Speaker · Updated
John Kolovos: latest market views
Macro Risk Advisors
Summary
John Kolovos, CMT, CFA, is head of technical strategy at Macro Risk Advisors, a Brandeis adjunct professor, and president of the CMT Association Board of Directors, previously at Lehman Brothers, ISI Group and Fidelity.
Chorus has 6 views from John Kolovos across 2 episodes on CNBC Closing Bell since October 15, 2026. Their latest calls: bearish on VanEck Semiconductor ETF.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- VanEck Semiconductor ETFBearish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
VanEck Semiconductor ETFBearish
The semiconductor ETF has broken down on a double top, pointing to a drop toward about 375.
Kolovos says the SMH broke support at the June and July lows with a breakaway gap, which completes a double-top formation. He reads this as a longer-term trend change in the semiconductor group. The implied downside target is around 375, roughly where the ETF traded during the March lows this year. He calls that the base case for now and says the market must reverse before the view changes. He also calls it a significant breakdown and notes the DRAM ETF may need another leg lower. He links this to the 2018 analogy, where semis peaked in June and declined while the S&P kept making higher highs.
“When you look at the SMH, the downside implication of that is down to around three seventy five, which is approximately where it was trading around the March lows of this year.”at 46:10
CNBC Closing Bell: Closing Bell Overtime: Tech Stocks Plunge Markets Search for A Bottom 11/5/26 ·
Crash risk is elevated; the S&P 500 is likely to fall to about 7,000 and stay capped below 7,725.
Kolovos says the S&P 500 is testing its 200-day moving average and that more damage is likely. Once the June lows break, the next major support is around 7,000, the highest level since January. He expects the tape to struggle beneath 7,725 for the foreseeable future. He does not see today's drop as a run-of-the-mill pullback. His work shows financial conditions are still very tight, and that raises the chance of a market crash. He draws a close parallel to 2018: a midterm election year, a new Fed chair being tested, and semiconductors peaking in June and falling steadily while the S&P made higher highs. He thinks the market is forcing the Fed's and possibly the administration's hand. For a bottom, he wants to see a real capitulation, with VIX near 30-40, a spike in new lows, and a higher pull-call ratio.
“I think the biggest macro risk here is, at least according to my work, that financial conditions are still very very tight. And when that happens, the chance of a market crash are very elevated.”at 48:08
CNBC Closing Bell: Closing Bell Overtime: Tech Stocks Plunge Markets Search for A Bottom 11/5/26 ·
The Fed should not hike; a hike into this selloff would be a disaster.
Kolovos argues that market stress is forcing the Fed's hand. Financial conditions remain very tight, and his 2018 analogy has a new Fed chair being tested. He thinks the market will push the Fed toward not hiking. He says a hike would be a disaster, given the cyclical weakness in semiconductors and the risk of a market crash. Bond yields are well off their highs and oil is falling, so he sees the market rather than the data as the main pressure on policy.
“So I think the market, like I said earlier, I think is really gonna be forcing the Fed's hand here to not hike. If they hike, it'll be a disaster.”at 48:50
CNBC Closing Bell: Closing Bell Overtime: Tech Stocks Plunge Markets Search for A Bottom 11/5/26 ·
S&P 500 breadth is deteriorating and nearing a first sell signal since 2025, raising downside risk.
About 30% of the market is below its 50-day moving average and almost 40% is below its 200-day. The index is about to get a sell signal for the first time in eighteen months. The last sell signals came before the 2025 and 2022 bear markets. Kolovos says this configuration must be taken seriously, as it could precede a deeper decline. A sell signal means volatility and left-tail risk, meaning the probability of a market mistake, are rising.
“The thing that concerns me the most here right now is that the internal trends of the market are starting to deteriorate quite significantly. ... for the first time in eighteen months, we're about ready to get a sell signal with 30% of the market underneath its fifty day moving average.”at 39:45
The 10-year yield's pullback is consolidation, not reversal; it should fall toward 5% before rising again.
The 10-year was projected to peak around 5.15% and has since pulled back, with bearish sentiment, COT data, RSI and some Elliott wave analysis cited. Yesterday's move looked like a selling climax after CPI, and the follow-through decline looks to Kolovos more like a flight to safety than a true reversal in trend or risk sentiment. He expects the consolidation to carry the yield down to about 5% before it moves higher again.
“I'm interpreting that more as a flight to safety than a proper reversal in trend and also in risk sentiment. But for now, I think we have enough of a decline in consolidation to see it work its way down to about 5% before we work our way higher once more.”at 41:38
Semiconductors are lagging the Magnificent Seven since June's speculative peak; oversold ratio risks forced liquidation.
Semiconductors are higher-beta names, so their underperformance is a warning sign. Kolovos uses the ratio of the semiconductor index to the Magnificent Seven, which peaked in June as the speculative peak in technology and has kept falling. The ratio is now testing its 200-day moving average and is oversold on RSI. If the trend continues, he expects forced liquidation across many of those names. A rebound in CoreWeave is encouraging, but the trend needs to reverse.
“What we need to be mindful with the semi trade is that this is more of the higher beta part of the market. ... this ratio peaked back in June. ... What I'm afraid of here is that this trend were to continue, it's gonna create forced liquidation and a lot more of those names.”at 42:09
Shows
- CNBC Closing Bell · 2 episodes
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