Historic Market Implosion: Bigger Crash Or Rebound Next Week? | Gareth Soloway

Bitcoin

Across the shows: 17 speakers in other episodes, 12 bullish and 5 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gareth Soloway · Verified InvestingUncertain

  Bitcoin's $75,000 level is the make-or-break test; below it heads toward $66-67k, so he waits.

  Bitcoin held up while tech was collapsing until a hack news event broke its back after it lost the 81,000 level. Below that there is no support until $66-67k, so $75,050 is the next test that bulls must see hold. If it breaks, the price revisits the $66-67k zone. He thinks it may get a bounce off $75,050 early next week, but he will sit on the sidelines unless Bitcoin reclaims $81,000. Bitcoin is trading as a tech play, with investors selling everything in panic.

  “Once we get down to $75.05, that is going to be the next test. Like, if you're a bull, you gotta see that hold.”at 23:16

• Gareth Soloway · Verified InvestingBullish

  Bitcoin is much higher over one to two years, with about $160,000 targeted by January 2028.

  Bitcoin has made a higher high after a high, lower high, lower high sequence, which points to a bottom around the $58,000 level. If the outlook is one to two years out, he thinks Bitcoin is much higher, and it may first dip to $66-67k where he would buy with a stop below the low. A trend line from the 2017 bull market high through the 2021 highs has marked every bull market high. Projected forward, that line points to about $160,000 by January 2028.

  “We're looking at upside to, let's say, in January 2028, about a year out, this would be 160,000 ish on Bitcoin.”at 26:00

Alphabet

Across the shows: 49 speakers in other episodes, 38 bullish and 27 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gareth Soloway · Verified InvestingBullish

  Google is a short-term bounce buy; valuation is very attractive despite AI pressure on search ads.

  The chart shows a gap to fill, pivot lows coming up, and an ascending trend line in the current zone. Search ad revenue is probably suffering from AI, but Google is still Google with other avenues such as Waymo. Valuation is very attractive, at least in the short term, and a stabilization in the trade looks likely. He has been accumulating the stock little by little because it is a high-quality name.

  “But it's still Google, and you're getting to levels where valuation is very, very attractive, at least in the short term, you get some sort of stabilization in this trade.”at 5:29

ServiceNow

Across the shows: 9 speakers in other episodes, 7 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gareth Soloway · Verified InvestingBullish

  ServiceNow was annihilated and is a technical bounce buy after a 31% two-day drop.

  ServiceNow fell 31% in just two days and is back at levels it traded at from April to July 2026. Fear is pushing many names to these levels, and he looks for technical bounces to come as panic takes over. He follows the rule of buying when everyone else is panicking, and he sees the same setup in other beaten-down names.

  “ServiceNow got absolutely annihilated. ... this went down just for the last two days, thirty one percent. It's getting into levels where it was trading back in April 2026.”at 5:37

Intel

Across the shows: 15 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 12 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gareth Soloway · Verified InvestingBearish

  Intel will eventually go lower over one to three years, but a 10-20% short-term bounce off $60 is likely.

  Intel's stock got hyped on the AI trade and on US government backing, which led everyone to assume it would get special treatment. The earnings report showed that the backing is not helping, and the stock fell 28.6% in a day, the worst since 1974. Trend lines from August 2025 through a March 2026 pivot low point to continued weakness over one to three years. Over a short horizon, the chart points to a bounce of 10-20% off the $60 level, which he would buy. A 20-year investor could buy it now.

  “If you're shorter, like one to three year horizon, I think Intel will eventually go down.”at 7:41

IonQ

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gareth Soloway · Verified InvestingBullish

  IonQ is a company of the future sitting on major technical support, so he is accumulating it.

  He calls IonQ a supercomputer company and says these are probably companies of the future, regardless of what happens in the near term. The stock sits on major technical support, so he is nibbling and accumulating it as a smaller name in the beaten-down group.

  “you look at a stock like IONQ, which is a supercomputer one, these are probably companies of the future regardless of what happens in the near term, and it's in the major technical support down here.”at 18:36

Oracle

Across the shows: 26 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 23 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gareth Soloway · Verified InvestingBullish

  Oracle's breakout is intact; he bought it on Friday while the trend line holds.

  Oracle broke out on Wednesday on news, ran into resistance and was rejected. He picked it up on Friday because the breakout trend line still holds. Oracle is one of the hated names with a lot of debt that he is starting to nibble on for a relief rally.

  “I picked up a little bit of Oracle here. Oracle had a breakout on Wednesday on news, went up to resistance, got rejected. I picked it up on Friday as long as it holds this breakout trend line.”at 18:36

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 60 speakers in other episodes, 16 bullish and 58 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gareth Soloway · Verified InvestingBearish

  CoreWeave is an over-levered AI name he exited after the bounce and will avoid until clarity.

  CoreWeave tagged major support and bounced off a gap fill and a Fibonacci retracement, and he was in for that bounce but is now out. The debt load is the problem, and much of it is secured rather than unsecured. He calls it the poster child for the do-not-be-this-company type in a scared market. He is watching whether the $51 level holds, but he prefers best-of-breed names such as Google or Oracle, which can return around 15% rather than maybe 3%, and he won't take extra risk for that.

  “Core Weave, I was in for the bounce. I'm out now just because, again, this one, like you're saying, is a little bit of a trickier scenario because of their debt load.”at 20:32

Micron Technology

Across the shows: 16 speakers in other episodes, 12 bullish and 8 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gareth Soloway · Verified InvestingBearish

  Micron is still heading lower as memory shortage ends; he sees $465 within 12-18 months.

  The memory shortage that caught the market off guard has now lasted more than a year, and many new factories are coming online over the next one to two years, including new Micron fabs and China's CXMT. Memory is not proprietary, so supply will catch up with demand. He still thinks Micron is coming down and may buy on the way down, but he expects the stock to return to the $465 area within the next 12 to 18 months. He had called Micron's top around June on his show.

  “Now it's been a year plus of this shortage and factories will be coming online... at some point, I think we're going back to $465 this area right back here. And I think that will be within the next twelve to eighteen months.”at 22:07

US stock market outlook

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Tech-to-defensives rotation was timely a month ago; now rotating back into beaten-down quality names.

  Rotating into defensives like Clorox and Nike made sense a month or two ago, when the AI trade and the SaaSpocalypse software sell-off were fading and names like CrowdStrike bounced hard. Nike gapped down on earnings and has risen almost every day since, not because it is a new great company but because it became oversold while money was pulled out of tech and software. Hedge fund managers do not want to hold cash because they earn nothing there, so money keeps rotating within the market until fear forces it out. He still keeps some defensive exposure but is slowly rotating back into high-quality names that have been beaten up.

  “So again, it's not to say I'm out of defensives. I still have some of that exposure, but I'm slowly rotating back into some of these beaten up names that are high quality names.”at 5:58

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  S&P 500 stays technically bullish while its lower trend line holds, with upside to just above 8,000.

  The S&P has been playing pinball between two long trend lines, one from February 2023 and one from the 2022 bull market high. As long as the lower line holds, that is a viable level and the index has upside to the high end just above 8,000. The equal-weight S&P has rallied strongly off its lows and is outperforming the Nasdaq, which supports the broader index. The key caveat is oil: if the economy is wrecked by high oil rather than oil falling through a deal, the 8,000-plus bullish case is killed.

  “off of these two trend lines. As long as we hold the lower one, to me, that's a viable level. And the S and P has potential upside to the high end, which is just above 8,000.”at 9:54

Gold & precious metals

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Gold could fall to $3,500 within weeks as post-rally buyers exit in fear.

  Gold rallied from about $3,300 in August 2025 to $5,600, and buyers who came in chasing a trade, not as a hedge, are now exiting in fear. That is why gold has not been a hedge in this sell-off. The trend line has broken, and the $3,500 level he flagged in earlier interviews looks increasingly likely. He would not be surprised to see gold at $3,500 in the next few weeks.

  “I would not be surprised to see 3,500 on gold in the next few weeks even.”at 27:26

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  He bought physical silver just below $50 as the start of a long-term position.

  He had said silver would return to $50 when it was above $100, and he got flak for it. Physical is for long-term investing, not trading. The break through $50 took out many stops and flushed out people who got in for the wrong reasons. Silver then returned to former resistance from the 1980 and 2011 highs, which is now support, and he bought physical at around $49.30. He is not sure it is the low, but he sees this as the starting point of his longer-term silver position.

  “I'm not necessarily smart enough to know if this is the low on silver, but for me, this was a starting point where I bought some physical on Friday just below $50.”at 29:03

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  VIX in the mid-20s signals fear taking over; expect violent swings in the market.

  The VIX reached the mid-20s on Friday. At that level, fear is the pervasive emotion that people are trading off of, and that means the swings will be violent. He pairs this with the advice to buy when everyone else is panicking, but only if the chart supports a bounce.

  “Anytime you're in the mid twenties, it's telling you that fear is starting to be the pervasive emotion that people are trading off of, which means the swings are gonna be violent.”at 4:51

Oil & fuels

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Oil above $100 is the key risk; markets rip only if oil falls below about $80.

  Oil tried to break out on Friday in a wedge pattern that could have pointed to $120 a barrel, but it sold off into the close and settled back below the level. Oil has been above $100 since February. The Iran war was expected to last a week, then a month, and has now dragged on for a quarter with no deal. Oil is now breaking the consumer and inflation, and CapEx is starting to look weak, so further rises hurt the economy and the AI trade. Oil needs to fall below $80, ideally to $70-80, through a deal that reopens flows rather than through economic destruction, to restore the rally. Oil at 85-90 would help a little but not be sustainable.

  “The key here is this, if oil goes up more, it's already breaking the consumer. It's now the AI trade that's starting to break, CapEx starting to look weak. If oil falls, this market will rip, but you've gotta get oil to fall to save the economy here.”at 11:29

US rates & the Fed

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Fed is boxed in; if oil stays near $90-100 into December, it will have to hike.

  If oil stays around $100 or $90 a barrel in December, the Fed is probably in a box and will have to hike to combat inflation. But hiking pressures the economy, which eventually brings oil down anyway. There are two possible endings: oil falls because a deal reopens flows, or oil falls because the economy gets wrecked. The second is what investors have to worry about, because it kills the bullish S&P case.

  “And I think the Fed is probably in a box right now that if oil's still around a 100 or $90 a barrel in December, they're going to have to hike.”at 13:31

US elections & politics

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Midterms matter little for markets; Democratic gains are priced in and gridlock is historically fine.

  Prediction-market odds already favor Democrats taking over, so the result is largely expected. In Brazil the market had bought on expectations of a Bolsonaro win and was caught off guard when the opposite happened, but in the US that surprise is less likely. Gridlock means nothing gets done, and markets historically do not mind that because nothing bad can get done either. He thinks the midterm result is not the bigger issue.

  “Here in The US, we already see that the odds are favoring the Democrats taking over. In addition, it's basically gonna be gridlock. Right? And the markets historically don't mind gridlock because nothing gets done.”at 15:42

Middle East & Iran

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Post-midterm US military action against Iran is a bigger market risk than the election itself.

  Once the midterms pass with no further elections for two years, the president may have less reason to hold back on Iran, such as bombing it or taking Kharg Island, which could spike oil in the near term. Trump wants his legacy to be that he did not keep oil high for long. Even if oil spikes to $120 for a month, it will not be remembered if oil falls to $50-70 within months. That is why he is more focused on what happens with Iran after the midterms.

  “I think the bigger question is once those midterms are over, does the president have any incentive not to just go nuts and go and let's say bomb Iran, you know, maybe take over Karg Island”at 16:12

US consumer

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  About 80% of Americans already feel in recession; $120 oil would break consumers further.

  Around 80% of the US public essentially feels they are already in a recession. Diesel prices are already at all-time highs, and if $120 oil becomes the new normal, that feeds into inflation. People who already feel in recession would then face higher inflation on top, and he says that breaks everything. He compares this with 2008, when oil reached $146 just before the financial crisis.

  “you have 80% of The US public essentially feeling like they're already in a recession. And if oil is... If the new normal is a $120 a barrel, what are diesel prices, which are already basically at all time highs at?”at 17:26

US Treasuries & yields

• Gareth Soloway · Verified Investing

  Agrees 10-year yields have peaked and will fall, but sideways yields are best for stocks.

  Yields have peaked and should go lower from here. Yet the best case for stocks is yields moving sideways or even slightly higher with little volatility. The market is worried about rates rising too high, US and global debt, and a collapse in yields signals a recession, which is also bad for stocks. Sideways yields would give the Fed room to be neither too hawkish nor too dovish and could get the S&P to 8,000 in the short term, though the economy is weakening in its underbelly and the market is headed lower after that.

  “I think at this point, that's the case, and I'm expecting yields to go lower from here.”at 29:42