The Stock Market Is Already Pricing In A Democratic Sweep

Microsoft

Across the shows: 34 speakers in other episodes, 34 bullish and 5 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBullish

  Microsoft's disciplined capex and cash flow justified its post-earnings rally.

  Microsoft's revenue rose 19% and Azure grew 48%, and the stock rose up to 5% after the report. Galloway argues investors liked its cash flow discipline and capex that looked disciplined compared with the alternatives, even though the spend is still huge. He contrasts this with Alphabet, which he says managed AI capex less disciplined and had cash burn.

  “[Their] CapEx looked fairly disciplined. Now granted, it's still unbelievable. It's still out of control, but it looks fairly disciplined.”at 32:27

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBullish

  Microsoft is the only hyperscaler still cash-flow positive, and Scott thinks it's doing it right.

  Scott says Microsoft is the only one of the five hyperscalers that has remained cash-flow positive, while Alphabet appears to be on the wrong side of that line. He thinks Microsoft has threaded the needle on AI spending. He also notes the market has rewarded Microsoft for it, though he separately raises concerns about how AI is being used to cut costs.

  “Of the five hyperscalers, Microsoft is the only one that has remained cash flow positive. They're doing it right, I think.”at 50:46

• Ed Elson · Prof G MediaBullish

  Microsoft is well managed: it plays the AI race without betting the farm, so investors are right to reward it.

  Ed owns Microsoft and says it has done extremely well for him. He argues that Microsoft has done a good job balancing its capex and discipline, staying in the AI game while not betting the farm on it. He thinks investors are rewarding Microsoft for that approach, and that discipline on capex is what the market should be watching.

  “I think Microsoft is a good example of that. I think Microsoft has done a good job here, in terms of managing playing in the game, but also not betting the farm on this game.”at 52:06

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessUncertain

  Microsoft's plan to cut 60,000 jobs with AI shows shareholder primacy; the market rewards it, which is frightening.

  Scott cites Microsoft offering buyouts to 60,000 people, nearly a third of its workforce, as a stunning number that was barely covered. He says it is a frightening part of AI: a company can beat on the top and bottom line and still cut its headcount. He sees this as evidence that the US has become a shareholder nation where only EPS and year-to-date stock performance matter, and suggests this would have been front-page news decades ago.

  “This is the frightening part about AI, is you can massively grow your top line, beats on top and bottom, and the CEO says, oh, and try and reduce our headcount by 60,000 people?”at 56:16

Alphabet

Across the shows: 47 speakers in other episodes, 35 bullish and 26 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBearish

  AI mode cannibalizes Alphabet's ad business, and its capex is poorly managed.

  On the earnings call, Alphabet's executive admitted that AI mode generates fewer ads, which Galloway reads as the company confessing its flagship product cannibalizes its core business. He calls search the world's most profitable tollbooth and says it is under attack. He argues Alphabet's AI capex was not managed as disciplined as Microsoft's, and the company is now taking out second mortgages to fund a renovation that cash on hand would have covered. He says he now uses Claude for basic search, and that this will eventually show up in the numbers.

  “when Alphabet's executive admits on the earnings call that AI mode generates fewer ads, it's like the company confessing its flagship product cannibalizes its core business.”at 32:37

• Ed Elson · Prof G MediaBullish

  Alphabet has kept up in the AI race with Gemini; search decline is not yet proven.

  Elson says Google's revenue grew 25% and he is less worried about search, which grew but less than expected. He thinks the market overreacts to any sign ChatGPT will eat Google's search. He would need to see search revenue flatline or decline before believing that. He thinks Google has kept up in the AI race with Gemini. His main concern is negative free cash flow, which he ties to the hyperscalers' data center spending.

  “I think they've actually kept up, on this AI race quite well.”at 35:15

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBullish

  Alphabet is a buying opportunity: it trades at a discount to the S&P despite robust, diversified growth.

  Scott argues Alphabet is a buying opportunity because it trades at a P/E of 14.6 versus 19.5 for the S&P 500, even though it is a far stronger business than an average index company like Caterpillar or P&G. He cites YouTube growing strongly, search always up double digits, a booming cloud business, and relationships with millions of businesses and billions of consumers that could help it win an agentic layer. He notes every past check-back in Alphabet's history has been a buying opportunity.

  “is this a buying opportunity? Because if you look at Alphabet's PE right now, it's 14.6 versus the S and P at 19.5.”at 39:49

• Ed Elson · Prof G MediaBullish

  Alphabet's P/E is inflated by Anthropic markups; adjusted, it's fair, and the market undervalues search.

  Ed says Alphabet's P/E needs adjusting because markups on its private Anthropic stakes flow through its income, so the headline multiple is overstated. After the adjustment, he expects it to sit roughly in line with the S&P 500, which he says is not expensive. He isn't fully convinced and wants to look more closely, but he doesn't see a sell and believes the market is treating the stock, especially its search business, unfairly.

  “After the adjustment, my expectation is that it would be maybe, like, in line with the S and P, which still isn't expensive. ... I don't think it's a sell.”at 41:13

Netflix

Across the shows: 19 speakers in other episodes, 11 bullish and 14 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Ed Elson · Prof G MediaBearish

  Netflix faces a shrinking engagement problem and a stock down 44%, and needs a clear plan.

  Ed notes average viewing time per Netflix member has fallen 26% over three years and expects it to keep falling. He says Netflix is being killed by YouTube in TV viewing time, and the stock is already down 44% in the past year. Netflix now competes with Meta, TikTok and YouTube rather than just HBO Max, so he thinks the question is what its plan is, and he is not sure there is a good answer.

  “Average viewing time per member on Netflix has fallen 26% in the past three years. ... That's gonna keep going down.”at 1:09:01

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessUncertain

  Netflix is in an existential crisis, but its strong management and user base make it interesting if it pivots to short-form.

  Scott says Netflix faces an existential crisis of being lumped in with struggling media companies, which trade at about 5x sales versus the 8-10x it got as a tech company. He doesn't think a merger with NBCUniversal solves it, since that would just cement the same problems. He says Netflix must get into mobile-friendly short-form video, because capital is flowing toward smaller screens. He was looking at it as a buy because of its strong management and built-in user base, but it needs a different offering.

  “I was actually looking at Netflix as a buy because I think the management team is so strong and a built in user base”at 1:12:39

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBearish

  Netflix's content arms race is unsustainable; expect a content budget cut and a pivot to new formats.

  Galloway argues that attention is shrinking and consumption cannot justify the very large original-content spend, which he puts near $20 billion. He says the industry was already asking how this could be sustained two or three years ago, and the answer is that it cannot. He expects Netflix to announce a reduced content budget and to pursue acquisitions or short-form formats. He says Netflix has probably gone too far in the arms race. He had been viewing the stock as a buy but now sees more pain ahead.

  “So I think it's only a matter of time before Netflix, one, announces... Also, I think what's coming, they're gonna announce they're gonna reduce their content budget.”at 1:14:20

• Ed Elson · Prof G MediaBearish

  Netflix's tech-company positioning won't work; it should commit to being a premium media company.

  Elson says Netflix has been seen as a tech company but now looks similar to NBCUniversal, Warner Bros. Discovery and Disney. He says it is dabbling in short-form clips, aggregation and premium production, and that ads are a recent addition. Wall Street is not buying the mixed identity, and he argues it hurts both perception and the business. He thinks the tech angle is too late and too expensive, since catching up with YouTube now would face heavy competition. He suggests going fully media and premium luxury, which he says could lift the multiple even though it is a worse business. He says Netflix is in purgatory until it settles its story.

  “Honestly don't think that the tech company angle is going to work. I think it's gonna kinda look like old guy wants to be young.”at 1:16:44

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 62 speakers in other episodes, 50 bullish and 33 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Ed Elson · Prof G MediaUncertain

  Meta's need to keep raising equity capital is concerning, even though he owns the stock.

  Ed owns Meta and says it has done well for him. He notes Meta is down this week because investors are worried about its equity sale, which he calls completely reasonable. Although Meta is one of the most profitable businesses ever, the fact that it now needs to keep raising more money concerns him and makes the stock jumpy.

  “Meta's down this week. Investors are very worried about that equity sale, which I think is completely reasonable. The fact that they need to keep on raising more money is concerning.”at 43:26

• Ed Elson · Prof G MediaBullish

  Instagram's long-form video push is a strong move that will hurt YouTube and other media companies.

  Ed sees Instagram's new 90-minute video features and Reels on Apple TV as a direct challenge to YouTube. He notes Instagram won't share ad revenue with creators, unlike YouTube. He argues this isn't zero-sum, since Meta's business is built on selling ads against impressions, and more content means more impressions and money. He thinks the move will genuinely cause problems for YouTube and every other media company.

  “This to me seems like a good move by Meta that will genuinely cause problems for YouTube and for every other media company.”at 1:03:21

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBullish

  Meta is coming for YouTube's 16% TV share, boosted by its 3B users and an addictive AI-driven feed.

  Scott thinks Meta will go hard at long-form video, using its 3 billion users to game the algorithm and reward early adopters with huge view counts. He says Meta will be able to embed ads and host read-ins that can be sold to advertisers. He cites YouTube holding 16% of TV viewing and believes Meta is coming for it. He also credits Instagram's AI-driven recommendation algorithm, funded by capex, as dangerously addictive.

  “I think Meta is absolutely coming for that 16% that YouTube commands right now.”at 1:05:17

Apple

Across the shows: 17 speakers in other episodes, 7 bullish and 14 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBullish

  Apple's refusal to join the AI arms race shows discipline, and it has outperformed the Mag 7 peers that joined.

  Scott says Apple is the only Magnificent Seven company that has not played in the AI arms race, and it has the strongest year-to-date stock performance, significantly outperforming the six that did. He credits Apple's discipline about what not to do: it passed on VR after one bet, killed its car project when the numbers did not work, and stayed out of search and AI. He thinks Apple is undercredited for being better at saying no than any company its size.

  “They have more discipline around what not to do than any company of that size.”at 46:02

• Ed Elson · Prof G MediaBearish

  Apple is wrong to stay out of AI; it needs a credible strategy and is exposed to missing a huge revolution.

  Ed says he is usually a sucker for discipline, but still thinks Apple has this one wrong. He accepts that investors are rewarding Apple for not chasing AI hype, but says the company needs to show what it is pursuing instead. He sees little vision in its recent products, including the headset flop and the iPhone Fold reports of cracking screens and zero replacement inventory. He argues there is significant downside risk in not participating if AI becomes a huge profit revolution.

  “I still think they've got this one wrong.”at 46:50

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 51 speakers in other episodes, 42 bullish and 15 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBearish

  Nvidia's financing of Meta debt and its investments are circular deals resembling past bubble-era ecosystem props.

  Scott believes Nvidia has agreed to purchase or participate in Meta's debt offering, and that some of that money will be used to buy Nvidia chips. He says Nvidia is not only selling the picks and shovels but financing the mine and owning the bank that lends the money. He calls it the mother of all circular deals, and compares Nvidia's widespread investments to the ecosystem-propping deals of the 1990s and to FTX-style excess, which he finds scary.

  “I believe NVIDIA has agreed to purchase or participate in the debt offering of Meta.”at 56:49

• Ed Elson · Prof G MediaBearish

  He won't buy Nvidia; its circular, sentiment-dependent financing is classic bubble behavior.

  Ed says the market has already reacted, with Nvidia's multiple contracting, but he still cannot buy the stock because of the circular financing Scott described. He calls it classic bubble behavior and compares it to FTX, where a change in sentiment brought the company down once it was overly exposed. He argues that if Meta needs Nvidia to buy its equity or debt, that signals weak market demand and leaves the whole ecosystem exposed to sentiment swings.

  “That's why I don't think I can buy NVIDIA... this is just classic bubble behavior.”at 58:18

Chevron

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBearish

  Chevron is hurt by a Democratic sweep through falling oil prices and Venezuela probes.

  Galloway expects Democrats to tie high energy prices to broader cost pressures and to push oversight of corporate pricing and market concentration. He thinks oil will fall as a result, which would hurt oil majors further. Investigations into energy exploration in Venezuela matter most for a company like Chevron.

  “Oil's gonna come down, which is gonna hurt them more.”at 22:10

Target

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBullish

  Target benefits if a Democratic sweep leads to tariff rollbacks.

  Galloway argues tariff-exposed retailers would gain if tariffs are rolled back or reduced with more certainty after a Democratic sweep. He names Target among the beneficiaries. The argument is a mechanism without company-specific figures.

  “if we roll back the tariffs and there's more certainty around the tariffs going away or being reduced, folks like Walmart, Target, Nike, Best Buy, I think, actually benefited the Democrats' sweep.”at 23:07

Nike

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBullish

  Nike benefits if a Democratic sweep leads to tariff rollbacks.

  Galloway argues tariff-exposed retailers would gain if tariffs are rolled back or reduced with more certainty after a Democratic sweep. He names Nike among the beneficiaries. The argument is a mechanism without company-specific figures.

  “if we roll back the tariffs and there's more certainty around the tariffs going away or being reduced, folks like Walmart, Target, Nike, Best Buy, I think, actually benefited the Democrats' sweep.”at 23:07

Best Buy Co.

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBullish

  Best Buy benefits if a Democratic sweep leads to tariff rollbacks.

  Galloway argues tariff-exposed retailers would gain if tariffs are rolled back or reduced with more certainty after a Democratic sweep. He names Best Buy among the beneficiaries. The argument is a mechanism without company-specific figures.

  “if we roll back the tariffs and there's more certainty around the tariffs going away or being reduced, folks like Walmart, Target, Nike, Best Buy, I think, actually benefited the Democrats' sweep.”at 23:07

Walmart

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBullish

  Walmart benefits if a Democratic sweep leads to tariff rollbacks.

  Galloway argues tariff-exposed retailers would gain if tariffs are rolled back or reduced with more certainty after a Democratic sweep. He names Walmart, Target, Nike and Best Buy as beneficiaries of the sweep. The argument is a mechanism without company-specific figures.

  “if we roll back the tariffs and there's more certainty around the tariffs going away or being reduced, folks like Walmart, Target, Nike, Best Buy, I think, actually benefited the Democrats' sweep.”at 23:07

Oscar Health

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBullish

  Oscar Health benefits if a Democratic sweep makes ACA health subsidies permanent.

  Galloway names Oscar among ACA marketplace insurers that would benefit if a Democratic sweep makes health subsidies permanent. The argument rests on the policy mechanism and does not include company-specific numbers.

  “ACA marketplace insurers like Centene, Oscar, Molina, making health subsidies permanent would just be good for those guys.”at 23:20

Centene

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBullish

  Centene benefits if a Democratic sweep makes ACA health subsidies permanent.

  Galloway says a Democratic sweep would make ACA marketplace health subsidies permanent, which would be good for ACA marketplace insurers including Centene, Oscar Health and Molina. He presents this as one of the winners from the sweep. It is a short, mechanism-based claim without company-level numbers.

  “ACA marketplace insurers like Centene, Oscar, Molina, making health subsidies permanent would just be good for those guys.”at 23:20

Molina Healthcare

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBullish

  Molina benefits if a Democratic sweep makes ACA health subsidies permanent.

  Galloway names Molina among ACA marketplace insurers that would benefit if a Democratic sweep makes health subsidies permanent. The argument rests on the policy mechanism and does not include company-specific numbers.

  “ACA marketplace insurers like Centene, Oscar, Molina, making health subsidies permanent would just be good for those guys.”at 23:20

Nebius Group

• Ed Elson · Prof G MediaBearish

  Nebius is already cracking as an AI bubble casualty; its credit and stock are falling.

  Ed argues the neocloud companies whose only business is AI data centers will be the ones that get hurt when the AI buildout sours. He says the bubble is already popping for Nebius and similar names, and cites skyrocketing credit default swaps and plummeting stock prices as evidence. He expects these names to be caught out as they depend more on capital-market sentiment to fund their growth.

  “if there's an AI bubble, it's already popping for CoreWeave, for [IREN], for Nebius, for all of these random data center names”at 49:38

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 59 speakers in other episodes, 16 bullish and 56 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Ed Elson · Prof G MediaBearish

  CoreWeave is already cracking as an AI bubble casualty; its credit and stock are falling.

  Ed argues the neocloud companies whose only business is AI data centers will be the ones that get hurt when the AI buildout sours. He says the bubble is already popping for CoreWeave and similar names, and points to evidence: their credit default swaps are skyrocketing and their stock prices are plummeting. He expects them to be caught out, especially as they rely more on capital-market sentiment to keep raising money.

  “if there's an AI bubble, it's already popping for CoreWeave, for [IREN], for Nebius, for all of these random data center names”at 49:38

Palantir Technologies

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBearish

  Palantir's 50x forward sales leave no room; anything short of a blowout beat means the stock falls.

  Galloway says Palantir trades at about 50 times forward sales, so the market expects near-perfect results. He cites Palantir and Nvidia losing about $120 billion in market cap in May the day after beating estimates. At that multiple, he argues, a beat is the minimum and anything short of a blowout is a sell. He says the market has become used to huge beats and that some air will come out of the stock. He predicts the company will beat this week and the stock will still fall, comparing it to a student who gets an A but was expected to get an A-plus.

  “Palantir is trading at roughly 50 times sales... 50 times forward sales. ... And at that multiple, a beat is the minimum. Anything short of a blowout is a sell on this thing at this price.”at 1:18:35

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Ed Elson · Prof G Media

  Hyperscalers' negative free cash flow leaves a roughly $1.5T funding gap, forcing capital-markets raises.

  Elson says all hyperscalers except Microsoft have turned negative on free cash flow because of data center spending, which reached nearly $700B in the past twelve months, up nearly 90%. Microsoft still has positive free cash flow, but it fell 27%. Cash on hand is nearly $600B across the hyperscalers, but estimated capex over the next two years exceeds $2T, which he puts at a roughly $1.5T gap. Because cash flows can no longer fund the build, the companies must go to the capital markets to raise money.

  “is is is like a $1,500,000,000,000 gap between how much money they're going to spend and how much money they actually have.”at 37:09

• Ed Elson · Prof G Media

  Hyperscalers now depend on capital markets for AI spending, leaving them more vulnerable than before.

  Big Tech used to be self-funding and independent. Now AI data-center spending has turned their cash flows negative, so they must raise money externally. Cited examples: Microsoft's $25B bond sale the day after its earnings, and Meta's plan to raise $95B in equity a week earlier. Because they need investors' money, Ed argues they are in a systemically more vulnerable position if investors refuse to fund them.

  “They need money from the capital markets. They need money from us, the investors. And if we decide that we don't wanna give them that money, then they're screwed.”at 38:10

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of Business

  AI capex at 3.6% of GDP is historically huge; past transformative buildouts left many bankruptcies.

  Scott compares AI infrastructure spending as a share of GDP with past transformative technologies: canals about 0.7% over five years, railroads 2.2% over twenty years, electrification 0.5%, highways 1.13%, telecom and fiber 1.1%, and AI so far at 3.6%. He says this shows AI is a big buildout. He notes railroads did transform the world, but along the way there were a ton of bankruptcies.

  “AI, so far, the AI era, so to speak, 3.6% of GDP. So this just feels like It's big.”at 53:17

US elections & politics

• Ed Elson · Prof G Media

  Democrats will sweep the midterms, with Senate control hinging on Maine, Texas and Michigan.

  Elson argues voters clearly blame Trump's tariffs and the Iran war for inflation and high fuel prices, and this time the cause is obvious. Trump is most underwater on the economy and inflation. Farmers face diesel prices up nearly 80%, and rural voters drive more miles. Young men, who backed Trump by 55% in 2024, now show about 26% support in polls. In Maine, heating oil costs are up 83% in a year, about 40% of exports go to Canada, and 50% tariffs hit logging equipment and wood products. He expects Democrats to take the House and probably the Senate, with Maine, Texas and Michigan decisive, and sees Iowa and Wisconsin showing similar dynamics.

  “I think it's a sweep.”at 14:22

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of Business

  A Democratic sweep of the House and Senate is the base case for the midterms.

  Galloway argues Democrats are favored. Cited Calshy odds put a blue wave (Democrats at least 218 House and 49 Senate seats) at 82%, and a 'tsunami' (both chambers) at roughly 65-67%. Nate Silver notes Democrats are polling about D+9 now versus D+7 in 2018, when they last gained seats mid-cycle. Typically the trailing party closes the gap as the election nears, but here the lead is widening. Battleground districts show the largest hit from living costs, with rents in Republican-held battlegrounds up 9% versus 4% in Democratic-held ones. Republicans are pulling money from battlegrounds, and Fox News moved South Carolina to toss-up. He calls the situation 'the sum of all fears' for the Republican Party.

  “So sweep is the base case. Right?”at 21:42

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of Business

  AI bubble may deflate as a measured decline rather than a sharp crash, with air coming out healthily.

  Scott frames the possibilities as a crash or what he calls a measured decline, where the V looks like a slope rather than a severe drop. He asks whether some air is starting to come out of the bubble in a healthy way rather than as a pop, pointing to the extremely levered AI names. The framing is partly a question, but he leans toward the gentler path.

  “Are we in for a crash or what I'd call a measured decline”at 53:38

• Ed Elson · Prof G Media

  AI bust risk is softer this cycle because big incumbents with strong core businesses are participating.

  Ed argues that unlike earlier bubbles, the AI buildout involves large incumbents, not just new names. He says that makes the downside less dangerous, because those firms have huge existing search and ad businesses that support them. He concludes there is more downside protection in this boom-bust cycle than in previous ones, so a fall would be less dramatic and less painful, though he admits this is an unpopular view.

  “it's actually less dangerous because those big names already have extremely strong preexisting businesses.”at 54:17

Healthcare system & insurers

• Ed Elson · Prof G Media

  A Democratic sweep could lift healthcare stocks by reversing Medicaid cuts, but it is already priced in.

  If Democrats sweep, Elson expects many Medicaid cuts to be reversed, which would help healthcare stocks. He argues this is already being priced in, since the health care sector is up more than 9% over the past three months, which he takes as evidence that investors expect a Democratic win.

  “health care stocks could rise because you might see that a lot of these Medicaid cuts will be reversed.”at 20:14

Pharma & biotech

• Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of Business

  Pharma with undisclosed White House pricing deals is most exposed to a Democratic sweep.

  Galloway says pharma companies with undisclosed pricing agreements with the administration are most exposed if Democrats win. Democrats have floated subpoenaing drug makers for the terms of those deals once they control the committees. He describes these as deals the administration has handed out.

  “the most exposed to getting hurt are probably pharma with undisclosed pricing deals with the White House.”at 21:45

Sports, betting & prediction markets

• Ed Elson · Prof G Media

  Sports betting companies are very worried about a Democratic sweep and regulation of gambling.

  Elson argues sports betting companies fear a Democratic sweep could bring regulation of gambling. His evidence is their midterm spending: about $72M this cycle, including $34M from DraftKings and $27M from FanDuel. He reads that spending as a sign they are desperate.

  “I think sports betting companies are also very worried about this.”at 23:29

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Ed Elson · Prof G Media

  Mega-cap tech trades erratically because investors are polarized on AI spending; conviction is very low.

  Ed notes that Meta and Microsoft have gone up and down erratically over the past year, even though they have been strong performers for him. He attributes this to deep uncertainty about tech because of how much they are spending on AI data centers, which has left investors polarized. He says the old reliability of knowing what these businesses will look like years out is gone, so the most valuable companies are now highly volatile and conviction is very low.

  “they've been going up and down so erratically throughout the course of the year because the reality is that there is so much uncertainty when it comes to tech right now”at 42:15