Speaker · Updated
John Mowrey: latest market views
NFJ Investment Group
Summary
John Mowrey, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer, executive managing director and senior portfolio manager at Virtus affiliate NFJ Investment Group, a value-focused manager, and a frequent CNBC and Bloomberg market commentator.
Chorus has 18 views from John Mowrey across 2 episodes on Prof G Markets since October 7, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Generac Holdings, NVIDIA and Texas Instruments; bearish on CoreWeave.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave is highly exposed as a debt-laden neocloud; will be hit hardest by any capex slowdown or higher rates
Mowrey says the recent selloff reflects credit-market concerns around CoreWeave's bonds, and that neocloud companies, which are specialised data-centre operators, carry a lot of debt. If the economy or AI capex slows even a little, these firms will be the most exposed. He ties this to a 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, which directly raises the cost of capital for the most debt-financed companies. Hyperscalers can largely self-finance, so they are less affected. He concludes CoreWeave-type names are rightly being treated with caution.
“these companies that are very exposed to kind of the neo cloud build out... those have a lot of debt. And if you have slowdown in the economy or a little bit of a slowdown in, you know, CapEx spending, those are gonna be the most exposed”at 3:45
A 10-year Treasury yield above 5% raises borrowing costs for the most debt-financed AI companies
Mowrey points out that the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%. He argues this will have a direct effect on the cost of capital for companies most exposed to debt financing. Hyperscalers can largely fund their buildout from their own cash flow, so higher rates hurt them less than leveraged neocloud operators such as CoreWeave.
“you've got the ten year, you know, over five percent. That's gonna have a direct impact on the cost of capital for the companies that are the most exposed to debt financing.”at 4:40
Texas InstrumentsBullish
Texas Instruments is an attractive, over-punished semiconductor stock growing over 50% with a 2% dividend yield
Mowrey argues that many AI-linked stocks have been over-punished and that the semiconductor space has attractive names. He points to Texas Instruments, which he says is growing at over 50% year over year and pays a 2% dividend yield. He presents this as evidence of an opportunity created by the recent dislocation.
“you've got stocks like Texas Instruments. The stock is growing at over 50% year over year, 2% dividend yield.”at 5:38
NVIDIABullish
Nvidia, the standout chip stalwart, trades under 15 times forward earnings, which is attractive
Mowrey calls Nvidia the standout stalwart of the semiconductor group. He says it trades under 15 times forward earnings, and he cites that low multiple as one of the attractive opportunities on the chip side. He frames this as part of a broader set of AI names that the market has over-punished.
“NVIDIA, is obviously kind of the, you know, the standout stalwart of the group, trading at, you know, under, 15 times earnings on a forward basis.”at 5:57
Generac HoldingsBullish
Generac, which makes data-centre cooling and backup generators, has pulled back and has a growing pipeline
Mowrey says Generac is involved in HVAC and cooling systems needed for data centres, as well as backup generators. Those shares have also pulled back significantly. He cites a recent Amazon deal as evidence that the company's pipeline is expanding, which he sees as an opportunity created by the selloff.
“Companies like Generac that are involved in kind of the HVAC systems and the cooling systems needed for some of these data centers and the backup generators... Amazon did a deal with them recently, which, you know, I think really extends the pipeline for them.”at 5:59
The dot-com bust created guardrails that may make the AI buildout more durable than expected
Mowrey argues the 1999-2000 tech bubble was a gift to today's AI boom because it created guardrails. Investors constantly ask whether this is 1999 or 2000, and circular financing is under scrutiny. He notes AI spending has continued despite restrictive interest rates. He sees that combination of scrutiny and tight money as a setup that could make the buildout more durable than people expect.
“maybe the tech bubble back in the late nineties and... peaking in March 2000, maybe in the biggest gift that we could have ever given the AI boom today, because I think what that did, Ed, is it created some guardrails.”at 8:25
Investor appetite for big IPOs may be richer than assumed, given SpaceX's large market-cap debut
Mowrey points to the market cap SpaceX commanded in its IPO relative to its earnings power. He says the market absorbed a very large IPO recently, which suggests investor appetite may be stronger than people assume. He adds that Anthropic will be scrutinised heavily as the first big AI IPO, and that the return-on-capital threshold for AI investment is rising.
“I think the market appetite might be a little bit richer than maybe we're, you know, all assuming to some degree because it absorbed, you know, a very large IPO recently.”at 11:11
Credit repricing, not AI, is driving market narrowness and punishing small and mid-cap stocks
Mowrey argues the market has narrowed because credit has been repriced. Rates did not fall as investors expected at the start of the year, partly because of the Fed leadership change. That repricing has hit smaller companies and small and mid-cap firms, which are most exposed to credit. He thinks this is a bigger driver of narrowness than the AI trade or Nvidia propping up the index.
“one of the things that is driving the narrowness of the market is the repricing of credit... and it's really punished some of the smaller stocks.”at 12:50
A prolonged Iran conflict keeps inflation pressure on; resolution would bring oil relief and easier rates
Mowrey says that if the conflict in Iran drags on, it will keep pressure on inflation numbers, which is a definite concern for markets. He argues Trump faces a political calendar and may escalate or change timetables depending on the midterm outcome. Escalation could push oil higher and is a downside risk. The flip side is that a resolution would bring oil down and allow a somewhat easier interest-rate environment.
“if the conflict in Iran continues to be drug out, that obviously is gonna keep pressure on the inflation numbers. So you were right. That is a definite concern.”at 14:51
Markets likely substantially higher by year-end; S&P at 18.5x forward earnings with 30% growth is a buy
Mowrey says he would be surprised if markets are not substantially higher by year end. He notes the S&P 500 trades at about 18.5 times forward earnings with roughly 30% earnings growth. He argues the risk of staying out of the market outweighs the risks on the horizon, because much of the long-run return comes in a few days. He caveats the view: a prolonged Iran conflict would keep pressure on inflation, and an oil-driven escalation is a downside risk. A resolution would bring easier rates and upside.
“I would be surprised if markets aren't substantially higher by year end.”at 14:51
S&P earnings growth near 38% keeps the market resilient; stocks look cheaper despite record highs.
Forward S&P earnings growth is near 38%, and the only other times earnings growth reached 30% or more were coming out of recessions (COVID, 2009, 2008). Despite the index hitting all-time highs, the market has gotten cheaper, at about 19 times forward earnings. Higher yields and oil are pushing the multiple down, which is textbook, but strong earnings are carrying the index to records and keeping it resilient.
“I think the reason that we've seen such resiliency is that we've got forward earnings at nearly 38% for the S and P.”at 3:53
Prof G Markets: Why The S&P Just Hit A Record High — Despite Soaring Yields ·
The AI trade may be a boom rather than a bubble, since earnings durability spans many sectors.
Mowrey argues that earnings strength is not confined to AI and tech but spans sectors, which points to a broad boom rather than a narrow speculative bubble. He concedes that the AI capex cycle, roughly $900 billion from hyperscalers, drives much of it. He also says markets do create bubbles because firms must keep investing to stay competitive, so the risk is in overbuilding, not in the investment itself.
“I might take the side that maybe we're mistaking a bubble for a boom.”at 5:40
Prof G Markets: Why The S&P Just Hit A Record High — Despite Soaring Yields ·
The rally is broad, not narrow; small caps are spring-loaded with 27% earnings growth.
Mowrey disputes the narrow-market narrative. Small caps and mid caps are up double digits this year, and refiners, industrial machinery and materials have performed strongly. He explains the recent small-cap pullback as tied to oil prices acting as a regressive tax and to rising rates hitting smaller firms harder, since they have more debt and less access to capital markets. With small-cap earnings growth at 27%, he sees them as spring-loaded.
“I think there's a misconception in the market that this is a narrow trade, and I keep hearing people say that only a handful of stocks are holding the market up. I would take the opposite side of that.”at 5:48
Prof G Markets: Why The S&P Just Hit A Record High — Despite Soaring Yields ·
NVIDIABullish
Nvidia's valuation multiple is very reasonable; the chip-stock rerating is warranted.
Semiconductor and AI names sold off after June, partly from technical selling when Russell indexes reconstituted and memory stocks with large weights were removed from value indexes. Semiconductor multiples are now among the lowest seen, and Nvidia's multiple is reasonable given its growth. Micron's stellar earnings show results keep coming through, so the rerating of tech stocks is warranted despite market doubts about the earnings.
“now you've got some of the lowest multiples we've seen. If you look at the multiple you're paying for Nvidia, Ed, I think it's very reasonable.”at 9:26
Prof G Markets: Why The S&P Just Hit A Record High — Despite Soaring Yields ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Circular financing is part of the ecosystem but a concern; independent demand must be proven.
Mowrey agrees the circular financing concern is important and needs watching. He notes Amazon's gains from its Anthropic investment, which also buys Amazon's chips, as an example. Some circularity is expected when the largest companies drive the capex cycle and their customers buy from them. He says the real tests are independent third-party demand and whether the investments are funded by debt rather than operating cash flow. The return on the AI trade is the key open question.
“The circular financing is something we've gotta pay very close attention to... the circular financing to some degree is part of the ecosystem.”at 11:29
Prof G Markets: Why The S&P Just Hit A Record High — Despite Soaring Yields ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Compute demand is still outpacing supply; compute contract prices may reprice higher.
Mowrey looks at the price and demand for compute and sees both pointing higher. He says the market is still pretty constrained, and that contract prices for compute may reprice higher. This supports his view that the AI build-out is not overbuilt yet and that the spending has strong demand behind it.
“everything there points to that it's going higher and that actually contracts may reprice higher for compute ed.”at 14:28
Prof G Markets: Why The S&P Just Hit A Record High — Despite Soaring Yields ·
Lower oil would pull yields down quickly and let stocks rip; the upside risk is substantial.
With bond yields above 5% and oil around $100, Mowrey sees both as drags on the market. If oil falls, interest rates should come off quickly and the market should rally. He says markets would be substantially higher if the Iran conflict had been resolved, and that the conflict's length is keeping a coiled spring underwater. Investors are offside because they are decomposing whether the AI trade is real, which could mean missing the upside move.
“If you see oil prices move lower, interest rates should come off quickly and the market should rip.”at 15:10
Prof G Markets: Why The S&P Just Hit A Record High — Despite Soaring Yields ·
CPI should roll over over the next year, giving the Fed room to ease rates.
The two-year yield has pushed the Fed's hand, and CPI should roll over over the next twelve months. This is because of the mechanics of the calculation: inflation needs its rate of change to slow, not prices to fall, so even with oil elevated the year-over-year CPI should fall. That would let the Fed ease rates potentially within a year, which Mowrey sees as bullish for markets if earnings growth holds.
“The CPI should roll over over the next twelve months, if nothing else, just because of the calculation.”at 15:51
Prof G Markets: Why The S&P Just Hit A Record High — Despite Soaring Yields ·
Shows
- Prof G Markets · 2 episodes
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