Closing Bell: 10/16/26

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 24 speakers in other episodes, 5 bullish and 25 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset ManagementBearish

  Higher rates will call CoreWeave's speculative neocloud financing into question; its unsecured debt is riskiest.

  Greenhaus says rates are higher and the riskier parts of the AI build-out are being knocked. CoreWeave sits at the riskier end, and its unsecured debt is the riskiest part of that. Financing has moved from a 9% coupon to a 15% effective yield. He doubts everyone in the build-out chain can keep financing at higher rates. He does not know if 25 or 50 basis points more is the breaking point, but speculative build-out stories will be questioned as rates rise.

  “I don't know whether this is the breaking point or another 25 or 50 basis points higher is the breaking point. But as rates move higher, the more speculative tales, so to speak, of the build out are gonna be called into question. And right now, that's [CoreWeave].”at 7:11

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global AdvisorsBullish

  CoreWeave's selloff is overdone; its customers are top-tier, so this is a funding-cost repricing, not weak businesses.

  Lee says CoreWeave isn't facing any real risk. The market is repricing expensive money: lenders want higher returns. Its customers are among the bluest chip companies, such as Microsoft, and it has high-quality investors. So it is not a shabbily built business that borrowed at excessive rates. He also thinks Friday and war fears are exaggerating the moves.

  “These are the bluest of chip companies... Whether it's Microsoft, etcetera, and they've got high quality investors. So it's not a question of, are these shabbily built businesses that borrowed money at excessive rates? This is just the market saying, okay. Let's pause.”at 10:40

• Brian Vendig · MJP Wealth AdvisorsBearish

  Investors are moving away from CoreWeave-style AI capex names with off-balance-sheet financing toward free cash flow.

  The market is rewarding free cash flow and high-quality names. Sticky inflation this week reinforces that preference. Bendig ties CoreWeave to concerns about AI innovation spending and capex, and to its off-balance-sheet financing. He argues investors want more predictability and lower multiples in the names they own.

  “what the market prefers is free cash flow, high quality names... this off balance sheet financing moves, I think investors are looking for a little bit more predictability and lower multiples”at 43:58

Apple

Across the shows: 22 speakers in other episodes, 13 bullish and 7 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Mackenzie Sigalos · CNBCBullish

  The foldable Duo's redesign and scarcity give Apple a much clearer reason for customers to upgrade.

  Sigalos says Siri AI's slow rollout has done little to drive upgrades. The Duo's radical redesign gives Apple something it badly needs: a much clearer reason to trade up. Launch-day inventory is gone and delivery dates slipped from November into late January, while one analyst has never seen lead times this long. Scarcity adds appeal, and a halo effect could pull shoppers in to see the Duo and walk out with a Pro.

  “with Siri AI's slow rollout doing little to drive upgrades, the Duo's radical redesign gives Apple something that it badly needs, a much clearer reason for customers to trade up.”at 17:41

US stock market outlook

• Tom Lee · Fundstrat Global Advisors

  Markets are at support and fundamentals are intact, so the AI selloff offers a good risk-reward buy.

  Lee argues the market has been climbing a wall of worry and is at technical support, with a strategist expecting a rally. Fundamentals of the AI story remain intact, even if AI debt markets are less confident. When fundamentals hold and markets turn fearful, he sees a pretty good risk-reward setup. He would buy the pullback in memory, semis, neoclouds, tech and crypto, which he calls a coiled spring.

  “I think from a fundamental perspective... the fundamental story and the drivers of AI are intact. So to me, when you have the fundamentals holding in and markets getting fearful, it's actually a pretty good risk reward setup for investors.”at 4:16

• Ed Clissold · Ned Davis Research

  Narrow breadth must correct, or next year brings slowing earnings, a less friendly Fed and poor technicals.

  The market has been much narrower over the past few weeks, with the S&P near a new high but few stocks above their 50- and 200-day moving averages. The bull market has usually been an AI trade that pauses while the rest catches up, and that rotation has never lasted long. Breadth needs to correct, or the recipe for next year is slowing earnings growth, a less friendly Fed and poor technicals.

  “The S and P close to the new high, low percentage of stocks above their fifty day, two hundred day moving averages. We need that to correct itself. Otherwise, the recipe for next year is slowing earnings growth, less friendly fed, and poor technicals.”at 16:53

• Mohamed El-Erian · Allianz

  Rotating out of tech into non-tech is misguided; tech weakness will hit non-tech via the economy and flows.

  El-Erian does not understand the rotation trade everyone advocates, which he calls one minus x. If tech does badly, non-tech suffers for two reasons. Tech is an economic driver, and it was a major magnet for domestic and international flows, so a technical effect follows. He says the non-tech side of the economy is vulnerable to tech. High yields, spreads and oil prices already weigh on non-tech too.

  “What I don't quite understand is the rotation trade that everybody is advocating, what I call the one minus x. If tech does badly, that is gonna impact nontech for two reasons.”at 35:38

• Brian Vendig · MJP Wealth Advisors

  Sector rotation out of tech into health care, utilities and financials should continue until mega-cap tech earnings.

  Information technology and communication services are leading the selloff while six S&P sectors are green. The S&P's moving average has risen to a level not seen since summer, which Bendig reads as health care, utilities and financials coming back. Expectations are high heading into earnings, so he expects the rotation to continue until mega-cap tech reports, starting with Meta next week.

  “this rotational market, Leslie, is gonna continue until we get to a sense of those mega cap tech earnings, which start in the in the middle of next week with Meta”at 43:10

• Brian Vendig · MJP Wealth Advisors

  AI-related names make up about half the S&P 500, so tech selloffs drag the whole index lower.

  AI and AI-related names account for around 50% of the S&P 500's market-cap weighting. When tech sells off, as it did on this day, the overall index falls. He cites the week-to-date decline as evidence.

  “the S and P 500 is influenced by AI and AI related names up to around 50% of the overall market cap weighting of the index. So we should expect that when we do have these jitters and tech sells off like a day like today, it is gonna bring the overall index down”at 45:25

• Brian Vendig · MJP Wealth Advisors

  The market can keep climbing the wall of worry if earnings deliver and 2027 outlooks hold.

  Positioning has been flushed out this week, with some individual names punished disproportionately. Bendig says the market depends on the power of earnings. If earnings deliver and outlooks for 2027 hold, the market can grind higher despite AI-related jitters.

  “at the end of the day, if earnings deliver and those outlooks hold for 2027, this market still has a chance to climb that wall of worry, so to speak, and grind higher”at 46:12

Banks

• Stephen Biggar · Argus Research

  Banks' asset-sensitive balance sheets gain short-term from rate hikes, but overdoing it would crimp lending.

  Banks' balance sheets are asset-sensitive, so loans reprice faster than deposits when the Fed raises rates. That gives a short-term benefit, which is visible in JPMorgan's raised net interest income target. The worry is that the Fed overdoes it and crimps loan growth, with credit quality following. A quarter-point rise is not enough to kill most projects, but tenure yields moving sharply hurt rate-sensitive areas such as housing.

  “So their assets reprice faster than liabilities, which means loans reprice faster than deposits, and we'll see that at least short term benefit. So the worry, of course, is that the Fed overdoes it.”at 27:25

• Stephen Biggar · Argus Research

  Banks are overcapitalized, and expected Basel III softening would free capital for lending or buybacks.

  Basel III has been expected for a while, and Biggar expects some softening, which will benefit banks by reducing the capital they must set aside. Most analysts think the industry is overcapitalized. Banks could use the freed capital for lending, buybacks or dividends, though they would say lending growth is the priority. He says the regime has not changed but relief is coming, and that is a catalyst for lower capital ratios across banks.

  “I mean, I think I'm in the camp of certainly most analysts to say that the banking industry is overcapitalized right now.”at 29:36

US rates & the Fed

• Mohamed El-Erian · Allianz

  Markets price too many Fed hikes; he doubts three hikes will happen, given economic sensitivity.

  Markets price about two and a half hikes by mid-next-year and three by September. El-Erian thinks that is too much. Rate-sensitive parts of the economy are under strain, with high yields, wider spreads and high oil prices. A tech selloff could also dampen the economy and markets. The Fed chair's remarks were consistent with the Fed's expectations, and the market reads dovishness into them despite that. He expects fewer hikes than priced, though he understands why markets think otherwise.

  “The market is pricing in total two and a half hikes by the middle of next year, three by September. I think that's too much.”at 34:06

• Mohamed El-Erian · Allianz

  Hot CPI, PPI and import prices make further Fed cuts after December doubtful, unlike the market's view.

  CPI and PPI came in hot and import prices were also hot, all above expectations. El-Erian argues the Fed cannot ignore this inflation. The open question is whether the Fed keeps cutting after December. He says the market expects cuts to continue, but he is not so sure.

  “So I don't think they can ignore it. The question is, do they keep going after December? ... The market thinks they will. I'm not so sure.”at 36:56

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Ed Clissold · Ned Davis Research

  Rising capital costs could slow the AI data-center build-out, though demand is still strong.

  Clissold says capital has a price and the market is working out what it is. A slowdown in the build-out is quite possible even though demand is still very strong. Investors need the next earnings season to see the answer, and he expects to wait a couple of weeks. The market is selling off partly because it does not know yet.

  “Capital has a price, and the market's trying to figure that out right now. And it's quite possible that you could see a bit of a slowdown in the build out.”at 8:42

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset Management

  The AI bubble call keeps failing: demand and revenues are real, with supply-chain demand exceeding supply.

  Greenhaus says bubble warnings keep being disproven: the market kept making new highs despite warning signs. Demand is there and companies have revenue, so the build-out is not speculative fervour hoping customers appear later. Every company in the supply chain says demand considerably exceeds supply. ASML and TSMC say demand is booked out quarters in advance. He concedes you can call it a bubble if you want, but CoreWeave's financing move is not evidence of one.

  “[The bubble call] is repeatedly proven not true because, a, the demand is there, and, b, there's revenues all over the place for these companies.”at 12:27

Earnings & corporate profits

• Ed Clissold · Ned Davis Research

  S&P 500 earnings story has further to run after strong beats, though 2027 growth will be slower.

  Last earnings season, S&P 500 expectations were for about 25% growth and came in at 32%, with strong beats. Q3 expectations are again around 25-26%. He expects the earnings story to keep going, but 2027 numbers will be less good than 2026. Some 2026 gains were one-offs, including tariff refunds and paper gains from AI companies revaluing privately, so growth may slow.

  “I think there's an opportunity for the market to reset and take a deep breath and realize that the earnings story still has further to go.”at 15:51

AI: overall outlook

• Mohamed El-Erian · Allianz

  AI's trade needs adoption and risk mitigation, which tech companies don't fully control, so it's tougher.

  El-Erian says the AI trade depends on invention, which is going well, but also on broad dissemination, adoption and mitigating unintended consequences. Those last two are not really in the hands of tech companies. The market has started to realize that is tougher than it looked, which is part of why the tech selloff started.

  “So I think this week, the market finally woke up to a simple fact. The AI trade depends not just on invention, which is going really well, but it also depends on broad dissemination, adoption, and being able to risk mitigate the unintended consequences.”at 35:09

US inflation

• Mohamed El-Erian · Allianz

  Hot CPI, PPI and import prices mean the Fed cannot ignore inflation beyond December.

  El-Erian says the hot CPI and very hot PPI prints, plus hot import prices released today, were all above expectations. The question is what happens beyond December, because the Fed cannot ignore that inflation data. He thinks October is off the table, with less than 20% odds, which is the right number. The live question is later in the year.

  “because they cannot ignore what were hot CPI numbers and what were very hot PPI numbers. And then today, we got the import prices as well. They were hot.”at 36:40

Power demand & the grid

• Brian Vendig · MJP Wealth Advisors

  Electrification, grid and onshoring spending should keep growing into next year, making the selloff in industrials a buying opportunity.

  Industrials are down about 6 to 7% over the last three months while tech has rallied. Bendig still sees innovation and spending in electrification, the grid and onshoring of supply chains, along with capex, continuing into next year. He calls the selloff a buying opportunity in some sectors.

  “there is innovation and spending that's gonna be happening in the electrification and and and the grid and onshoring of supply chains as well as CapEx spend still continuing into next year”at 44:55