Treasury Secretary Bessent: ‘F’ the Iranian Leadership 11/13/26

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 137 speakers in other episodes, 125 bullish and 95 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tae Kim · Key Context (Substack)Bullish

  Nvidia stays successful under a new CEO if it retains its deep bench; Kress is not the permanent pick.

  Kim says no one can replace Jensen Huang, but three or four people could do what he does, so his earlier view that Nvidia would be lost without him has changed. He calls CFO Colette Kress excellent at finances and supply chain but not the right permanent CEO, because a disruptive, innovation-driven company needs a leader with deeper technical expertise. He favors Arm CEO Renee Haas, a former Nvidia executive whom staff liked working for, with strong public-facing skills and a grasp of technology trends. He also names interim candidate Ian Buck. He argues Nvidia keeps succeeding if the new CEO retains the top bench, including Kress, Buck and GPU engineering head Jonah Alben.

  “But if the CEO retains the top bench, the deep bench that they have, I think NVIDIA will continue to be successful.”at 14:21

• Tae Kim · Key Context (Substack)Bullish

  Nvidia stock is very cheap at about 11x earnings, so it works even with slower growth.

  Kim argues Nvidia trades at about 11 times earnings, its cheapest level in fifteen years. He says the stock works even if next year's roughly 70% revenue growth is haircut to 40-50%, because the shares have already been beaten down so much.

  “And the stock is so cheap right now. It's 11 times. It's the cheapest it's ever been in fifteen years. And even if you haircut the 70% revenue growth next year to say 50 to 40%, the stock works because it's been beaten down so much.”at 14:32

• Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the TreasuryBearish

  Nvidia's controls look weak if it sold to shell companies; those responsible should be held accountable.

  Bessent says the real question is whether Nvidia knew its client and whether it made a robust effort to prevent leakage to what were obviously pass-through shell companies. If it was happening, the company did not have robust controls. He says the general counsel seemed very involved and should have done more oversight rather than haranguing. He does not claim Jensen Huang knew, and he expects the board to investigate. He says anyone at the company responsible should be held accountable.

  “I'm not gonna speculate on what the repercussions would be, but let's just say if this was happening, then there were not robust controls at the company.”at 25:10

Megaspeed

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the TreasuryBearish

  Treasury, USTR and State wanted Megaspeed on the Entity List for months; Commerce has held it up.

  Bessent says Treasury, USTR and State had favored putting Megaspeed on the Entity List for months, and his deputy had pushed for it at the deputy level. Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security holds the decision, so the delay sits with Commerce. He declined to say whether Commerce's internal processes or Commerce Secretary Lutnick's views were the cause.

  “Treasury, [USTR], and state. They were in favor of putting Mega Speed on the Entity List for months, but Commerce has the pin.”at 19:30

US–China AI & chip race

• Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury

  Selling chips above H100 to China gives Beijing an advantage; any leakage hurts US firms and must stop.

  Bessent says President Trump drew a clear line that China should not receive Nvidia chips above the H100. Leakage around that line is frustrating because it hurts US companies and gives China an advantage in the AI race. He argues the H100 line is not a real advantage for China: Huawei can approximate H100 performance by combining chips, but the result is far less efficient and uses much more electricity. He says the authorities needed to enforce the controls already exist and only need to be implemented.

  “president Trump made it very clear that China should not receive any NVIDIA chips above [H100s]. And so any leakage is very frustrating because it hurts our great companies, and the AI race gives the Chinese an advantage.”at 20:19

US growth & recession risk

• Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury

  The US economy is very strong, with no financial stability alarm bells going off.

  Bessent cites 3.4% GDP growth last quarter and an Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate of 3.5% for the current quarter. He points to a blowout jobs report, manufacturing returning to the US, and job growth across small and large businesses. He says he has spent much of his career on financial stability and sees nothing setting off alarm bells, which he says is why he is confident the economy is in very good shape.

  “The underlying economy is very strong. We had 3.4% growth last quarter.”at 28:56

Middle East & Iran

• Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury

  Blockade and sanctions have cut off Iran's oil revenue; the regime is isolated and will seek a deal.

  Bessent says the US is squeezing the Iranian regime. Iran has no oil on the water and no revenue, and the US has cut it off. He argues sanctions alone don't work; they worked only after a six-week kinetic war that destroyed Iran's navy, air force and much of its missiles and drones, and reduced its ability to rebuild by 85-90%. A naval blockade then stopped shipments in and out, and Operation Economic Outcast since August has isolated the regime with Gulf partner cooperation. The US has sanctioned three banks and cut most airline routes. He says Iran is in crisis, with inflation and gas shortage warnings, and will eventually want a deal, though he says President Trump does not think one is needed now. He adds that the war was worth it.

  “we are squeezing the regime. I think that they are panicked in what they're seeing. For the first time, Becky, since they began producing oil, they have no oil on the water. They have no revenues, and we have cut them off.”at 30:18

US inflation

• Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury

  Core inflation is under control; current price pressure is an energy supply shock that will pass.

  Bessent says core inflation remains quite under control. The current inflation pressure is an energy shock from the Iran conflict, with short-term supply constraints. He cites oil down $20 this month, gasoline back below $4 and diesel down 10%. He expects the energy shock to pass as oil supply improves, which is why the Fed should not respond to it with rate hikes.

  “core inflation remains quite under control. It's an energy shock, and we'll get to the other side of it.”at 33:54

Oil & fuels

• Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury

  The oil shock is temporary; the market will be better supplied after the Iran conflict as output rises.

  Bessent says the current oil price spike is supply-constrained and short term. He argues the oil market will be even better supplied once the conflict is over. He cites record production in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and expects Venezuela's output to return to over a million barrels a day within a few years. He also points to oil down $20 this month, gasoline back below $4 and diesel down 10%, and says US energy dominance makes the US an energy superpower.

  “I think the oil market's going to be even better supplied on the other side of this. You see that Saudi production's hitting records, UAE production is hitting records, Venezuela, in a few years, [will] be back up to over a million barrels a day.”at 34:17

US rates & the Fed

• Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury

  The Fed should not hike into an energy supply shock; the ECB's 2008 hike is the cautionary example.

  Bessent argues the Fed should recognize the current price spike as an energy supply shock caused by the Iran conflict. He cites the ECB hiking rates into the oil spike to $147 in summer 2008, which he calls one of the worst central bank mistakes, as it went into the financial crisis. He says October's CPI print is noisy, and with gasoline back below $4, crude down $20 and diesel down 10%, the next print will likely be benign. The Fed should look forward rather than in the rearview mirror. He notes the same Fed cut three times over the same period last year, so a dramatic reversal based on an energy shock would be wrong. He says he will not tell the Fed what to do, only that it should keep an open mind.

  “I think that the Fed should understand that this is an energy supply shock... to hike too much into an energy supply shock when it's coming down, these are very noisy numbers.”at 35:08

US Treasuries & yields

• Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury

  Ten-year yield above 5%, but auctions are strongest in twenty years; no bond market stress.

  Bessent acknowledges the ten-year Treasury yield is above 5%, but argues demand is strong: the Treasury has had four of the strongest bond auctions in the past twenty years. He pairs this with a well-bid dollar, a strong economy and new equity highs, and says the market is resilient and not heading toward a 2008-style crash.

  “At Treasury, the ten year is above 5%, but we've had four of the strongest bond auctions in the past twenty years.”at 36:22

Tariffs & trade policy

• Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury

  After the Supreme Court ruling, USTR's Section 301 probes are reconstituting tariffs, and favorable trade deals will be kept.

  Asked whether the tariff regime will continue after January, Bessent argues the administration is rebuilding tariffs after the Supreme Court decision. He credits USTR Ambassador Jamison Greer, whose deliberate methodology in the Section 301 investigations is reconstituting many tariffs. He calls the existing trade deals fantastically favorable to the US and says he thinks the administration will stick with them. He is also optimistic about getting trade deals with Canada and Mexico. The support is mostly process description and assertion, with no figures, so the view is a stated position rather than a detailed case.

  “We are seeing many tariffs reconstituted... We have a series of trade deals that are fantastically favorable for The United States. And, you know, I think that we will stick with those.”at 39:18