Washington Weekly Podcast: Election Day countdown, Geopolitics, Fraud awareness

Shane Lieberman · UBS

House very likely to flip to Democrats, based on campaign money moving between races.

Polls are tightening, but Lieberman treats campaign money as a better signal than polls for races without polling. Money is moving away from seats where Republicans hoped to pick up or defend close races toward seats where Republicans were expected to win but need extra support. A major Republican super PAC stopped spending in a New Jersey race with a Republican incumbent, which he reads as a sign the Republican is expected to lose. That race moved from toss-up to lean Democratic. He concludes the House is very likely to go to Democrats, with the Senate less clear.

“So all of that is, at least for the House, definitely showing that the house is very likely to go to the democrats.”at 3:01

Shane Lieberman · UBS

Senate control remains cloudy as Senate races tighten to statistical ties.

Lieberman says the Senate is harder to call than the House. Michigan's Senate race is a genuine toss-up, with nearly every poll inside the margin of error. In Texas, a Democratic candidate who had recently held a wider lead is now in a near statistical tie in the latest polls. Money has also moved away from North Carolina, which Democrats had slated as a pickup for weeks or months. He describes the Senate as tightening, so control is uncertain.

“I think it's tightening in the senate”at 3:37

Shane Lieberman · UBS

US pressure on Ukraine to join talks will weaken Ukraine's negotiating position.

Lieberman reads the recent US moves as tilting toward Russia while pressuring Ukraine. Congress passed a tough Russia sanctions bill, but President Trump waived part of it. Steve Witkoff's Russia trip led to the release of a US citizen held for four years, and the US waived sanctions on Russian diesel. Meanwhile Trump took a hard line on Zelenskyy, and Starlink, which is critical to Ukraine's missile defence, went down before Russian missile attacks on Kyiv. He sees this as pressure on both sides to return to peace talks, and says Ukraine's stance will be weaker in those negotiations because of that pressure. Peace talks are expected in the coming weeks and months.

“I think there is concern about... the pressure on Ukraine to come to the table is also meaning that Ukraine will be weakened in a negotiating stance.”at 6:20