Speaker · Updated
David Zervos: latest market views
Jefferies
Summary
David Zervos is chief market strategist at Jefferies and head of the Global Macro Division at Leucadia Asset Management, a former Federal Reserve Board visiting advisor and Brevan Howard and UBS O'Connor portfolio manager known for his macro and Fed commentary.
Chorus has 9 views from David Zervos across 2 episodes on CNBC Closing Bell and CNBC Power Lunch since October 8, 2026.
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Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Treasury market may have peaked; yields could fall much lower once the energy shock fades.
Yields sat about 20 basis points below their early-October highs even after hotter-than-wanted core CPI and strong retail sales and industrial production, which he reads as evidence of positioning rather than fundamentals. He thinks the Treasury market may have put in its highs and that debate will centre on where the energy-driven move ends over the next few months. He hopes that once the conflicts end, the conversation can move to much lower yields. He traces the rise in ten-year yields closely to energy prices. The view is hedged with 'maybe' and 'hopefully'.
“So I think we're getting to a point where maybe the treasury market has put in its highs, and we're gonna find ourselves debating for the next few months where this energy move ends.”at 39:39
CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test 10/21/26 ·
Stocks have proven resilient despite the energy shock and rate reset, and are sitting at record highs.
Despite the energy shock and the swing in the rate path from cuts to hikes, which he calls two very negative headwinds for markets, everything has been incredibly resilient. The market is sitting at a record high. He says there have been about 50 new highs this year and roughly 60 since Trump's first term.
“the most important takeaway from that, from those two very negative headwinds traditionally for markets is that everything's been incredibly resilient.”at 40:51
CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test 10/21/26 ·
Energy shock drives the inflation and rate story; oil could fall back toward $60 once conflict ends.
He says WTI is up almost 80% since February 27 and that this shock reset the Fed's expected path from 50 basis points of cuts to 50 basis points of hikes. He argues the whole inflation and yield story traces back to energy. Back-month oil prices hitting new highs makes him think the energy risk is more persistent. If the conflict ends, he expects energy to pull back and oil to return to around $60, the level seen early in the year, though he concedes this may be too optimistic.
“we're talking about, you know, 60 oil again, which is where we were at the early part of the year, and then all this discussion goes away.”at 41:38
CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test 10/21/26 ·
Headline inflation is an energy story; underlying core trend measures are in the low twos and falling.
He says the hot core CPI print, up to 2.6% from 2.4%, is noise against a broader trend. Trend-mean CPI measures and most core gauges are in the low twos, with core PCE the exception at around 3%. These measures have been trending down for well over a year or two. He argues the headline surge comes from the energy shock, not from underlying inflation pressure.
“the trend mean CPIs, all these core numbers are basically, with the exception of core PC[E], which still sits at around three, are all in the low twos.”at 42:03
CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test 10/21/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Slower hyperscaler debt issuance has reduced duration supply and helped pull Treasury yields lower.
He says hyperscaler issuance has slowed, and the market noticed. Debt issuance by these companies had been sucking duration out of the market, and that supply pressure is now easing. He ties this to the recent 20-basis-point drop in ten-year yields. He also links the drop to a shift in debate toward the long-run disinflationary effect of superintelligence. He attributes much of the recent move lower in yields to less crowding out from issuance.
“that has been sucked out of the market by all of that debt issuance and the optimism that these companies bring by putting their balance sheets on the line to make these bets on building compute.”at 43:15
CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test 10/21/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Big AI companies levering their balance sheets to build compute is a great story with no systemic risk.
He argues that the companies building AI compute are at the forefront of technology, are making large amounts of money, and are willing to put their balance sheets and senior secured debt on the line to build and compete on compute. He cites the Treasury secretary's view that there is no systemic risk in this build-out. He expects AI to deliver services such as legal, travel, medical and financial services to phones at 10 to 30 times better and ultimately cheaper. Debt-funded buildout is therefore a positive story in his view.
“These are companies that are on the forefront of technology, making tons of money that are willing to put their balance sheets, their senior secured part of their capital structure, their debt on the line.”at 44:50
CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test 10/21/26 ·
Global yield rise reflects central banks resetting rate paths, not a change in long-run inflation views.
Zervos argues the rise in yields is a global phenomenon, not US-specific, driven largely by central banks responding to persistent headline inflation by no longer looking through it and resetting the expected path of short-term real rates. He supports this by noting breakevens and long-run survey inflation expectations have not moved much, and that the US has performed relatively well against Germany, France, Italy and Japan. He expects yields to come down once oil prices fall, arguing current real yields are high by historical standards and have room to fall, which would help rate-sensitive sectors. He concedes some of the rise is also driven by strong demand for capital tied to AI technologies.
“there's a global shift higher in yields, and this has come largely from central banks that are responding to the inflation and the persistence of that headline inflation number.”at 3:06
CNBC Power Lunch: Investing Outside Big Tech, Oil Prices Rally, Powering AI Infrastructure 10/8/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
AI-driven capital demand is pushing up real rates, and that demand is a positive sign.
Zervos sees strong demand to invest in AI technologies as one reason real global rates are rising, alongside central bank policy resets. He interprets that demand for capital positively: top US companies are willing to put their balance sheets on the line to bet on future US growth. He says this is a sign of confidence in growth rather than a source of inflation.
“There's a demand to invest in the technologies that everybody's excited about in what we now call [AI], and that is putting pressure on global real rates.”at 5:09
CNBC Power Lunch: Investing Outside Big Tech, Oil Prices Rally, Powering AI Infrastructure 10/8/26 ·
US economy has proven resilient to rate and oil shocks, a key story of 2026.
Zervos says the biggest macro surprise of the year is how resilient the US economy has been to two large shocks: a roughly 100 basis point swing in rate expectations from two cuts priced to two hikes, and oil rising from about $60 to over $100. He says that in February few investors would have predicted record stock highs and roughly 15% year-to-date gains under those conditions. He concludes the economy can hang tough through an extended energy shock, and hopes for another 5-15% S&P rise with lower rates and energy prices, though he presents that as a hope rather than a forecast.
“The biggest surprise this year for the macro world was how resilient The US economy was to the shocks that hit it.”at 6:37
CNBC Power Lunch: Investing Outside Big Tech, Oil Prices Rally, Powering AI Infrastructure 10/8/26 ·
Shows
- CNBC Closing Bell · 1 episode
- CNBC Power Lunch · 1 episode
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