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Michael Every: latest market views
Rabobank
Summary
Michael Every is a Global Strategist at Rabobank Singapore who analyzes the intersection of geopolitics, economics and markets, with over two decades of experience including prior roles at Silk Road Associates, Royal Bank of Canada and Dun & Bradstreet.
Chorus has 29 views from Michael Every across 2 episodes on MacroVoices since September 25, 2026.
What they talk about most
- Oil & fuels · 5
- Middle East & Iran · 4
- Russia & Ukraine · 2
- Tariffs & trade policy · 2
- US global standing & alliances · 2
- US–China relations · 2
- AI infrastructure & data centers · 1
- Power demand & the grid · 1
- US dollar · 1
- US elections & politics · 1
- US tax & spending policy · 1
- Canada, Australia & other developed economies · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
US global standing & alliances
A Congress-constrained US becomes a greatly constrained geopolitical actor, leaving power vacuums for rivals to fill.
If Congress, now Democrat-controlled, won't back the kind of foreign adventures that were normal until recently, the US becomes a greatly constrained geopolitical actor. He argues it is hard enough to win a war in the Middle East, and far harder when fighting a political war at home without congressional or public backing. He frames this as a return to a 1920s-style isolationist US, which lets other powers expand into the space the US vacates.
“that The US is now constrained on foreign policy by a congress that doesn't want the kind of adventures that have been quite normal up until recently, it means that The US is a greatly constrained geopolitical actor”at 3:17
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
A US retreat from the Middle East would leave a power vacuum that Iran or regional rivals could fill.
If the US concludes it is done with the Middle East, the region is effectively told it is on its own. Power abhors a vacuum, so either Iran fills it, aligned with Russia, China and North Korea, which changes the world dramatically, or the region is destabilised by rival powers. Either way, the outcome is costly for America and gives no argument for lower energy prices in the short term.
“...and really tells the region that you're on your own now and power abhors a vacuum. So either Iran could fill that vacuum...”at 4:31
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
Israeli nuclear escalation is an extremely fat-tail risk, not something to lose sleep over now.
Crossing the nuclear red line would be a last-moment, life-or-death option for a small country rather than a great power, with enormous implications for Israel. He cites the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Israel feared annihilation early on and Golda Meir still did not reach for the nuclear option. He does not rule it out, but sees it as a remote tail risk and doubts Israel has tactical nuclear weapons.
“but I have to say I still think that's an extremely fat tail risk and nothing more than that.”at 6:08
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Data center pauses would cede the AI lead to China if the buildout is truly a national security priority.
A wall of money is still going into the sector, and officials are likely to frame data centers as national security in a Sputnik or Manhattan Project style race with China. Yet the inputs (water, copper, chips and electricity) may not have been ready, so some of the buildout may have been washed out anyway. If the buildout is genuinely national security, pausing it throws the lead to China, with unknown long-run consequences.
“is it genuinely national security? And if it is, then The US is throwing that lead away to China, and we don't know what the long run implications are.”at 9:58
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
Abundant cheap power is a necessity that won't go away, likely requiring new nuclear generation.
Whoever has power and electricity has power, and China has lots of it, with widespread recognition that the power needs to be built. Other AI issues such as inequality need separate answers, but if you can provide abundant cheap power, that logically has to come from some new nuclear mechanism. He sees this need for power as a necessity that persists regardless of the AI backlash.
“which as you said, would logically have to come from some new nuclear kind of mechanism, that speaks to me for a necessity which isn't going to go away.”at 11:45
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
Fiscal gridlock may last two years, but Democrat-led spending bills will likely be quite generous.
A credible argument exists that Washington will be in complete gridlock for two years, but that cannot continue indefinitely given debt ceilings. At some point Congress will put forward spending bills, and with Democrats driving them he expects them to be quite generous. It is unclear whether Trump, as a fiscal hawk, would accept them or indulge them, so the fiscal outcome is hard to predict.
“And at some point, spending bills are going to be put forward by Congress. And I think they're going to be quite generous given that, you know, the Democrats will be putting them forward.”at 12:50
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
The dollar's usual geopolitical safe-haven bid is failing as US political uncertainty weighs on it.
Traditionally geopolitical tension sends money back to the dollar, and that held somewhat, but earlier this year it did not work as well because of doubts over the US political framework under Trumpism. Now geopolitical risk is coinciding with the absence of Trumpism, and the market still appears to dislike that combination. He explicitly declines to give an FX forecast, so the conclusion is tentative.
“And now ironically, you could have geopolitical risk coinciding with an absence of potential Trumpism, and the market's still saying we don't like that either.”at 20:27
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
Trump more likely to stage a token Iran action and retreat, though escalation before the new Congress remains possible.
His base case for months had been an Iran escalation after the midterms, before a new Congress arrived, with more forces in place in the region. Now Trump is licking his wounds after a political drubbing, so a token action followed by retreat, the 'taco', is more likely than before. He doubts a retreat would bring energy prices down sustainably, and says continuing the blockade or going home are both bad options, so escalation is not ruled out.
“But there is obviously now, I think, a higher chance than previously that Trump does this taco slash the whole enchilada and says, okay, you know, here's a token action, and then I just retreat.”at 23:46
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
Russia will likely hold out for better terms, making escalation more probable than a Russia-Ukraine deal.
A de-escalation deal needs US backing plus agreement from both Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine, seeing Trump weaker, may want a deal now, but Russia will likely reason that Trump will be even weaker in six months and that a harder bargain is available later. So while any outcome is possible, escalation on that front is more likely, potentially alongside Middle East escalation.
“But Russia almost certainly will look around and say, well, why now? You know, Trump will be even weaker six months from now.”at 26:29
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
Energy prices and refining crack spreads stay high until a real resolution; Middle East peace may not be imminent.
Oil fell sharply in the last couple of days on expectations that Middle East peace is imminent, but he says that may well not be the case. Escalation in the Middle East alongside Russia-Ukraine refinery strikes would keep crack spreads and energy prices high until some resolution. A US pullback would be bullish for crack spreads, since Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries would continue. A Middle East rolling conflict would also support energy prices.
“at which point, yeah, crack spreads stay high, and frankly, so do energy prices until there's some kind of resolution.”at 26:55
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
Removing tariffs would forfeit US reindustrialization leverage and accelerate America's decline as global hegemon.
Removing tariffs would cut government revenue and lower costs in the short term, but it removes the main lever for reindustrialising, since subsidies are just as costly. Without reindustrialisation, the US struggles to sustain a resilient economy and the military-industrial complex needed to be global policeman. Projecting current trends forward, that accelerates America's decline as global hegemon, which is not a painless isolationist exit, and zero-sum resource competition would leave it worse off.
“tariffs are historically, as neomechanicalist history shows, pretty much the only way alongside other aspects of industrial policy that you are going to re industrialize.”at 32:59
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
Trump may drop some tariffs while keeping China ones and offering trading blocs a common external tariff.
He hypothesises a bargain where Trump removes some tariffs but keeps those on China and on transshipment. The same deal would be offered to Europe, which is close to aggressive anti-China tariff legislation, in exchange for lower tariffs between them. This extends the USMCA and Americas approach toward a broader block, which he thinks was a logical endpoint of Trump's grand macro strategy. If it fails, things get messier.
“what I think could be logical, and I'm hypothesizing, is you could see some kind of bargain being struck where Trump says, look. I don't mind removing some tariffs, but I want to keep the ones on China.”at 34:25
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
US global standing & alliances
US military and financial retreat will crumble the post-war order, creating power vacuums and rising international crime.
The post-war world system was built on US military power in World War II and US military and financial power in the Cold War. If the US is deindustrialized, it cannot sustain the military industrial complex needed to keep that role. Once that support goes, the system will crumble, leaving a power vacuum, and international crime rates will soar.
“a core argument of mine that I'm making for years... is that the world system is crumbling... was built by US military power in World War II and US military power and financial power in the Cold War.”at 36:34
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
MAGA has had its day, and traditional Republicanism offers no solutions to current problems.
Michael argues that many people already believe MAGA has had its day. He questions whether traditional Republicanism, the MAGA critics' 'rhino' alternative, has any solutions to where the country is now, and he says it does not. He also notes that no traditional party framework that ignores the link between top-down geopolitics and local politics has all the answers, so something will need to be reinvented.
“You can make a convincing argument, and many people already are that, you know, MAGA has had its day... does traditional republicanism really have any solutions to where we are now? I would argue no.”at 38:05
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
Recent oil price move reflects optimism rather than realism; no clear view of the new trajectory.
Energy prices over the last two days showed how wide the range of outcomes has become after the election. Michael argues there is an enormous amount of optimism rather than realism in what that short-term move has done. No one has a clear view of the new trajectory, and none will for a while, until the new Trump-led policy direction becomes clearer.
“there is an enormous amount of optimism rather than realism in terms of what that short term move has done. And no one right now, and no one will for a while, have a really clear view of what that new trajectory is.”at 41:43
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #557 Michael Every: The Blue Tsunami Lands on Markets... and Geopolitics ·
Hormuz shipping risk and Iranian escalation keep crude flows and oil prices elevated despite Saudi shuttling.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are successfully shuttling more oil through Hormuz, but live firing continues and ships are still being hit. The Saudis are proceeding anyway, so oil is more expensive from a security perspective because of higher transit, insurance and risk costs. Iran is escalating after a one-week US ultimatum and is threatening to strike in the Indian Ocean as well as via the Houthis in the Red Sea. Iranian missiles have already reached Cyprus, so ship-to-ship transfers off Oman could also be hit. Michael therefore sees risk of lower crude flows on top of higher costs.
“the Saudis have been prepared to go ahead with it anyway, which just means that oil is that much more expensive from a security perspective.”at 4:51
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2) ·
A US diesel export ban would backfire, raising crude and fuel prices and causing shortages at home and abroad.
The global energy system is integrated and relies on counterparties, so stopping US diesel exports solves one problem and creates others. The blowback would be more expensive crude, which feeds into higher fuel prices, plus shortages internationally and possibly inside the US. Michael expects the ban to be narrowed to specific countries and supported by further measures such as refinery run mandates or subsidised diesel storage. He is deeply cynical that this integrated system strengthens the US's position relative to China and others. He says a private-sector energy executive would oppose it as a headline measure.
“if you suddenly stop The US exporting diesel, it doesn't just solve one problem. It creates lots of others in equal measure. And the blowback can be more expensive crude”at 7:15
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2) ·
Canada, Australia & other developed economies
Canada's pivot away from the US toward Europe makes no economic sense and would carry severe downside risk.
Canada's high-value industrial exports are deeply integrated with the US, and about 90% of its population lives within a two-hour drive of the border. Its tradable goods are mainly raw materials, which Europe can already buy from Canada without any new trade deal. Europe does not want Canadian cars, trains or jets because it has enough of its own. Disentangling from the US would therefore mean trading more with a block that wants only Canada's raw materials. Michael adds that the US would not accept a Canada drifting toward China or Europe with an open, undefended border, so the downside tail risk is staggering and the upside is unclear.
“Europe can buy those raw materials from Canada right now. There's no need to have any kind of new trading relationship... Europe does not want to buy Canadian cars. Europe does not want to buy Canadian trains.”at 13:38
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2) ·
Russia's jet-powered Iranian-design drones are outpacing Ukrainian interceptors, so Ukraine cannot match Russian strikes.
The drones now striking Ukraine were originally an Iranian design. Russia has improved them and added jet engines, making them much faster than Ukrainian drone interceptors. Russia is hitting Ukraine hard and Ukraine has no matching response at the moment. Michael also suggests these Russian-engined drones may return to Iran to be fired at US, Israeli and other forces in the region, which shows deep Russia–Iran military collaboration.
“The drones, are currently striking Ukraine, are originally an Iranian design. The Russians have improved them and put jet engines on them, and then are much faster than Ukrainian drone interceptors.”at 20:32
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2) ·
Serious national security circles see Xi possibly moving on Taiwan next year, though this is unconfirmed.
Michael says there are serious discussions in national security circles that Xi Jinping is deadly serious about past statements and would consider moving on Taiwan next year. He notes the idea is not new and that no one knows whether it is true. If it happened, the worst case would be a US–China clash in Asia on top of the Ukraine and Middle East wars, which he describes as a small-scale world war. He links this to US weakness: interceptor shortages and limited bunker fuel for the Pacific fleet, which give China home advantage. He frames the US choice as either a deal with China or making a Chinese move strategically unviable.
“That Xi Jinping is deadly serious about past statements he's made and that he would consider moving on Taiwan next year.”at 24:14
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2) ·
The Iran war exposed US shortages of interceptors and Pacific bunker fuel, weakening it for a sustained China fight.
The war against Iran has shown the US does not have enough interceptors. Bunker fuel for the US Pacific fleet is also short, and the US is short of several inputs it would need for a sustained war across the Pacific. China would have home advantage in any such conflict. Michael uses these shortages to explain why Washington would want to avoid the risk of a Taiwan clash, either by negotiating with Beijing or by making a Chinese move strategically unviable.
“the war against Iran has already exposed that we actually don't have enough interceptors... We don't have enough bunker fuel in Hawaii anymore for their Pacific fleet.”at 25:36
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2) ·
Manufacturing & industrial policy
US industrial and military capacity is far weaker than assumed, and it cannot easily match China's shipbuilding.
Michael argues the US had far fewer resources than it believed and did not realise how out of shape it was, like a fit-looking man in his fifties who discovers he cannot keep up. He contrasts this with China's industrial complex, which can build a new ship in five minutes rather than five years. He asks whether the US could take on China in this context, and if not, how it could slow China down. The argument is a broader view that US industrial weakness constrains its strategic options.
“my viewpoint is somewhat different, which is The US already had far fewer resources than it liked to think it did.”at 30:51
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2) ·
Trump's refusal to extend the China trade truce past early January suggests the US sees a coming card to play.
At the last summit the US agreed a trade truce under which tariffs on China are lower than before, and China was not punished as harshly as expected. China asked at this summit for the truce to run through the end of Trump's term, but Trump would only extend it until early January. Michael asks why the US would refuse, and suggests it may expect a shift in its position over the next few months. He speculates that new AI or mineral processing technology could reduce China's leverage, though he admits this is outside his expertise.
“And this time, China asked to have that trade truce extended all the way through to the end of Trump's term. And Trump turned around and said, no. We only want to do it until early January.”at 32:48
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2) ·
Chinese open-source models trail US frontier models by about three to four months because they clone them.
Every argues that much of China's open-source AI performance comes from standing on the shoulders of US models. He says Chinese open models are always three or four months behind the American frontier because they are effectively cloning them, including by using US AI systems through intermediary tools to do tasks. He hedges that he is not an AI expert and does not know whether this holds for all Chinese models. He reads it as an attempt to undermine the US model race because China fears being left behind.
“a lot of the Chinese open source performance has been because they're effectively standing on the shoulders of The US models, that they're always three or four months behind... I don't know whether that's true. It may not be true for all of them.”at 41:32
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2) ·
US may let private AI labs struggle, then seize them on national-security grounds.
Every argues that if AI could deliver a super-intelligence that solves problems, it would be a strategic gain for the US if private AI labs fail. The US cannot afford to fund the buildout with more debt. The model he sketches is that the US lets international capital, including Chinese capital, buy shares in the labs, then the government takes the technology on national-security grounds once it works, as with the Manhattan Project. He says this is not a forecast but a realpolitik reading of the incentives.
“I would actually argue it's a genius strategic move by the Americans to say, look, we can't afford X number of trillion dollars borrowing on top of the deficit we've already got to develop this technology”at 43:08
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2) ·
US will likely bar Chinese open-source AI models, as it did Chinese EVs, soon.
Every points out that Chinese EVs, which record data, are sold in the West but not in America, which he says shows a template of US exclusion of Chinese technology on security grounds. He argues the same logic should extend to Chinese open-source AI models, and he expects that to happen imminently. He frames this as a national-security reaction to a competitor that is 'better' and that the US does not want to have.
“How many can you buy in America? None... Why isn't that gonna be extended to open source stuff from China too imminently”at 48:34
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2) ·
A 90-day US diesel export ban is plausible and was always on the cards.
Every says a potential 90-day US diesel export ban is being discussed, and that some people were surprised by it. He says it has always been on the cards for the same reasons: energy and key commodities are being fought over in zero-sum competition, and the US wants to keep supply at home. He treats this as part of a wider pattern of states restricting the flow of key commodities during rivalry.
“some people are surprised we've got a potential ninety day diesel export ban being discussed. Who thought that wasn't possible? And that's always been on the cards for me too for the same kind of reasons.”at 48:58
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2) ·
Wealth, inequality & billionaires
Exit taxes and unrealised-gains taxes are spreading and will likely be extended, as cash-strapped governments need funds.
Every says many jurisdictions already impose ruinously high exit taxes, and some are adding taxes on unrealised capital gains, so people owe tax each year on assets they have not sold, and half of their holdings can be lost on leaving. He says more countries are adopting this and he expects it to extend because governments are cash-strapped and need money for AI infrastructure, defence and energy stockpiles. He says this is high taxation rather than a formal capital control, but it matters for people with large capital.
“there are many jurisdictions where you already have ruinously high exit taxes... There are more and more countries bringing that in. And I expect that to be extended and extended because governments are so cashed out everywhere.”at 52:47
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2) ·
Iranian tanker attacks and Houthi escalation could push the US to try to topple Iran's regime.
Every says that if Iran is so entrenched that it can cause chaos along supply chains, keeping the Middle East destabilised becomes too painful to sustain. The US would then have to pivot to its main objective, which he describes as flipping Iran like Venezuela to control the key commodity complex. He sees a path where escalation against tankers in the Indian Ocean and Houthi attacks make the diesel export ban insufficient. He does not predict nuclear use and says he does not want it, but he does not rule out tactical strikes on Iran's underground nuclear sites.
“In that case, you have to try and pivot back to your primary objective. Let's flip Iran like Venezuela so I'm sitting pretty in terms of that key commodity complex.”at 56:17
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2) ·
Shows
- MacroVoices · 2 episodes
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