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Kurt Reiman: latest market views
UBS Global Wealth Management
Summary
Kurt Reiman is Head of Fixed Income for the Americas in the UBS Chief Investment Office, which he rejoined in June 2024 after about ten years as a senior investment strategist at the BlackRock Investment Institute.
Chorus has 11 views from Kurt Reiman across 2 episodes on UBS On-Air since October 13, 2026.
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Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Fiscal improvement from planned or legislated measures is unlikely; deficits may stay as large as today.
Because the election produced divided government and a need for compromise, Reiman expects 'forcing mechanisms' to shape outcomes. As a result, whatever fiscal improvement was planned or legislated is unlikely to fully materialise, and deficits could remain as large as they are now. He expects less improvement in the fiscal picture than was hoped.
“there's going to be what I call forcing mechanisms that will ultimately result in the whatever planned or legislated improvement in the fiscal picture is unlikely to materialize in full and we may even have deficits as large as they are now.”at 5:02
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Day takeaways - Markets, policy & positioning ·
Lame-duck reconciliation unlikely; debt limit and spending slip to 2027, favouring defense over Medicaid cuts.
Reiman does not see how a lame-duck reconciliation bill covering spending and the debt limit gets done. Some senators who were primaried out may have little incentive to vote. The debt-limit discussion, together with funding and appropriations, therefore moves into next year, and the eventual mix is likely to tilt toward defense with some postponement of Medicaid and other cuts. It is not yet clear whether this gets resolved in 2027 or 2028.
“I just don't see how we get a reconciliation bill that deals with spending and the debt limit... So that pushes debt limit discussions off into next year together with funding and appropriations. That means that the mix is likely to be more defense and some postponement of the Medicaid and other cuts.”at 5:36
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Day takeaways - Markets, policy & positioning ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Election results won't stop AI data center buildout; terms and pricing may get less favourable for developers.
Reiman advises caution against reading the election as a data-centre moratorium signal, since this was already known and the change is in the terms under which projects get built. AI was in the exit polls but not among the top one to three issues. These are economic development projects that can be made more convincing to local voters. The buildout continues, though it may slow slightly at the margin and developers may face less favourable pricing.
“the idea that there's a large enough data center backlash emerging from the results last night, AI was in the exit polls, but it wasn't number one, two or three of the issues... So the AI build out continues, the terms will change. It might become the pricing may be less favorable to the developers, but we still think it gets done.”at 7:32
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Day takeaways - Markets, policy & positioning ·
US global standing & alliances
Expect more of the same US foreign policy; Trump unlikely to moderate and Congress can't restrain him.
Reiman argues that presidents in their last two years often turn to foreign policy. He expects Trump not to moderate his views after this result. Congress is unlikely to mount a large enough offensive against the executive branch to restrain him, so the foreign policy seen in the first two years should continue.
“I think we have to expect a lot of the same from what we saw in the first two years in the last two years... It's very unlikely that in an outcome like this, that Trump is going to moderate on his opinions.”at 8:13
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Day takeaways - Markets, policy & positioning ·
Persistent energy, affordability and tariff concerns make the 2028 outlook very difficult for Republicans.
Reiman argues that if war, energy prices, affordability and tariffs remain the top issues and stay in the headlines for the next couple of years, that explains why Democrats outperformed the polls. Given that backdrop, the political picture for Republicans in 2028 looks very difficult, though the election is still a long way off.
“it just makes it a very difficult still a long way off, but it just makes the picture very difficult for Republicans in 2028.”at 9:15
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Day takeaways - Markets, policy & positioning ·
Rate cuts won't be a straight line; moderating growth and inflation next year lets the Fed step aside.
Reiman expects healthy but moderating economic growth and inflation into next year, which lets the Fed step aside from policy. He sees that as positive for both equities and fixed income. The path to lower rates will not be linear, however, and fiscal deficits and high nominal growth keep yields from falling as far as they might.
“our view is it's not going to be a straight line to lower rates, but that a moderating and economic growth into next year. Still healthy economic activity, but a moderation of growth and inflation allows the Fed to step aside.”at 14:30
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Day takeaways - Markets, policy & positioning ·
Bond yields have higher lows, but safe fixed income still offers attractive yields of roughly 5.5–6.25%.
Next year's nominal GDP growth is still high and deficits are not improving, so bond yields will have higher lows than before. Reiman does not see this as a barrier to bond investing. He points to a safe portfolio that can generate yields above 5.5%, 6% and 6.25%, which he says is rare, so fixed income is still attractive as diversification after strong equity performance.
“That just means that we have higher lows for bond yields. But that's not an impediment to investing in bonds. Far from it. We're talking about a safe portfolio that can generate yields in excess of 5.5%, 6%, 6.25%, that's not something we see very often.”at 15:32
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Day takeaways - Markets, policy & positioning ·
CIO's fixed income focus is primarily on credit, with some preferreds for clients willing to take rate risk.
Reiman describes CIO's fixed income positioning as attractive, with yields of 5.5% to 6.25% available in a safe portfolio. For clients willing to do so, the team takes some interest rate risk through preferreds. Its primary focus, however, is credit.
“we're really primarily focusing our attention on credit.”at 16:31
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Day takeaways - Markets, policy & positioning ·
Congressional control is genuinely in play this midterm, with previously improbable Senate battlegrounds.
Kurt calls this midterm consequential because control of Congress is genuinely in play. Several Senate races that would have seemed improbable battlegrounds not long ago are now competitive. He uses this to argue that investors have good reason to watch Washington, while noting that the report's focus is on the effects beyond it.
“Control of congress is genuinely in play, and there are several senate races that would have seemed improbable battlegrounds not that long ago.”at 1:38
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Watch - Foreign capital, state capitals ·
White House keeps significant authority over trade and foreign policy under leading midterm scenarios.
Kurt argues that the midterm outcome will not hand Congress control over the policy areas that matter most to foreign governments. Even under the leading scenarios, the White House is likely to keep significant authority in trade, foreign policy, fiscal and technology policy. Even in a divided-government scenario, the executive branch still wields significant authority. Foreign governments are therefore assessing how durable and how direction-setting US policy will be, based on the first two years of the administration. Kurt's expectation is that the White House will keep substantial authority over trade and foreign policy regardless of the outcome, and that Congress's influence will be limited.
“Even under our leading scenarios, the White House is likely to retain significant authority in most of these areas.”at 2:26
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Watch - Foreign capital, state capitals ·
Persistent US fiscal deficits are pushing up bond yields in European countries.
Kurt says European governments are assessing the implications of persistent US fiscal deficits and their possible impact on bond yields. He cites the fact that bond yields have risen in many European countries that are facing pressure. He presents this as a transmission channel through which US fiscal policy reaches foreign markets. The argument is mostly framed as a concern and is supported by an observed rise in European yields, not a detailed causal analysis.
“what are the implications of these persistent US fiscal deficits and the impact that that could have on bond yields? And we've seen bond yields rising in many European countries”at 4:37
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: Election Watch - Foreign capital, state capitals ·
Shows
- UBS On-Air · 2 episodes
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