‘Reminds Me Of 2008’: The Next Bust & Boom Nobody's Talking About | John Feneck

First Tellurium

• John Feneck · Feneck ConsultingBullish

  First Tellurium is a cheap tellurium play with AI data-center cooling and drone uses; bullish.

  China and Russia produce 84% of tellurium, and he says those markets are not helping the US. He says First Tellurium is the only publicly traded tellurium junior and that he owns it. Its technology can heat or cool things such as AI data centers, which get very hot, and it has solar and defense applications, including drones. The company has a market cap of about $20M, so a government check of $10-20M would change its valuation.

  “And these guys have technology, which I like because I know you follow technology too, that basically can heat or cool things like AI data centers get super hot.”at 19:29

First Phosphate

• John Feneck · Feneck ConsultingBullish

  First Phosphate is one of three North American LFP battery-material miners in a China-dominated market; he owns it.

  China runs 99% of the LFP battery market, and North America has only three companies that mine for it. Igneous phosphate does not exist in North America, so he says First Phosphate is one of only three alternatives beyond China. He says he owns a small position. The company moved up to the Nasdaq last month.

  “But that's interesting to me because the LFP battery market is 99% run by China. Like literally three North American companies go mine for this stuff. One of them is called first phosphate, one that I tracked. And in full disclosure, I own a little bit.”at 22:43

KAZR

• John Feneck · Feneck ConsultingBullish

  KAZR's Kazakhstan tungsten project is a monster deposit with a 50-year life; he owns it and is bullish.

  He says KAZR is a Kazakhstan tungsten play with a fifty-year mine life and a monster deposit. He argues that the Trump family's investment in it signals the project's quality, and that the company's website carries a Washington DC address. He says the company has flipped to back US defense-metal efforts rather than aligning with China or Russia. He expects production in a couple of years and says large investor backing could bring big capital into the stock.

  “But, you know, there's an old saying on Wall Street, follow the money. Why are the Trumps investing in k a z r? It's a Kazakhstani tungsten play. Why? It's a fifty year mine life. It's a monster deposit.”at 27:52

Bitcoin

Across the shows: 11 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• John Feneck · Feneck ConsultingBearish

  Bitcoin's institutional inflows and ETF launches signal a euphoric top; investors should get out.

  He argues that when a market becomes euphoric and everyone is in, as with lithium and ETFs, it is time to leave. He cites Bitcoin, where Vanguard, Fidelity and BlackRock are all in and the price moved from above $100,000 to a lower level. He concludes that too many participants make the trade a bad idea.

  “I mean, look at Bitcoin, man. You know? Vanguard, Fidelity, Black Rock are all in. All of a sudden, Bitcoin goes from over 100,000 or wherever it ended up.”at 33:02

Western Star Resources

• John Feneck · Feneck ConsultingBullish

  Western Star's US tungsten projects show fast progress and high surface grades; he likes the stock and owns it.

  Western Star has three US projects: one in New Mexico and two in Nevada. It picked up the New Mexico project in June and has done in four or five months about what a company might do in a year and a half. Historical tungsten grades are around 0.15-0.2%, while its surface samples are around 0.3-0.5%. Tungsten deposits can be found near surface, which lowers drilling cost. He expects investors to get excited about the grade.

  “The tungsten grade, David, is historically around point one five or point two. These guys are pulling samples out of the ground... at point three, point five, like much higher grade right at surface.”at 36:27

Critical minerals & rare earths

• John Feneck · Feneck Consulting

  The US-China mineral truce is not real; China still holds leverage over US critical mineral supply.

  The US-China truce was agreed in November of last year and extended by two months to January 10 of next year. US Exim Bank dedicated $100B to critical minerals 13 days after the truce, which he reads as a sign Washington does not believe it. He says the market has sold off critical minerals stocks because investors now think the truce is real. He says he talks to the US government monthly and knows it is not happening. Japan was also cut off by China from tungsten in June and July.

  “Why do they do that if everything's fine? Right? Like, this is what I... I just don't believe that this truce is real.”at 14:41

• John Feneck · Feneck Consulting

  China's tungsten dominance and no US output mean supply stays short until 2029-2030 mines start.

  China produces 81% of tungsten and Russia and North Korea another 6%, so 87% of global supply comes from three countries he says will not help the US. The US has not produced tungsten in eleven years, and new mines are not due until 2029 and 2030. Japan is reportedly begging China for tungsten and not receiving it, and he concludes that the US must create its own supply by permitting projects faster. He calls tungsten a priority for 2027 because more curbs are coming.

  “So tungsten is 81% produced in China. It's 6% produced in Russia, North Korea. So 87% of global production as of this moment comes from three countries who will not help The US in my opinion.”at 18:35

• John Feneck · Feneck Consulting

  US mine restarts take years, not months; fast-tracking is working but far too slowly.

  The March 2025 executive order and fast-tracking have not produced a single new mine in production in 19 months. He says a restart requires permitting, a PEA and a PFS, and that some projects have been idle since the 1940s and 1950s. Fast-tracking is working, citing Paramount Gold, but it is much slower than needed. He argues the US is far behind China, and building capacity will take years.

  “It's years. It's not months. It's years. ...Fast forward to October when we're recording this, and that's nineteen months later, and not a single mine is in production since then. So the fast tracking is working, but it's working way slower than it needs to.”at 25:50

• John Feneck · Feneck Consulting

  Government should write $20-50M checks to critical mining projects, which would rerate small caps.

  Small DOW and DOE checks of $5-10M are too small to move the needle, so he argues they should be $20-50M. He cites First Tellurium, with a $20M market cap, as a company whose stock would be rerated by a $10-20M check. He points to Elmet, which received a $450M check and rose from $16 to $23 in two or three weeks, and to Paramount Gold, whose stock rose fivefold after fast-track. Project Vault and the $112B in Exim financing have not yet produced results.

  “the DOW, the DOE need to start handing out checks, and they can't be the size of $5,000,000, $10,000,000... They need to be, you know, of the variety of 20 to $50,000,000.”at 27:21

• John Feneck · Feneck Consulting

  Tungsten's rally reflects a real shortage, unlike lithium: no ETF, no futures, few listed producers.

  Tungsten's spot price has risen since his last appearance, which he attributes to a supply-demand gap rather than hype. Unlike lithium, tungsten cannot be bought through an ETF, has no futures market, and has only about 20 listed producers compared with over 100 for lithium. He says lithium became parabolic and was then sold when ETFs launched, and he believes tungsten is still under the radar. He argues that when ETFs and mass investor enthusiasm arrive, investors should get out, as with Bitcoin.

  “First off, tungsten as a metal, you cannot buy it through an ETF tracker.”at 32:13

Defense

• John Feneck · Feneck Consulting

  Rising escalation and eroding trust in the US will push countries to raise military budgets.

  He expects countries to spend more on the military because conflict keeps escalating. He says countries no longer trust the US as much and are building their own defenses. He cites a list of countries that have become targets this year, including Cuba, Venezuela and Iran, which few expected at the start of the year.

  “They don't trust The US as much as they used to, and they're building their defenses.”at 21:33

• John Feneck · Feneck Consulting

  US munitions stocks are depleted after Iran strikes, so tungsten and antimony demand will surge.

  Tungsten is essential to tanks, Patriot missiles and Tomahawks, and he says the US has depleted its munitions inventory after firing many missiles at Iran this year. He says that if the US rebuilt ammunition stocks quickly, tungsten and antimony would be the most in-demand metals. He sees the munitions shortage as a real story that some people do not want discussed.

  “You cannot make tanks without tungsten. You cannot make Patriot missiles without tungsten... we put a lot of missiles over in Iran this year, and we've depleted our inventory.”at 33:55

AI bubble & tech valuations

• John Feneck · Feneck Consulting

  AI trade is ingrained in the S&P, so index holders face hidden tech concentration and a market smackdown risk.

  The AI trade has been in the market for years and is now deeply embedded in index performance. Leadership is very narrow, with the Mag Seven leading as in 2025, and semiconductors sold off sharply this summer after weak sector earnings. He argues the risk is that index funds, which many retirees own, are overweight AI and tech, so a 70-year-old holding the S&P is effectively about 40% tech. He says the thesis of a market smackdown is playing out but has not yet hit the Nasdaq and S&P. Warnings from AI figures over a weekend produced no market reaction, which he reads as a sign the trade is already priced in.

  “...that's the risk to me is that it's been overweight in things like the S and P where people have retirement money. A 70 year old does not wanna be 40% tech, but they are if they own the S and P.”at 4:03

US rates & the Fed

• John Feneck · Feneck Consulting

  Fears of multiple Fed hikes next year are overblown; the Fed has only raised rates a quarter point.

  He says the 10-year Treasury yield rose from about 3.96% on March 2, the day the war started, to about 5.30%, a 134 bp move, yet the Fed has only raised rates by a quarter point. He argues the market's anxiety comes from 'what ifs' that a Fed raising rates two or three times next year would deliver. He says the average investor should be told that scenario is not going to happen. He also notes the recent inflation readings have moderated and points to the October 14 CPI release as the next key test.

  “I would tell the average investor that's simply not going to happen.”at 4:52

US stock market outlook

• John Feneck · Feneck Consulting

  Hold 12-20% cash now; October seasonality and the November 3 election call for lower exposure.

  October is one of the worst months for the market going back to 1929, and volatility is approaching. The November 3 election and an October 28 Fed meeting add event risk, so he argues investors should not be fully invested. His firm has moved to 12-20% cash from time to time over ten years, which has lowered its beta relative to fully invested ETFs.

  “you wanna keep a larger percentage in cash because we are approaching volatility. Right? Seasonal volatility in our market, October being the first or second worst market month going back to nineteen twenty nine's”at 6:15

US housing

• John Feneck · Feneck Consulting

  Cooling hot housing markets resemble 2008; a real estate slide into next year would hit broad market wealth.

  Real estate stocks have fallen since August 19, when Treasury intervened in the bond market, after rising before. He cites Phoenix, the top US growth market for new business last year, which now has its highest housing inventory in eleven years, and says Vancouver shows similar signs. He compares hot markets cooling now to Miami, Vegas and Phoenix before the 2008-2009 crash. He argues that if real estate falls into next year, households will feel less wealthy and the broad market will suffer.

  “...if real estate falls into next year, you're gonna have a problem in the broad market because people feel less wealthy.”at 7:53

US consumer

• John Feneck · Feneck Consulting

  US consumers are overleveraged, with record card defaults, and spending will fall once a recession is confirmed.

  Credit card defaults are at an all-time high, which he takes as evidence that households are still leveraged to the hilt. Spending has not dropped yet, but he expects consumers to pull back once a confirmed recession arrives and they 'get the memo'. The host argues much of current spending is funded with money people do not have, which Feneck does not dispute.

  “If you look at credit card defaults, it's at an all time high. So people are still leveraged to the hilts.”at 9:03

Robotics & autonomous vehicles

• John Feneck · Feneck Consulting

  Drone and robot warfare is the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, so drone demand will grow.

  He says the Russia-Ukraine war is evolving toward drone and robot warfare with tactical, not just ground, operations. He argues that is why powerful investors are putting money into military drone companies. He also points to uses beyond the military, such as delivery and firefighting, where drones could help in wildfires.

  “But if you look at what Russia Ukraine is evolving into, it's drone warfare and robot warfare. It's not just, you know, people on the ground. It's tactical.”at 20:07