Paul Tudor Jones’ Call for 2027 & Vibes 10/13/26

Anthropic

Across the shows: 26 speakers in other episodes, 10 bullish and 31 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Paul Tudor Jones · Tudor Investment CorporationBullish

  Anthropic will do well in its upcoming IPO, and OpenAI's valuation will depend on Anthropic's performance.

  Asked about the Anthropic listing expected around November, Jones says he thinks Anthropic will do well. He argues that much of OpenAI's valuation will rest on what Anthropic does, linking the two frontier labs' valuations. He gives little supporting detail for the call.

  “Well, I think Anthropic will do well. I think OpenAI's, a lot of it will rest on what Anthropic does.”at 17:58

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Paul Tudor Jones · Tudor Investment Corporation

  Market feels like 1999, split between AI adopters and non-adopters moving in opposite directions.

  Jones says the market still feels like 1999 because it is a two-speed market, with companies adopting AI and those that are not moving in opposite directions, as in 1999. He cites a conference he hosted where about 20% of attendees said they were trading in 1999, versus the 10% he guessed. He sees the current path as great in the short term but possibly not great in the long term.

  “[It] still feels like 1999, a two speed market. You've got it completely, perfectly bifurcated in the sense that you have obviously everything that's adopting AI and everything that's not, and they're going in opposite directions.”at 13:44

• Paul Tudor Jones · Tudor Investment Corporation

  Tech multiples are compressing because of AI safety fears and administration rhetoric on liability.

  Jones argues that multiple compression across the tech space is driven by concerns about AI safety and rhetoric from the administration that companies will be responsible if they make a mistake. Strong earnings, revenue and projections do not protect valuations if a model goes rogue or bad actors use it maliciously. Investors are reassessing because they have no visibility into how AI will reshape businesses, so they will not pay for the earnings.

  “I think, multiple compression in that space, in the whole tech space, is because obviously with all the concerns about AI safety and certainly with the rhetoric that's coming out of administration that you're going to be responsible if you make a mistake.”at 18:10

US stock market outlook

• Paul Tudor Jones · Tudor Investment Corporation

  Strong fourth-quarter rally expected after the midterms, with the market bottoming late October or early November.

  Looking at midterm election cycles, Jones argues the market should have a very strong fourth quarter coming out of the midterms. He expects the market to typically bottom in late October or early November, followed by a fourth-quarter push. He says positioning makes that possible. He describes his near-term playbook as short-term weakness, intermediate-term strength at year end.

  “If you kinda just go back and look at midterm cycles... it would tell you that we should have a really, really strong fourth quarter coming out of the midterms. The market typically bottoms sometime late October, early November, and then you get to fourth quarter push.”at 16:00

• Paul Tudor Jones · Tudor Investment Corporation

  2027 will be very challenging for stocks because US equity flows are the most negative since 2009.

  Jones says his main focus is flows. Summing buybacks and M&A, the positive corporate support that has powered the market since about 2009, and subtracting IPOs, secondaries and unlocks, gives the most negative US equity flow picture since 2009. The mega-IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic shift that math. He compares it to 2000 to 2002, when IPO supply and unlocks kept adding stock to the market. He expects insiders with concentrated AI holdings to diversify and sell as unlocks arrive, and says he will be short the whole year at some point in 2027.

  “2027 is gonna be really, really challenging for the stock market... you probably got the most negative flow picture for The US stock market that we've had say since 2002.”at 16:29

AI regulation & safety

• Paul Tudor Jones · Tudor Investment Corporation

  Unregulated AI is dangerous; 85% of Americans want regulation and will get it politically.

  Jones argues that AI is the basis of US technological leadership, but unfettered, unregulated intelligence is not a good thing and too much of it can be bad. He ties this to the interpretability problem: neural nets give an output without anyone knowing why, which he has long seen as a safety concern. He compares AI safety to border security. He cites polling that 85% of Americans want AI regulation and says it will come one way or another through politics.

  “And 85% of Americans right now want AI regulation, and one way or another, they're gonna get it politically.”at 21:43

Oil & fuels

• Paul Tudor Jones · Tudor Investment Corporation

  Bullish on oil, which can rally another $20 to $25 as Iran tensions persist past the midterms.

  Jones is long oil and expects a further rally of $20 to $25. He reasons that if an easy resolution to the Iran situation were available, it would have happened before the midterms. He assumes the president has a plan that will be tougher and may be exercised after the midterms, so a sword of Damocles hangs over the oil market. He admits equities will hate the higher oil prices, but sees short-term upside.

  “Long oil, bullish on oil. I think it can rally another 20 or $25.”at 23:29

US deficit & government debt

• Paul Tudor Jones · Tudor Investment Corporation

  Unsustainable deficits will force a market-driven fiscal fix, possibly as a bond-market breakdown.

  Jones says the US carries about $40 trillion of debt and that the fiscal path is unsustainable. Politicians will not voluntarily raise taxes or cut spending, so they will be forced to by the market. He puts it at 60/40 that the country is now at that tipping point. He cites a senate majority leader who said the deficits would only be fixed when the market forced it, as in 2008 and TARP. Final resolution means a fixed-income market breaks and sends prices that break the stock market. He is unsure about timing but thinks the markets may keep kicking the can, which is what makes this time different is the AI-related issuance.

  “No politicians are gonna voluntarily raise taxes or cut spending. They're gonna be forced to, and the only question is, are we now at that tipping point where the market's about to do that?”at 26:57

Credit markets

• Paul Tudor Jones · Tudor Investment Corporation

  AI-related debt issuance may be the tipping point that crowds out sovereign debt.

  Jones notes that hyperscaler and AI-related issuance is up about 50% and corporate issuance is up 50% since 2022. In an already crowded global debt market, sovereign debt is already competing for capital. He calls the corporate issuance the tipping point. If forecasts are met, AI-related issuance will reach about 3.6% of GDP, 50% more than railroads and triple highways, telecoms and other major infrastructure build-outs. He sees competition between the AI build-out and sovereigns as potentially pushing the system to the tipping point.

  “I think what's different this time is the combination of the AI related issuance. It's gonna be something like 3.6% of GDP if these forecasts are met.”at 27:50

US rates & the Fed

• Paul Tudor Jones · Tudor Investment Corporation

  Fed chair Kevin Warsh will not inflate away the debt the way Japan's central bank did.

  Jones explains that historically, a central bank becomes fiscally dominated and inflates its way out of the debt, which is what Japan has done. He thinks Kevin Warsh is cut from a different cloth and will not do that. He sees that as making the path ahead challenging and raising the chance that something breaks. This is a judgment about the Fed's behaviour with no operational detail given.

  “Historically, what happens is that you have the central bank become fiscally dominated and they inflate their way out of it, is what Japan has done. Kevin, I think, is cut from a different path. I think he'll... He won't do that.”at 28:48

US Treasuries & yields

• Paul Tudor Jones · Tudor Investment Corporation

  Bessent's Treasury interventions give short-term relief but only deficit repair changes long-run Treasury prices.

  Jones says Treasury Secretary Bessent is sharp and likely to try everything to stop higher yields, drawing a parallel to Japan's intervention in the yen. Those interventions will have short-term salutary effects but do not address the structural problem. The only way to change the long-run path of Treasury prices is to fix the deficit. Adding the 100 basis point rise in yields to CBO projections pushes the 2036 deficit from a projected 6.5% of GDP to about 8%.

  “I think his interventions will have short term salutary effects, but in the long run, the only way you're really gonna change the ultimate path of treasury prices is to fix the deficit.”at 32:56