Is The Bottom Now In For Gold & Silver Prices? | Andy Schectman

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 79 speakers in other episodes, 23 bullish and 84 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious MetalsBearish

  CoreWeave's bonds, stock and founder selling signal distress; a data-centre restructuring is coming.

  Andy cites CoreWeave as evidence that the AI data-centre buildout is under financial strain. He points to its bonds trading at 80 cents on the dollar, its stock down 60%, and founders who have sold billions of dollars in shares. He links this to Adam's point about power constraints and says the realisation that the sector did not prepare well enough will hit the data-centre side. He expects a large restructuring, which he describes as a reset in the sector.

  “you're beginning to see it in companies like CoreWeave, these AI data center builders that their bonds are trading at 80¢ on the dollar and stock has lost 60% and their founders have sold billions of dollars in shares.”at 52:16

Gold & precious metals

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  Record central bank and Chinese gold buying shows official sector accumulation is strong and underreported.

  China imported almost 1,100 metric tons of gold in the first eight months of the year, a record pace. With September's roughly 750,000 ounces added, it was its 23rd straight month of accumulation. Annualized, that would be the highest in over a decade. Central banks are also buying at levels that are nearly unrivaled. Andy argues that official figures from the IMF, World Gold Council and Goldman Sachs understate the true buying, since Chinese imports through proxies such as the PLA or commercial banks are not reported, and that this matters given China's position as a top producer.

  “We've seen China import record sums in the first eight months over almost 1,100 metric tons.”at 4:31

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  The US is likely quietly accumulating gold by proxy via the Exchange Stabilization Fund, though he's unsure.

  Andy argues that the US government has been accumulating gold through commercial banks and COMEX accounts so it does not appear on the Treasury's balance sheet. He points to executive order 14241, which classified gold as a critical mineral for national security, and to the Exchange Stabilization Fund, which he says can act without congressional approval. He cites the record gold stood for delivery in COMEX in 2026 as evidence. He explicitly hedges that he does not know this to be fact and that it could instead be large, well-informed players taking physical delivery.

  “I could be way off base on this, I've said this, if I had to guess, it has been the West that has been suppressing the price because they realized they were behind the eight ball”at 10:40

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  Gold is very oversold and near its bottom, with $4,000 likely a floor; ultimately much higher.

  Gold is very oversold and has reached significant technical resistance levels. Andy cites the Richard Russell rule that a 50% retracement after a blow-off top is normal, and says the froth has been flushed out. He takes $4,000 as the long-standing resistance that is now a floor, and notes gold was back above it. He hedges that it could still fall further or be a dead-cat bounce. He argues that the sovereign and institutional accumulation at these prices shows that price is not the ultimate consideration, and that he expects prices to go much higher over time.

  “yeah, if I had to guess, we're very close to the bottom and, but the big money accumulating it tells you that prices is not the ultimate consideration.”at 12:15

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  Yuan-settled gold contracts and gold settlement rails will erode Western price-setting and drive prices higher.

  Hong Kong has launched a live settlement system using tokenized central bank money, now extended to 400-ounce gold bars that banks can trade and settle digitally, turning vaulted gold into financial collateral. Andy links this to BRICS-aligned payment rails and vaults in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Singapore, Shanghai, Mumbai, Moscow and St. Petersburg that run parallel to SWIFT. He argues gold will be used to settle imbalances, citing large flows out of COMEX to China. He says once China prices gold in yuan with same-day settlement, arbitrage through physical delivery will drain Western vaults and end the relevance of Western price-setting.

  “when the Chinese start pricing gold contracts in Yuan for same day settlement, the game is over.”at 19:04

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  Hedge funds have flipped from long to short while commercial banks are long, pointing to a price turn.

  Andy notes that COMEX open interest is at its lowest in a long time, and that managed money longs are at their lowest in 52 weeks. Since July, hedge funds have moved from being heavily long to being heavily short. Commercial banks are on the long side, which he reads as informed positioning. He expects the price to turn around because speculative traders have been driven out and the market is oversold. He argues that the sharp margin increases and selling were used to discourage speculative buying.

  “Big short. Who's long? The commercial banks, the ones that probably know where the puck is going. You're gonna see the price turn around”at 31:31

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  COMEX paper trading and rehypothecation suppress gold and silver prices far beyond physical supply.

  Andy argues that the price of gold and silver is held down by paper claims. Silver trades about 400 million ounces a day on COMEX, roughly half of annual global mine output of 800 million ounces, and he says trading runs over 200 times the deliverable physical supply. He cites David Jensen's point that London's unallocated claims operate on the assumption that few will stand for delivery. He attributes the suppression to rehypothecation, which he says has let the West control prices and keep gold cheap, possibly to serve Gibson's paradox or military-industrial needs. He sees this as the reason prices have diverged from the value implied by physical flows.

  “It is the rehypothecation of this market that has enabled the West to control these prices forever.”at 35:47

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  Paper pricing suppresses gold; same-day yuan settlement will bring real price discovery and higher prices.

  Andy argues that gold and silver prices are controlled through paper positioning. He points to the COMEX market, which sets the price together with London, and says rehypothecated pricing that only exists in the West masks gold's real value. He suspects both metals breaking key psychological levels on the same day was not a coincidence. He expects this to change once real pricing exists in another currency with same-day settlement, such as the yuan through Shanghai and Hong Kong. He thinks that could happen in the first quarter, which he presents as a likely development rather than a certainty.

  “So much of this is controlled. So much of it is paper positioning and that is gonna change when I believe you start to see real pricing in another currency for same day settlement.”at 39:12

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  Gold will go higher as sovereigns buy regardless of price and money supply is inflated away.

  Andy argues that the Global South and other sovereign buyers are accumulating gold in a price-inelastic way. They keep buying more as the price falls, so the recent dip reflects accumulation rather than a genuine loss of demand. Andy adds that the only way out of the debt situation is to inflate away the money supply through financial repression, and that holding assets such as gold is how to survive it. He expects the price to rise on that basis, though he gives no target or timeframe.

  “But yeah, I think the price will go higher. Look, there is no other way out of this, but to inflate away the money supply, financial repression and holding assets is the only way to survive.”at 40:26

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  Gold has priced in the election's fiscal-spending risk and would rise much higher if allowed to trade freely.

  Andy links the post-election rise in precious metals to expectations of higher government spending under a more left-leaning Congress. He thinks gold has already sniffed out this risk. He argues that if gold were allowed to trade freely, it would be much higher. He is hedged on this: he notes that such knee-jerk reactions can go up as fast as they go down, so the move may not last.

  “I think the gold definitely has sniffed that out. And look, the bottom line is simply this, that if gold will be allowed to trade freely, it would be much, much higher.”at 57:48

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  Bullion coin premiums, starting with American Eagles, are rising from unusually soft levels.

  Schectman says premiums on American coins like the Eagles have started climbing again, and that they tend to lead the market. He describes the rise as considerable within a single week. He says premiums across the board are still far too soft relative to where he thinks they should be, because retail buying has been polarised: people either keep buying heavily or not at all. Business is still strong compared with pre-2020 levels but well below the last four years. He expects retail buyers to refocus on the big picture and return, which would push premiums up further.

  “Premiums on the American coins like the Eagles are starting to climb higher again all of a sudden, just like that. ... premiums across the board in my mind are far too soft to where they should be.”at 1:16:55

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  Pre-1965 junk silver trading below melt value is a rare anomaly he is hedging and buying heavily.

  Schectman says he has seen pre-1965 junk silver dimes and quarters sell below spot only about 1% of the time in his 37 years in the business, calling it an anomaly and a strong value. He bought as much as he could because he can hedge the metal content, so with the coins bought below melt value, he sees no price risk in holding them, only the cost of capital. He expects anomalies like this to work themselves out, and says he has almost $100,000 in face value in stock. He also cites a pandemic period when he paid $9 to $10 over spot to buy back silver, to show how unusual the current discount is.

  “I've seen premiums or retail prices on junk silver dimes and quarters below spot maybe 1% of the time. It's an anomaly. It's a hell of a value. So I bought everything I could knowing I could hedge it.”at 1:18:01

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  Recent precious metals price drop is not fundamentals-driven; he sees the bigger picture as bullish.

  Schectman argues that the recent fall in gold and silver prices reflects price action alone. He says nothing fundamental has changed in the last few months, and that fundamentals are getting worse. He believes the biggest money, which he identifies as central banks and whoever is trading on COMEX, is signalling where prices are going, and that the sell-off has made the market look weak to people who focus on the minute-by-minute moves. He hedges his view by saying the outcome should be watched over time, so he is not making a firm timing call.

  “...if you look at the last few months, sure, price has gone down. Fundamentals, what has changed other than the price? Nothing. Fundamentals are getting worse.”at 1:19:42

US dollar

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  Rising gold would devalue the dollar and let the US pay down debt through gold revaluation.

  Andy argues that a rising gold price would devalue the dollar, whether it happens through presidential revaluation or organically. He points to the Treasury's balance sheet, where gold is still valued at about $4,222 an ounce. As the market price rises, every $4,000 increase would give the Treasury General Account about $1 trillion in value, which would make it easier to pay down debt. He frames this as financial repression that lets the country re-industrialise and makes assets look larger relative to liabilities.

  “And all of a sudden every $4,000 increase in the price of gold gives the treasury general account 1,000,000,000,000 free and clear.”at 48:25

US deficit & government debt

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  Government spending irresponsibility, not capitalism, is damaging the US, and both parties spend badly.

  Andy argues that fiscal irresponsibility, not capitalism, is what has damaged the country. He says both Republicans and Democrats spend money badly, and that blue states have spent worse than red states. He links a shift toward socialist policies to lower productivity, weaker infrastructure and a smaller tax base. He presents this as an argument against heavy government spending, and it is mainly a political view with limited data.

  “It is fiscal irresponsibility to your point. And whether it's red or blue, they all are stupid in the way that they spend money.”at 56:57

Cybersecurity

• Andy Schectman · Miles Franklin Precious Metals

  AI-enabled hacks are a growing threat; digital finance is outpacing its security defences.

  Andy argues that AI is becoming a serious hacking threat. He cites the Polymarket incident, where malicious code drained users' positions and assets through a third-party service, and a hack of a Philadelphia 76ers scoreboard. He says the financial system is becoming very digital while AI is outpacing IT sophistication. He points to JPMorgan spending about $1 billion a year on IT security and asks what that means for smaller firms. He expects it to become a serious problem.

  “I think that AI is becoming something that is very concerning. They hack a poly market...”at 1:04:09