Closing Bell Overtime 10/9/26

Apple

Across the shows: 7 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBullish

  iPhone 18 demand fine; compressed lead times suggest no Duo cannibalization; investors will be surprised.

  Munster argues the Nikkei report of cuts to iPhone 18 Pro component orders is not a demand warning. Lead times are compressed but are flat with the iPhone 18 Pro versus last year, and that Pro segment is the one a foldable Duo would cannibalize. Since lead times hold there, he sees no cannibalization yet. He concedes Apple's split launch cycle makes the signals noisy and that production cuts usually come later, but he expects reported numbers in a few weeks to surprise investors. He also expects FY27 iPhone growth to beat the Street's 8% estimate, because personalized AI on newer phones should drive a better upgrade cycle.

  “No. I think it's gonna be ultimately okay. We've said the same thing that the lead times are getting compressed here, Mel... but they're flat with that iPhone 18 Pro, which is a really big deal.”at 14:18

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 0 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBullish

  TSMC's growth acceleration to 51% is undoubtedly strong and shows the AI fundamentals are healthy.

  Munster cites TSMC's revenue growth accelerating from 35% in the June quarter to 51%, versus 25% a year earlier. He calls the numbers undoubtedly strong. He uses them as evidence that the underlying AI build-out is accelerating, which contrasts with the market's nervousness that week.

  “We saw TSM numbers, they accelerated from 35% growth in the June quarter to 51% growth. It grew 25% a year ago. So this nice acceleration.”at 17:18

OpenAI

Across the shows: 22 speakers in other episodes, 10 bullish and 27 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBullish

  OpenAI's underlying growth is unchanged at about 70%; the revenue-number selloff was overdone.

  Munster says the headline revenue confusion, which was an accounting change in how partner cloud sales were counted, did not reveal slowing growth. He points out that OpenAI effectively reiterated its growth rate of about 70% quarter over quarter. He reads that as a positive signal. He frames the market reaction as a sensitivity to momentum: any hint of slowing growth spooks investors even when the underlying trajectory is intact.

  “I think that the fact that, again, the growth of... The underlying growth of OpenAI is unchanged. It's still 70%.”at 17:27

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 12 speakers in other episodes, 16 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset ManagementBullish

  Meta's stock rose 27% and added $400B on its AI app launch, showing momentum is rewarded.

  Munster uses Meta as a counterexample to the AI trade's sell-off. When an AI product shows fast user momentum, as with Muse's roughly 2 million users, the stock rewards it: up 27% and about $400 billion of market cap added. He says this shows investors respond well when AI growth momentum is visible.

  “if we look at when that momentum piece works, look what happened with Meta. With Muse, the stock was up 27%.”at 17:58

AT&T

• Frank Louthan · Raymond JamesBullish

  Carrier selloff on SpaceX spectrum news is an overreaction; AT&T is Raymond James' top sector pick.

  Louthan argues the market is overreacting to SpaceX's spectrum purchase. SpaceX is three to four years from delivering what it can do. The 800 MHz spectrum it bought is a small slice, so it needs more bands and a large build-out before it can run a full wireless network. Buying spectrum is not a network, and carriers will keep pushing back at upcoming auctions. He says investors' time horizons are too short for this, and that the fear-driven selling will fade once investors hear this argument, which he saw happen after the SpaceX IPO earlier this year.

  “I definitely think it's an overreaction. AT and T would be our top pick here in the sector.”at 27:38

Micron Technology

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Barbara Doran · BD8 Capital PartnersBullish

  Micron sees visibility into 2030 on take-or-pay contracts, so AI memory demand is real.

  Doran says companies like Micron have visibility out into 2030, and that its contracts are take-or-pay, so customers cannot cancel them. She argues this shows the AI spending is based on real demand, not over-ordering.

  “I happen to be an AI bull because I think the demand is real and sustainable. And when you hear from companies like Micron, sees visibility out into 2030... And even a Micron, where it's take or pay.”at 40:13

Anthropic

Across the shows: 20 speakers in other episodes, 9 bullish and 34 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bob Elliott · Unlimited FundsBearish

  Anthropic's revenue has flatlined, which signals AI revenue is shifting from parabolic to linear growth.

  Elliott cites the flatlining of Anthropic's revenues as a major part of the AI economy's revenue cycle. Combined with new OpenAI information, he says growth has changed from parabolic to linear over the last three to six months, which will not support the needed revenue.

  “combined with the flatlining of revenues from Anthropic. Those are big parts of the overall revenue cycle in the AI economy right now”at 41:30

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 19 speakers in other episodes, 19 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Barbara Doran · BD8 Capital PartnersBullish

  Nvidia has recovered to new highs after post-earnings selloffs, and its guidance keeps strengthening.

  Nvidia's stock has sold off after several recent quarterly reports, but it recovered and made new highs. Doran says expectations get built in before each report, so pullbacks are normal. Guidance is getting stronger, not weaker, and the demand behind the numbers is real.

  “And yet Nvidia has recovered and made new highs... the guidance is always key. But the guidance is getting stronger and stronger, not weaker.”at 42:28

Oil & fuels

• Denton Cinquegrana · OPIS, a Dow Jones Company (Dow Jones Energy)

  Hurricane likely spares most Gulf refineries; power outages and flooding are the main risk.

  Cinquegrana identifies the two refineries in the storm's path: Chevron's Pascagoula refinery at about 370,000 barrels a day and a Vertex refinery in Mobile at about 90,000 barrels a day. He says the large concentration of Gulf refineries is probably spared. The real risks are flooding, high winds and especially loss of power, which is a utility issue. The aftermath of the storm matters as much as the storm itself.

  “the large area concentration of refineries is certainly probably likely to be spared, but the things you gotta worry about here is obviously flooding, high winds... keep an eye on the power in that area.”at 8:03

• Denton Cinquegrana · OPIS, a Dow Jones Company (Dow Jones Energy)

  The Russian diesel deal is a drop in the bucket, and Russia will struggle to deliver the volumes.

  Cinquegrana converts the announced volumes from metric tons to barrels per day. The November 500,000 metric tons is about 123,300 barrels a day, which is small against US distillate demand of about 3.6 million barrels a day. He adds that Russia already has a diesel export ban for October and that Ukrainian drone strikes are hitting its refineries. He therefore doubts Russia can supply the volumes. He calls the delivery 'gonna be difficult' and speculates that Ukrainian attacks could step up.

  “when you break it down from metric tons to barrels to barrels a day, it really kinda ends up being really a drop in the bucket for lack of a better term... their own issues and attacks by Ukrainian drones on their refineries, I'm not sure how Russia could supply this much, diesel to the world market.”at 8:54

Sports, betting & prediction markets

• Gary Gensler · MIT Sloan School of Management

  CFTC's position that sports contracts are swaps is absurd; Congress never meant to preempt state gambling rules.

  Gensler argues the 2010 swaps provisions were written after the 2008 crisis to regulate swaps tied to commercial, financial or economic risk, such as hedging a crop price or interest rates. Sports betting was never raised in the 54 congressional appearances he made during that period. He says the CFTC's move to treat sports contracts as swaps is a way to preempt state authority over gambling. He adds that the sports contract filing came three days after a new president took office, and that Donald Trump Jr. has an economic interest in Polymarket. He also notes that most platform revenue comes from sports betting. He hopes the Supreme Court rejects the CFTC's reading.

  “Nothing could be further from the truth. What the administration's position, what Cauchy's position is, is frankly absurd... Sports betting was not part of that crisis. I testified 54 times in congress during those years.”at 31:36

• Gary Gensler · MIT Sloan School of Management

  Event contracts on sports, politics and geopolitics make insider trading and event-integrity abuse very hard to guard against.

  Gensler argues that it is very hard to police insider trading and to prevent undermining the integrity of sports, politics or geopolitical events traded as contracts. He cites Pope Gregory XIV's centuries-old ban on betting on papal conclaves, and an alleged case of a military member betting on prediction markets about invading Venezuela that the government has brought.

  “It's really hard to guard against insider trading. ... It's very hard to guard against undermining the integrity of the underlying event, sports, politics, or these geopolitical events.”at 37:45

Earnings & corporate profits

• Bob Elliott · Unlimited Funds

  Forward P/E numbers rely on extraordinary earnings growth that may not be realised.

  Elliott says the forward P/E ratios being cited are based on forward earnings, which are not real earnings. Those multiples are baking in some of the most extraordinary earnings growth in the postwar era.

  “those are forward PE numbers, and forward earnings is not real earnings. ... What they're baking in is they're baking in some of the most extraordinary earnings growth in the postwar era”at 43:21

• Bob Elliott · Unlimited Funds

  Consensus expects over 20% earnings growth for six to eight quarters, which is hard to meet.

  Elliott says forward P/E ratios are based on forward earnings, which are not real earnings. The consensus expects the most extraordinary earnings growth in the postwar era, above 20% year over year for the next six to eight quarters. That is very hard to meet, and it depends on AI capex continuing, which requires real-economy companies to start spending on AI.

  “consensus expectations above 20% earnings growth quarter after, you know, year on a year on year basis for the next six to eight quarters. That's very hard to meet”at 43:32

Banks

• Barbara Doran · BD8 Capital Partners

  Bank earnings next week should be good, with strong capital markets trading and better net interest income.

  Bank stocks have pulled back, and the main bank ETF is down 12% over recent months. Doran attributes this to fears that higher rates hurt loan demand and the economy. She sees no recession in sight. She expects good numbers, strong capital markets trading and net interest income gains as spreads improve.

  “I think the numbers are gonna be good, and I think it's gonna be... The forward guidance is gonna be good.”at 44:17

• Bob Elliott · Unlimited Funds

  Banks are more robust and profitable than in past cycles, so any trouble is likely outside the banking system.

  Elliott says banks were at the core of problems in previous cycles, but they are now more robust, more profitable and have better net interest margins than in a long time. He argues that if trouble comes, it will be outside the banking system and core financials, in the nooks and crannies where leverage has been building up.

  “the banks are more robust, more profitable, better NIMs than we've seen in a long time. And so, if we're going to have a trouble, it's going to be outside the banking system”at 44:59

AI: overall outlook

• Gene Munster · Deepwater Asset Management

  Market AI nervousness is unwarranted; adoption is early, with sub-10 million personalized bot users and physical AI not started.

  Munster says the AI trade's recent wobble reflects underlying nervousness that he finds hard to reconcile with the fundamentals. Strong TSMC growth and OpenAI's unchanged growth show demand is intact. He notes that personalized AI bots have fewer than 10 million users and that physical AI has not started, so the industry is early in its adoption curve.

  “the part that blows me away is that the market's nervous, but if you look at the fundamentals in terms of how early we are... we're talking about sub 10,000,000 users on these personalized bots. We're talking about physical AI hasn't even started.”at 18:26

Telecom & connectivity

• Frank Louthan · Raymond James

  Tower stocks' selloff on SpaceX fears is overdone; towers have upside from a cycle trough.

  Louthan says towers sold off earlier this year on fears that SpaceX would make terrestrial towers unnecessary. The SpaceX spectrum purchase shows it plans to use terrestrial spectrum, and that spectrum is likely already on equipment on towers DISH built. Tower companies may recover some rent they lost from DISH. Any deployment would also drive tower leasing. He says the towers trade well below their historical levels and that the sector is entering a cycle trough. Upcoming spectrum auctions next year and AT&T's 600 MHz fixed-wireless build-out should lift leasing, so he sees upside not yet priced in.

  “There's still some upside here. They're still trading well below where they have been historically. And we think you're also coming into a trough in the cycle here for the towers.”at 28:44

Stablecoins & crypto policy

• Gary Gensler · MIT Sloan School of Management

  Perpetual futures reclassification and planned single-stock perpetuals undermine investor protection and may be contrary to law.

  A perpetual swap was relabelled as a futures contract by the CFTC, so it can trade on a different platform. Gensler says single-stock perpetual futures are set to start trading as soon as November 2. He argues this undermines investor protection and may be contrary to law.

  “I am concerned that it will undermine investor protection... And I think that's really undermining investor protection, and it may be contrary to law as well.”at 36:40

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Barbara Doran · BD8 Capital Partners

  AI infrastructure spending is justified because the underlying demand is real and sustainable.

  Doran says the huge AI spending and the market's gains depend on the infrastructure buildout. She is an AI bull because she thinks demand is real and sustainable, citing Micron's multi-year visibility and take-or-pay contracts as evidence.

  “I think we're going continue to see this because this is such huge spending... So, for me, it's about the demand and believing if the demand is real. And I do.”at 40:10

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Bob Elliott · Unlimited Funds

  AI capex needs $3T of AI revenue by 2030, but revenue growth has turned linear, so the trade looks unsupported.

  Elliott says the capex penciled into Nvidia and Micron numbers requires $3 trillion of revenue going to the AI complex by 2030. He points to OpenAI's new information and Anthropic's flatlining revenue. Over the last three to six months, AI growth has shifted from parabolic to linear. Linear growth will not reach the revenue needed, so the US stock market is one big bet on AI success.

  “In order to justify the type of CapEx that's currently penciled out... you need $3,000,000,000,000 of revenue going to the AI complex by 2030.”at 41:17

US stock market outlook

• Barbara Doran · BD8 Capital Partners

  Forward valuation reset from 23x to 19x and sentiment repositioned lower, so risk-reward looks very good.

  Doran says the market's valuation was 23 times forward earnings at the start of the year and is now about 19 times, after earnings growth. She also says investor sentiment has repositioned lower. She concludes the market is in a very good spot for risk-reward.

  “I think we have had a reset in valuation. ... We were 23 times at the beginning of the year. With earnings growth, it's now... Yes, 19.”at 42:34