Closing Bell 11/9/26

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 84 speakers in other episodes, 69 bullish and 42 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Alex Kantrowitz · Big TechnologyNeutral

  Jensen Huang is unlikely to step down over the scandal because the board is loyal to him.

  Kantrowitz says Huang's departure would be shattering because the company runs through him, with about 60 direct reports and the vision and relationships centered on him. He does not see him stepping down because the board is very friendly to him and has backed leaders through similar turmoil elsewhere in AI. He notes Huang appears to have misled the board by denying anything unusual, and that boards dislike that, so he would not rule it out entirely. He would still be stunned if the board fired him. Nvidia would not falter immediately, since it has a roadmap and production plan, but he says it would not be here without Huang.

  “I will say I don't see him stepping down as a result of this. The board is very friendly to Jensen.”at 19:12

• Lo Toney · Plexo CapitalNeutral

  He does not believe Jensen Huang will step down, assuming the scandal news is contained.

  Toney frames the issue in three layers: Nvidia's internal leadership depth and succession planning, Huang's role as the AI industry's spokesperson and convener of governments and capital providers, and the resilience of the AI economy as a whole. He says the internal succession question is real. He does not think Huang will step down, provided the news stays where it is now.

  “I do not believe we will see Jensen step down assuming that we've contained what the news is at this point.”at 33:35

Anthropic

Across the shows: 105 speakers in other episodes, 137 bullish and 89 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Lo Toney · Plexo CapitalBullish

  Anthropic is performing extraordinarily well; AI demand is real, with revenue up 47% sequentially.

  Toney, an early Anthropic investor, separates the company's performance from the investment. He cites third-quarter revenue up 47% sequentially to nearly $17 billion as evidence that AI demand is real. The market's question has shifted from proving demand to proving economic returns on roughly $900 billion of infrastructure spending. He calls Anthropic one of the most important companies of the next decade.

  “the company is performing extraordinarily well. Revenues grew 47% sequentially to nearly 17,000,000,000 in the third quarter. So it's not a question about whether AI demand is real.”at 29:21

• Lo Toney · Plexo CapitalBullish

  Anthropic's IPO should price in the next few weeks at roughly $1.2–1.3 trillion.

  Toney believes the IPO will get done in the next few weeks. The expected range has moved from $1.5–2 trillion to $1–1.5 trillion, and he thinks about $1.2–1.3 trillion is where it will land. He says the lower price reflects the environment, with investors weighing long-term demand against the risk of data center build-outs, not a weaker company. He says he will be happy at any clearing price because he entered at an $18 billion Series D valuation.

  “feels like 1.2 to 1.3 is is where it will land.”at 30:04

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 87 speakers in other episodes, 25 bullish and 95 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Oliver Renick · CNBCUncertain

  CoreWeave is set for a big post-earnings move, with options flow turning bearish into the report.

  Renick expects a large move after the report, since options market makers are pricing about a 16% swing and CoreWeave has fallen after five of its six reports since going public. Flows were balanced early but turned as big bears sold 25,000 of the November 20 60-strike calls for $4 million while buying the same-expiry puts. He calls it a trade that uses CoreWeave's high implied volatility to offset the cost of expensive puts, and says sellers of rich premium on the calls give the trader a wider range of not-bullish outcomes.

  “I think the biggest surprise would be if it didn't post a massive move after this report.”at 40:41

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Kevin Gordon · Charles Schwab (Schwab Center for Financial Research)

  Data center investment curbs will not arrive overnight; both parties are still unsettled on the policy.

  Gordon agrees the social pushback against data centers is bipartisan and visible in the midterm results. But he argues there is no clear single policy direction, because both parties are still working out their stance. That uncertainty will likely stretch out any pressure on build-outs. He does not expect a policy restricting data center investment to arrive just as Congress changes leadership.

  “So I don't think that it's going to be this moment in time... that you're gonna get some sort of policy that comes out of the gate restricting that investment overnight.”at 8:00

• Chris Heisey · Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank

  Nvidia's fallout may reduce capital destruction by steering financing away from weaker AI projects.

  Heisey says it is early to tell, but the Nvidia situation could mean less capital destruction. The worry was that financing would be unavailable. If capital was flowing indiscriminately to lower-quality players, a tighter, more discriminating funding environment would help. He suggests that outcome could bring lower compute prices, lower oil and inflation, lower yields, and a longer cycle, though that requires the capital to keep going to the stronger players.

  “it actually potentially signals that you get less capital destruction because the worry was that the capital financing wasn't going to be there.”at 13:00

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  AI spending visibility is high for the next twelve months, with later years less certain.

  Lee argues markets look about twelve months ahead, and visibility on AI infrastructure spending over that window is quite high. Anything beyond that is excess uncertainty, so a pullback in AI spending does not need to support a broader crisis narrative. This supports a view that the AI build-out is not at risk of an abrupt halt within the next year.

  “I think the visibility around AI spending is actually quite high for the next twelve months, and then everything beyond that is excess visibility”at 13:48

• David Solomon · Goldman Sachs

  Demand for AI infrastructure investment remains very strong; capital markets are open and constructive.

  Solomon says the market is recalibrating risk somewhat differently than a couple of months ago, but that does not change the underlying interest in AI infrastructure and its technology. Transactions are occurring, and the market environment is still pretty constructive. He acknowledges that growth and investment in AI infrastructure will not be a straight line as people refine their understanding of the facts, politics and demand.

  “There's still very strong demand for investments in the AI infrastructure build and the technology around the growth of AI.”at 26:56

• Lo Toney · Plexo Capital

  Midterms added local permitting risk to data center build-outs, lowering how investors price AI infrastructure.

  Toney says the midterm election was a shock, but investors were already weighing the risk of building out data centers. The new element is extra risk around permits being issued at the local level. That uncertainty is one reason the Anthropic IPO range has come down. He still sees the broader AI economy as strong.

  “The thing that the midterm elections added is now there's additional risk when it comes to thinking about the issuing of permits at the local level.”at 31:30

US growth & recession risk

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  The economy is not late-cycle: consumers are not highly levered, and the ISM expansion is young.

  Lee argues against the late-cycle view. Consumers are not highly levered, so they are not tapped out. The ISM only moved above 50 in January of this year. If the economy were late-cycle, this would be the shortest ISM expansion on record, which he finds implausible. That supports the view that the expansion has more room to run.

  “Consumers aren't highly levered, so we know consumers aren't tapped out. And the ISM only turned above 50 in January of this year. If if we're late cycle, it would be the shortest ISM expansion ever.”at 6:30

• Kevin Gordon · Charles Schwab (Schwab Center for Financial Research)

  A sudden pullback in AI-related business investment would tip US GDP into recessionary territory.

  Gordon notes that business investment in the US, which is not all AI-related, still accounts for a very large share of GDP growth this year. That makes the economy highly sensitive to AI and data center spending. If that spending suddenly stopped, GDP would mechanically fall into recessionary territory. This is why investors are so hypersensitive to the AI trade. He frames it as a conditional risk rather than a base case.

  “You're about to see just a sudden slowdown to nothing. If that was the case, then, yeah, mechanically, you would tip GDP into what would I think would be considered recessionary territory.”at 7:28

• Andrew Krei · Crescent Grove Advisors

  US economy is healthy, with real GDP near low-to-mid 3% and strong earnings growth, slowing a bit into 2027.

  Fry points to GDP forecasts running in the low-to-mid 3% range and nominal GDP growth of 6-7% for Q4 as evidence of a healthy economy. Earnings growth has been very strong, and strong payrolls last week add to the picture. He sees some deceleration in growth as 2027 begins, but still calls the backdrop very good for stocks.

  “we're still running in the low mid threes, right, for broad GDP, and we've got a nominal GDP environment on the six to 7% range for q four. So big picture, this is a healthy economy.”at 43:44

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  Last week was the market low: the VIX term structure normalized, and markets rallying on bad news signals a bottom.

  The four-month versus one-month VIX term structure inverted last week and has now normalized, which Lee says usually marks a bottom. Stocks rallying despite a weekend of bad news (Nvidia and Texas action against Musk companies) is a contrarian positive. He adds that institutional investors he spoke with are almost universally cautious, which he reads as bullish because positioning is not crowded. He also flags CPI this week and falling oil as supportive of a broadening trade.

  “The VIX term structure, which is the four month VIX versus the one month, ... It's now normalized today. That's usually a sign of a bottom.”at 2:37

• Andrew Krei · Crescent Grove Advisors

  Volatility will persist for another week or two; the selloff was positioning, not a fundamental shakeout.

  Fry says volatility tends to cluster, so the upside moves come alongside the downside. Vol-targeting and systematic strategies have to reposition after a volatility spike, so he expects at least another week or two of follow-through. Prime broker notes suggest last week's move was driven more by positioning than by a real fundamental shakeout. He adds that for fundamental investors, the fundamentals do not look impaired.

  “these periods of volatility tend to cluster... we're expecting another week or two at least kind of the follow through of this initial kind of spike”at 42:33

US stock market outlook

• Kevin Gordon · Charles Schwab (Schwab Center for Financial Research)

  Markets are safer than people think; the selloff was concentrated in levered tech, and a broadening rally is likely.

  Gordon says last week's washout sets up a bottom, though he cautions against extrapolating single days because the cap-weighted index is distorted by mega-caps. Evidence: the equal-weight S&P 500 kept outperforming the cap-weighted index, about 60% of members stayed above their 200-day moving averages, and the stress was concentrated in levered tech bets that predated the election. The economy is relatively strong, as Friday's jobs report showed. He sees a real possibility of broadening by year-end, supported by that day's advance-decline breadth being the best of the year and heavy retail selling having pushed some indicators to washout levels.

  “definitely had a big washout last week, but I think that's setting us up for the bottom. So I think markets are a lot safer than people think.”at 3:09

• Andrew Krei · Crescent Grove Advisors

  Sector rotation away from crowded tech toward healthcare, financials, value and cyclicals should continue.

  Fry says the rotation theme of tech versus everything else will keep ruling the day, and he expects a relief bounce in tech because it overshot, with staples trading at a premium to tech. Over the longer run, he prefers healthcare, financials, value and cyclical segments over crowded tech trades.

  “broadly speaking, things like health care... things like financials, you know, value segments, more broadly kind of cyclical segments of the economy, we tend to like that more still relative to crowded tech trades.”at 45:00

Sports, betting & prediction markets

• Michael Ozanian · CNBC

  The expanded playoff nets college football far less than the headline $1.7B deal suggests.

  The new five-year deal with ESPN is worth $1.7 billion and grosses out to an additional $345 million a year for college football. But the expansion eliminates conference games for the big four conferences, so college football has to return money to ESPN and Fox. After those givebacks, the net gain is about $155 million a year for 11 extra games per year, starting in 2027. The headline overstates the economic benefit.

  “So it's really gonna net about 155,000,000 for 11 extra games for each of the next five years starting 2027.”at 36:23

• Michael Ozanian · CNBC

  College football payouts will grow despite bowl-prestige concerns, because ratings stay strong even outside top conferences.

  Ozanian disagrees with the concern that a restructured postseason would leave less money for lower-level bowl games. He points to strong TV ratings even for small bowl games and for college football outside the top four conferences, and concludes the overall pool of money will grow.

  “But I tend to disagree with that because the ratings, even for some of these small bowl games, have been very strong. So I think the overall pool of money is gonna grow”at 37:07

Banks

• Chris Heisey · Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank

  Bank stocks' strength signals coming deal activity and an intact net interest margin.

  Financials acted strongly on the day and had been improving over the past week. Heisey reads that as a signal that deal activity is about to pick up. He also says the net interest margin remains intact. Together these point to banks continuing to benefit from both advisory revenue and a stable lending spread, even in a mid-cycle economy.

  “Financials are acting really well today. ... That tells us that, you know, deal activity is around the corner. It tells us that the interest rate margin is still there.”at 4:53

Earnings & corporate profits

• Chris Heisey · Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank

  The cycle is mid-cycle, not late; earnings should grow double digits next year and profits are far from peaking.

  Heisey argues the economy is mid-cycle because the Fed has shifted from expected cuts toward possible hikes, which fits a mid-cycle phase. Breadth below the index also reset sharply, which he reads as a healthy broadening. Late-cycle would imply earnings growth heading toward zero, which he does not see. He points to margins that expanded despite higher oil and rates, nominal GDP of 5–7% this year, and productivity gains and AI adoption still early. He concedes the double-digit earnings forecast is not guaranteed but calls it a reasonable assumption.

  “late cycle implies that not only you're gonna slow down in your growth, you're actually heading closer and closer to zero in your actual earnings growth. We're gonna have double digit next year.”at 6:05

US–China AI & chip race

• Alex Kantrowitz · Big Technology

  If Huang's anti-export-control influence fades, tighter China controls could help US labs like OpenAI and Anthropic.

  Kantrowitz argues that Huang is the industry's biggest advocate against export controls to China, so losing him could mean tighter controls. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has pushed hard for those controls, and tighter controls would make it harder for Chinese competitors to access GPUs and compete with Anthropic and OpenAI. He thinks those labs could do better and rely more on alternative chips, since they already use Google TPUs and are making AMD deals. He says this would hurt Nvidia less than people assume because its production pipeline would not stop.

  “If the Chinese competition to these labs ends up struggling because it's harder for them to access GPUs, you could end up seeing the OpenAI's and the Anthropics of the world actually do better”at 23:20

US elections & politics

• Michael Ozanian · CNBC

  Protect College Sports Act has only about a 10% chance of passing, per his reporting.

  Ozanian says he reported on the bill and that almost everyone he called gave it about a 10% chance of passing, which he presents as his reporting rather than a prediction-market figure. Scott Wapner notes that headlines suggest it may be in doubt after the midterms.

  “almost to a person that I called, they're giving it a 10% chance of passing.”at 37:47

US rates & the Fed

• Andrew Krei · Crescent Grove Advisors

  Rates are coming down, and the Fed may be less hawkish next year than expected, supporting stocks.

  Fry cites rates coming down and a Fed trajectory that may not be as hawkish as people expect moving into next year. Combined with strong payrolls, healthy growth and seasonality, he sees a more buoyant backdrop for stocks.

  “you've got kind of rates coming down, fed trajectory that potentially is not gonna be as hawkish as people were anticipating moving into next year”at 43:56

International equities

• Andrew Krei · Crescent Grove Advisors

  Non-US markets in Europe and Japan are cheap and improving, and a weaker dollar adds a tailwind.

  Fry acknowledges Europe's problems, including France's issues. He points to rising ISM and manufacturing PMIs in Europe and Japan, rising export data, and defense spending and reindustrialization as growth drivers. He says the EFA trades at about 14-15 times forward earnings, which looks cheap. He adds that dollar weakness would be another tailwind for non-US markets.

  “So we wanna play that in markets that are pretty cheap. If you look at the EFA trading at, call it, 14, 15 times forward earnings, ... that looks like an interesting opportunity.”at 45:40