Speaker · Updated
Mikkel Rosenvold: latest market views
Steno Research (Real Vision)
Summary
Partner and head of geopolitics at Steno Research, which Real Vision acquired in 2025, and co-host of Real Vision's Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno Larsen.
Chorus has 6 views from Mikkel Rosenvold across 3 episodes on Real Vision since October 19, 2026.
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Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Iran is ready for peace with bigger concessions than in summer; Trump earns some credit.
Mikkel cites gradual steps over recent weeks as Iran eases its stance and becomes more willing to negotiate. He argues Iran is legitimately afraid Trump will launch a big attack after the midterms, which he says is almost planned, so it is trying to get a deal in beforehand. He thinks a deal probably won't be done in time for the midterms, but he says the bottom line is Iran is ready for peace, with a deal containing more Iranian concessions than the summer. He credits Trump for finding a way out of a hole, at a huge cost to markets.
“Iran is ready for a peace. They're gonna have much lighter peace deal or a much... A peace deal that contains more concessions from the side than what we have in the summer.”at 3:12
Real Vision: Why the Midterms Matter for Market Liquidity | Macro Mondays: Nov. 2, 2026 ·
Blue wave looks too good to be true; Republicans have a real chance to hold the Senate.
Mikkel says the Senate is where Republicans have a decent or some chance of holding their majority, and Michigan is a state they need. He has seen Rogers gain some momentum, though it is turning around. He is skeptical of the supposed blue wave for Democrats, which seems too good to be true. He also argues a Democratic sweep would have little market impact because it is what everyone expects.
“I'm a little bit skeptical about the blue wave that we're supposedly seeing. It seems a little too good to be true for the democratic side.”at 10:40
Real Vision: Why the Midterms Matter for Market Liquidity | Macro Mondays: Nov. 2, 2026 ·
The lame duck period could be more productive than the past two years, with appropriations and debt ceiling action.
Mikkel notes Trump has passed few major bills beyond the big beautiful bill and a few others, with the rest being appropriations and minor naming bills. He expects the administration to push hard in the lame duck to pass 2027 appropriations, including defense appropriations, and possibly raise the debt ceiling now. That would remove a big obstacle or risk for markets. He says it will be tricky to win over senators like Rand Paul, but Trump has an incentive to act before Democrats take over, and a Democratic sweep would make the next two years very tough.
“I have a feeling that the upcoming lame duck period... could be even more productive than the past two years have been since Donald Trump took off.”at 13:43
Real Vision: Why the Midterms Matter for Market Liquidity | Macro Mondays: Nov. 2, 2026 ·
Falling compute costs could accelerate AI adoption through the Jevons paradox.
Rosenvold argues that if compute prices drop, it is an issue for the providers, but it would trigger the Jevons paradox discussed last year. Cheaper compute could then speed up AI adoption, so falling costs would be net positive for the broader AI theme.
“If compute prices drop, that's obviously an issue for their providers, but that would only trigger the Jevons paradox that we talked a lot about last year. Cost of compute falls, that could even speed up the AI adoption.”at 14:10
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
Israel's election likely yields a hung parliament, and even a Eisenkot win would not shift foreign policy.
Rosenvold expects a hung parliament because neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot will easily build a majority. A coalition between them looks tricky after harsh words in the campaign, and Eisenkot may need Arab parties. Even if Eisenkot forms a government, regional policy should not change much: possible tweaks on the West Bank and Gaza but no major shift on Iran, since Eisenkot backed hitting civilian infrastructure in the war.
“We are expecting a hung parliament... I don't expect, and that's one thing a lot of people get wrong. Even if Eisenkort is able to form a government, we shouldn't expect a flip flop or change of course in the regional policies.”at 22:29
Real Vision: Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays ·
Military drones are a multi-year winner; a war-ending deal would hurt them but not break the case.
Military drones are still tied to the war, so if one or two wars end it should be negative for them. That is not enough to make it a bad case, in Rosenvold's view. He is very long, and believes it will be an incredible case for the coming years. His portfolio is skewed towards robotics and military drones.
“Not enough to make it a bad case in my opinion. I'm very, very long. I believe this is going be an incredible case for the coming years.”at 26:41
Real Vision: Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026 ·
Shows
- Real Vision · 3 episodes
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