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Peter Boockvar: latest market views
OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners
Summary
Peter Boockvar is chief investment officer at OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners (formerly Bleakley Financial Group), author of The Boock Report macro newsletter and a CNBC contributor.
Chorus has 7 views from Peter Boockvar across 2 episodes on CNBC Fast Money and CNBC Power Lunch since October 12, 2026.
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US housing is frozen: sales are stuck near 1990s levels and prices are up about 50%, so supply and income growth must catch up.
Boockvar says housing-linked activity, including builders, contractors, brokers and title companies, is about 15 to 18% of US GDP and still contracting. Existing home sales were about 4 million annualized in the mid-1990s, and they are still about 4 million despite a population that is about 80 million larger. Home prices are up about 50% over six years. He says the market is frozen and that only more supply and income growth well above home price appreciation will cure it.
“Thirty years ago, mid nineties, we had existing home sales at about 4,000,000 annualized. Here we are at 80,000,000 people bigger as a population, we're doing 4,000,000.”at 14:49
CNBC Fast Money: Buying Opportunity In AI Pullback?... And Oil’s Next Move 10/19/26 ·
Consumer spending depends on stock and home wealth; a stock market rollover would end the spending boost.
Boockvar argues the wealth effect from stocks and homes is rippling through spending. If the stock market rolls over, coastal bidding wars end. Many people have no mortgage on their homes, and he compares this with China, where people cut spending when house values fall, skipping projects such as a new bathroom. Upper-income spending, AI spending and government spending are the main drivers of growth.
“So those bidding wars on the coasts, if the stock market rolls over, well, that's gonna end. Because the wealth effect obviously is rippling through so much.”at 15:58
CNBC Fast Money: Buying Opportunity In AI Pullback?... And Oil’s Next Move 10/19/26 ·
Short-term rates have topped, but the 10-year could reach 5.5% to 6% over coming years, perhaps via 4.75% first.
Boockvar sees a rising-rate environment. He says the 2020 30-year bond holders are already down about 53%, so the bond market has already been hurt. He thinks short-term rates have topped out. But he would not be surprised if the 10-year reached 5.5% to 6% in the coming years, though growth worries could first push it down to about 4.75%.
“in the short term rates have topped out, but I would not be surprised if five and a half to 6% tenure in the coming years is what we're gonna see.”at 19:14
CNBC Fast Money: Buying Opportunity In AI Pullback?... And Oil’s Next Move 10/19/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
AI capex still rises next year, but a slower rate of change could hurt stock prices if projects get delayed.
Boockvar says he is worried about the AI tech trade, not because of the absolute level of spend. Next year capex will be greater than this year. But if projects do not get greenlit, a slowdown from about $1.2 trillion to about $1 trillion would still be an increase, and the rate of change would be what hurts stock prices.
“I am getting worried about this AI tech trade. Not in terms of the absolute level of spend. ... it's the rate of change that becomes really problematic for stock prices.”at 19:44
CNBC Fast Money: Buying Opportunity In AI Pullback?... And Oil’s Next Move 10/19/26 ·
AI spending and AI stock wealth now drive the US economy, which in turn feeds back into the stock market.
Boockvar says AI is driving the economy, which drives the stock market, which in turn drives the economy again. His evidence is Delta's comments that its high-end customer is driving its business, and that customer owns a lot of AI stocks. The wealth effect from AI names is supporting consumer spending at the top of the income scale.
“We know that AI is driving the economy. That is also driving the stock market, which in turn is driving the economy as well. One of the interesting things was Delta talking about their high end customer that is driving their business.”at 17:35
The key risk to OpenAI and Anthropic is Chinese competition; Micron fell on CXMT's new product.
Boockvar says investors should watch the threat of Chinese competition to OpenAI and Anthropic. He points to Micron's 3% drop on the day as evidence, since investors worry about CXMT and a new product it is launching. He treats China's progress as the main threat to the US frontier labs' position, which matters for the planned Anthropic IPO and the wider AI trade.
“The key that I think people should be paying attention to is what is the threat of China competition to OpenAI and Anthropic.”at 18:24
Tech's gains are not sustainable because AI winners depend on broad economic cash flow to buy their products.
Boockvar argues that everyone breathes the same economic air. The AI winners sell products, such as models and agents, but those products need everyone else to have a healthy business and cash flow to buy them. Tech is doing great, but he does not think that is sustainable. He also notes a 10% correction is normal in most years, and if one comes this time it will likely be tech-driven. The question is whether laggards catch up, winners fall back, or winners keep rising until they don't.
“The winners right now are producing a product, AI models, agents, whatever. Well, you need everyone else to buy it. You need everyone else to have a healthy business... And cash flow that are gonna buy the products that come out of technology.”at 22:16
Shows
- CNBC Fast Money · 1 episode
- CNBC Power Lunch · 1 episode
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