Great Companies, Beaten-Down Stocks: Booking & Pool Corp with Jonathan Boyar

Pool

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupBullish

  Pool Corp at 15–16x earnings is a good buy after its COVID-era bubble has deflated.

  Pool was a 2009 profile at about $20 a share. It rose to 55 times earnings during COVID, which Boyar calls ridiculous. The stock has since fallen from about $500 to $162, now at 15–16 times earnings. The company has very little leverage, a strong management team and a good board. Pool construction peaked at around 120,000 pools a year against a normal 80,000, and is now about 60,000, so Boyar expects mean reversion. He sees low insider ownership, little debt, an exhausted shareholder base and a possible takeover. He says a three-to-five-year view should work out.

  “And to us, it's 16 times earnings, 15 times earnings, we're willing to take our chances. At 55 times earnings, that's ridiculous.”at 24:34

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupBullish

  Small and mid caps like Pool Corp are under-covered and hated, a good place to look for bargains.

  Boyar suggests looking where other investors are not, or where a stock is currently hated. He points to small and mid caps such as Pool Corp, which nobody cares about. These companies have very little analyst coverage and poor sentiment, which he sees as an opportunity. He qualifies this by saying there is no single place to look.

  “small and mid cap companies like Pool Corp that no one cares about. I think those are ones that have very little analyst coverage, have pretty bad sentiment.”at 47:53

Booking Holdings

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupBullish

  Booking's AI-agent selloff is overdone; its supplier network is hard to replicate.

  After the Muse AI agent launch hit Booking and Airbnb, Goldman's desk basket called Booking unnecessary. Boyar calls that ridiculous. Google and TripAdvisor have tried and failed to take over the space. Booking signs small and mid-sized boutique hotels and makes listing very profitable for them, which is hard to copy. Muse would struggle with cancellations, hotel relationships and EU regulation. The stock now trades at a discounted multiple, and Boyar expects the market to become rational about this high-quality business. He says his firm is buying names like Booking that have sold off on AI fears, with a time horizon of six months to a year.

  “Booking is competitively advantaged, and it would be very difficult for someone to replicate what they've done.”at 5:00

Airbnb

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupBullish

  AI-agent fears overshoot for Airbnb, which owns the supply and benefits from AI.

  Boyar argues the Muse selloff hit Airbnb even harder than Booking, and that this is more absurd. An AI agent cannot easily replace Airbnb's supply, because it would have to sign up every homeowner itself. Boyar thinks AI agents will help travel companies by making booking easier, so AI is a beneficiary of these companies. Airbnb said on its last earnings call how much it is saving and how much more productive AI is making it. He concludes the market has overshot. Forced and short-term selling creates the opportunity for investors with a horizon of six months to a year or more.

  “But Airbnb has supply. How is Muse going to go out and... ask every homeowner, will you rent out your home for you?”at 7:12

Restaurant Brands International

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupBullish

  Restaurant Brands is cheap, well run and in turnaround, with a 3–3.5% yield.

  QSR owns Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs. Burger King North America was the problem child, but it is now in a turnaround that seems to be working, and same-store sales are positive again. Executive chair Patrick Doyle turned around Domino's, and is running the same playbook at Burger King, including the Whopper redesign and clamshell packaging. Popeyes has a chicken-quality problem that still needs fixing. The company is cheap and pays a 3–3.5% yield while investors wait. QSR also bought a franchisee's roughly 1,000 Carrols restaurants, which will be refranchised over the next couple of years, making the business more capital-light.

  “they are in the middle of a turnaround that seems to be working.”at 10:38

Madison Square Garden Sports

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupBullish

  MSG Sports' Knicks and Rangers are undervalued; the October split should unlock value.

  MSG Sports has an enterprise value of about $10 billion for the Knicks and Rangers together. Recent sports deals show the gap: a minority stake in the Islanders sold for about $3 billion, and the Lakers went for $12 billion in what Boyar calls a forced sale. Splitting the company into separate Knicks and Rangers companies in October would let investors buy each team and highlight the valuation gap. The company could then sell minority stakes and use the proceeds for buybacks. A tax rule, Section 162(m), disallows deductions for the top five employees' pay at publicly traded companies. That hits the Knicks, the only pure publicly traded team, hard, and could force a sale or a change in the law. The Dolans have a history of selling assets.

  “So it makes absolutely no sense that you can buy both the Knicks and the Rangers for $10,000,000,000”at 16:31

Atlanta Braves Holdings

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupBullish

  Atlanta Braves Holdings is undervalued; applying the Angels sale multiple implies $88 a share.

  Atlanta Braves Holdings is a multi-billion-dollar market-cap company that owns the Braves and valuable real estate next to the ballpark. Boyar takes the Angels sale, which he calls a decent comp, and applies the same metrics. On that basis a $50 stock would be worth $88. The owner, John Malone, is rational, and he or his heirs will likely sell the business at some point.

  “BATRK, which is the symbol for Atlanta Braves Holdings, which is a $50 stock, it would be an $88 stock.”at 19:06

Markel Group

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupBullish

  Markel is attractive at 1.2x book if its insurance underwriting turnaround continues, though it won't be the next Berkshire.

  Markel trades around 1.2x book after missing the hard insurance market by growing policies poorly and entering reinsurance, which was a disaster. The one division that did well was international, and the new leader comes from there. Early results are promising, with combined ratios falling. Lowering the combined ratio raises margins, and buybacks at 1.2x book would add value. Its industrial businesses, financial assets and Berkshire stake (its largest position) add to the case. Governance is a concern: the CEO is now also chairman and the Markel family is no longer controlling. An activist, Chana/Jana, is pushing for more buybacks. Japanese insurers have large appetites for US insurers, so a takeover is possible. Boyar says it is not the next Berkshire but could be a good long-term holding.

  “I mean, I think it's an attractive investment. I think there's only one Berkshire Hathaway. I think Markel has great days ahead of it.”at 40:06

Microsoft

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupBullish

  Microsoft got cheap enough earlier this year to buy again; it is one of the firm's larger positions.

  Earlier this year Boyar's firm bought Microsoft for the first time in many years because the stock had fallen to levels he found quite interesting. Microsoft is already one of the firm's larger positions, since it was bought between roughly 2000 and 2007 and again in 2012, and little has been sold since. The buy was prompted by the software sell-off, the 'SaaS apocalypse', which pulled software valuations down.

  “Earlier this year, if we were talking... I was saying, for the first time in many years, buying Microsoft because I think it got down to levels that were quite interesting.”at 47:05

Salesforce

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupBullish

  Salesforce got caught in the SaaS sell-off and is now cheap, after being too expensive for years.

  Boyar lists Salesforce among the companies caught in the 'SaaS apocalypse' sell-off. He says it was a name the firm always wanted to own but was always too expensive. It has now fallen to pretty cheap levels, which makes it an attractive opportunity in his view.

  “companies that got caught up in the SaaS apocalypse, CRM was another one, it was a name that we've always wanted to own, it was always too expensive, and then it got down to pretty cheap.”at 47:29

Tesla

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupUncertain

  Tesla's cybercab robotaxi timing has repeatedly slipped and it is well behind on regulation, though Musk is never to bet against.

  Boyar says the market has been waiting for Musk to roll out cybercabs since around 2020. Tesla would also need operations infrastructure to clean and maintain vehicles and keep them running, which is much harder than just putting cars on the road. Tesla is 'way behind' on regulation, and cities are slow to approve these services. Boyar says he would never bet against Musk, but he doesn't believe robotaxis will be winner-take-all. He is therefore sceptical about the timing and scale of Tesla's robotaxi plans while keeping an open mind.

  “We've been waiting for Elon Musk to roll out cybercabs since, like, 2020... They're way behind in terms of the regulation. It's not easy to get cities to approve these things.”at 48:35

Uber Technologies

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupBullish

  Uber should win as robotaxis fragment, since peak-demand economics favour its hybrid platform at a below-market multiple.

  Boyar argues Uber does well as long as there is not one winning autonomous vehicle company, because riders won't want six apps. Uber's value lies in peak-demand capacity, which a single owner like Waymo would struggle to fund capital-efficiently, since cars sit idle off-peak and cost about $100,000 each. Uber also runs the back-end operations, including cleaning and fleet logistics, and has a delivery business. Partnerships such as Lucid's will put cars on the road. Uber is still growing trips and revenue in cities where Waymo operates, so it is not losing share. It trades at a below-market multiple while growing 20-30% a year, and it is generating large cash flow, with about $10B of free cash flow expected next year and stock buybacks underway. Boyar expects hybrid fleets for many years.

  “as long as there's not just one autonomous vehicle company, they're gonna do quite well. People are not gonna want six different apps.”at 48:49

Waymo

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupBearish

  Waymo is a formidable competitor but has a long way to go to match Uber's ride volume and peak capacity.

  Boyar says Waymo has done a fantastic job and is a formidable competitor. However, it would have to roughly double its rides every year for seven or eight years to reach Uber's current scale. Peak-hour demand (about 7-10am and 4-7pm, plus some weekend times) requires many more cars than off-peak, and at around $100,000 per vehicle, the idle capacity is uneconomic for a standalone owner, especially in suburban and rural areas. Waymo's latest funding round valued it close to Uber, which Boyar takes as a sign of how much it still has to prove.

  “Waymo would have to, I think double the amount of rides every year for the next seven or eight years to get to where Uber is today. And Uber is growing. So Waymo is a long way to go.”at 51:19

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 11 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupBullish

  Nvidia trades at a below-market multiple; high-growth tech valuations are justified by faster growth and better quality.

  Responding to Carlisle's point about valuation dispersion, Boyar says the leading tech names are not blatantly expensive, with the exception of Tesla. Nvidia is selling at a below-market multiple. The companies at the top are more expensive than the rest of the market, but they are growing faster and are higher-quality businesses, so their valuations are justified. He explicitly says he is not telling listeners to go out and buy Nvidia.

  “Nvidia's selling at a below market multiple. And I'm not saying to go out and buy Nvidia. These companies aren't blatantly like except for Tesla, crazily expensive.”at 54:09

Nike

Across the shows: 4 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value GroupUncertain

  Nike's turnaround is tough after self-inflicted errors, but its brand is strong; the valuation may eventually be worth a look.

  Boyar blames Nike's slump on self-inflicted mistakes: it alienated retailers, produced bad products and ran a failed experiment with Amazon. This left room for smaller brands such as Hoka to take share. Athletes now have direct-to-consumer reach, so they need Nike less than they did in the Jordan era, which has weakened Nike's power. He still says turnarounds are tough but great brands can recover, and that a brand can be tarnished but is hard to ruin. Tax-loss selling could add pressure in the near term. Carlisle notes that the dividend yield (about 4.5%) may be cut, so the stock is only interesting at a cheap enough multiple.

  “Nike is also, they did everything that they shouldn't have done. They alienated retailers, they had bad products. Turnarounds are tough, but they are great brands.”at 59:41

US stock market outlook

• Jake Taylor · Farnam Street Investments / The Acquirers Podcast

  The market crash has already happened, but its damage is unevenly spread across stocks.

  Taylor cites breadth data: 59% of index constituents are more than 20% below all-time highs, 41% are more than 30% below, and 17 are 50% below. He concludes the crash may already be here but is not evenly distributed. The index is held up by AI-adjacent names, while most other stocks are in a quasi bear market.

  “It might be that the crash is here already. It's just not evenly distributed.”at 3:38

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value Group

  Market bifurcation is a long-standing feature; concentration in top names has grown, and equal weight rarely beats cap weight.

  Boyar agrees the market is bifurcated: the share of the top 10 companies has risen considerably. However, he says bifurcation has always existed. The equal-weight index rarely outperforms the cap-weighted index, although there are periods when it does so significantly. He attributes part of the concentration to 401(k) money flowing into the S&P 500 every month, which allocates more shares to the largest companies such as Google and Facebook.

  “it's always been a bifurcation in the market. And it's very rarely that the equal weight... outperforms the cap weighted index, although there are periods of time where they do it outperform significantly.”at 54:32

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value Group

  US stocks should be reasonably fine over the next couple of years, neither expensive nor cheap, favouring stock pickers.

  Boyar says he is US-centric and that the next couple of years should be reasonably fine. Stocks are neither particularly expensive nor particularly cheap. Individual stocks are selling significantly below what they are worth, so patient investors should do well. He admits he has no idea about the next two or three years, but expects good results over five or ten years if investors hold undervalued names.

  “I think the next couple of years should be reasonably fine. Stocks aren't particularly expensive and not particularly cheap.”at 57:59

US consumer

• Tobias Carlisle · Acquirers Funds / The Acquirers Podcast

  The US consumer is struggling, with confidence below 2020 and 2008 levels, shown in restaurant stocks.

  Carlisle cites consumer confidence as worse now than during COVID in 2020 and after the 2008 recession. He says the survey is soft and might reflect sampling problems or a generally more easily upset public. Assuming the number is valid, though, he thinks the consumer is struggling. He links that to restaurant stocks, which have been beaten up, possibly because of cost pressures such as rising rates and gas prices, not only AI.

  “I get that this is a very soft number, but consumer confidence is worse now than it was in 2020 in COVID and in 2008 after we had gone into recession.”at 9:12

GLP-1s & obesity drugs

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value Group

  GLP-1 drugs are a factor for restaurants, but Americans will still eat burgers and fries.

  Boyar says GLP-1 drugs are a factor in restaurant demand, but restaurant companies are adjusting with smaller portions and different products. He is unsure how long people stay on the drugs, given their side effects. He expects people to eat somewhat less but says Americans will still eat hamburgers and fries. He treats GLP-1s as one part of a mix of pressures on restaurant stocks, alongside gas prices and a weak consumer, and not as the single main driver.

  “But people are still going to eat, maybe eat a little bit less. But I think Americans are still going to eat their hamburgers and fries.”at 13:03

Sports, betting & prediction markets

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value Group

  Sports franchises are scarce collectibles that rise in value, though they are poor operating businesses.

  Boyar argues that billionaires with egos, private equity involvement and a limited number of teams (about 30 each in the NBA and NHL) make sports franchises scarce, so they keep rising in value. Prices have climbed from the Yankees' $11 million sale in the 1960s to Apollo's $12 billion stake deal. As an operating business, a franchise is not great for a cash-flow investor, and owners make their money when they sell. Still, rising national TV contracts, including the recent NBA deal and a 2029 baseball deal, plus expansion fees of about $5 billion split across the league, add cash flow.

  “It's a scarcity. You're buying a publicly traded collectible.”at 21:03

Private equity

• Tobias Carlisle · Acquirers Funds / The Acquirers Podcast

  Private equity has been quiet at the small end, with portfolios stacked from the cycle and exits hard despite a busy IPO market.

  Carlisle observes that private equity has been fairly quiet at the smaller end of the market. He thinks PE firms are stacked with the companies they bought through the cycle and are struggling to sell them, which he finds odd given that the IPO market has been pretty good this year, with plenty of supply.

  “It seems like private equity has been fairly quiet at the smaller end of town. I think they're, like, stacked to the gills with everything they bought through the cycle, and they're having a little bit of trouble offloading it”at 55:45

IPOs, M&A & deal activity

• Jonathan Boyar · Boyar Value Group

  The IPO market is not shutting down, but recent cancellations like Aura are worth monitoring.

  Boyar says the IPO market is not shutting down, but Aura and a few others have just cancelled their listings. He doesn't know if this is temporary or a sign of more to come. He also notes that the high count of IPOs was flattered by the fact that the vast majority of the activity came from one large company.

  “I don't wanna say shutting down. That's wrong, like Aura just canceled and a few others. Don't know if that's a temporary thing or a sign of more things to come.”at 56:14