AI Jitters, NYC’s Quest to Delay Anthropic IPO 10/15/26

Anthropic

Across the shows: 38 speakers in other episodes, 18 bullish and 38 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Mark Levine · New York City Office of the ComptrollerBearish

  Anthropic admits it builds technology posing existential risk without having solved the safety problem.

  Levine argues that Anthropic has acknowledged that it is building a technology that poses an existential risk. He notes that the admission is in the company's S-1 filing and says Anthropic does not claim to have solved that problem. He uses this to argue for federal AI regulation and against an IPO that he says will distract the company from safety. This is a teaser excerpt, and the full case may appear later in the episode.

  “By their own admission, they're building a technology which poses an existential risk. Those are not my words. They're reportedly in the s one. They do not claim to have solved that problem.”at 1:45

• Mark Levine · New York City Office of the ComptrollerUncertain

  Anthropic should delay its IPO because going public will distract it from safety work and add growth pressure.

  Levine argues Anthropic's own S-1 says it is building technology that poses an existential risk and that it has not solved that problem. An IPO is an all-consuming process that will distract leadership from safety work. Once public, the company faces pressure for growth and profits that will push against safety. Competitive pressure to rush products to market, both domestically and from China, is greater for a public company. Levine's pension funds track the indexes with over $120 billion in passive funds, and those indexes will rush Anthropic in with no seasoning period. He therefore sees the pension funds as future shareholders and wants more transparency and guardrails first. The fund's current private stake is under $10 million, and he expects to be a much larger, activist shareholder.

  “This will undoubtedly distract them from the safety work. Once they are then public, they are gonna have new pressures on growth and profits that are gonna push against the safety work.”at 40:24

US entitlements

• Greg Fleming · Rockefeller Capital Management

  Social Security must be reformed, likely by raising the retirement age, through a bipartisan commission; a 22% cut won't happen.

  Fleming argues that entitlements have to be reformed to get spending under control, and that the reform has to be bipartisan. He says a 22% automatic Social Security cut scheduled for about 2032 will not be allowed politically. He expects the only realistic fix is raising the retirement age, as France is doing, because people live longer. He also says means-testing Social Security would not raise enough money, and that a bipartisan Social Security reform commission should be created. He acknowledges that the math won't be solved by small measures.

  “A 22% cut is not going to fly politically. What will happen? Well, I think the only thing that can happen in Social Security is that... at some point, you're gonna push the age out, and that's gonna make a big difference.”at 34:42

• Greg Fleming · Rockefeller Capital Management

  Entitlement spending growth must be slowed; a bipartisan Social Security reform commission would spark a bond-market rally.

  The US spending problem is on the spending side, and Social Security and the other entitlements are the core of it. Fleming argues a bipartisan Social Security reform commission should do the work politicians won't do on air, and that the speed of entitlement spending growth has to be reined in. He says that once this happens, the bond market will react positively. He acknowledges it is politically costly, with a likely negative poll reaction for whichever party is in power. He also argues the economy can keep growing alongside this reform.

  “And by the way, it's not just Social Security. It's the other entitlements have got to be... The speed of increase has to be reined into. I mean... And as soon as you do that, you'll have positive reaction in bond market”at 35:34

US stock market outlook

• Greg Fleming · Rockefeller Capital Management

  Stock leadership has narrowed; only about 20% of stocks are near highs, so the market needs broadening.

  Fleming says the market enters this stage after three years of strong performance, which is typical late in a cycle, and that jitters are increasing. Leadership has narrowed further, with about 80% of stocks more than 10% below their highs and the median stock 17% off its high. He worries that the group of stocks doing well keeps shrinking, which makes people uneasy. He thinks broadening out would need rates to settle first, and that would let other sectors, currently under pressure, recover.

  “We're later in the cycle... It's narrower now. A statistic I heard the other day is that 80% of stocks are 10% off their highs, and the median stock is 17% off its high.”at 23:23

US growth & recession risk

• Greg Fleming · Rockefeller Capital Management

  Strong 4% growth lets the economy handle deficits and higher rates; he would welcome that growth.

  Fleming notes that the Atlanta Fed is tracking about 4% growth in the third quarter. He accepts that rates may be rising because the economy is growing strongly, saying that is a positive reason for higher yields. He argues that the US may be unique in being able to grow fast enough to handle its deficit, and that 4% sustained growth would help a lot. He explicitly contrasts this healthy-growth rate increase with rate rises driven by overheating or inflation.

  “So you have one positive reason for higher rates... if rates are going up because the economy is at a 4% sustainable growth rate, we'll take that.”at 25:45

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Greg Fleming · Rockefeller Capital Management

  The AI buildout depends on low rates; higher rates would make its leverage-funded spending harder to sustain.

  Fleming says the relationship between rates and the AI buildout is circular. If rates are lower, the AI buildout can keep going. If rates rise, the market will ask whether it can keep going so fast, because it cannot be financed on leverage forever. He argues that if the 10-year yield settles around 4.5%-5.25%, the investment cycle could continue without excessive leverage, which is a sweet spot. He also mentions AI-driven productivity as a possible support for the economy.

  “It's just chicken and egg thing though. If rates are lower, then it means the AI build out can continue. If rates go up, it means, oh my gosh, maybe not so fast. We can't do all this on the leverage.”at 26:03

US Treasuries & yields

• Greg Fleming · Rockefeller Capital Management

  A 10-year yield settling around 4.5%-5.25% would be a positive; drifting toward 6% would create problems.

  Fleming says the sharp yield move looks partly like a rush to safety and partly covering of trades, and that rates may be resetting. He argues the market needs rates to settle so investors can see where they will be, which would let the rest of the market broaden out beyond AI. Rates are rising partly from inflation pressure in energy, partly from deficit concerns, and partly from strong growth, with the Atlanta Fed tracking about 4% third-quarter growth. He prefers that rates settle around 4.5%-5.25%, with AI-driven productivity possibly helping. If the 10-year drifts toward 6%, he expects more problems across the economy. His view is conditional and he hedges on where it will settle.

  “If it ends up settling, you know, for... Because the economy is not overheating, because inflation starts to, you know, be tamed a little more... and it settles at four and a half to five and a quarter, I think that would be a real positive.”at 26:52

US deficit & government debt

• Greg Fleming · Rockefeller Capital Management

  The deficit's rising rate, not its level, is the concern; slowing it would help bonds a lot.

  Fleming says the deficit is becoming a bigger issue for the bond market and is one of three reasons rates rose, alongside inflation and growth. He does not expect surpluses or debt reduction. He wants the deficit as a share of GDP to start falling, from about 3% of GDP as the stated goal, and says the bond market would respond very well. He also argues that US growth near 4% could make current deficit levels more manageable, and that this is unusual among economies. The underlying cause he identifies is spending: spending as a share of GDP used to be 19-20%.

  “I'm not asking them to run surpluses and start to reduce it. Just start to reduce the rate of the deficit... the bond market would respond enormously well to that.”at 27:45

Wealth, inequality & billionaires

• Greg Fleming · Rockefeller Capital Management

  Wealth taxes on billionaires don't raise the revenue politicians promise, so better revenue options are needed.

  Fleming acknowledges concern about the concentration of wealth and people feeling left behind, which he says is a real issue that tax policy should address. But he argues that history shows wealth taxes on billionaires do not raise the amount of revenue their proponents claim. He thinks there are better ways to raise revenue, though he does not specify them, and says the spending side is the real problem.

  “You won't get it from billionaires or corporations. I think history says that wealth taxes on billionaires don't raise the level of revenue that they talk about. So I think there are better ways to do it.”at 31:53

Venture capital & startups

• Greg Fleming · Rockefeller Capital Management

  US entrepreneurship is thriving, with 6.2 million new businesses this year, aided by deregulation.

  Fleming cites 6.2 million new US businesses this year as evidence of a strong entrepreneurial engine. He says it has never been easier to be an entrepreneur in the US, since founders can get funding for an idea, move to venture capital, and go all the way to an IPO. He attributes much of this to the pro-business environment and to deregulation over the last couple of years, which he calls a significant driver of business formation.

  “I attribute a lot of that to it... the deregulation that's taken place in the last couple of years has been a significant driver of business [formation].”at 32:53

AI regulation & safety

• Mark Levine · New York City Office of the Comptroller

  The US needs binding federal AI regulation, like an FDA for drugs; the current White House memo is toothless.

  Levine argues that the federal government has shown no leadership on AI, and the only current measure is a nonbinding White House memo with no enforcement mechanism and no timeline. He wants an FDA-style regulator for new AI technologies, modeled on the one for prescription drugs. He says the market is effectively a duopoly at the frontier, with OpenAI having already postponed its IPO and Anthropic rushing toward its own. The first step, in his view, is to get those two companies' safety under control. Investors need to know the tripwires, meaning the capability thresholds for cyber, bio and exfiltration risks, and the governance structure that can halt a deployment despite competitive pressure.

  “We absolutely need federal regulation. We need an FDA that we have for prescription drugs for these new technologies. What we have now is a nonbinding White House memo with no enforcement mechanism and no timeline.”at 44:02