

  “We'll probably see the Fed raise rates a couple more times. That's a little bit tough for small caps.”at 36:43

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Chris Harvey · CIBC Capital Markets

  Hyperscaler capex is flattening and extending, which creates scarcity value and should lift their multiples.

  Harvey says the hyperscalers are in good shape and his firm is moving from defense to offense, adding to hyperscaler conviction. He argues that hyperscalers are taking their capex spend and cycle and flattening and extending it. That helps them with funding issues, creates scarcity value, and should expand their multiples. He sees hyperscalers as a different category from neoclouds.

  “What you're doing is you're taking that CapEx spend and that CapEx cycle and you're flattening it and extending it. That's great for the hyperscalers. Right? That creates scarcity value.”at 25:56

• Angie Newman · Rockefeller Capital Management

  Companies will keep spending on AI capex; no meaningful deceleration is visible.

  Newman says capex is a concern, but her firm thinks companies will keep spending and doesn't see any meaningful deceleration. She also argues data centers have to be built. Hyperscalers, who do most of the building, will need to give local governments and communities incentives bigger than job creation or tax breaks. Even if one state stops building, she expects the build to happen elsewhere.

  “The CapEx thing is a concern also, and we think that companies are gonna continue to spend. We don't see any meaningful deceleration there.”at 28:32

AI chips & semiconductors

• Stacy Rasgon · Bernstein Research

  AI chip market is big enough for multiple suppliers, so competitive dynamics matter less now.

  Rasgon argues that competitive dynamics don't matter as much in this environment: if the market is big, there is room for everybody, and if it is not, everybody has problems. He points to strong guidance across the group: Nvidia's market expected around $700 billion, Broadcom saying it will do $115 billion, AMD guiding server revenue to double and GPU revenue to nearly triple, and smaller players like Qualcomm also benefiting. He notes that the market environment has been incredibly supportive of everyone selling into it. Longer term, competitors are always trying to eat your lunch, so Nvidia has to keep investing to stay ahead.

  “If it's big, I think there's room for everybody. And if it's not big, everybody has problems. ... Right now, the market environment has been incredibly supportive of everybody that has something to sell into it.”at 13:11

Earnings & corporate profits

• Sherry Paul · Morgan Stanley

  S&P earnings growth of 31% ahead; earnings are not peaking, which supports the bull case.

  She says the rally's cause is earnings. The index trades at 18 times earnings, 88% of companies beat, and she projects 31% earnings growth going forward. She rejects the idea that earnings are peaking, which is the main argument for a market top, so the earnings setup supports her bullish view into the new year.

  “Earnings. We're 18 times earnings now setting up... We're looking at 31% earnings growth going forward.”at 38:42

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Sherry Paul · Morgan Stanley

  Volatility has not peaked and dispersion will rise, but not a 10-20% catastrophic decline.

  She expects volatility to stay high and its dispersion across stocks to grow. She separates that from a real bad outcome, such as a recession or a catastrophic decline of 10 to 20%, which she does not expect. Her case is that the environment is volatile but the earnings backdrop is strong, so investors should prepare for swings rather than a crash.

  “But what I do think is that we haven't peaked in volatility... the dispersion of volatility will likely increase. That's different than something bad happening that will lead to a catastrophic decline of more than 10 or 20, 15% in the market.”at 38:49

Enterprise AI adoption & AI software

• Sherry Paul · Morgan Stanley

  AI will cause corporate extinction events; staples, banks, financials and energy are cushions.

  She argues AI is advancing so fast that the disruption to companies is immeasurable, and she calls the resulting failures corporate extinction events. Companies that deploy the technology to cut costs should benefit, so she sees staples, banks, financials and energy as places to cushion a portfolio. She treats AI-driven cost reduction as the mechanism behind those sector picks.

  “I've been referring to them as corporate extinction events. ... this particular tech is advancing at such a rapid pace that the disruption is immeasurable.”at 39:59

US inflation

• Sherry Paul · Morgan Stanley

  AI is fundamentally deflationary, so the market will tame inflation next year more than expected.

  She argues that AI lowers companies' costs, which should become deflationary as the technology spreads. She expects that effect to show up next year and to bring inflation down more than people realize. That is why she says she does not worry much about the Fed.

  “hopefully, then at a certain point, we should see this be deflationary next year. This is why I don't worry so much about the Fed. The market's gonna take care of inflation next year to a greater degree than I think people realize because this tech is fundamentally deflationary.”at 40:29