NVIDIA CEO Exit, AI Trade Fallout and Tesla-SpaceX Deal Talk

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 126 speakers in other episodes, 113 bullish and 83 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Still bullish on Nvidia despite CEO exit; Ives sees its value at $225 per share without Huang.

  Ives calls the CEO exit a black eye and a washout event, with the board finally ripping off the Band-Aid and no succession plan in place. He still argues Nvidia is the one ship fueling the AI revolution. He estimates Huang was worth roughly a trillion dollars of Nvidia's valuation, so without him fair value is about $225 per share, well above the roughly $164 trading level he cited, which he says is now lower still. Nvidia's stock falls short of that fair value because of the leadership shock, but the franchise is intact, so he stays bullish.

  “But our view is many are thrown in the towel. We are still bullish in NVIDIA because without Jensen, the value is $225 per share.”at 5:26

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global AdvisorsBullish

  Nvidia's ownership culture keeps talent and customers in place despite Huang's exit.

  Lee argues Nvidia's ownership culture is storied: half the employees are worth $25 million or more, own a lot of stock, and the company attracts the best people. That culture does not change with Huang stepping down. He does not expect any customer to cancel an order because of the affair, and unless employees have a better place to go, they will stay and wait to see the successor. He says the stock's muted reaction and the fact that the company still has strong demand reflect that much of the bad news is already priced in.

  “half the employees are worth $25,000,000 or more. They own a ton of stock, and they've attracted the best people routinely. ...that doesn't change with Jensen stepping down.”at 7:03

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementUncertain

  Nvidia's stock can do fine for the next 18 months, but Huang's loss hurts the long term.

  Talkington sells covered calls on Nvidia and says she is in wait-and-see mode. She compares Huang to Musk at Tesla, arguing she would not buy Tesla if Musk left. She expects strong earnings and revenue over the next year and a half, so the stock can do fine. Longer term, the board and shareholders let Huang run the company for 33 years with a poor succession plan, and losing a visionary who could look around corners is a real concern. She also worries about private AI firms he cultivated, like Lambda and Hugging Face.

  “I think a year and a half or the next year and a half, they have a wonderful earnings and revenue, and so I think that the stock can do just fine. But longer term, you have lost the visionary”at 10:36

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Uncertain

  Nvidia risks a Microsoft-style setback if investigations pull it into defensive mode.

  Ives argues that China has an opportunity to close the AI gap while the US investigates Nvidia's ties to the Chinese network around Alice Wong. He says Nvidia must keep innovating, focusing on physical AI and new chip families. If it gets caught in the investigations and goes defensive, the episode becomes a Microsoft moment. He compares it to the late-1990s antitrust case, which he says set Microsoft back for decades. The outcome depends on how the investigations unfold.

  “If they... get caught up in the spider web and two zero two area code, they regress, they go into defensive mode. Then that becomes a Microsoft moment.”at 16:32

• Lo Toney · Plexo CapitalBearish

  Nvidia's role as the AI bank and financial backstop adds risk after Huang's exit.

  Toney says Nvidia has acted as the bank of AI, investing $100 billion, half in public companies and half in startups, and providing a financial backstop on credit for many deals. Huang coordinated customers and suppliers to make things happen. Investors now have to factor in the loss of that coordination. He also argues that buyers should diversify procurement given the concentration of power in Nvidia. He cites Anthropic using Amazon Trainium alongside Nvidia, and OpenAI working with Broadcom on its own chip.

  “we see a little bit of a risk as well because when we think about the role that NVIDIA has played as the bank of AI, right, investing a $100,000,000,000, half into public companies, half into startups, being able to provide a financial backstop on the credit side for a lot of these deals to get done.”at 26:29

• Oliver Renick · CNBCBullish

  Nvidia options flow is neutral-to-bullish with a 6-7% implied earnings move.

  Options activity was heavy, with about 9 million contracts traded and nearly $6 billion in premium, second only to SPY by volume. The biggest Nvidia trades were mostly bulls rolling down their call strikes while keeping or upping the size of their bets, which Renick describes as neutral leaning bullish. The 6-7% implied move for next week's earnings means that if the numbers are good, Nvidia stock could easily recoup today's losses.

  “The biggest trades today in Nvidia were mostly bulls rolling down their call strikes... a trade I describe as neutral leaning bullish... the six to 7% implied move for next week's earnings, meaning if those numbers are good, NVIDIA stock could easily recoup today's losses.”at 41:40

Tesla

Across the shows: 31 speakers in other episodes, 37 bullish and 24 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementBullish

  Tesla–SpaceX merger would be good for investors, with synergies and Tesla keeping a premium to pop.

  Talkington owns Tesla and says the merger would be great for investors. She points to real synergies between the companies and strong leadership at SpaceX and Tesla. She says the political backdrop, with the midterms and a Democratic-controlled Congress coming, probably pushed the deal to happen sooner. She expects Tesla to keep its premium and pop on the deal because SpaceX has the larger market cap. She hopes the deal closes before the end of the year or in Q1 2027.

  “I'm a Tesla shareholder. I think it would be great. There's a lot of synergies with these companies, and so it does make sense.”at 19:54

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Neutral

  Ives puts the Tesla–SpaceX merger at roughly 90% likely, but only if Tesla trades above $500.

  Ives says the group views the Tesla-SpaceX deal as about 90% likely to happen. He sees it as a matter of when, not if, and says the clock is ticking on Musk's timeline. He adds that Tesla needs to be north of $500 per share for the deal to happen, which makes the share price a condition for the transaction rather than a bullish or bearish call on Tesla itself.

  “We say 90% chance this deal is gonna happen. I think it ultimately... Tesla needs to be, I think, north of 500 for it to happen, but it's a matter of when, not if.”at 20:32

Anthropic

Across the shows: 116 speakers in other episodes, 162 bullish and 91 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Lo Toney · Plexo CapitalBullish

  Anthropic is an amazing business, with run rate up $10B to $81B and growing fast.

  Toney's firm, Plexo Capital, is an Anthropic investor. He cites a run rate of $81 billion, which is $10 billion above the prior run rate. He says about 11,900 customers pay over $100,000 a year and almost 2,000 pay over $1 million a year. He calls the businesses incredible and growing extremely fast, while noting that the market had already started scrutinizing the cost of running these businesses and the return on them.

  “Anthropic is doing an amazing job. Their run rate now is 81,000,000,000, which is 10,000,000,000 above the prior run rate.”at 25:39

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Anthropic's IPO is foundational and will set the stage; investor appetite for AI listings is healthy.

  Ives calls Anthropic foundational to the AI revolution, part of its hearts and lungs. He expects it to set the stage for OpenAI, which he expects to list in the first half of next year. He sees the listing as important for transparency and liquidity, and says investor appetite is still there. He views the sentiment as healthy rather than a sign of trouble, although valuations are digesting after the recent sell-off.

  “it's foundational. It's part of the hearts and lungs of this AI revolution. They will set the stage... appetite is still there, and I actually think it's healthy”at 27:54

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 96 speakers in other episodes, 34 bullish and 105 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital ManagementBearish

  CoreWeave's heavy balance-sheet leverage is risky if rates rise and the build-out slows.

  Garcia says CoreWeave has people questioning it, and it has a lot of leverage on its balance sheet. With interest rates possibly going up, that may not be good for a longer-term investment if the data center build-out slows. Bigger, diversified players can sustain and finance the build-out even if it is slower than expected, so she prefers those companies.

  “When you have a company like that that has a lot of leverage on their balance sheet, now interest rates possibly going up, that may not be a good thing as a longer term investment if the build out slows down.”at 36:31

Intel

Across the shows: 17 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 15 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Oliver Renick · CNBCBullish

  Big Intel put selling signals traders betting on a bottom in the stock.

  In today's options flow, Intel showed up with big put sellers. Renick reads this as traders betting on a bottom for the stock. This came alongside heavy retail call buying in competitor AMD, which was the third most traded single name by volume, and it reflects a contrarian positioning view rather than a fundamental call.

  “Intel also showed up with some big put sellers betting on a bottom for that stock.”at 42:16

US stock market outlook

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  Muted market reaction and strong memory stocks show much of the Nvidia bad news is priced in.

  Lee points to the muted overall market reaction to the Nvidia CEO exit, and to memory stocks and AI supply-chain bottlenecks trading well that week. He reads that resilience as a sign that a lot of bad news is already priced in, even though it does not sound great.

  “the stock market's muted reaction overall and the fact that memory stocks and the bottlenecks in AI supply chain is trading well this week really shows a lot of bad news is priced in.”at 17:58

• Michael Santoli · CNBC

  Market rotation offsets Nvidia's selloff, but tighter macro means the rebound must still prove itself.

  Nvidia is down about $530 billion in market cap this week, while Broadcom and AMD together are up about $540 billion, so the rotation is a direct offset that has mitigated the index impact. But the macro is not cooperating: yields are higher, financial conditions are tightening, and most stocks are down on the day. The bounce from Thursday's low still has to prove itself, and today does not change that trajectory, though the first few percent of a rally are easier than the next.

  “We're still working off this bounce that we got going... It still has to kind of prove itself from here. I wouldn't say today sort of changes that whole trajectory”at 40:41

• Shannon Saccocia · Neuberger Berman

  Only energy and tech down in S&P this month; broadening rotation may cushion Nvidia's pain.

  Over the last several weeks, only two S&P 500 sectors, energy and technology, have been down this month. Underneath the surface this gives comfort that the broadening-out trade is taking hold and may alleviate some of the pain from Nvidia. She still frames the Nvidia selloff as a market story because Nvidia is such a large part of the index.

  “you only have two sectors of the S and P 500 that are down this month and it's energy and technology... this broadening out trade is starting to take hold and may alleviate some of the pain from Nvidia.”at 43:20

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Jordan Jackson · J.P. Morgan Asset Management

  Circular deal flow where chip sellers finance buyers is a risk to watch in AI.

  Jackson says investors are grappling with the circularity of AI deal flow, which has been a risk to the market for some time. When a company selling shovels also finances the buyers of those shovels, the circularity becomes a concern. He says it is something to watch for, even as he sees demand for compute holding up.

  “the circularity of the deal flow, and that has been a risk to the market for for quite some time. ...when you have a company that's selling shovels, also financing the guy and gal purchasing the shovels, that circularity becomes a little bit of a concern.”at 34:32

• Jordan Jackson · J.P. Morgan Asset Management

  Compute demand remains robust and the valuation sell-off in AI names is a buying opportunity.

  Jackson says no company he has heard from has suggested that demand for compute is waning, so the backdrop for chip demand remains very robust. He argues that the sell-off is presenting a buying opportunity, since valuations across these groups of AI names have come down significantly. The risks investors worry about may already be in the price.

  “not a single company that has suggested that demand for compute is waning... And I think this is actually presenting itself as a buying opportunity where we've seen valuations across these cohorts of names come down quite significantly.”at 34:52

• Shannon Saccocia · Neuberger Berman

  If Nvidia pulls back spending, funding will likely be filled elsewhere in the capital stack.

  Jensen Huang has acted as both an ambassador and a financier for the AI build-out. Given concerns about circular financing, if Nvidia has to pull back on some of that spending, it is likely to be filled elsewhere in the capital stack. Investor interest and liquidity are there to keep investing in AI, so Nvidia may no longer be the front edge of the trade, but other players will step in.

  “if NVIDIA has to pull back on some of that spending, it's likely to be filled elsewhere in the capital stack. I think... the interest, the investor interest, and the liquidity is there to continue investing in AI... there are going to be other people.”at 44:47

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.

  AI is in a 1997-style moment, not a 1999-2000 bubble; the cycle is near its end.

  Ives sees valuations digesting after the recent sell-off and a selloff he compares to March 2020 and April 2025. He argues the current setup resembles 1997 rather than the 1999-2000 bubble, and that appetite for AI investing remains healthy. He describes the market as at the end of the cycle, with valuations resetting toward something digestible rather than blowing off into a crash.

  “We're still in a 1997 moment. This is not a nineteen ninety nine, two thousand bubble moment. We're the end of the cycle.”at 27:45

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  AI valuations, especially semiconductors, are far below pre-dot-com bubble levels and not stretched.

  Garcia argues that current AI valuations are nowhere near what the market saw before the tech bubble burst. She says semiconductor valuations have come down quite a bit, with price-to-earnings multiples looking attractive rather than at bubble levels. Even though valuations are high, she does not think they are stretched relative to the prior period.

  “I don't think the valuations at this point in time are anywhere near what we saw before the tech bubble burst. ...When you look at the PE multiples, they're looking attractive not at bubble values.”at 36:10

US–China AI & chip race

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  US leadership in AI will remain untouched even without Huang, thanks to a deep talent bench.

  Lee argues that the US has many innovators and a deep bench of talent, and that Huang quickly self-actualized many ideas brought to him. He says that AI is a national security initiative and everyone must stay vigilant. But he concludes that US leadership in AI will be untouched even without Huang, because the bench across America is strong.

  “I think that US leadership in AI is gonna be untouched, even with the loss of Jensen. I think that the... There is sort of a bench across America.”at 17:49

IPOs, M&A & deal activity

• Lo Toney · Plexo Capital

  Anthropic's IPO is the most consequential listing in a decade, a test of AI investor appetite.

  Toney argues that the Anthropic IPO will be the most consequential IPO in at least the past decade because so much of the AI trade rides on a small number of companies and leaders. Anthropic is going first, so its listing sets the clearing price the market will pay for the category. He says the market had already begun scrutinizing the costs and returns of running these businesses, and the IPO will test whether investors are willing to pay for the companies.

  “this anthropic IPO is the most consequential IPO that we will have seen at least in the past decade at a minimum, especially because so much is riding with the AI trade on a small number of companies”at 25:19

AI: overall outlook

• Courtney Garcia · Payne Capital Management

  The AI story is not over; markets are holding up after the Nvidia exit news.

  Garcia says the knee-jerk reaction to the Nvidia news hit markets hard, but the sell-off eased once people digested it. She says the markets holding up without Nvidia or semiconductors is a good sign, since there was a genuine question about whether broader markets could hold up without them. Her view is that the AI build-out is not stalling and the AI thesis is intact.

  “I don't think the AI story is over. I think if this was last week and we were talking after the midterm elections and people were really... You're getting this knee jerk reaction”at 33:08

International equities

• Jordan Jackson · J.P. Morgan Asset Management

  International equities offer diversified, uncorrelated returns versus concentrated US AI exposure.

  US index concentration in AI-linked names (hyperscalers, semis, power, hardware, software) keeps growing, and more IPOs could add to concentration risk. Non-US markets such as Europe, Japan, Canada and Australia have value-heavy indices weighted to industrials and financials, which give a truly diversified, uncorrelated equity return stream. Jordan says this has proven a nice uncorrelated return stream relative to the US and helps balance AI exposure, though it is less exciting and somewhat safer.

  “I would say that international is that area where you can look to find that truly diversified, uncorrelated equity return stream, and particularly markets like Europe, Japan, Canada, Australia, more of those real world economy type of value indices and benchmarks where you're getting industrials and financials”at 37:28