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Tani Fukui: latest market views
MetLife Investment Management
Summary
Tani Fukui is an economist and senior director of global economic and market strategy at MetLife Investment Management, where she has worked since 2015 on macro research and U.S. forecasts after earlier work analyzing trade policy at the U.S. International Trade Commission.
Chorus has 8 views from Tani Fukui across 2 episodes on Bloomberg Surveillance since October 23, 2026.
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Consumer spending should stay robust for the next year, supported by a resilient labor market despite inflation anger.
Fukui sees the labor market as a slow-moving series that has been strong. It is low-hire, low-fire but improving. Consumers are upset about inflation, with good justification, but they have jobs, and that keeps spending going. From here she expects a fairly robust consumer for the next year or so, which gives a solid basis for growth. The stock market cannot crash, but a robust consumer is a good foundation. She also notes consumers pulled back at the end of 2025 and early 2026, and that AI stepped in to drive growth in 2026 before consumers started pushing ahead again in recent quarters.
“Yes, low hire, low fire, but it's really improving. And I know consumers have been so mad about inflation with good justification, but they have jobs, and that helps continue the spending... For the next year or so, we're looking at a fairly robust consumer.”at 41:36
Bloomberg Surveillance: Stocks Rise as Inflation Data Ease Fed-Hike Worry ·
US real GDP growth should hold around 2.4% in 2027, near the consensus of about 2.5%.
When asked about the 2.5% real GDP growth figure for next year cited earlier in the show, Fukui says her own 2027 forecast is 2.4%, essentially the same. Her reasoning is that consumers were soft in late 2025 and early 2026, but AI spending stepped in and drove a lot of the 2026 growth. In the most recent quarters, consumers have been pushing ahead again, and she expects that to continue, which would mean solid growth.
“We're at 2.4. So basically the same as that, as a two and a half.”at 42:23
Bloomberg Surveillance: Stocks Rise as Inflation Data Ease Fed-Hike Worry ·
Year-on-year inflation will fall sharply by year end, mainly from base effects, even with Brent near $90.
Fukui says her year-on-year inflation forecast shows inflation going down a lot. She makes this call even with Brent at roughly $90 a barrel through year end, which is the oil assumption her team uses. Most of the decline comes from base effects, meaning the comparison with last year's higher price levels, rather than from falling energy prices.
“When we look at our year on year inflation forecast, it's gonna go down a lot... That's even if, you know, we've got something like $90 a barrel, through... We use Brent, through year end.”at 43:09
Bloomberg Surveillance: Stocks Rise as Inflation Data Ease Fed-Hike Worry ·
Fed can't set different rates by income; it must focus on the macro economy.
Fukui argues the Fed's hands are tied because it lacks tools to redistribute wealth or set different interest rates for households at different income levels. It has to look at the macro economy, so it cannot focus on struggling households or AI-driven segments alone. Fed staff do analyse data on the distribution of earnings and spending.
“the Fed has its hands tied because it doesn't have the tools to redistribute wealth or have different interest rates for different levels of household income.”at 3:50
Current roughly 5% 10-year yield level makes sense given economic fundamentals.
The 10-year yield was near 5% (4.98% at the time) after a sell-off in which investors were afraid to step in front of rising yields. Fukui says the current level is in a better ballpark than a couple of weeks earlier and makes much more sense given the economy's fundamentals.
“Now I think this level approximately makes a lot more sense given the fundamentals of the economic economy.”at 5:33
Tariffs are a small share of the economy; uncertainty and modest CPI effects matter more.
From prior federal work analysing tariffs, Fukui says tariffs are always a relatively small share of the total economy, around 2%. They are very big in certain sectors and regions, but overall not as much of a big deal. The uncertainty they create weighs more on businesses, and they show up in CPI only modestly, which is why the effect was not as large as some expected.
“it's always a relatively small share of the total economy... Very big in certain sectors and in certain parts of the country, but overall, not as much of a big deal. The uncertainty is what it was get... Gets a lot of the, businesses.”at 7:18
Higher oil prices are a net growth enhancer for the US, though painful for consumers.
Higher oil prices hurt consumers, but the US has become a net exporter of oil, so higher prices boost domestic GDP. Fukui concedes this is a GDP effect, not one felt by households, and notes skepticism about the claim.
“I know this is terrible for consumers, but oil, higher oil prices are a net growth enhancer for The US right now.”at 8:11
A stock or retirement-account decline would halt consumer spending via the wealth effect.
Net wealth across the board has improved and growth has improved since last year, even for the 20th percentile and up, which is part of why consumers are doing well. A legitimate correction or bear market would be a problem. If 401(k)s and other investments fall, people will stop spending, which is a big problem for many households.
“If we finally get a legitimate correction or dare I say a bear market, what does that do to the American economy? It's a problem. ... If your retirement is going down, big problem for a lot of people, they'll stop spending.”at 9:53
Shows
- Bloomberg Surveillance · 2 episodes
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