Top Stock Ideas, Growing U.S. Debt, AI & The Restaurant Industry 10/16/26

Oracle

Across the shows: 19 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 15 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBearish

  Oracle carries about $160B of debt, which makes it a riskier AI-buildout name than chip makers.

  Stephanie warns against lumping Oracle and CoreWeave together with the cash-generating chip names because they carry heavy debt, including roughly $160B at Oracle. She does not own them. The implied concern is that the debt load ties their AI-buildout exposure to financing risk.

  “it would be very careful to lump in CoreWeave and Oracle, which have huge debt, huge, 50,000,000,000 at CoreWeave, a 160,000,000,000 at Oracle.”at 6:30

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 22 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 22 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBearish

  CoreWeave carries about $50B of debt, putting it in a different risk category from the cash-rich chip makers.

  She says CoreWeave has huge debt, about $50B, and that it should not be grouped with Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron, which generate large free cash flow. The contrast implies CoreWeave's AI-infrastructure financing is a materially riskier position.

  “It would be very careful to lump in CoreWeave and Oracle, which have huge debt, huge, 50,000,000,000 at CoreWeave.”at 6:30

Broadcom

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Broadcom is a buy: it generates about $14B of cash a quarter and is not debt-laden like CoreWeave or Oracle.

  Broadcom is one of the three chip names she owns and is not in the same debt category as CoreWeave or Oracle. It generates about $14B in cash per quarter. The stock has been pulling back with the chip group, which she sees as a buying opportunity.

  “And Broadcom, they generate 14,000,000,000 a quarter in cash. ... I would absolutely be inclined to be buying those because they've been pulling back as well with the rest of the group.”at 6:44

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 36 speakers in other episodes, 29 bullish and 10 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Nvidia has strong free cash flow and no debt problem, unlike CoreWeave and Oracle; she is buying.

  She says investors shouldn't lump CoreWeave and Oracle, which carry heavy debt (about $50B and $160B), together with Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron. Nvidia generated $48B in cash last quarter and is expected to produce about $300B in free cash flow next year. She owns the stock and would buy it on the pullback alongside the group.

  “That is not the case at NVIDIA, Broadcom, or Micron, the three names that I own. I would absolutely be inclined to be buying those because they've been pulling back as well with the rest of the group.”at 6:44

Micron Technology

Across the shows: 13 speakers in other episodes, 11 bullish and 5 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Micron has a phenomenal balance sheet after cutting debt 63%, and she is buying the pullback.

  Micron is one of her three holdings. She cites a phenomenal balance sheet, with debt cut by 63% year over year to about $5B. Like the other chip names, the stock has pulled back with the group, which she sees as a chance to buy.

  “Micron, I mean, they have a phenomenal balance sheet. They've reduced their debt to... By 63% year over year to 5,000,000,000.”at 6:56

Phillips 66

• Mary Ann Bartels · Sanctuary WealthBullish

  Phillips 66 is a buy: it looks less parabolic than other refiners while refining capacity is short.

  When Kelly Evans pointed out that refiners are trading at high, parabolic levels, Bartels said Phillips 66 looks less parabolic than the rest. The US doesn't have enough refining capacity, and as long as the high-energy environment lasts, refiners should keep benefiting.

  “I think Phillips sixty six looks less parabolic. We just don't have enough refining capacity, and as long as we stay in this environment,”at 10:38

SLB

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  SLB is her favored oil services name: it benefits from high oil prices and its technology cuts drilling costs.

  Oil services companies benefit significantly from higher oil prices. She prefers SLB because of its technology, which makes customers more productive and lowers the cost of drilling wells. She favors it over the broader energy group.

  “SLB is the name I like. I like the oil services companies. They do benefit significantly from higher oil prices, but I like what they're doing in terms of technology and for their customers, making them more productive, giving them lower cost to drill.”at 10:57

EQT

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Natural gas is the long-term winner from data center power demand, and EQT is a play on it.

  She expects natural gas to be the long-term winner from the data center buildout because it is where the power will come from. The US has plenty of natural gas but not enough pipelines to move it, so investing in pipeline and supply infrastructure is the place to be, and she likes EQT for that.

  “I also like EQT because I think natural gas is the long term winner in terms of the data center build out, and that's where we're gonna get the power. We have plenty of natural gas. We just don't have enough pipelines.”at 11:04

UnitedHealth Group

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  UnitedHealth is a buy: a 16% earnings beat, about 21% revenue growth, and CEO share purchases.

  She bought UnitedHealth after a strong quarter that beat earnings by 16%, with revenue expected to grow 20-21% this year. The returning CEO bought $25M of stock in May of last year, and the stock has risen 37% since. It is still well below its highs, and she thinks he is the right person to fix the company's problems.

  “They had a really good quarter, beat earnings by 16%. They're gonna see revenues up 20%... 21% this year. The CEO has returned to the company from a year ago, bought $25,000,000 of stock back in May of last year.”at 12:35

The Estée Lauder Companies

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Estée Lauder's margin recovery from 7.3% toward a 15% peak gives it substantial earnings power; she is buying.

  The stock is down 71% from January 2022. The new CEO's plan, Beauty Reimagined, focuses on innovation, digital execution and profitability. Organic growth has started to accelerate, to 5%, and operating margins are still depressed at about 7.3%, against a prior peak of 15%. If margins recover, earnings power is substantial. The company lost its way by relying on department stores, missing digital and having a poor supply chain, but the new CEO is executing.

  “What I really love is operating margins are still depressed. That's my favorite kind of story, right? Organic growth is 5%, operating margins are running at about 7.3%, but prior peak was 15%. So the earnings power, if they can get the operating margins up, substantial.”at 25:57

Starbucks

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Starbucks' turnaround is in the fourth or fifth inning; margins still have room to recover to prior peaks.

  She started buying in December because CEO Brian Niccol has a strong record from Chipotle and is executing the turnaround. Same-store sales grew 7.8% last quarter, versus negative mid-single digits across last year. Earnings are recovering, but operating margins are still depressed at 10.5%, against a prior peak of 18%. She added after the stock fell 6% on Chipotle takeover rumors, which she sees as a chance to buy more.

  “think you're in the fourth or fifth inning of this turn. Same store sales last quarter grew 7.8% versus pretty much all of last year, negative mid single digits. ... operating margins are still very depressed at 10.5%. Prior peak was 18%.”at 27:42

Toast

• Tyler Florence · Miller & LuxBullish

  Toast's IQ AI agent helps restaurants plan menus, orders and staffing without disrupting service.

  Florence, who uses Toast as his point-of-sale provider, says its integrated Toast IQ agent goes beyond search. It analyses last night's and last week's performance, anticipates slow service from weather or a downturn, and helps restaurants order and schedule smarter. He calls it 'mind blowing technology' that is 'basically your business partner in your pocket' and says it does this without interrupting service. His view rests on the product's described functions, with no adoption or financial figures given.

  “Right now, Toast, which is our point of sale service, they have a really fully integrated agent called Toast IQ. This is mind blowing technology because it's basically your business partner in your pocket.”at 42:58

Consumer & retail

• Tyler Florence · Miller & Lux

  Restaurant margins are thin, so every cost and minute must be managed without hurting hospitality.

  Florence says restaurants run on 'minutes and nickels', with margins of roughly 8% to 12% at best. He argues the goal is to watch every element of the business while still delivering great food and hospitality. Operators therefore have to be business-savvy as well as culinary. The argument is backed by his own experience running restaurants, not by industry-wide data.

  “Restaurants are about minutes and nickels, and I think with margins that kind of hover somewhere between eight to 12%, if you're lucky, I think watching every single element of your business without sacrificing one second of hospitality, I think is the real goal.”at 38:28

• Tyler Florence · Miller & Lux

  AI-driven workers in San Francisco are bringing strong foot traffic to his restaurants.

  Florence says OpenAI has taken over 500,000 square feet of office space in one of the four Uber towers near the Chase Center, where his steakhouse is located. He says this brings 'really great foot traffic' into the restaurant, and the customers are sophisticated and savvy. He ties the AI boom to local restaurant demand, though he gives no revenue figures and the link is partly anecdotal.

  “We share campus with OpenAI. They've taken over 500,000 square feet of office space in one of the four Uber towers in front of the Chase Center, And so we're seeing lots of really great foot traffic that walks into the restaurant”at 41:40

• Tyler Florence · Miller & Lux

  High-end and ultra-luxury dining is strong, though that segment faces headwinds.

  Florence says his restaurants had their best year since 2019 and are 'trading up' as diners choose better meals rather than trading down. He describes a very bullish market for high-end dining and ultra-luxury experiences. He qualifies this by saying that is also the segment where he is seeing the most headwinds. His evidence is his own sales performance, which he links to the wider luxury segment.

  “We're seeing a very bullish market when it comes to high end dining and not just luxury, but ultra luxury experiences, and that's the market we're finding a lot of headwind in.”at 42:36

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Mary Ann Bartels · Sanctuary Wealth

  Recent AI-debt stress is isolated, not contagion; she stays with the tech trade.

  Asked whether CoreWeave is the canary in the coal mine, she compares the moment to 1997-98, when the Thai baht crisis, LTCM and the Russia debt crisis hit and the tech bubble still followed. She sees these as isolated situations, not a systemic event or contagion, and notes the Magnificent Seven just hit a record all-time high. She is staying with the tech trade.

  “I think these are isolated situations. I don't think we have contagions. I'm not seeing a systemic event, and this is all happening as the mag seven just recently hit a record all time high.”at 3:02

AI chips & semiconductors

• Mary Ann Bartels · Sanctuary Wealth

  Semiconductors are oversold and cheap at about 14 times forward earnings; she is buying them.

  Semis have been hit, are oversold and have good support, and are participating in the tech trade. Looking at the industry group's forward valuation, she says it trades below market multiples at about 14 times, so she is a buyer rather than a holder. She says the market breadth has narrowed but that this won't stop the market from moving higher.

  “They've been hit. They're oversold. They're in good support. ... I'm a buyer. Their valuations are cheap.”at 3:13

US growth & recession risk

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Growth, not deficits, is the main reason yields are higher; the economy is holding up well.

  She says the deficit, at about 6% of GDP, is a high number, but the main driver of higher yields is better economic growth. Evidence: the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker at 3.6%, retail sales excluding gasoline up 5.1% this week, historically low weekly jobless claims, and industrial production well above expectations. Tech had a bad week, but the rotation reflects a weak tech sector rather than a collapsing economy.

  “I think the most important reason why yields are higher is because the growth in the economy is better. ... the economy is holding up very well.”at 5:42

Banks

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Banks are a wonderful place to invest after a selloff, since results beyond capital markets and M&A were good.

  Bank stocks sold off, and outside of capital markets and M&A, which were expected to be soft, the quarter's numbers were pretty good. Stephanie sees the selloff as a chance to buy, and she says there are other attractive places to put money besides tech.

  “I think the banks are a wonderful place right now because they sold off. And by and large, the numbers were pretty good out... Outside of capital markets and m and a, which we all expected to be soft, but everything else was pretty good.”at 7:21

Software & SaaS

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Software stocks are still down year to date after a rally, leaving opportunities; ServiceNow and IBM stand out.

  Despite a recent rally, many software stocks are still down year to date, which she sees as an opportunity. She names ServiceNow and IBM, with IBM reporting next week, as examples to look at. The reasoning is mainly the price weakness and the upcoming results.

  “I still think there are opportunities in software because the software stocks are still down year... Many of them down year to date, even though they've had a nice rally. ServiceNow comes to mind. IBM comes to mind.”at 7:21

US inflation

• Mary Ann Bartels · Sanctuary Wealth

  Current inflation is a profit tailwind because companies are passing higher prices through.

  She calls this the 'inflation boost.' Recent PPI and CPI data are very correlated with corporate profits. When companies can raise prices and pass them through, revenues and earnings grow, and she says the economy is in that phase now. This is why she thinks stocks are still a buy despite higher rates.

  “I call it the inflation boost. ... PPI is very corporate... correlated to corporate profits. And when companies are able to raise their prices and pass that price through, their revenues and their earnings grow.”at 8:41

US stock market outlook

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  The S&P 500 offers about 7.7% long-term total return after multiple contraction from 22x to 19x.

  The S&P 500 forward P/E has contracted from 22 times in January to about 19 times, and many sectors trade well below 19 times forward estimates. This makes equities more attractive, with a long-term total return of 7.7%. Bonds, by comparison, are down about 5% this year, and her colleague gives a return of about 3% for bonds.

  “we've already seen multiple contraction year to date in equities, which makes them even more attractive. We went from 22 times in January to 19 times now... So the long term total return in the S and P 500 is 7.7%.”at 9:39

Oil & fuels

• Mary Ann Bartels · Sanctuary Wealth

  Higher energy prices are a new regime that favors energy stocks, which should keep leading earnings.

  She argues the market has entered a new regime of higher energy prices that investors have to get used to. Energy stocks are supposed to post the best earnings this quarter, and they had the best earnings last quarter, so she sees energy as a sector to own.

  “I just think we're in a new regime of higher higher energy prices, and it's just something that we have to get used to, but it's great for the energy stocks. And they're supposed to have the best earnings in the quarter.”at 10:15

Pharma & biotech

• Mary Ann Bartels · Sanctuary Wealth

  Health care is bottoming on a relative basis; she likes biotech and expects a recovery next year.

  Health care has been a laggard on a relative basis and has not led the market, but she sees early signs of a bottom and of relative-price improvement. She says her firm has liked biotech. Although the sector's ETF is at record highs, she calls it a good buy at a time when it trails the market, and says the payoff is probably a play for next year rather than this year.

  “We've liked the biotech space, but we are seeing some signs that health care could be in a bottoming phase. ... My sense, it's probably a play for next year, not this year.”at 11:55

AI regulation & safety

• Andrew N. Ferguson · Federal Trade Commission

  The FTC will apply existing consumer-protection law to AI firms rather than write sweeping new AI rules.

  He says winning the AI race with China is the top strategic priority, so the administration does not want a large new body of AI regulation. The FTC's probe of OpenAI and Anthropic is an ordinary consumer-protection investigation. It checks whether companies honestly describe their products, whether products are safe, and whether data security is adequate. The FTC is not a grand regulator that dictates product design.

  “we don't need a giant raft of new regulations because we have existing guidelines that protect our children, our way of life, our rights and liberties, and our status as consumers in the marketplace.”at 16:09

Agriculture & food commodities

• Tyler Florence · Miller & Lux

  Locking in long-term beef supply and futures gives restaurants value amid beef price inflation.

  Florence cites USDA data showing beef and veal prices up 9.5% in 2026, which he says is visible at the grocery store. His steakhouses respond by buying beef futures and signing long-term commitments with boutique ranchers in several countries. He says this produces 'really great value' by locking in supply and cost. The argument is operational and based on his own sourcing, not a market forecast.

  “We are locked in with boutique ranchers in South Dakota and Southern California and Australia and Japan, and we're buying basically futures of beef.”at 39:45

GLP-1s & obesity drugs

• Tyler Florence · Miller & Lux

  GLP-1 drugs are pushing restaurants toward high-protein menus.

  Florence says GLP-1s are 'having a real effect in the restaurant world right now', and that restaurants are very committed to protein. He points to a wider shift toward high-protein diets, which he says his own restaurants are reflecting. The claim is general and is not backed by menu or sales data.

  “GLP-1s are having a real effect in the restaurant world right now, and everyone's very committed to protein.”at 40:42