The AI Theme Isn’t Dead, Apple and Palantir Report, Alphabet’s Very Bad Day, HALO Is Back

Apple

Across the shows: 37 speakers in other episodes, 34 bullish and 29 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBearish

  Apple's services growth is slowing and gross margins and estimates are falling on memory costs.

  Michael says two things are weighing on Apple after the report. Services revenue growth is slowing, though the absolute number is huge. Gross margin is declining and estimates are coming down. On the call, Apple spent a lot of time on memory demand and how it manages rising memory prices, which stay elevated. Consumers have absorbed higher prices so far, but he asks how much more Apple can push them. He notes the stock is down only about 2% after a strong run, which he calls an adult reaction.

  “services revenue growth is slowing down... Gross margin coming down and their estimates coming down.”at 13:05

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Apple's memory cost headwind eases as comps lap; buyers are betting on sustained momentum under Ternus.

  Josh calls Apple's results good, not great, and says the muted stock reaction was adult. He thinks buyers are betting that Apple keeps its recent momentum and product cadence under John Ternus, and that nothing reported would change that. On memory, he argues that by Q4, Q1 and the first half of next year Apple will be lapping the very high memory costs, so comparisons get less severe. He flags a real risk: at what point higher prices stop Apple selling as many units. He also questions the $900-higher touchscreen MacBook pricing, though iPhones had a record quarter.

  “they're already lapping these obscenely high costs for memory... the comps are not quite as severe in terms of their cost.”at 13:38

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Apple works as a hedge against the AI chip trade and has low capex exposure.

  In 2026 Apple has risen on 65% of days when the Philly Semiconductor Index fell 2% or more, which he presents as evidence it is acting as an anti-AI large-cap tech trade. Its capex barely moves the chart: over the last four quarters Apple's capex rose about $10B versus $215B at Amazon, so it avoids the AI spending drag.

  “this year, 65% of the time, when the [SOX] is down two percent or more, Apple is higher... Apple is like the anti AI large cap tech trade.”at 47:37

Alphabet

Across the shows: 55 speakers in other episodes, 43 bullish and 34 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBearish

  AI search results monetize worse than traditional search, so Google's search growth is decelerating by design.

  Josh says the miss reflects a lower monetization rate on AI Mode and AI results than on traditional search. When users want the answer, not links to click, Google makes less money, and Google is doing this on purpose. He points to search growth decelerating from 19% to 15% to 12%. He says that if the next search print is single digits, the decline is not over. He notes Google still dominates search and will likely stay dominant for years, but the growth trend matters more than the first nine months.

  “The monetization rate on AI results or AI mode versus traditional search is lower... 19 to 15 to 12.”at 28:49

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBearish

  AI is a threat to Google's search business; he would avoid the stock despite the drawdown.

  Michael says Search and YouTube both missed in the quarter. Google's search growth is strong year to date, but he thinks AI is already a threat to Google's search business. He cites an interview on Alex Kantrowitz's Substack where an OpenAI person said OpenAI is now doing about 20% of Google's search volume. He says that if there is a chink in the armor, he does not want to own the stock, even at a lower price after a 30% drawdown. He also links YouTube's miss to short-form competition from Reels and TikTok.

  “Forget about becomes. AI is a threat to Google... if there is a chink in the armor, I do not wanna own that stock.”at 29:53

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Alphabet's March-low support near $270 offers a short-term bounce with a tight stop.

  Josh likes the $270 area as a shorter-term bounce spot. The stock traded from about $270 in March and then rallied decisively to about $400 by May, so he treats that level as a strong support area. He would wait one more quiet day in the 270s and then use $270 as a stop, risking seven points to make 50. He says he wants to see whether the stock holds its 52-week low.

  “I like this [$270] area for a shorter term. Where it's going to bounce.”at 34:33

Palantir Technologies

Across the shows: 10 speakers in other episodes, 10 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Palantir has outgrown the government-contractor label; its Rule of 40 is accelerating.

  Michael says Palantir's Rule of 40 score, combining revenue growth and operating margin, keeps accelerating and is remarkable. A year or so ago the question was whether Palantir was just a government contractor. Charts show commercial revenue growing much faster than government, and commercial now larger than government in the quarter. He calls the growth a holy-shit-level acceleration.

  “Their rule of 40 keeps accelerating... it's just like a government contractor... Not anymore.”at 16:05

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Palantir is no longer just a government contractor; commercial growth is outpacing government work.

  Josh cites commercial revenue of $984M in the quarter versus $397M a year earlier, almost a tripling. Commercial revenue is now larger than government contracting revenue of $953M, and commercial revenue growth is 148% year over year. He says few companies are growing like this, and anyone who wrote Palantir off as a tech defense contractor is wrong. He acknowledges that growth may not be sustained forever, but argues it is happening now.

  “And the commercial business is now larger than the government contracting business, which is $953,000,000”at 17:17

Anthropic

Across the shows: 84 speakers in other episodes, 103 bullish and 65 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Anthropic holds more cash than most Mag-7 companies, rebutting claims it can't raise money.

  He presents a chart showing Anthropic's balance sheet cash exceeds every Magnificent Seven company except Alphabet. He uses this to rebut critics who say Anthropic can't raise money, and notes that critics ignore the cash position while focusing on $800B-plus of commitments.

  “actually Anthropic has more cash on its balance sheet than any of the Mag-7s other than Alphabet”at 56:25

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Anthropic is managing its cash better than expected despite large compute commitments.

  Cash burn critics say Anthropic lost $80B, but he disputes that and says the company has managed its cash much better than he expected. He says it has heavy compute commitments, which everyone knows, and expects more fundraising, but he finds the cash management impressive.

  “No. They didn't. That's impressive. ... They're doing a lot better job managing the cash than I would have thought.”at 56:56

Toast

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  Toast is a great long-term opportunity; market cap too small for its growing vertical-software business.

  Josh says Toast's GAAP EPS is almost doubling year over year and its ARR is about a $2.5B quarterly run rate, roughly $10B annualized. He says that if Toast can reach the $10B ARR goal over the long term and keep progressing at this rate, the market cap is too small for the size of the business. He notes the stock is unloved because it is vertical SaaS, yet Toast owns the restaurant vertical, now serves 189,000 locations, and cross-sells horizontal services after winning the payments customer. He concedes free cash flow is not a steady stair-step and the stock was crushed to the low twenties two quarters ago. He says he remains long.

  “I remain long and I still think this is a great long term opportunity.”at 7:27

Uber Technologies

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBearish

  Uber's robotaxi partnership announcements aren't visible on streets; the stock sells off after rallies.

  Josh says Uber has fallen after six of its last seven earnings reports, and even good reports bring a one-day pop that gets sold within days. He calls Uber narratively challenged. Uber issues many press releases about autonomous taxi partnerships, but people do not see those vehicles on the streets, while Waymo is moving full speed ahead. He adds that Uber's communications strategy, with CEO interviews after earnings, is not working and that the CEO should talk more about robots and autonomous taxis.

  “They are putting out a ton of press releases about partnerships with autonomous taxi companies, but people do not see them on the streets.”at 20:25

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 35 speakers in other episodes, 43 bullish and 8 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth ManagementBullish

  AWS can reach a trillion-dollar run rate, so the AI build-out is worth it and hard to be bearish.

  He cites Andy Jassy's claim that AWS, at a $184B annual run rate growing 39%, could grow about 40% a year for two more years and become a trillion-dollar-plus business. He argues the build-out is moving fast and is expensive but worthwhile, and that if AWS gets there, the S&P should be much higher.

  “If AWS is getting to a trillion dollar run rate, what do you think the S and P is gonna be? A lot higher or a lot lower?”at 42:49

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Data centers are a niche issue for voters; affordability dominates, despite Texas battleground talk.

  Josh says many commentators claim data centers are on the ballot. He argues that very few voters will go to the polls specifically to vote on data centers. He acknowledges data centers are a battleground issue in Texas, but in real life voters care about affordability, and voting on other issues matters more across much of the country.

  “you could count the number of people that put on their shoes and went to the polls to vote specifically on data centers on maybe two hands.”at 8:17

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  AI capex is the only story that matters for equities; midterms won't change it.

  Josh reads a Barclays Equity Tactical Strategy note. It says the core equity drivers are AI revenue versus AI financing, which are not conditional on whether Congress flips, and that the midterm outcome is unlikely to have a profound effect on the AI capex story. Josh endorses this view and says the AI capex story is the only story that matters to him, so the midterms are not a major driver for markets.

  “And if you watch the show, you know he thinks that's really the only story that matters and so do I.”at 9:20

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Neocloud stocks are fragile and speculative; they are worth zero if the AI bubble view is right.

  He describes the Roundhill Neo Cloud ETF as a fragile basket. It holds Treasuries used notionally for swaps on private neoclouds, swaps on CoreWeave and Nebius, and small-cap and penny stocks. If the AI bubble camp is right, he says these holdings should fundamentally be zero, and in a bear market some would go bankrupt. He says he doesn't own them and wouldn't touch them.

  “These should fundamentally be zero if the AI bubble camp ends up being right, and they could be.”at 1:00:51

US stock market outlook

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Stock-level drawdowns are normal and breadth is strong; equal-weight beating mega-caps by most since 2009.

  Michael says two-thirds of index stocks have had a 20% intra-year drawdown, which is roughly the historical average and on trend. At the sector level, 93% of tech stocks had a 20% drawdown in 2026, but this is not unusual, and the pain is concentrated in names people own. Breadth is strong: a 21-day average of daily advancers in the S&P 500 hit its highest reading of 2026, and RSP relative to SPY has ripped. The equal-weight S&P 500 outpaced the top 20 mega-caps by the widest margin since 2009. Non-AI names are ripping while the AI trade gets volatile.

  “The S and P 500 equal weight index outpaced the S and P top 20, so the mega mega caps, by the widest margin since 2009.”at 25:59

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  The Nasdaq's bearish outside reversal month is not a major sell signal historically.

  Michael says the Nasdaq printed a bearish outside month, making a new all-time high and then closing below the prior month's low. He cites research that looked at 10 such instances after a new all-time high. The index never closed lower seven months out in those cases, so he does not think this is the end of the world, though it is not a bullish sign either.

  “The index never closed lower seven months out... So not exactly end of the world.”at 27:33

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Stock market is very bullish: estimates rising, multiples falling, and the wall of worry supports the bull market.

  Next-twelve-month earnings estimates keep rising steadily while multiples are compressing, and growth rates are strong. Investors remain widely worried, which he sees as healthy for the sustainability of the bull market.

  “I love what's happening in the stock market. I think this is so bullish.”at 38:41

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Memory chip stock selloff is driven by leverage and positioning, not fundamentals.

  He thinks the memory stock drop reflects too much margin trading, leveraged and double ETFs, and options, which pushed prices beyond the fundamentals. He thinks the sell-off reflects an unwinding of crowded positions, not a fundamental change in the business.

  “I really think it's positioning... a lot of the narrative that we're seeing is price driven, not fundamentally driven. And it was a lot of leverage, a lot of piling in.”at 44:41

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Google searches for AI bubble aren't a contrarian signal; bubble talk has persisted for years.

  Bubble warnings have been circulating since AI stocks first hit a trillion-dollar market cap, so a spike in 'AI bubble' searches tells you little about timing. Since people have been calling it a bubble the whole time, the sentiment reading is not contrarian.

  “No, it's not a contrarian signal because people have been saying bubble the whole time. How do you time that?”at 48:44

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Heavy put buying on AI stocks is a healthy sign, not a top-of-bubble signal.

  WSJ reported investors racing to buy insurance on AI bets, with about 800,000 CoreWeave put contracts traded over two weeks. Josh argues that in a bull market, the bull market takes out its own trash, and that this kind of hedging isn't typical of an active bubble. He would prefer to see calls, but puts are normal in this market.

  “Again, you don't typically see things like this in an active bubble.”at 53:19

US rates & the Fed

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Tight rates are part of the AI financing story, showing up in neocloud funding.

  He agrees with Warsh that rates work through the cracks. A neocloud CEO said certain debt funding has closed, which took neocloud stocks down with it. He sees the financing-cost channel as part of the story and the most unexpected part compared with January, when few worried about it.

  “I would just say it's part of the story. And maybe it's the most unexpected part if you were to rewind back to January.”at 50:56

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Higher cost of capital is where rates hit AI; companies may dilute equity rather than borrow.

  He first argued that rates were not hitting hyperscalers and that other factors drove prices, then reversed. He now thinks higher cost of capital is where rates bite, and that AI companies may choose equity dilution over new debt, which the stock market doesn't like.

  “So here's where it's making a real impact. Higher cost of capital.”at 51:23

AI & jobs

• Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  AI anxiety is real because AI will impact the labor market and cost jobs.

  He sees real breakthroughs, including drug discovery and self-driving, but says the anxiety about jobs is real because AI is impacting and will impact the labor market, and people's jobs will be lost. He argues the public worry is legitimate, not simply noise about the stock market.

  “It is and will impact the labor market. People's jobs will be lost.”at 42:02

AI chips & semiconductors

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Memory chip price spike won't last; China and Korea are adding supply.

  He expects more memory supply to reach the market because Chinese and Korean producers are actively working to expand their memory output. He doubts current tight memory pricing can persist.

  “I think we will end up with more memory on the market somehow. The Chinese, the Koreans... they are actively working on bringing more memory for their own benefit. I can't imagine it stays this way.”at 44:12

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management

  Screen price moves can't reveal the AI trade's state; leverage and unknowable expectations drive prices.

  Stock prices are an equation of today's fundamentals, current sentiment toward companies, and unknowable guesses about future fundamentals. Leverage adds forced selling and short squeezes, which swamp fundamentals. So reading the vibe of the AI trade from the screen at any moment is a mirage.

  “what you're seeing is an equation with three variables. What are today's fundamentals? What is the sentiment toward the companies?”at 45:25