Speaker · Updated
Max Kettner: latest market views
HSBC
Summary
Max Kettner is chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC, known for a persistently bullish global equity call since upgrading to overweight in early 2023.
Chorus has 11 views from Max Kettner across 2 episodes on Bloomberg Surveillance and CNBC Closing Bell since October 12, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Anthropic.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AnthropicBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Market swings on the midterms are narrative retrofitting; he was skeptical midterms would clear risk.
The almost 250-point swing from the Asia session into the US session on Wednesday was surprising. The market retrofitted a narrative about why a blue sweep is not that bad, after expecting the midterms to be the risk-clearing event. He and his team were skeptical of that view from the start, so Wednesday's move looked puzzling to them.
“I've been quite surprised, to be honest, about the rips that we had... and that sort of retrofitting of the narrative why the blue sweep isn't really that bad... We've been pretty skeptical about that.”at 36:41
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Fast-money accounts are in full liquidation mode, driving the current selloff.
Yesterday's moves were equally puzzling, but the market is probably in full liquidation mode in terms of fast-money accounts. That forced selling is what is driving the sharp swings rather than fundamentals, which is consistent with his view that the narrative, not the data, is moving prices.
“we're probably more in liquidation mode, full on liquidation mode right now in terms of fast money accounts.”at 37:10
S&P tech now trades at a discount to the overall market after heavy de-rating, limiting contagion risk.
Kettner points to widespread multiple compression since the start of the year, and since May, in both tech and US equities. Many S&P 500 and Nasdaq stocks are now well off their highs. He says S&P tech is cheaper than the overall market, so the damage is largely done. He argues contagion is less likely now than it was three or four months ago because valuations have already been reset.
“We're now cheaper in S and P tech than the overall market. It's trading at a discount... I think we've derated so much now already.”at 38:31
Staples at over 24x earnings versus tech near 16x makes no sense; the defensive rotation will unwind.
Kettner says the market is buying defensive consumer staples as a safe haven, with Costco up almost 25% in a couple of weeks. He cites staples trading above 24 times earnings while tech trades near 16 times. He argues this makes no sense in a world of tariffs and higher energy prices, and that the rotation into low-end-of-the-K consumer exposure will reverse. He frames the open question as one of timing.
“Staples now traded over 24 times earnings and tech trades at what? Almost 16. That doesn't make sense... It's a point of timing now when we unwind that.”at 38:53
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Contrarian sentiment signals are still not triggered; full neutral sentiment is needed before a bull market is confirmed.
Kettner says he needs to see sentiment and positioning reset before reaffirming a bull market. Some of his contrarian signals are still flashing. At a minimum he wants sentiment back to fully neutral, with a couple of bullish-contrarian signals triggering. He reads the broad flush-out and the VIX inversion as capitulation that is a good sign, but he has not yet seen the full reset.
“At the bare minimum, we want a full on neutral sentiment and perhaps a couple of biased signals triggering.”at 42:01
AnthropicBullish
Anthropic should go public now at a reasonable valuation, since AI demand remains strong.
Kettner calls the Anthropic IPO the key near-term event risk for year-end. Asked whether Anthropic should list despite the uncertainty, he says yes, but at a reasonable valuation. He warns that squeezing the primary price could leave the stock falling 20 to 30% on day one. A moderately priced IPO that trades up in secondary trading would, in his view, support sentiment and show that AI demand is still there.
“I definitely would... I would say come to market, but actually make it a reasonable valuation. Don't try to squeeze it out.”at 43:14
Credit and EM risk premia already repriced sharply, setting up better risk sentiment.
Triple-C credit spreads are above 1,000 basis points and trading in distressed territory. Popular EM credit names have sold off 10 to 14 points. Kettner argues this means considerable destruction of multiples and risk premia has already happened across the board. That repricing is the reason sentiment is poor and supports a better setup for risk assets.
“You look at credit. You look at triple c's. They're already trading above 1,000 basis points. They're already trading well in distressed territory.”at 5:27
CNBC Closing Bell: Closing Bell Overtime: Four-Year Anniversary of the Bull 10/12/26 ·
Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth should roughly match Q2, not weaken materially.
A record number of S&P 500 companies have raised guidance just ahead of Q3 earnings, and nominal GDP is tracking 7-8%. Kettner says it makes no sense for earnings to weaken sharply in that setting. He expects Q3 not to be materially weaker than Q2 and possibly to match it, though he concedes the large one-off markups seen in Q2 will not repeat. Sentiment is too negative, which sets up a positive earnings reaction.
“I'd be very, very surprised if q three was materially weaker than q two. We might even match q two.”at 7:02
CNBC Closing Bell: Closing Bell Overtime: Four-Year Anniversary of the Bull 10/12/26 ·
Tactically lean into equal-weight S&P 500 and the broadening theme as bonds calm.
Multiples have compressed across the Nasdaq and S&P 500 under higher yields, and sentiment is too skeptical given record S&P 500 companies raising guidance. If Treasury yields stop spiking, earnings broadening should help. Kettner therefore favours leaning into the equal-weight S&P 500 and playing the broadening theme tactically, beyond semiconductors, into the coming earnings season. The view depends on yields calming.
“So to me, it's a bit leading into leaning into the equal weight S and P again and playing tactically a little bit that broadening theme again.”at 7:20
CNBC Closing Bell: Closing Bell Overtime: Four-Year Anniversary of the Bull 10/12/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Market can't bet on AI capex lifting rates while also doubting AI earnings; the contradiction matters.
Some rates strategists argue AI investment is lifting nominal GDP growth and therefore the structural floor for rates, pushing the 10-year toward 6%. Others say stocks cannot rise because AI is disappointing. Kettner says both cannot hold at once. If AI capex is strong enough to lift the economy's growth and rates, that is a problem for equities, so the bearish arguments are internally inconsistent.
“You can't tell me that AI is so great and AI CapEx are so great, it lifts our star. And at some point, that's gonna be a problem for equities.”at 8:53
CNBC Closing Bell: Closing Bell Overtime: Four-Year Anniversary of the Bull 10/12/26 ·
Fading 2026 fiscal support will bring negative economic surprises in 2027, easing yields.
The US economy has had large cyclical fiscal support this year from tax refunds, tariff refunds and incentives under the One Big Beautiful Bill, which are underestimated by the market. Much of that support will not repeat in 2027. Kettner expects this fiscal impulse to turn negative and produce the first negative economic surprises. That would help yields fall and support risk assets across credit, equities and EM.
“I actually do think that people really, really do underestimate how much cyclical fiscal support we've thrown up on the economy this year in terms of tax refunds, tariff refunds. ... A lot of that fiscal support will not repeat in 2027.”at 9:18
CNBC Closing Bell: Closing Bell Overtime: Four-Year Anniversary of the Bull 10/12/26 ·
Shows
- Bloomberg Surveillance · 1 episode
- CNBC Closing Bell · 1 episode
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