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Kevin Hassett: latest market views
White House National Economic Council
Summary
Kevin Hassett is an economist who has been Director of the National Economic Council since January 2025, after chairing the Council of Economic Advisers in Trump's first term (2017-2019) and working at the American Enterprise Institute, and he co-authored 'Dow 36,000'.
Chorus has 17 views from Kevin Hassett across 3 episodes on Bloomberg Talks and Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) since October 19, 2026.
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The job market is firing on all cylinders, with low claims, rising quits and big upward revisions.
Hassett calls it one of the better jobs weeks he has seen. Initial jobless claims fell to about the lowest level since World War II, and job openings were high. The quit rate rose, which he reads as workers confident they can find better jobs. The latest jobs report beat expectations by more than double, and upward revisions to the prior two months were very large. He concludes the labor market is strong on every measure.
“And now we have a jobs report that was way more than double expectation, and the upward revisions were ginormous for the last couple of months. And so what we've got is a job market that's hitting it all cylinders.”at 2:28
Bloomberg Talks: White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks Inflation, Fed ·
Strong US growth is supply-driven and productivity-led, so it is not necessarily inflationary.
Hassett argues, citing Kevin Warsh's framing, that supply-side growth is not necessarily inflationary while demand-side growth is. He credits expensing for capital goods for boosting supply, pointing to 120,000 people building new factories in the jobs report as a 'big positive supply shock.' He adds that productivity was 'through the roof' that week, so the high growth is supply and productivity driven and should not stoke inflation.
“if you have supply side growth, then it's not necessarily inflationary. And if you have demand side growth, then, of course, it is.”at 2:53
Bloomberg Talks: White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks Inflation, Fed ·
Warsh will respond more to inflation data than to strong growth, so growth alone should not force tightening.
Hassett says the White House believes Warsh had it right that supply-driven growth is not inflationary. He says Warsh has publicly stated he will watch inflation data 'like a hawk' and respond more to that than to growth. Given the strong supply-driven growth and productivity, Hassett implies the Fed should not tighten because of growth. He declines to say whether he discussed rate cuts with Trump.
“he's gonna watch the inflation data and watch it like a hawk and respond more to that than to growth when we're seeing such high growth that's potentially supply shock driven and productivity driven.”at 3:19
Bloomberg Talks: White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks Inflation, Fed ·
The Iran situation is driving energy prices, which is a real spike feeding into headline inflation.
Hassett attributes the top-line inflation numbers to energy prices that are related to the situation in Iran, which the president says he has no regrets about. He calls the energy price spike 'real' and says it infects inflation readings up and down, for example through airfares. He presents this as the main driver of headline inflation, separate from the core trend, which he says is improving.
“the top line inflation numbers are, of course, being driven by energy prices, which are related to the situation in Iran that the president says he has no regrets about.”at 6:12
Bloomberg Talks: White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks Inflation, Fed ·
Inflation is decelerating, with core near the Fed's target; the headline spike is energy-driven.
Hassett argues inflation is coming down and the White House's policies are working. He cites the last CPI report, saying core inflation was back around the Fed's target for the previous three months. He attributes the top-line figure to energy prices tied to the Iran situation, and says supply-side policies put downward pressure on inflation, with food prices (eggs down, beef down four of the last five months) also falling. He concedes inflation is coming down from a high level, after a Biden-era surge that he blames on post-COVID helicopter money, so the frustration people feel is real but progress is being made.
“if you look at what happened prior to the last CPI, then core inflation was back to around the Fed's target for the previous three months.”at 6:27
Bloomberg Talks: White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks Inflation, Fed ·
Agriculture & food commodities
Food prices are falling, with egg prices way down and beef down four of the last five months.
Hassett says the administration has done an enormous amount to lower food prices. He points to egg prices being way down, a reversal of what reporters used to ask about, and beef prices falling in four of the last five months. He offers these as evidence that the policies are easing the inflation burden, though he concedes the cumulative price level is still high.
“Food prices, we've done an enormous amount to lower food prices... Beef prices are down four out of the last five months.”at 7:48
Bloomberg Talks: White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks Inflation, Fed ·
White House will deliver an evidence-based report on Lisa Cook to Trump through a fair process.
Hassett says the White House counsel's team has set up an orderly, fair process and is negotiating with Governor Cook to schedule a meeting where the evidence can be laid out. The resulting report goes to the president for a decision, and nothing in the schedule is changing. He says he would not have taken part unless he had confidence that he could vote with his conscience and dissent if he disagreed with the other commissioners.
“We're gonna put the evidence on the table, and then we're gonna have an evidence based report that we present to the president”at 9:16
Bloomberg Talks: White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks Inflation, Fed ·
Strong Q3 GDP from surging capital spending means growth can rise without inflation, since new supply is coming online.
He calls the strong third-quarter GDP number a blockbuster, driven by capital spending that is rising sharply. His argument is that when a large increase in productive capacity comes online, the economy can grow faster without generating Phillips-curve inflation. He treats the investment boom as a supply-side expansion that eases inflation pressure. His reasoning is conceptual and gives no specific sector numbers.
“the blockbuster GDP number that you mentioned with capital spending absolutely through the roof, when you get a big increase in supply, you could have lots of growth without creating Phillips curve inflationary”at 2:42
Bloomberg Talks: NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks US Economy ·
Real consumption is up a trillion dollars since Trump took office, about $5,000 per family; consumers are not overstretched.
He argues that inflation-adjusted consumption is the best measure of household wellbeing, and it is up about $1 trillion since Trump took office, roughly $5,000 per family. He concedes some pockets of higher prices, such as gasoline, while beef prices are falling. He says consumption depends on confidence and income, and cites initial jobless claims at their lowest level ever. He disputes the claim that wages are falling behind inflation and says bank data show households are not running runaway debt. He expects Census data to show real incomes up about $2,500 per family by the end of the year.
“so real consumption since president Trump took office. It's a trillion dollars higher. That's $5,000 per family.”at 3:38
Bloomberg Talks: NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks US Economy ·
September's inflation jump is a blip driven by energy prices; October should return to about 2%.
He argues the September PCE jump of 0.5% was a one-off, driven by energy prices, not a new trend. Before September, three months in a row had run at a pace that would have reached the Fed's target. He cites the Cleveland Fed nowcast for October, which shows October looking like the prior months. If October comes in at that forecast, he says the June, July, August and October readings will all run at about 2%, and September will be viewed as a blip. He concedes that a high October print would change the picture and that the Fed would then appropriately act. He says the new data is the key test, not a view he holds regardless of outcome.
“if the October number comes in at the Cleveland Fed's forecast, then we'll have, August and, July and June and October all running with inflation at about 2%.”at 4:36
Bloomberg Talks: NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks US Economy ·
Gulf bypass pipelines, US refinery expansion and European reserve releases will blunt Hormuz risk; crude is plentiful, refined products tight.
He argues that the energy price pressure from the Iran conflict will ease. Gulf countries are building backup pipelines that route around the Strait of Hormuz, so Iranian disruption will matter less over time. US refineries are working to add capacity, and the US has plenty of crude but not enough refined product. He says a negotiated release of European strategic reserves of refined products is helping to limit the disruption. He says he cannot forecast the war, but argues the supply response is reducing the economic impact.
“The Gulf countries are building backup pipelines to go around so that the Iranians continue to cause trouble that it'll matter less and less. US refineries are trying to increase capacity. We have plenty of crude, not enough refined product.”at 7:30
Bloomberg Talks: NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks US Economy ·
Thirty-year TIPS shows markets expect long-term inflation near 2.1%; Fed action cuts inflation slowly, not before midterms.
He argues that a fall in inflation before the midterms caused by Fed action would not match how monetary policy works. He says the Fed's response is a very slow-moving process. He points to the 30-year inflation-protected Treasury, which implies the Fed will bring long-term inflation to about 2.1%. He says that anchored long-run expectations are what Fed governors need to reassure markets. He also says the Fed should wait for the October CPI and PCE data, and would act if the September trajectory proves to be new.
“If you look at the thirty year, tip, the inflation protected treasury, it's expecting the Fed to... The Fed to get long term inflation at around 2.1%.”at 12:17
Bloomberg Talks: NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks US Economy ·
Underlying inflation is decelerating; the latest CPI uptick looks like a possible blip, not a trend.
Hassett concedes the top-line 12-month CPI rose from 3.5% to 3.6% and core from 2.5% to 2.6%, but calls the core move a snoozer. He argues the trend is still benign: egg prices fell for a fourth straight month, the policy work is showing in the data, and the first-half deceleration came from a positive supply shock. He says the one-tenth uptick is hardly enough to overpower the good news, though he admits a month of data is needed to confirm whether the softening is a break or a blip.
“the stuff that we've been working so hard on, you're really starting to see in the data.”at 16:49
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Rare Disease Progress, Tech Charity, & the Elizabeth Holmes Doc 10/19/26 ·
Real wages are rising about $2,000 a year, with wage gains accelerating while price increases slow.
Using month-to-month census data from a private estimate, Hassett says real wages are growing at about a $2,000 annual clip, with the average real wage at $88,000, up $2,000 since Trump took office after adjusting for inflation. He argues price increases are decelerating while wage increases are accelerating because of capital spending, and that the economy is raising wages. He acknowledges wages briefly fell below inflation in one recent month and calls it a blip.
“The price increases are decelerating, and the wage increases are accelerating because of all the capital spending”at 19:02
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Rare Disease Progress, Tech Charity, & the Elizabeth Holmes Doc 10/19/26 ·
US economy is very strong and near 4% GDP growth; he is very bullish on the outlook.
Hassett argues the economy is in a boom. He cites GDP growth almost at 4%, discretionary travel and spending on hotels, flights and cars as evidence people feel good and have money to spend, rising real wages, and wage gains accelerating because of capital spending. He concludes 'on net, it's a very, very strong economy' and that he is still very bullish on the outlook despite the inflation readings.
“I think we're very bullish still on the outlook for the economy.”at 19:10
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Rare Disease Progress, Tech Charity, & the Elizabeth Holmes Doc 10/19/26 ·
Higher mortgage rates are offset by rising incomes, and housing numbers improved over the summer.
Hassett acknowledges mortgage rates are up with the 10-year near 5.08%, but argues incomes are rising too and that housing numbers looked much better over the summer than in the fall. He presents this as one of the mixed-but-positive pieces of an overall strong economy, so the rate rise is not a major concern to him.
“mortgage rates are up, incomes are up too and the housing numbers started to look a lot better over the summer than they did in the fall.”at 21:30
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Rare Disease Progress, Tech Charity, & the Elizabeth Holmes Doc 10/19/26 ·
Consumers are spending freely, so partisan sentiment surveys overstate the gloom; actual behavior shows a boom.
Hassett says sentiment surveys are highly partisan, with Democrats in surveys like Michigan's saying the economy is in a great depression while Republicans say things are fine, so the surveys have lost value. He argues the real measure is behavior: if people were as negative as polls suggest they would not be taking trips to nice hotels, flying, or buying cars. Spending on travel and autos shows people are acting like the economy is booming.
“sentiment, like true sentiment, is best measured by what you see that people are doing. And what people are doing is they're acting like we're in a boom.”at 24:24
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Rare Disease Progress, Tech Charity, & the Elizabeth Holmes Doc 10/19/26 ·
Shows
- Bloomberg Talks · 2 episodes
- Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) · 1 episode
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