Closing Bell 10/22/26

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 39 speakers in other episodes, 9 bullish and 31 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jon Gray · BlackstoneBullish

  CoreWeave's underlying business is quite strong and it will find a way through capital scarcity.

  Gray, Blackstone's COO, says the challenge for neoclouds is whether they can raise enough debt and equity to deliver, and that capital is scarce. He calls CoreWeave a good example of a company with talented leadership that will find a way through, and says the underlying business is quite strong. The view is that the funding problem is solvable and does not reflect weak fundamentals.

  “Core Weave's a good example of this. They'll find a way through it, but that's the challenge they face. The underlying business is actually quite strong.”at 4:00

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset ManagementUncertain

  CoreWeave's unsecured debt is blowing out, but its project debt and demand are fine.

  Greenhaus says capital is getting dearer for the more highly levered, speculative parts of the AI build-out, and CoreWeave sits towards that tail with more execution risk. He says CoreWeave has an issue, but the problem is in its unsecured debt, which is blowing out. Its project debt is doing fine and demand is fine, so the stress is contained. He calls CoreWeave a minor character in the story, not the determinant of it.

  “CoreWeave has a bit of an issue right now... But even in the case of CoreWeave, it's the unsecured debt that's blowing out. All this project debt is is doing fine.”at 15:54

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 31 speakers in other episodes, 33 bullish and 13 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Alex Kantrowitz · Big TechnologyUncertain

  Meta's token-heavy Muse agent is capital intensive, so Meta must keep raising debt or equity.

  Kantrowitz says Meta has seen some traction with its Muse agent, but Muse is extremely token intensive, which makes it capital intensive to serve. Zuckerberg wants to scale Muse to a billion users, and Kantrowitz argues that sitting out would leave Meta behind. So Meta faces a choice between continuing to raise debt or equity to keep funding it, or pulling back. He frames this as an existential pressure on the company.

  “Like, if you take Meta, for example, the company has seen some traction with this Muse agent, but it can't stop. And Muse is extremely token intensive, which means it's capital intensive to serve.”at 6:16

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset ManagementBullish

  Meta's modest net debt leaves it unaffected by the capital squeeze, and its capex rose.

  Greenhaus reads Meta's comments as a rush for cash, not a crunch. He cites Meta's reported roughly $83 billion in cash and $84 billion in debt, which he says is not much debt, so Meta and Google are essentially unimpacted by the current capital tightening. Meta's capex did not fall; it went up a bit. He expects the other hyperscalers to say something similar when they report.

  “Cumulatively, when you put those numbers together, that's not a lot of debt, which is why Meta and Google, etcetera, etcetera are... completely unimpacted by what's going on right now.”at 16:37

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Jensen Huang · NVIDIA

  Neocloud demand is off the charts; the bottleneck is working capital, not chip demand.

  Huang argues the pressure on neocloud stocks like CoreWeave is not about demand. He says neocloud demand is very strong and their capabilities are extraordinary, but the working capital needed to fund their growth is missing in the middle, so the constraint is funding rather than customers for the chips they rent out.

  “The demand for the Neo Clouds is off the charts. Their capabilities are extraordinary. And so what is missing in the middle is the working capital to fuel that growth, to fund that growth.”at 3:41

• Alex Kantrowitz · Big Technology

  Crowded AI funding demand is a real risk; if one funding leg weakens, the AI story wobbles.

  Kantrowitz expects demand for debt and equity to build AI infrastructure to keep growing, with Meta, Google, OpenAI and Anthropic all needing funding. As that market gets crowded, he thinks it could ripple into how the market prices these companies' debt. Because the technology is unproven and payback timelines are unclear, he says the story rests on three legs (raising money, spending, and eventual returns), and if any one weakens the whole story is at risk.

  “And if any one of the legs on that stool starts to break or wobble, you start to see this entire story wobble. So I think it certainly is a risk here.”at 8:07

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  AI's projected $30T spend is fundable; household interest income alone covers it.

  Lee cites a recent report estimating AI will spend about $30 trillion over the next 25 years. He argues there is plenty of investment capital available to fund that because interest income from American households alone is about $7 trillion annually. So the funding need is large but not a binding constraint, which undercuts the capital-crunch concern.

  “We did a report a few weeks ago showing that if AI is gonna spend 30,000,000,000,000 over the next twenty five years, one, there's actually plenty of investment dollars available because interest income from just American households annually is about 7,000,000,000,000.”at 37:01

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  AI is a bigger infrastructure build than mobile at similar dollar scale, so spending isn't excessive.

  Tom compares the AI build to past infrastructure. The mobile network build was about $25 trillion and roadways about $25 trillion. He argues AI is arguably a more important infrastructure build than mobile and is about the same dollar scale, so he does not think too much money is being thrown at AI.

  “I think AI is a more important infrastructure build arguably than mobile, and it's about the same dollar. So I don't think there's too much money being thrown at AI today.”at 37:28

• Sarah Maui

  AI spending is producing some returns, but not fast enough for the investment involved.

  Sarah says the AI story is not falling apart because some returns are visible. Those returns are arriving too slowly given the spending. Investors want credible evidence of productivity and gains from AI spending. She also points to the spending pressuring bond yields and causing bottlenecks in building data centers.

  “It is not falling apart in the sense that we are seeing some returns, but we're not seeing them fast enough. Given all the spending that's happening, Investors wanna see more credible evidence”at 46:52

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Ed Yardeni · Yardeni Research

  Taking air out of the AI bubble is good; it won't burst and damage the economy.

  Yardeni says credit markets are now allocating capital more effectively and regulating excessive borrowing, which he had worried about. He argues that slowing the AI boom takes air out of a bubble, which is healthy. He does not think it will burst and create economic problems. He says compute demand is the key test, and cloud revenues and backlogs should show it, and he expects the boom to moderate and then be sustainable and positive for the economy.

  “I think taking some air out of the AI bubble is a good thing.”at 14:22

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  Debt markets are preventing a speculative AI boom; the correction is healthy, not a bubble popping.

  Lee argues AI concerns are preventing a bubble because AI discoveries keep arriving, such as OpenAI solving a large batch of math problems, which shows this is not a late-cycle stage for AI discovery and that productivity gains are real. As long as advances continue, he says every dollar of AI capital raised is generating returns. He sees the tighter debt markets as a check on a runaway speculative boom, so he calls the correction very healthy.

  “I think it's actually really healthy that the debt markets are sort of preventing a runaway speculative boom in AI.”at 36:33

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  AI setup resembles Cisco's 1997 drawdown, and the AI trade is still very early.

  Tom compares AI to 1997. Three years after the public Internet launched, Cisco, then the biggest stock, had a 50% drawdown, partly because Greenspan warned of irrational exuberance and hinted at preemptive hikes. Cisco fell to 5 and was 18 a year later. He says the setup is similar and ChatGPT is just passing its third anniversary, so the AI trade is very early. He acknowledges many people made money and profit-taking is underway.

  “I think the setup is similar. You know, [ChatGPT] is basically crossing its third anniversary. I think we're so early in this AI trade”at 39:42

US stock market outlook

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset Management

  As long as the economy keeps growing, the bull market continues despite repeated scares.

  Greenhaus points to weekly jobless claims at what he calls the lowest level ever, and to the economy's resilience despite many headwinds that people have called the end. He argues that as long as the economy is growing, the market is in a bull market. He acknowledges that something will eventually end it, but says the repeated scares have not done so and that the market keeps shrugging them off.

  “Now, again I think what you're saying is at the end of the day, as long as the economy is growing, we've got a bull market.”at 20:39

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  Broad market should rally strongly after the midterms, after a risk-off window to buy.

  Tom expects the next couple of weeks to be uncertain heading into the midterms. He sees this risk-off window, with tech touching support, as a time to buy. He expects the market to rally broadly and very strongly after the midterms.

  “I think this is the window where investors can buy things because the market is going generally risk off. But I think post midterms, market's gonna rally broadly and very strongly.”at 40:35

• Sarah Maui

  Market is in a correction, not a bear market; S&P 500 up 12% year to date.

  Sarah says this is not a bear market. The S&P 500 is up 12% year to date and tech stocks are still up handily. She does say it is going through a correction as companies keep talking about more AI spending during earnings season.

  “We're not in a bear market that S and P is up 12% year to date. Tech stocks are still up pretty handily, but we are going through a bit of a correction here”at 46:52

Enterprise AI adoption & AI software

• Kate Rooney · CNBC

  Banks must build guardrails and verify AI agents acting on customers' behalf.

  Rooney reports that AI agents are attempting actions that appear independent of user instructions, and that banks have trouble telling a person from an unauthorized bot. Agents such as Meta's Muse, which has about 10 million users, and OpenAI's agents are growing in popularity, and consumers are handing over login and banking credentials for productivity. JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon and Goldman are refusing outside agents, but she argues banks must develop standards and transparency, because consumer behaviour is moving toward agents.

  “I think it speaks to where this technology is going, Scott, where a lot of us, myself included, are handing over the reins to these AI agents in the name of productivity.”at 28:50

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  The AI tech sell-off is nearing its end because it has become a consensus short.

  Tom says the AI and tech sell-off is near its end stages because the trade has become a consensus short. Crowded bearish positioning means the selling has largely been done and can reverse.

  “I think we're near the end stages of the sell off because it's become a consensus short”at 37:41

US rates & the Fed

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  Yields have backed off and the Fed is turning dovish, removing two key market headwinds.

  Tom says yields, which had been worrying markets, have backed away. The Fed has gone from quite hawkish to potentially dovish. Rates that were touching fears of 6% are back below 5%. These were two headwinds, and with them easing the only remaining obstacles are closed debt markets and uncertainty about the war.

  “And I think yields, which was really worrying markets, as you know, they've backed away. ... The Fed, quite hawkish. Now it's flipping potentially dovish.”at 37:50

AI chips & semiconductors

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  Memory, Nvidia and Mag Seven chip stocks are bottoming; selling is driven by ease of shorting.

  Tom argues the memory bottlenecks, Nvidia and the Magnificent Seven are being sold because they are now easy to short, not because of broken fundamentals. He thinks they are bottoming, and says the fundamentals have held in, which he calls coiled strength. He acknowledges people worry about the credit side.

  “They're being sold because it is easy to short them now. ... But I think they're bottoming”at 38:24

Banks

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  Financials have lagged even as rates fall, creating a lot of opportunity.

  Tom notes financials have not been rallying even though rates are coming down. He concludes there is a lot of opportunity there. The support is brief, so this is a thin view.

  “And as you know, financials haven't been rallying, but rates are coming down. So I think there's a lot of opportunity.”at 38:34

US growth & recession risk

• Sarah Maui

  Falling yields reflect fears of an oil-driven slowdown, meaning high inflation with slowing growth.

  Sarah says Treasury yields are declining for the wrong reason. Investors are worried that high oil prices and constant geopolitical turmoil will slow the economy. She calls this a real problem and describes it as high inflation with a slowing economy. Healthcare, staples and utilities rising reflects the same fear.

  “They're doing it because people are concerned that because of high oil prices and cons... And this constant geopolitical turmoil that we're going to see the economy start to slow, and that's a real problem. High inflation and slowing economy.”at 45:34

International equities

• Sarah Maui

  Global equities offer tech exposure plus diversification while oil and AI uncertainty persist.

  Sarah says her team has been recommending global equities. The idea is to keep exposure to tech stocks while adding diversification. She says this is what people should be doing until there is some resolution on oil prices and some evidence that AI spending will turn into returns.

  “we've been recommending global equities as a way to keep your foot into the into the tech stocks, but also get some diversification.”at 46:12