America’s Relationship Woes, Battery Pivot, Farmers’ Fed Warning

Narendra Modi · Government of India

Globalization's interdependencies have become choke points, with supply chains, energy and tech weaponised for coercion.

Modi argues that things that connected the world are now being weaponised. He lists supply chains, energy, minerals, payments and technology, all of which are becoming tools for coercion and pressure. He says the links created by globalization over the last two decades have become choke points. He ties this to a crisis of trust that supplies will continue uninterrupted and that partner countries will stand by each other in times of need.

“Things that connected the world at one time are today being weaponized, be it supply chains or energy, be it minerals or payments or technology, they are all becoming tools for coercion”at 2:26

Chrystia Freeland · Rhodes Trust

US tariffs on Canada and other close allies are unjustified and illegal, breaching the existing trade agreement.

Freeland argues the US has hit its closest allies with unjustified and illegal tariffs. She says these violate the trade agreement already in place between Canada and the US. She describes this as part of a wider pattern in which the White House is friendly to China and tilts toward Russia. This has made Canadians feel angry and betrayed.

“We see America's closest allies be hit with unjustified and illegal tariffs that violate the trade agreement we have in place with The United States.”at 21:25

Janet Yellen

Tariffs are appalling, costly to the US, and worsen affordability; some have already been found illegal.

Yellen says she finds the US treatment of allies appalling. She argues the tariffs run against America's own interests. Some have already been found illegal. She says the US has lost a great deal from them, especially when affordability is the overriding concern of Americans who feel they cannot make ends meet. She concludes the tariffs have only made that worse.

“We have lost a great deal from the tariffs, and especially at a time when affordability is an overriding concern of Americans... The tariffs have only made that worse.”at 22:43

Chrystia Freeland · Rhodes Trust

US treatment of allies, including Canada, is absolutely reprehensible and friends do the US no favours by sugarcoating it.

Freeland says she admires the US and respects the postwar partnership it built with allies. She argues the way the US is treating its allies, including Canada, is absolutely reprehensible. She says Canada and other friends of America do the US no favours by sugarcoating it. She also cites the White House's friendliness toward China and its tilt toward Russia over Ukraine as evidence of the damage.

“the way that The United States is treating its allies, very much including Canada, today is absolutely reprehensible.”at 16:13

Chrystia Freeland · Rhodes Trust

Rebuilding the Western alliance needs stronger economic ties with security allies, not just security partnerships.

Freeland says there is an opportunity to rebuild the Western alliance. That requires doubling down on security partnerships and building stronger economic connections among friends. She endorses friendshoring, the idea Janet Yellen popularized. The approach is to build the closest economic partnerships with countries that share values and are security allies. Trade with other countries, but be more careful and avoid becoming dependent on them.

“rebuilding the Western alliance, I think, requires absolutely doubling down on the security partnerships, but it also really means building even stronger economic connections between the friends.”at 18:02

Janet Yellen

The US should rebuild strong security and economic alliances, with open trade among like-minded countries.

Yellen says she was heartened by Jamie Dimon's op-ed arguing the US should rebuild both its security and economic alliances. She says many needed pieces are already in place. She says this matches the friendshoring idea she endorsed: strong security and economic alliances, and an open trading system. That system must recognise that the US was naive about trading with countries that do not share its values. She adds that people harmed by trade are not wrong, and that this needs addressing.

“what you see in his piece are the elements of what we have endorsed with the idea of Friendshoring. Strong alliances, both security and economic.”at 23:54

Gina Raimondo

Companies are reshoring US manufacturing and pooling supply chains with rivals to blunt tariffs.

Raimondo says she sees companies that want more US manufacturing to avoid tariffs and to gain scale. She also sees traditional competitors combining parts of their supply chains. Five years ago that would have seemed crazy because supply chains were a competitive advantage. Now firms describe the move as creating more scale and making them stronger and more tariff-resistant, which she sees as adaptation to unpredictability.

“They want to do more manufacturing in The US to avoid the tariff... now, they're saying it's more scale, stronger, tariff resistant.”at 4:53

Allison Weis · Wood Mackenzie

US battery cell making isn't economic without tax credits and tariffs; upstream components need similar support.

Weiss argues the challenge for US battery cell upstream supply is economics, not capability: the US could manufacture it but hasn't made it economic. Upstream supply still runs through China. To bring US cells to cost parity with Chinese cells she says it needs 40% tax credits on the cell side plus tariffs on Chinese product, and similar support for upstream components before further investment makes sense. Manufacturing in the US is currently much more expensive, so incentives are needed.

“I think the big challenge for the upstream supply chain for cells is not that we couldn't manufacture all of it here, but that we haven't made it economic to do so.”at 38:20

Nirmala Sitharaman · Government of India

India's deregulation and digitisation have made it a credible manufacturing base for domestic and export markets.

Sitharaman says most sectors attracting capital have been freed of many earlier regulations. Laws were simplified and regulations made transparent and consultative. Human resources for scaling activities have been strengthened, and digitisation has opened up markets. She argues India's middle class and its purchasing power give companies the confidence to manufacture in India for the domestic market and for export.

“Most of the sectors in which we were drawing capital have been freed of very many regulations which had prevailed earlier. So the laws were made simpler”at 7:40

Jon Gray · Blackstone

India's capital-market reforms have made it a major listing venue with liquidity second only to the US.

Gray says India has made enormous progress because the government changed capital-market rules. Multiple companies have moved to India to list, and Indian market liquidity is now probably second only to the US, which he says would have been unimaginable twenty years ago. He credits better physical infrastructure, improved dispute resolution, and a government welcoming foreign investment. He says most industries were closed to foreign investment twenty years ago, and that openness has accelerated growth.

“the government has done all sorts of things to change the rules for capital markets. We've actually moved multiple companies to India to list.”at 8:41

Allison Weis · Wood Mackenzie

US storage installations grew 16x in five years, but new sourcing rules will slow 2026 and 2027 growth.

Weiss says US annual battery storage installations rose from 1.2 GW to 19 GW last year, about 16 times higher, with tax credits driving growth. She says new restrictions on the investment tax credit for storage projects force companies to rework supply chains after they use safe-harbour provisions. As a result she forecasts 2026 and 2027 will see somewhat less growth than otherwise. She expects more domestic supply later in the decade and early 2030s to support projects.

“The new restrictions for getting the investment tax credit for battery storage projects have made it so that companies need to rework their supply chains... so that's why we forecast that '26 and '27 will have a little bit less growth than they would have otherwise had.”at 31:37

Allison Weis · Wood Mackenzie

A 30% tax credit plus a 10% domestic-content adder will make US storage cost comparable to Chinese systems.

Weiss argues that US battery storage projects will be priced competitively with Chinese-sourced systems. The 30% investment tax credit plus the extra 10% domestic-content bonus adder offset the cost gap. Tariffs facing Chinese systems add to this effect. Weiss says US projects will cost comparably to what they might otherwise have procured from China. Her view depends on domestic supply expanding, which she expects in the later 2020s and early 2030s.

“the tax credit of 30% that you get and then the additional 10% domestic content bonus adder, they will cost comparably to what might have otherwise been procured from China, especially with the tariffs that Chinese systems are facing.”at 32:05

Jon Gray · Blackstone

AI will define this era, transforming how people live, businesses operate and governments oversee societies.

Gray argues that looking back ten or twenty years, technology will be the defining feature of this era. He compares it to the US industrial revolution from 1870 to 1900. He says bringing this superintelligence to the whole world will profoundly change how people live, how consumers and businesses operate, and how governments oversee societies. He calls it the biggest challenge, and says other issues only make business more uncertain.

“I think the biggest thing when we look back in history... will be the technology... when you bring this superintelligence to the entire world, that it's going to profoundly change how we live.”at 9:32

Gina Raimondo

AI productivity gains are astounding and could meaningfully lift US GDP growth above its long-run 2% pace.

Raimondo argues that across the estimates she has seen, AI productivity gains are very large. These should translate into stronger GDP growth. She notes the US economy has grown about 2% a year for a century, and says AI could change that even in a hugely advanced economy. She adds that the gains only count if policy ensures broad prosperity rather than concentrated prosperity, and that all workers get an opportunity.

“the productivity gains are astounding, and that ought to yield impressive GDP growth and growth rate... you can see AI changing that meaningfully.”at 10:27

Gina Raimondo

Congress must set AI safety standards and pre-deployment testing with penalties; it won't happen without a major incident.

Raimondo argues regulation is a public good that makes everyone more productive. She says AI models should be held to defined safety standards, as cyber and most consumer products already are, and tested before deployment. She says that is not happening now, and that a framework of standards, pre-deployment testing, inspection, and fines or criminal penalties must be put in place quickly. She fears it will take a massive cyber or other safety incident before it does.

“We need to define the safety standards and then test these models, pre deployment, and make sure they hew to the safety standard. That isn't happening.”at 11:30

Chrystia Freeland · Rhodes Trust

China's 2001 WTO admission was naive, as China is an authoritarian mercantilist state that pushes out Western industries.

Freeland argues that China's admission to the WTO in 2001 was well intentioned but incredibly naive. It overlooked that China is an authoritarian communist regime that practises mercantilism very effectively. She says China seeks to force Western countries out of some critical industries very intentionally. She presents this as the main cause of the trade system's breakdown.

“A big part of the problem was China. And I think China's admission to the WTO in 2001 was well intentioned by everyone but incredibly naive.”at 16:53

Hodrick

Permitting delays that push construction past interconnection windows create grid capacity shortfalls.

Hodrick says there may be a shortfall in grid capacity to support the population. The mechanism is permitting delays that push a project's construction window into and beyond its interconnection window, which is where the problem arises. The excerpt starts mid-discussion, so the wider context is only partly visible.

“And when you have a permitting delay that drives a construction window ... into and beyond that interconnection window, that's where there's a problem.”at 37:58

Troy Uphoff · Uphoff Farms

Tariffs cut crop prices while diesel, seed and fertiliser costs rose, squeezing farm profitability for years.

Uphoff, a farmer, says crop prices are lower mainly because of tariffs. Tariffs add competition from imports and cut US demand, since trading partners retaliate against US farm products. Input costs have risen faster than commodity prices: diesel is roughly 80% higher than a year ago, and seed and fertiliser costs are also up with inflation. Growers have had little profitability over the last couple of years.

“So the crop prices are lower mainly due to tariffs.”at 41:59

Austin Goolsbee · Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Successive supply shocks have had more persistent inflation effects than first estimates predicted.

Goolsbee says he is increasingly concerned. Supply shocks since COVID disruption, then large tariffs, then a big oil price spike have each had a more persistent effect on inflation than the first estimate expected. US inflation has been more than five years above the 2% target. Historically, small-to-medium supply shocks faded faster than monetary policy takes effect, but these have lasted longer.

“I've been a little concerned that these bigger supply shocks that we've been facing in the last five or six years, starting with COVID supply disruption, then big tariffs, then big oil price, they've had, each one of them, a pretty substantially more persistent impact on inflation than at least the first estimate thought it was gonna be.”at 46:54

Austin Goolsbee · Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Fed cannot ignore persistent supply-driven inflation and must respond, though not necessarily as it would to overheating demand.

Goolsbee says short supply shocks lasting three to six months don't justify a Fed response, since they fade faster than policy works, which takes a year-plus. If supply shocks persist and threaten permanent inflation above target, the Fed cannot ignore them. It can't control oil prices, but he thinks it has no choice but to at least try to reduce inflation. The response need not match the size or form of a response to overheated demand, but it cannot be nothing.

“If there are persistent supply shocks, I do think the Fed has no choice but to at least try to address and reduce the inflation.”at 47:42

Austin Goolsbee · Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Business contacts across sectors report rising costs, not falling demand, so the issue is cost pressure.

Goolsbee says that in his district meetings, businesses across multiple sectors said nothing about demand drying up. They focused on cost pressures: fertilizer, diesel, shipping and other costs. He uses this to frame whether the problem is an inflation issue or a supply-driven shock, with weakness in demand not showing up in the conversations. The view is based on informal district contacts, not data.

“What you heard across the board from multiple sectors was nothing about demand drying up, all about cost pressures.”at 50:26