Closing Bell 10/14/26

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 7 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 7 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  CoreWeave's sell-off is a buying opportunity; he remains super bullish on the AI build-out names.

  Despite CoreWeave's sharp drop and debt concerns, Ives assumes 5 to 10% of data centers may not get built but still expects roughly a thousand to be built. He says the capex wave will drive the names, so he stays super bullish on CoreWeave, Nebius and similar names and sees the drop as an opportunity.

  “We assume five, 10% of the data center don't get built... that CapEx wave, I think that's really gonna be the driving force and why you continue to be super bullish here in these names.”at 4:59

• Jeff deGraaf · Renaissance Macro ResearchBearish

  CoreWeave is a highly levered name that will suffer as real rates tighten financial conditions.

  He points to CoreWeave as an example of the high-leverage names he thinks are most exposed to tighter financial conditions from high real rates. Companies that must go to the markets to finance or refinance are the most vulnerable, and he says that is already visible in CoreWeave's stock falling that day. The argument is brief, and it is built on CoreWeave's leverage and its dependence on capital markets.

  “You should be worried about high levered names. You're seeing that with things like CoreWeave today.”at 38:06

Anthropic

Across the shows: 33 speakers in other episodes, 15 bullish and 35 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Alex Kantrowitz · Big TechnologyUncertain

  Anthropic's $518B compute obligations, mostly uncancelable, are a scary sign of a tenuous, unproven bet.

  Kantrowitz cites reported 2025 revenue of about $4 billion against $518 billion in compute and infrastructure obligations, about 80% of which is reportedly uncancelable. He says these companies need the bets to survive, but the number shows how tenuous it is, since the technology is unproven and the plans assume continued growth.

  “That was accompanied by 518,000,000,000 in obligations on compute and infrastructure, 80% of which is reportedly uncancelable... I do think that number is a little scary. It sort of shows the tenuousness”at 29:01

• Alex Kantrowitz · Big TechnologyUncertain

  Anthropic's IPO is a belief trade; it must show about 10x revenue growth to clear the bar.

  Kantrowitz says the market is pricing Anthropic on belief, not hard figures, since much of its value is projected into the future. He argues that if Anthropic does not show roughly 10x growth on its end-2025 revenue, that would be a problem. He expects the IPO to be part numbers and part vibes, with very divergent outcomes possible.

  “if Anthropic doesn't come out and show 10 x growth on the revenue that they showed at the end of twenty twenty five, at least, that's gonna be a problem.”at 30:16

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 22 speakers in other episodes, 23 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Meta will significantly outperform over six to twelve months thanks to its installed base in AI.

  Ives says investors are overlooking Meta and Apple because their installed bases sit at the epicenter of AI adoption, as Meta is showing with its own models. He expects both names to significantly outperform over the next six to twelve months.

  “I think when you look at Meta and Apple in particular, you can't count them out because the installed bases at the epicenter... these are both names that are gonna significantly outperform over the next six, twelve months.”at 6:06

Apple

Across the shows: 18 speakers in other episodes, 7 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Apple will significantly outperform over six to twelve months as a toll collector in consumer AI.

  Ives argues Apple is not an AI model leader but has the golden install base at the center of consumer tech, so it will act as a toll collector in the consumer AI revolution. He says investors are starting to recognize this and expects Apple to significantly outperform over the next six to twelve months.

  “But when it comes to Apple, it's a good example... they are gonna be a toll collector in the consumer AI revolution.”at 6:06

US stock market outlook

• Keith Lerner · Truist Advisory Services

  Tech and AI remain the bull market's key theme; money should rotate back into mega-cap tech.

  Lerner says the mega-cap tech group made a new relative high and is still a better relative value than semiconductors, which rose 80% in Q2 and are now range-bound. Tech has outperformed since the bull market began, and its current weakness reflects catching up with a weak rest of the market. He says money comes back to tech because AI is the key theme.

  “ultimately money comes back to tech because the key theme of this bull market still is AI AI and tech in our view.”at 10:50

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital Management

  The midterm-year drawdown is normal; S&P typically falls 8-12% between August highs and midterm lows.

  Talkington uses data back to 1962 showing the S&P typically falls around 8 to 12% from its August high to the midterm-year low. He argues the current midterm-type downturn is therefore normal and in line with a long-running seasonal pattern.

  “between the August highs and the midterms lows, the average peak to trough for the S and P is around negative eight to 12%. So this midterm type of downturn to me is is normal”at 12:20

• Keith Lerner · Truist Advisory Services

  Bull market has more to go; markets should rebound over the next year unless recession hits.

  Lerner tested history and found markets are typically choppy for one to three months after a first rate hike. Over a longer window of about a year, markets tend to rebound as long as there is no recession, which is his base case. He expects the bull market, now four years old, to keep going on a bumpy path.

  “As you extend your time horizon over the next year, markets tend to rebound as long as you don't go into recession. That is our call. So all in all, we still think this bull market... has more to go.”at 18:49

• Jeff deGraaf · Renaissance Macro Research

  Money is rotating from tech into health care, which he calls one of the most neglected sectors ever.

  He says tech and health care tend to move as a natural yin and yang: when one is in favor the other is not, and health care offers defensiveness while tech offers blue-sky growth. He argues health care has made a big bottom after being one of the most neglected sectors in more than fifty years of alpha-adjusted return data, and that it is just starting to emerge. He suggests health care may benefit from using AI rather than producing it, and says the charts look good there.

  “Health care has made a big bottom. They were one of the most neglected sectors that we've ever seen, frankly, in the fifty plus years of data that we have... and it's just starting to emerge.”at 35:47

• Kara Murphy · Kestra Investment Management

  Rotate into small and mid caps: the S&P 500 is concentrated, and earnings growth is spreading.

  She says the rotation is a trade her firm has been in for a while. The first reason is risk: the S&P 500 and other broad indexes are heavily concentrated in a handful of names. The second is earnings. Tech has produced a lot of earnings growth, but that growth is starting to spread. Small and mid cap earnings expectations have climbed significantly over the year, and she sees the same pattern outside the US. She wants exposure elsewhere in the economy.

  “This has been a trade that we've been in for a while. Part of it is simply a risk play. When you look at the overall S and P five hundred or other broad diversified indexes, ...they're incredibly concentrated in just a handful of names.”at 43:47

US Treasuries & yields

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Most of the recent rate rise is already priced in; rate-sensitive areas and bonds offer opportunity.

  Garcia argues that yields have moved sharply over the past month, so most of the rate increase is already priced in. Rates could still rise, but not exponentially from here. She says investors can now lock in better yields in bonds and should look at rate-sensitive areas, while small caps with heavy debt and floating-rate exposure will be hit harder.

  “I would argue a majority of this rate hike that's happened. We've had quite a move in the last month. I think more of that is priced in than not at this point”at 9:58

• Keith Lerner · Truist Advisory Services

  The 10-year Treasury at about 5.2% looks like good value; bond-blowup and IMF deficit warnings are contrarian signals.

  Lerner notes the 10-year yield hit 5.30% and then fell below 5.20%, which he treats as a positive for bond investors. He reads recent warnings from economists about a bond blow-up and IMF comments on fiscal deficits as contrarian indicators. He sees value in the 10-year at current levels.

  “we saw the ten year treasury go up to $5.30 today and come back down to below $5.20. If you're a bond investor, that's a positive... we see value now in the ten year treasury”at 18:49

• Jeff deGraaf · Renaissance Macro Research

  High real rates are tightening financial conditions and spilling into credit spreads, hitting leveraged borrowers first.

  He says real rates are at twenty-year highs, which tightens financial conditions. He reads the five-year, five-year forward rates as a sign of doubt about Fed credibility. Once real rates tighten, the pressure moves into public credit markets, and he already sees it in triple-B spreads and to a lesser extent in B and double-B spreads. He expects it to move up the credit stack, and says today's inflation print will make the tightening worse. Companies that must access markets to finance or refinance are most at risk, although he calls the stress manageable for now.

  “High real rates are tightening of financial conditions. So you should be worried about high levered names... You should worry about things that have to go to the markets to finance or refinance because those are gonna be most vulnerable.”at 38:06

• Kara Murphy · Kestra Investment Management

  Long-end bonds don't pay enough for duration given the flat curve; short-to-medium maturities look attractive.

  She says higher long-term yields make it tempting to extend duration, but the curve is flat, so investors are not being paid enough to take on a lot of duration. She argues that the short-to-medium part of the curve is still quite attractive because short-term rates have risen. The view is about where on the curve the yield is worth holding, given the curve's shape.

  “But given the flatness in the curve, we don't think you're really being paid to take on a lot of duration here... the short to medium term part of the curve, we think is still quite attractive.”at 45:49

AI chips & semiconductors

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.

  Memory chip demand is accelerating past supply; the selloff is an overreaction and a buying opportunity.

  Ives is in South Korea and sees memory demand accelerating at a pace he says is hard to quantify. He argues demand will not reach equilibrium with supply until late 2028 or early 2029, so the current sell-off is a 'white knuckle' overreaction. He sees memory names such as SK Hynix and chip players like Nvidia as buying opportunities once fundamentals show through in earnings.

  “I don't even think we have equilibrium demand to supply till late two thousand twenty eight, early two thousand twenty nine. So I just think this is a white knuckle moment market way overreacting”at 4:07

• Jeff deGraaf · Renaissance Macro Research

  Memory chip stocks are technically vulnerable after a post-bubble breakdown, so investors should sell rallies.

  His quantitative bubble measure triggered, which he reads as the post-bubble phase. The initial crack played out through about August, and the rebound since has been anemic, with many names not even getting overbought before rolling over. He cites the DRAM ETF down more than 16%, Seagate down 22% and Western Digital down almost 20% month to date, and says the memory names are looking more vulnerable as they go. He links the weakness partly to short selling and to rumors that China may have cracked DRAM production. He argues peak margins invite competition, which makes him nervous, and his advice to clients for six or seven months has been to sell on the way down, especially when names start rolling over.

  “A lot of names didn't even get overbought, and then you roll back over... you wanna sell them on the way down, particularly when they start rolling over.”at 36:59

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.

  Hyperscaler deal acceleration will reassure investors; the AI data-center capex wave keeps going despite some builds slipping.

  Ives says hyperscaler deals have accelerated 30 to 40% sequentially, and that Microsoft, Amazon and Google results coming out in earnings season will answer the build-out questions. He assumes 5 to 10% of data centers may not get built, but argues about a thousand data centers will still be built, so the capex wave will be the main driver.

  “We think we've seen a 30 to 40% acceleration sequentially in terms of deals. And as that comes out, especially Microsoft... you look with Amazon, Google”at 4:59

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital Management

  Hyperscaler cloud growth near 55-56% will stabilize tech; memory selloff is a buying opportunity.

  Talkington says memory names are down about 12% over five or six days, and the SOX is below its 200-day average, with spillover from South Korea hitting US names. He sees it as an opportunity to add. He expects Google and Microsoft Azure cloud growth of 55 to 56% over the next two quarters, which he argues will stabilize tech.

  “those are looking to be growing at 55 to 56% over the next two quarters... that's gonna be a really stabilizing factor within tech, specifically within the hyperscalers cloud growth.”at 13:25

US growth & recession risk

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Today's selloff is a rate repricing, not a recession signal; economy still on good footing.

  Garcia says markets fell because rates are higher and are repricing that. She points to good data showing the economy is on solid footing, and she cites bank earnings as evidence. She argues this is a repricing from higher interest rates that does not flash a recession, which makes it a reason to look for opportunities.

  “if this is purely just a repricing from interest rates higher, not flashing a recession, and I would argue that's happening, especially when you look at the bank earnings”at 14:11

International equities

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Developed and emerging international equities look attractive; EM benefits from AI-driven commodity demand.

  Garcia says her firm diversifies broadly into developed and emerging international equities, which are less tied to the AI trade. Emerging markets are more directly correlated with commodities, and the AI build-out will require large amounts of commodities and materials, which should keep EMs rising. She sees international exposure as a good diversifier.

  “Those continue to look attractive here, and those tend to be a lot less focused on your AI trade... In your emerging markets, those are gonna be much more directly correlated to commodities”at 14:11

US rates & the Fed

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital Management

  Fed unlikely to hike before the midterms; a December hike is more probable and would give more data.

  Talkington points out the two-year yield has settled and sees no hike before the contentious midterms. If a hike comes, he thinks December is more likely, since that meeting gives the Fed several more readings. He calls the hot inflation commentary discouraging, but says oil and diesel prices could reverse quickly.

  “I don't think we're gonna get a hike before the midterms. We have a meeting in December. So if we get one, I think the higher probability would be in December”at 17:42

Oil & fuels

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  Energy stocks stay a core holding; producers profit without high oil and AI power demand exceeds supply.

  Garcia says energy has been a core holding and is outperforming. Energy companies do not need oil prices to stay high to be profitable, and the AI build-out creates more energy demand than supply. She expects the energy trade to continue whatever happens to energy prices.

  “These energy companies don't need oil prices to stay this high for them to be profitable... There's too much demand compared to the supply that that is gonna continue to be a trade”at 20:22

IPOs, M&A & deal activity

• Ted Pick · Morgan Stanley

  Deal pipeline is strong on pent-up demand and reasonable regulation; IPO windows open if rates stay in check.

  Pick is bullish on the deal pipeline because of pent-up demand and a reasonable regulatory environment, though he says the clock may be ticking. He argues that if interest rates got away from the market because of inflation expectations or geopolitical noise, deal volumes would fall and IPO windows would close or become opportunistic. Right now, he says, the windows are open for the right structure.

  “Now if interest rates were to get away from us... I would expect volumes to go down. The IPO windows are market sensitive... We're thinking that the windows are open for the right structure.”at 22:32

US deficit & government debt

• Kara Murphy · Kestra Investment Management

  Federal interest costs will rise about $500B over a year if rates hold, nearly equal to Medicaid spending.

  She says federal debt is a decades-old, bipartisan issue, with debt growing under nearly every administration since Truman. Debt could grow because interest rates were falling for most of that period, so interest paid on the debt declined even as the debt rose. That changed a couple of years ago and has only gotten worse. If rates simply stay where they are for the next twelve months, the government will pay an incremental $500 billion in interest, almost as much as it spends on Medicaid. She says these numbers do not go away easily.

  “So, for example, if interest rates simply stay where they are for the next twelve months, the government will have to pay an incremental $500,000,000,000 in interest expense.”at 45:26