Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 3rd, 2026

Anthropic

Across the shows: 84 speakers in other episodes, 101 bullish and 65 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Neutral

  Anthropic IPO valuation near $1.5 trillion, possibly lower by mid-November, as its capital needs weigh on it.

  Dan says the growth story is not the question for Anthropic. The question is monetization and how much capital it will need to raise. Anthropic may spend close to $500 billion through 2030, and losing an investment-grade credit rating would make meeting those commitments tougher. He calls $1.5 trillion a baseline that could go lower by mid-November. The deal still gets done in his view, but valuation will be the question. Anthropic is foundational to the AI trade, so the tech trade needs it to go public.

  “for anthropic, the growth is not the question. But I think it's just getting there and from a monetization perspective, the amount of capital they're going to need to raise.”at 22:58

Palantir Technologies

Across the shows: 10 speakers in other episodes, 9 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Palantir's AI use cases are accelerating, showing the fundamentals will prove out the AI thesis.

  Dan says that when you look at hyperscaler capex, which checks out, and at Palantir, the use cases are accelerating. He argues that the gut-check on AI stocks will be followed by fundamentals proving out, as he saw at Palantir, Apple and the hyperscalers.

  “You look at Palantir, the use cases, that's accelerating.”at 24:53

Alphabet

Across the shows: 53 speakers in other episodes, 40 bullish and 33 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.Bullish

  Alphabet's advertising business can get through AI disruption and stay strong.

  Dan lists Google advertising among the disruption causing the tech trade to be a gut check. He asks whether Alphabet can build while its advertising business remains strong, and says he thinks it can get through the disruption, though the sector will have winners and losers.

  “Where's Alphabet? Can they build and their advertising business still be strong? I think they can get through it.”at 26:42

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Bob Michele · J.P. Morgan Asset Management

  About 97GW of data-center power planned for 2028 is at risk if populist pushback grows.

  Drawing on Semafor's work, Bob says about 37 gigawatts of power production is coming online next year and is largely under construction. About 97 gigawatts is planned for 2028, and that is what is at risk from the elections if populist pushback on data centers builds. He notes 2028 is still about a year and a half away, so there could be bargaining, and says companies have lots of profits to share with communities.

  “there's 37 gigawatts of power production that are coming online next year. That's largely under construction. There's 97 that are planned for 2028. That's what's at risk with the elections.”at 7:15

• Tobin Marcus · Wolfe Research

  Data-center rules will tighten gradually; a Texas loss by Abbott would be the real market risk.

  Tobin says investors are talking about data center regulation a lot, but there is not much portfolio positioning yet. If Governor Abbott loses in Texas, he thinks that is the potentially material setback everyone in the trade has circled. Ohio is moving in a more restrictive direction, but most states can absorb the shift. Even the most strident critics want to build under conditions, not not at all. The impacts fall further in the future, and anything with shovels in the ground will not be affected right now. He is more worried about the data center trade being spooked if it is overextended.

  “If governor Abbott loses in Texas, I think that's the thing that pretty much everyone involved in this trade has circled as a potentially really material setback that could spook markets.”at 18:35

US elections & politics

• Bob Michele · J.P. Morgan Asset Management

  A Democratic midterm sweep is mixed for bonds: good for Treasuries, but a risk to credit.

  Bob says a blue wave is mixed for the bond market. It is good for Treasuries, but it puts credit at risk because a Congress emboldened to antagonize the administration would make fights over Supreme Court and Federal Reserve appointments, and debt ceilings, more controversial, and credit risk dislikes that animosity. He also says a Republican sweep would be the worst case for bonds, because it would bring fiscal spending expectations and renewed fears of borrow-and-spend.

  “I think it's mixed for the bond market. I think it's good for treasuries, and I think it puts credit at a bit of risk here because you're going to have a Congress that can be emboldened to antagonize the administration.”at 8:21

• Tobin Marcus · Wolfe Research

  Polls likely overstate Democratic strength, especially in redder states, so the error should favour Republicans.

  Tobin says big generic-ballot leads tend not to fully translate into results. More troublingly, Democratic gains from 2024 to 2026 have been much larger in redder places. That looks like the pattern of past polling errors in 2018 and 2022, when Democrats were overestimated most in redder areas. He thinks the error is clearly going to run in that direction, and the question is whether its size can overcome Democrats' current polling margins in key red states. Wolfe is not making the claim that polls always overstate Democrats; in 2022 it argued the opposite.

  “And then I think more troublingly, we have this very clear pattern where the blue shifts from 2024 to '26 have been much bigger in redder places, which looks a lot like the pattern of past polling error.”at 15:58

US Treasuries & yields

• Bob Michele · J.P. Morgan Asset Management

  Treasury should scrap the 20-year bond; front-end financing is easy and the 20-year is an orphan.

  Bob argues the 20-year bond supplies the long end and nobody likes it. It made sense in another era but not now. He would move that supply to the front end, where there is about $8 trillion in money market fund assets and plenty of liquidity, so Treasury can finance itself there with ease. He adds that the Treasury is still buying about $6 billion a month in the long end, so the combination gives nice support to long-end yields.

  “Get rid of the twenty year. Nobody likes it. It's supplying the long end... It was an orphan issue. We're going to just dump it into the front end where there's 8,000,000,000,000 in money market fund assets.”at 9:45

• Bob Michele · J.P. Morgan Asset Management

  Fed funds and the Treasury curve should converge near 4.5%; yields are unlikely to push well above 5%.

  After yields rose more than 100 basis points from below 4% to above 5% this year, Bob says the Fed funds rate and the Treasury curve can easily converge around 4.5%, a view JPMorgan put out in September and still holds. He expects fits and starts, with 4.8% as an interesting first level because it is the 100-day moving average and a retracement level. He thinks the days of pushing well above 5% are past for now. He also says the Fed funds rate can get into the mid-4s, which is far above zero but not yet the 5-6% range of this cycle.

  “I think we're at a point now where we can easily see the Fed funds rate and the Treasury yield curve converging around 4.5%. We put that out there in September. We still believe it.”at 11:43

Credit markets

• Bob Michele · J.P. Morgan Asset Management

  AI hyperscaler bond spreads widened 25-30bp while other deals moved only 2-4bp, showing AI-related credit is being priced differently.

  Using quarter-to-date yield changes (a small sample), Bob says spreads on AI and related hyperscaler issuance are out 25 to 30 basis points while the rest of the deals are out only 2 to 4 basis points. He says the market is differentiating, but there is still yield-seeking money and heavy supply. Issuers are becoming more sensitive, with some deals scaled back by about $5 billion. Oracle's deal still went fine, roughly 3.5 times oversubscribed, and non-tech AI-related deals were six times oversubscribed.

  “when you look at the AI and related, the hyperscalers, you're seeing credit spreads out 25 to 30 basis points. When you look at the rest of the deals, they're out two to four basis points.”at 3:39

US growth & recession risk

• Bob Michele · J.P. Morgan Asset Management

  Strong Q3 growth will be followed by some Q4 payback as higher rates slow the economy.

  Bob says higher rates do cost the economy and help to slow things down. He recognizes that the third quarter was strong, and expects some payback in the fourth quarter. He thinks the market is getting comfortable with the Fed funds rate in the mid-4s, which is still well above zero and above where it was months ago.

  “we recognize the third quarter was a strong quarter. There will be some payback in the fourth quarter.”at 12:34

Sports, betting & prediction markets

• Tobin Marcus · Wolfe Research

  Prediction markets have followed polls this cycle, so they are not a better signal and were wrong too.

  Tobin argues it is not possible this cycle to set polling aside and rely on betting markets, because they have followed polling closely at both the national and race level. When polls were very wrong, betting markets were wrong in the same way. The example is the Wisconsin Democratic governor race: Francesca Hong was a weak candidate yet was 95%-plus to win on the eve of the vote, then lost after a 15-point polling miss. Brazil also had huge misses. He says sophisticated betting participants should have sniffed out the weak candidate and the possible polling miss, but they did not.

  “So I don't really think that it's possible this cycle to look at the betting markets and say, put the polling aside because they have just so strongly followed polling all cycle long.”at 17:27

Software & SaaS

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.

  AI disruption is driving a SaaS apocalypse-type sell-off, with ServiceNow among names hit.

  Dan says investors feel a SaaS apocalypse, similar to March and April and possibly worse, because capital raises are flooding the market. He lists software disruption at ServiceNow and Fortinet as part of the level of disruption that makes this a gut-check moment, not just a white-knuckle one.

  “SaaS apocalypse type feel going back to, like, March, April, and and maybe even worse just because the capital raises that we're seeing kind of flooding the market.”at 24:29

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.

  AI trade is a gut-check, not a bubble bursting; winners and losers will separate on execution.

  Dan describes a SaaS apocalypse-type feel and a tale of two cities: hyperscaler capex checks out, and Palantir use cases are accelerating. But disruption in memory, Intel, Google advertising and software such as ServiceNow and Fortinet is causing a white-knuckle gut-check. He says this is the start of winners and losers, and the market is entering the next phase where AI talk alone will not raise capital. Patience is wearing thin, so companies that had 12 to 18 months to monetize may now have 6 to 9 months. He believes the fundamentals will prove it out.

  “we're entering, in my view, the next phase where it's not just because you say AI 30 times in your conference call, you could raise capital.”at 25:26

AI chips & semiconductors

• Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co.

  Chip stocks, about 30% off highs, could fall another 10-12%, then perhaps another 10%, before buying.

  Asked how much lower chips could go, with the sector about 30% off its highs, Dan says he thinks another 10 to 12% down, then maybe another 10%. Only then would he start looking at chip names to buy. This is a view on a sector drawdown, not a fundamentals case, and the reasoning is that the valuation gut check is still playing out.

  “I think another 10 to 12% down, I think then we have to maybe Another 10 down. Another 10 to 12% down... and then maybe we start to look at towers.”at 27:53