Speaker · Updated
Chris Vermeulen: latest market views
The Technical Traders
Summary
Chris Vermeulen is the founder and chief market strategist of The Technical Traders, a technical analyst and trader active in markets since 1997, and author of 'Technical Trading Mastery – 7 Steps to Win with Logic' and 'Asset Revesting'.
Chorus has 24 views from Chris Vermeulen across 2 episodes on The David Lin Report since October 16, 2026. Their latest calls: bearish on Alphabet, Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq-100 ETF) and iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AlphabetBearish ·
- Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq-100 ETF)Bearish ·
- iShares U.S. Real Estate ETFBearish ·
What they talk about most
- US stock market outlook · 7
- Gold & precious metals · 2
- Market sentiment, positioning & volatility · 2
- Oil & fuels · 2
- US Treasuries & yields · 2
- US housing · 2
- AI bubble & tech valuations · 1
- AI chips & semiconductors · 1
- Alphabet · 1
- Banks · 1
- Canada, Australia & other developed economies · 1
- Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq-100 ETF) · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Semiconductor charts show institutional distribution and a topping pattern, though a flush-out could still spark a rally.
On the SMH semiconductor ETF chart, Vermeulen uses on-balance volume to argue that big institutional selling has replaced accumulation. Shares have been breaking down on heavy red volume, and the on-balance volume line broke and then rose into a 'kiss goodbye', which he reads as a topping phase before a potentially very large unwind. He cites Goldman Sachs reporting record hedge-fund selling of tech in October as confirmation. He is not fully bearish, though. He thinks the current move could be a flush-out, and that semiconductors could then rally about 50% from here, so the setup is a major distribution top that might still shake out before any upside.
“So you have a topping phase. The market breaks down. It comes up and kinda kisses it goodbye for one last move and then potentially unwinds in a very big way.”at 4:42
The David Lin Report: Tech Bloodbath Now: Is Bubble Pop Finally Happening? | Chris Vermeulen ·
AlphabetBearish
Google's heavy AI spending is hurting its core search business, which is why its shares were hit hard.
Vermeulen describes Google as one of the top AI spenders, with that spending now cutting into its core search revenue. He argues this double hit explains why the stock fell so hard after its earnings miss. He ties it to a broader pattern of investor frustration, where the market is punishing companies that spend heavily on AI without showing profits yet. In his view, Google is a clear example of AI capex damaging the rest of the business, which makes the spending more of a liability than an asset in the market's eyes.
“They're, like, one of the top spenders on AI, and they're spending it on AI, which is killing their search revenue, which is why they've got hit so hard.”at 5:25
The David Lin Report: Tech Bloodbath Now: Is Bubble Pop Finally Happening? | Chris Vermeulen ·
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Record margin debt is causing forced liquidation, since a 10% index drop means roughly 20% losses for two-times margin users.
Vermeulen says brokerage margin balances are at record levels, and margin calls are starting. Many investors use two-times leverage, so a 10% fall in the market means roughly 20% losses for them, and many individual stocks and sectors have fallen 30% to 50%. He sees forced liquidation, with leveraged investors being margin-called and selling into the drop, as a major driver of the current selling. This unwinding of leverage is why he expects a sharp flush-out, and it is a key reason why he thinks the current move could be a capitulation rather than the start of a sustained bear market.
“I think we're starting to get into margin calls. I mean, we have record margin levels for brokerage accounts. And if the stock market is down 10%, that means people are down 20% because a lot of people use two times margin.”at 8:07
The David Lin Report: Tech Bloodbath Now: Is Bubble Pop Finally Happening? | Chris Vermeulen ·
Nasdaq is still in a bull market, and a flush-out could carry it to about 35,000 before any deeper break.
Vermeulen's technical read is that the major trend is still up, because the market rallies, pulls back, and rallies again. The Nasdaq is still well above the year's opening level, so it would need to fall another 10% before the year turned negative. Although the semiconductor leaders are dropping sharply, their chart patterns still look strong. He thinks today's selling could be a flush-out, a shakeout, or margin-driven rebalancing that clears the way for the Nasdaq to run up toward about 35,000, with semiconductors potentially moving 50% higher from here. He is not shorting, because the market is still in a bull trend. He waits for a new uptrend before getting back in.
“This could just be a flush out. This just could be a shakeout... we could go and see the Nasdaq run all the way up to about [35,000].”at 10:13
The David Lin Report: Tech Bloodbath Now: Is Bubble Pop Finally Happening? | Chris Vermeulen ·
AI resembles the Internet bubble: valuations are stretched and spending far exceeds profits so far.
Vermeulen compares AI to the late-1990s Internet bubble. Like that bubble, AI has produced a euphoric, feeding-frenzy phase in which prices are a little overvalued. Companies are spending heavily on AI but are not yet turning that spending into large profits. Investors are now scrutinising earnings, and he argues that companies that do not clearly beat expectations will struggle. He notes the Internet, though it changed the world, took five to ten years to become a big business, and the 2000 bubble took two and a half to three years to unwind, so the path is likely long even if the technology is transformative.
“it's not turning into a profit at this point... I think AI is kind of in the similar space as we saw back in the Internet bubble.”at 12:33
The David Lin Report: Tech Bloodbath Now: Is Bubble Pop Finally Happening? | Chris Vermeulen ·
Warns a major bear market and possibly a huge financial crisis may be starting, though the trend is not yet confirmed.
Vermeulen argues the current selloff could be the first week of a major unwinding of AI stocks and the wider market. He compares it to 2008, when prices fell fast week after week, and says news travels faster today, so a decline could be abrupt and sharp. He notes that no traditional investment method survives a bear market, and that the market has been moving down since trend-following exits were triggered. He is careful about timing, though. He says the big trend still points up, that the drop is a controlled pullback inside a larger bull market, and that the bear case needs more proof, such as a breakdown and retail investors selling, before it is confirmed.
“overall, I do think we're gonna have a huge financial crisis. The question is when all of this resets, when we see the AI space start to unwind, maybe this week is week one of the unwinding of a of a major bear market.”at 16:30
The David Lin Report: Tech Bloodbath Now: Is Bubble Pop Finally Happening? | Chris Vermeulen ·
Expects Monday to gap sharply lower on overseas trading, then a short-term capitulation bottom and rebound.
Vermeulen expects a sharp gap lower when markets open Monday, because traders in other time zones who could not act on Friday's selloff will exit positions. He points to a spiking VIX and put/call ratio as evidence of fear, and to margin calls and forced liquidation as the source of the pressure. He expects a sharp drop in the morning, complete panic, and then a rebound later in the day or the week that puts in a short-term capitulation washout low. He is not calling a durable bottom, only a short-term low after an extreme selloff.
“I have a feeling we'll see it open. I think it'll gap sharply lower on Monday.”at 19:17
The David Lin Report: Tech Bloodbath Now: Is Bubble Pop Finally Happening? | Chris Vermeulen ·
Gold has entered a bear market and could fall about 20% more, to roughly $3,132, before bottoming.
Gold has cleanly broken below the $4,000 level, which Vermeulen calls a very clean support that is now failing. Technically, gold did not enter a bear market until about June, but the decline has been very fast. He says charts usually take several months to confirm a new bear market, yet gold has moved quickly. He expects a further roughly 20% drop, to about $3,132 (the transcript reads $313,200, which appears to be a transcription error), before a bottom forms. He also expects gold and silver to keep selling off over the next few weeks. Today's drop reflects traders who bought near $4,000 being stopped out and forced margin selling, and that the low is probably much lower.
“And to me, gold is in a bear market... And now we're in a bear market, and, you know, it is pointing to about [$3,132] for gold. It's another 20% down from here, before it puts in a bottom.”at 23:34
The David Lin Report: Tech Bloodbath Now: Is Bubble Pop Finally Happening? | Chris Vermeulen ·
Money is rotating out of tech into dividend stocks, utilities, staples and health care, not leaving equities.
Vermeulen points to dividend stocks rocketing higher while the broader market falls. This explains why there is no panic selling: money is moving from one group of stocks to another rather than leaving equities for cash. Defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, health care and real estate are rising, while energy is up because oil is rising. Institutional advisers and hedge funds cannot simply sell to cash because of their rules, so they move from volatile tech into these lower-volatility sectors. The rotation, rather than an exit from the market, is why the market's panic gauge has not spiked.
“money is not just really exiting the stock market. It's actually just shifting... to other sectors.”at 27:46
The David Lin Report: Tech Bloodbath Now: Is Bubble Pop Finally Happening? | Chris Vermeulen ·
Ten-year yields are in a bull market and will keep rising on oil-driven inflation before eventually falling.
Vermeulen expects yields to keep climbing as long as Middle East tensions persist. Rising oil prices would revive inflation concerns, which would keep yields elevated or push them higher. Higher yields give investors a safe return of 5% or 6% from cash and bonds, which draws money away from expensive tech and stocks. He expects that eventually mortgage rates and yields will fall as the Fed tries to support the economy, but he thinks that would need a much weaker stock market and broader public selling first. Current yield momentum and inflation risk therefore point higher in the near term.
“The rates, I think, are still gonna work their way higher. I think we're in a bull market when it comes to the ten year yield.”at 28:17
The David Lin Report: Tech Bloodbath Now: Is Bubble Pop Finally Happening? | Chris Vermeulen ·
Middle East attacks are pushing oil higher, which should fuel inflation concerns and keep yields elevated.
Vermeulen links ongoing attacks in the Middle East to a sharp oil rally today. He argues that if the chaos continues or worsens, oil should keep rising, which would create inflation concerns and push up yields. Higher yields would then act as a headwind for both gold and equities. He sees this as a chain of effects from geopolitics to oil to inflation to yields, though he does not give a specific oil price forecast. The argument depends on the conflict persisting.
“We're hearing attacks. You know, today, we're seeing oil [pop] and rally. Think we're gonna see oil go up, which is going to cause inflation concerns, potentially inflate more inflation.”at 28:32
The David Lin Report: Tech Bloodbath Now: Is Bubble Pop Finally Happening? | Chris Vermeulen ·
Ten-year yields have not peaked; the recent bond bounce is a countertrend rally within a downtrend.
Asked whether bond yields have peaked, he says no. The ten-year pulled back to about a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement after a breakout and multi-year highs, which he reads as a measured-move pullback before higher yields. He says the bond bounce is only an oversold countertrend rally: moving averages slope down and the chart makes lower highs and lower lows. He expects bonds to be sold into and yields to head higher again. He notes the monthly ten-year chart still points to a multi-month rally in yields.
“These are just short term pullbacks... I think yields are still gonna go a whole lot higher because the trend is still up. Bonds are in a clear downtrend.”at 4:19
The David Lin Report: Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen ·
Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq-100 ETF)Bearish
Nasdaq trend has turned down; he exited QQQ and QLD and expects further tech downside.
His Nasdaq strategy has turned to a downtrend, which he says means money is flowing out of technology. His stops triggered, so he sold QQQ and QLD and locked in profits. The trend change is the reason for the exit, not a change in the long-term view. He says QQQ is at a 50% retracement and a pivot low, and a close below about $660 could take it to about $555. The transcript reads $5.55, which is likely $555. He says the strategy signals avoiding technology stocks for now.
“We're actually now have a negative trend, a trend down for the Nasdaq, meaning you don't wanna hold technology stocks at all right now.”at 11:43
The David Lin Report: Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen ·
The S&P 500 remains on a buy signal even though the Nasdaq has turned down.
He says his strategy still gives the S&P 500 a buy signal even after exiting the Nasdaq. The exit is about protecting profits in tech, not a broad market call. He is still long the S&P 500. He points to equal-weight S&P strength and money flowing into defensive sectors as the reason the broad market is moving up.
“And so the S and P five hundred is still in a buy signal.”at 11:50
The David Lin Report: Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen ·
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Leverage turns a 25% pullback into a 50-75% wipeout for aggressive traders using margin.
He says most traders use margin at two to one or three to one, and some use leveraged ETFs. In that setup, a 25% pullback is effectively a 50-75% crash for them. Leverage amplifies stress and shakes traders out during drawdowns, so buying the dip with leverage is dangerous even when the market eventually recovers.
“most people are using margin, usually two to one, three to one, and sometimes they're using leveraged ETF. So a 25% pullback is like a 50 to 75% crash for a lot of aggressive traders.”at 17:27
The David Lin Report: Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen ·
Utilities and staples rallies are temporary bounces inside downtrends; charts are unattractive.
He says utilities are in a bear market: their long-term moving average is falling, price is below it, and they are making lower highs. Recent gains are a temporary bounce. Consumer staples are up strongly, but their chart is not attractive. He says buying into sectors in downtrends means being pulled down by the trend, so he is not buying the defensive rotation.
“utilities are in a bear market. They have been dramatically out of favor. They're trending lower. This is, again, just a temporary bounce.”at 19:57
The David Lin Report: Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen ·
Health care is the one sector bucking the trend, with a bullish bull-flag breakout and rising averages.
He says health care is the only sector that has been bucking the trend, helped by biotech and strong health stocks. Its chart shows a bull flag breaking out, with all moving averages sloping up and price above the long-term average. He says this is a strong uptrend where money is flowing, so it is the sector he prefers over utilities and staples.
“You know, health care actually looks pretty good. It's got a bull flag. It's breaking out. All the moving averages are sloping up.”at 20:27
The David Lin Report: Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen ·
Gold and silver are in a bear market; he expects gold to fall to $3,100 before buying.
Gold's long-term moving average is sloping down and price is below all the moving averages, which he calls a stage-four decline, i.e. a bear market. Silver is in the same position. He says gold is not an asset to hold for wealth growth right now, though it still works as insurance against currency and government failure. The charts still point to $3,100 for gold and $39 for silver, so he plans to buy gold at $3,600 and more at $3,100, and silver as it drops to similar levels. He treats a fall to those levels as a measured-move buying opportunity.
“Price in all of the moving averages are below it. That's the definition of a stage four decline, a bear market.”at 23:26
The David Lin Report: Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen ·
Oil is unfolding as expected, with targets of $107 then about $120 while Middle East tensions persist.
His oil chart shows a first rally, a pullback, and a 100% measured move. He says this gives two new targets, the previous high near $107 and then another previous high near $119-120. He believes the Middle East problem is here to stay for a long time and oil will drift higher. Oil will not sell off until a recession or economic slowdown breaks demand. He also notes that higher oil tends to push the ten-year yield higher and bonds lower.
“So we're looking for oil to move up to one zero seven and then potentially up to about one one twenty to the upside.”at 25:13
The David Lin Report: Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen ·
Canada, Australia & other developed economies
Canadian housing faces a big correction, with at least a 20% price drop from current levels.
He has argued for about a year that real estate will see a very big downturn. Canadian rates are lower than US rates, but he expects mortgage rates to keep rising. If the economy weakens and layoffs follow, the housing momentum will end. Sellers are holding out because they are not under enough financial pressure, while offers come in 10-20% lower. Once pressure builds, sellers will capitulate and the decline will cascade. He sees the correction as a buying opportunity for those with cash, but says it is still early.
“I believe the real estate market is going to have a very big downturn. I think we're gonna see at least a 20% drop in real estate from where we are for the current pricing.”at 30:34
The David Lin Report: Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen ·
iShares U.S. Real Estate ETFBearish
REITs are not bear proof and can drop 60-80% in a bear market, more than stocks.
He warns that people who invest in REITs, naming IYR, would see drawdowns of 60-80% in a bear market. He says REITs are not bear proof and drop much more than the broader stock market. This is the reason he tells people to avoid assuming real estate will be safe during a housing correction.
“But, I mean, if you're invested in REITs, like IYR or some of those, they drop, like, 60, 70, 80% during a bear market.”at 31:13
The David Lin Report: Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen ·
US home prices have large downside risk, as US real estate is more volatile than Canada's.
He recalls Florida homes before the 2008 crisis selling for about $550k, with his parents later buying the same house for about $175k after the crash. He says the US market is much more volatile in real estate pricing than Canada, and that there is a lot of downside potential in US homes. He says Canadian weakness is being swept under the rug, and that US downside is larger. He also says the banking sector and mortgage access will be hit if the economy weakens.
“There's a lot of downside potential for some of this in The States. The States is much more volatile when it comes to real estate pricing.”at 34:01
The David Lin Report: Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen ·
Banks will be hit hard if the housing market and economy collapse.
He argues that if the market and economy collapse, banks are the ones holding the bag on mortgages and property losses. He expects the financial and banking sector to be annihilated again. He says banks will try to push losses onto investors or the public, and that mortgage access will get harder in a downturn.
“if everything starts to collapse, the banks are the ones holding all, like, the bag. And so we're gonna see the financial and the banking sector get absolutely annihilated again.”at 35:49
The David Lin Report: Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen ·
Housing prices will fall as banks tighten mortgage lending and job losses spread.
Chris argues that banks are financially stressed after losing large sums in the market decline, so they tighten mortgage standards and demand strong income and credit. He ties this to job losses, saying most people are losing their jobs and the housing trends are all down. From this he concludes that prices are cheaper in the downturn and that tighter lending makes the housing market better for buyers. The argument is loosely reasoned and partly contradictory, and the mortgage advice that follows is personal-finance guidance rather than analysis.
“Prices are cheaper, but banks are stressed financially... Problem is most people are losing their jobs. And so the trends are all down.”at 36:31
The David Lin Report: Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen ·
Shows
- The David Lin Report · 2 episodes
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