Is This The End Of MAGA? — ft. Anthony Scaramucci

Anthony Scaramucci · SkyBridge Capital

Democrats are unlikely to lose the House or Senate over the next six years.

He points to the map for 2028, 2030 and 2032 and to the size of the Democratic win in a country that has been close to 50-50 since 2000. He says the margin is staggering. He notes that the Democrats would only lose control if they picked a Trump-like figure, which could produce a resounding trouncing. Otherwise he sees the Republican Party as seriously damaged.

“And it seems impossible over the next six years that the Democrats will lose the house and Senate. Now, listen, crazy things happen.”at 3:59

Anthony Scaramucci · SkyBridge Capital

No non-MAGA Republican leader exists; every national contender is MAGA or MAGA-adjacent.

When Ed suggests a Chris Christie or Paul Ryan type could lead the party's non-MAGA wing, Scaramucci challenges him to name one leader who was not MAGA. He lists Christie, Liz Cheney and Paul Ryan as differentiating options but says they are MAGA-adjacent or MAGA-light. He says Rubio and JD Vance are too dipped in Trump to escape, David McCormick is MAGA, and Glenn Youngkin is the least MAGA but was still pretty MAGA as governor. Republicans will distance themselves, but none has a credible break.

“I agree, but then I want you to point to me to a leader that wasn't MAGA. Tell me one leader that you and I could point to, household name, somebody that people could recognize, national figure... They all went into the bucket for MAGA.”at 5:20

Anthony Scaramucci · SkyBridge Capital

Congressional insider trading is systemic and reforms get quietly reversed; a broad ethics review is needed.

Scaramucci argues that insider trading by members of Congress is a systemic problem. He cites the 2012 episode in which Congress passed a law to stop members trading on information from their own legislation, then reversed it three months later by voice vote. He also points to Pelosi's trades, arguing ethics abuses are bipartisan. From this he concludes the Democrats would do better to run an omnibus ethics review of all of Washington than to target Trump alone, since the whataboutism would undermine any single-party probe.

“they passed a law that denied them all the right to do the trade. They let three months go by and they didn't go on C SPAN... They did a voice vote by telephone to reinstate their ability to trade with inside information”at 37:55

Anthony Scaramucci · SkyBridge Capital

MAGA isn't finished; Trump may back more MAGA candidates and rebound after the midterm losses.

After asking whether the midterm results mark the end of MAGA, Scaramucci argues it is more likely a new stage. He says it is not clear Trump will stop fielding MAGA candidates, since he may try to unseat sitting House members who did not back him. He adds that Trump historically recovers after being counted out, so the movement's obituary is premature. The case rests on Trump's past behaviour and his likely tactics rather than polling or hard data.

“I think we're gonna go into another stage. It's not clear to me that he doesn't field more MAGA candidates to see if he can dislodge some of these members of the house. But, you know, when you count out Trump, he rises from the ashes.”at 42:23

Ed Elson · Prof G Media

Trump's tariffs are hurting manufacturing jobs and farmers, with the economy roiled by his policies.

Ed cites a chain of effects: higher oil prices raised diesel, then fertilizer and grocery prices, which he says has hurt farmers. He points to tariffs affecting manufacturing and a decline in manufacturing jobs, and concludes the economy has been roiled by Trump's economic policies. Voters were reacting against it.

“we've seen the tariffs affecting manufacturing. We've seen actually a decline in manufacturing jobs. I mean, the economy has been roiled by the economic policies of Trump.”at 10:41

Anthony Scaramucci · SkyBridge Capital

Broad tariff rollback is unlikely near term, as Trump is still pressing tariffs, though he could reverse later.

He doubts a rollback could happen quickly and says a broad rollback would likely be unlikely, since Trump is still pressing tariffs. Canada's Carney says there has been progress after the US dropped some demands, so a deal is possible, but Carney cannot be seen to make concessions. Republicans are pushing Trump on tariffs because they cost votes: Susan Collins lost in Maine partly over tariffs in her border state, and Mike Rogers' Michigan loss is linked to them. Trump is transactional, so a reversal would not surprise him, but he judges it unlikely to come fast. He also argues that the tariffs were illegal, and the current ones likely are too.

“Could it happen ASAP? I doubt it. A broad rollback of the tariffs would likely be unlikely.”at 14:38

Anthony Scaramucci · SkyBridge Capital

Iran war is a $500B venture that raised family energy costs by about $2,400 each.

He puts the war at a $500 billion venture. It includes about $50 billion in spending to keep forces such as the Navy and Marine Expeditionary Forces in place. Energy costs rose by roughly $150-200 billion, about $2,400 per family. The increase covers gasoline, diesel, fuel and jet fuel, and he notes the rise in fuel prices seen in Europe. The war also contributed to higher interest rates.

“The war is a $500,000,000,000 venture because it's $50,000,000,000 in climbing to leave the Navy where it is, the Marine Expeditionary Forces, all of that stuff. It is 150, possibly 200, it's $2,400 a family in the increase in energy costs in the country”at 23:31

Anthony Scaramucci · SkyBridge Capital

Iran war pushed Treasury yields sharply higher, raising borrowing costs across the economy and hurting savers.

Before the war, the [10-year] yield was [3.96%], and consensus expected two or three rate cuts in 2026. Yields are now above 4.90% and peaked in the 5.30s. Higher yields have raised borrowing costs across society and pushed some stocks down, which hurt people's 401(k)s and savings. He says the war has produced no outcome to justify the cost.

“He declares war, the [10-year] tenures at [3.96%] going into the war. It's over four ninety now. It peaked in the 530s.”at 24:15

Anthony Scaramucci · SkyBridge Capital

Split government (Congress flips, president stays Republican) has historically been bullish for stocks because gridlock limits policy.

The Stock Trader Almanac, which tracks presidential cycles back to 1896, shows that when Congress turns to the Democrats while Republicans keep the presidency, investors get bullish. The main reason is near-complete gridlock in Washington, so little gets done. He cites the Clinton era: a government shutdown, then a reform-based compromise that helped produce a budget surplus in 2000, and argues that mixed government helped the country.

“it turns out that when you have a mixed cycle, when you have the Congress turn to the Democrats and the Republicans still keep the presidency, people actually get bullish. And the main reason they get bullish is there's almost complete gridlock in Washington and nothing gets done.”at 27:10

Anthony Scaramucci · SkyBridge Capital

Data center backlash is durable: voters link the AI buildout to higher utility bills and are rejecting it locally.

Data centers are unpopular across the electorate. Exit polls show 23% of voters said AI and data centers were crucial to their vote. Of 33 ballot measures restricting data centers, only one was pro-data center nationally. In Ohio, 14 municipalities passed bans or restrictions. Scaramucci says the AI boom was meant to be the GOP's economic story but became a utility-bill issue, because demand for power is pushing prices up. He says the issue is broadly unpopular, younger people dislike it, and candidates running on regulation did well. He asks whether it is a permanent feature of American politics and answers 'I think so.'

“I think the AI boom was supposed to be the GOP's economic story, but it ended up on the ballot as somebody's utility bill.”at 28:48

Anthony Scaramucci · SkyBridge Capital

Voters fear the AI buildout will eliminate white-collar jobs, as China's WTO entry did to working-class jobs.

He draws a parallel with China's entry into the WTO. Working-class families warned it would hurt them, and Wall Street dismissed the concern. He argues the same pattern applies to AI. White-collar workers such as administrative staff and early-stage consultants would be knocked out of their jobs, and that is the message in the polling.

“whoever's our white collar family member that's administrative or in an early stage consultancy is gonna get knocked out of the job. Don't do this.”at 31:36

Ed Elson · Prof G Media

Democratic pushback on AI will likely be moderate, a pause until a regulatory framework exists, not abolition.

Ed says candidates who handled the new AI and data-center issue well have figured out the political scripts. He expects the headlines about abolishing data centers to overstate the outcome. The likelier result is a pause until a regulatory framework is in place, after which the buildout proceeds. He thinks that would be good policy and that Americans would be relieved by it.

“It seems to me that I would bet that it's gonna be a lot more moderate and a lot more reasonable than people think.”at 34:49