Stocks Rise as Inflation Data Ease Fed-Hike Worry

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 137 speakers in other episodes, 124 bullish and 95 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  NVIDIA's China scrutiny overdone; he is buying at current levels with $225 fair value.

  Ives disagrees with commentators calling the China export episode a crisis. He cites Jensen Huang's value to the story (about $1 trillion) and argues NVIDIA is the one chip fueling the AI revolution, so hyperscalers spending $3-4 trillion cannot avoid it. He says the chips leaking via Singapore are second- and third-tier, not the Blackwell/Rubin gold standard, so the loophole matters less to the stock. He calls $225 fair value (transcript reads '$2.25'), says Wall Street institutions understand the nuance, and says the stock is not 'doomsday'. He adds that if NVIDIA names a top global CEO (Cook, Arora or Curry), the stock could be $250-300. The fair value figure is a transcription reading and should be checked.

  “Many that are, like, yelling fire in a crowd theater yesterday, like, I disagree... $2.25 is the fair value for NVIDIA. Like, we are buyers of NVIDIA at this level.”at 19:55

Anthropic

Across the shows: 114 speakers in other episodes, 164 bullish and 93 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  A successful Anthropic IPO would lift broader tech stocks after the recent selloff.

  Ives says the roadshow has gone extremely well, with investors walked through the model step by step by both analysts and buy-side. He sees Anthropic as a key piece of the AI revolution. He argues that a successful IPO, combined with strong NVIDIA earnings, would help tech stocks recover from last week's selloff, which he calls overdone. He ties this to the Jensen Huang episode being a short-term hit. Tom Keene noted the deal was about six times oversubscribed.

  “When it comes to foundationally with the AI revolution, they are gonna be a key piece. The IPO going off successfully will also be very positive for broader tech market.”at 26:34

Advanced Micro Devices

Across the shows: 20 speakers in other episodes, 22 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  AMD is a natural beneficiary if China is cut off from NVIDIA chips.

  If US export controls keep NVIDIA's chips out of China, Chinese buyers and domestic competitors gain share. Ives says AMD and Lisa Su are a natural beneficiary given how AMD is positioned, and notes AMD has talked about getting a foot in the China market. He sees this as one way investors will read the China news, alongside Broadcom and Alphabet on the chip side.

  “AMD and Lisa [Su], they are a natural benefit the way they're positioned.”at 28:25

Apple

Across the shows: 51 speakers in other episodes, 65 bullish and 42 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Apple is a bullish AI consumer-device play at $400-450, with its services business undervalued.

  Ives argues Apple's AI monetization is underpriced: about 20% of the world will reach AI through an Apple device as it moves toward consumer AI and AI-enabled hardware. He calls the stock cheap relative to the value of its services business, even though it looks expensive on headline multiples. He describes it as a safety stock in a storm, with the innovation cycle just starting. He ties this to a gross-profit-focused valuation lens. The price range is transcribed as '4 to $450'; reading it as $400 to $450 is an inference from context.

  “They're gonna access AI through an Apple device.”at 29:04

US consumer

• Ian Wyatt · Huntington Commercial Bank

  Consumer spending remains strong, as last year's tax bill offset the gasoline price rise.

  Wyatt says last year's tax bill helped boost incomes and offset the gasoline price increase, so consumers kept spending. He points to retail sales, which have trended upward in year-over-year growth. Together with accelerating job gains, he sees momentum in the economy. This is why Huntington is modeling a slowdown in nominal GDP only over a longer window rather than near term.

  “The tax bill last year really helped boost and offset the gas price hike, so consumers were really spending. You're still seeing remarkably strong spending.”at 32:43

• Tani Fukui · MetLife Investment Management

  Consumer spending should stay robust for the next year, supported by a resilient labor market despite inflation anger.

  Fukui sees the labor market as a slow-moving series that has been strong. It is low-hire, low-fire but improving. Consumers are upset about inflation, with good justification, but they have jobs, and that keeps spending going. From here she expects a fairly robust consumer for the next year or so, which gives a solid basis for growth. The stock market cannot crash, but a robust consumer is a good foundation. She also notes consumers pulled back at the end of 2025 and early 2026, and that AI stepped in to drive growth in 2026 before consumers started pushing ahead again in recent quarters.

  “Yes, low hire, low fire, but it's really improving. And I know consumers have been so mad about inflation with good justification, but they have jobs, and that helps continue the spending... For the next year or so, we're looking at a fairly robust consumer.”at 41:36

US jobs & labor market

• Ian Wyatt · Huntington Commercial Bank

  Job growth has accelerated sharply since March, with 600,000-plus jobs added in seven months.

  Wyatt contrasts the most recent seven months, which saw more than 600,000 jobs added, with the seven months before, which added about 100,000. He cites this as evidence of real momentum in the economy. That momentum underpins his view that consumers are still spending strongly despite higher gasoline prices.

  “Job growth's really been accelerating or just at a different pace since March... we've had 600,000 plus jobs added in the past seven months... seven months prior, 100,000.”at 32:55

• Ian Wyatt · Huntington Commercial Bank

  Wage gains are a blue-collar story, led by utilities, construction and manufacturing.

  Wyatt pulls the jobs report and ranks sectors by year-over-year average weekly earnings growth. Utilities, construction, manufacturing and oil and gas lead. White-collar and retail workers are seeing wage growth come in below those sectors, which he says shows a split in the economy that companies also describe to him.

  “Partly, it's really a white collar, blue collar story right now... Top sector, utilities, construction, manufacturing... Those are the top four sectors for wage growth right now.”at 35:22

US inflation

• Ian Wyatt · Huntington Commercial Bank

  The wide PPI–CPI gap means companies will eventually pass cost pressures on to consumers.

  Wyatt points to an unusually large gap between producer prices, which he says are tracking close to 6%, and consumer prices. PPI usually leads CPI, so companies face cost pressure they will eventually pass on. He notes that food companies are struggling to pass on margins with flat sales, while many other sectors are maintaining theirs. The horizon is near-term based on his timing comment ('eventually'), which is not explicit.

  “If you look at the PPI versus the CPI right now, it's an unusually large split we have... oftentimes PPI leads CPI as well, so companies eventually have to pass this on.”at 33:42

• Tani Fukui · MetLife Investment Management

  Year-on-year inflation will fall sharply by year end, mainly from base effects, even with Brent near $90.

  Fukui says her year-on-year inflation forecast shows inflation going down a lot. She makes this call even with Brent at roughly $90 a barrel through year end, which is the oil assumption her team uses. Most of the decline comes from base effects, meaning the comparison with last year's higher price levels, rather than from falling energy prices.

  “When we look at our year on year inflation forecast, it's gonna go down a lot... That's even if, you know, we've got something like $90 a barrel, through... We use Brent, through year end.”at 43:09

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Liz Ann Sonders · Charles Schwab

  Inverse and leveraged products are drawing inexperienced young traders, a concern.

  Sonders worries about the vehicles aimed at investors who want big risk. Inverse and leveraged products come with a lot of marketing bells and whistles. In her view, many younger traders are buying them without the knowledge needed to handle the risk. She frames this as a concern about retail speculation rather than a call on any specific market.

  “...some of these inverse leveraged products... there's a lot of bells and whistles associated with the marketing of them and a lot of younger traders, I won't even say investors, that are getting involved without the necessary knowledge.”at 13:56

US–China AI & chip race

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.

  Closing NVIDIA chip loopholes into China matters because Huawei trails NVIDIA by two to three years.

  Ives expects the export-control push to shut down loopholes that move NVIDIA chips into China, including the Singapore route, which he calls a known loophole investors already understand. He argues NVIDIA chips are two to three years ahead of Huawei, so Alibaba, JD, Tencent and others want them. Chinese domestic competition will strengthen if those chips are kept out, and Ives says the US has been ahead in tech for the first time in about thirty years, partly because of Jensen Huang. He frames the fear as China gaining the technology and narrowing the gap in the Middle East, Australia and across Asia, which is why Washington is focused on it.

  “The reality is that NVIDIA chips are two to three years ahead of Huawei. So if you're Alibaba, JD, Tencent, name it, want these chips because they're that far ahead of where Huawei is.”at 18:24

Oil & fuels

• Ian Wyatt · Huntington Commercial Bank

  Diesel prices are inflated relative to crude because refining margins are high, hurting builders.

  When crude was near $100, diesel and gasoline prices ran well above what crude justified because refining margins (crack spreads) were very high. Wyatt expects those spreads to come in, which would bring fuel prices down even if crude stays flat. Meanwhile, builders across the country report diesel surcharges on every bill, and those surcharges are hitting construction margins and budgets. He treats this as a real cost pressure.

  “Part of it was when we were at $100 barrel oil, gasoline and diesel prices were a lot higher than they should have been relative to that oil price, because the refining margins were way up.”at 34:26

AI & jobs

• Ian Wyatt · Huntington Commercial Bank

  AI is part of the weaker white-collar wage story, though overstaffing and bank caution matter too.

  Asked whether AI explains weaker white-collar wage growth, Wyatt says it is part of the story. His own team's productivity has risen since they started using an AI tool to break down earnings. He notes that earlier trends predate AI: software firms reviewing whether they overstaffed, and banks and insurers sitting on unrealized losses from rising rates and hesitating to hire. So AI is one of several factors.

  “I would say that's part of the story... It certainly has boosted my productivity and my team's productivity. But some of it started before then.”at 36:13

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Ian Wyatt · Huntington Commercial Bank

  Political resistance to data centers is significant, and projects are shifting to regional sites like Ohio and Indiana.

  Wyatt says political resistance to data centers has been significant across the board. His team tracked the bills and found many passed in places that are not major data center construction hubs, since the buildout is regional. Texas leads current construction, with Virginia next and much of the rest in the Midwest, on the old Huntington footprint in Ohio and Indiana. He ties this to cheap gas: Western Pennsylvania has some of the cheapest natural gas in the country because pipeline capacity cannot carry Appalachian gas out, so companies are leaning into that region. He also cites a SoftBank data center in rural Ohio that could become one of the largest in the US at 10 gigawatts.

  “Certainly, the political resistance has been significant all across the board. And if you look at data centers where we saw a lot of the bills passed, my team went through it...”at 38:12

US growth & recession risk

• Tani Fukui · MetLife Investment Management

  US real GDP growth should hold around 2.4% in 2027, near the consensus of about 2.5%.

  When asked about the 2.5% real GDP growth figure for next year cited earlier in the show, Fukui says her own 2027 forecast is 2.4%, essentially the same. Her reasoning is that consumers were soft in late 2025 and early 2026, but AI spending stepped in and drove a lot of the 2026 growth. In the most recent quarters, consumers have been pushing ahead again, and she expects that to continue, which would mean solid growth.

  “We're at 2.4. So basically the same as that, as a two and a half.”at 42:23